Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant. After the departure of the previous main long - position holders, the lead price is still oscillating within a wide range. Given the recent weak performance of major global financial assets, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.31% at 17,165 yuan/ton, with a total single - sided trading position of 75,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 17.5 to 1,997.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,075 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17] - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total global lead ore production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Material Inventory and Output**: At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's recycled lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33] - **Net Exports and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16,145,200 units, and the net export weight of batteries was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43] - **Inventory Changes**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand provide support for domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - **Overseas Balance**: In August 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton [71] - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton [74] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [77] - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead turned to a large net short position. The net long position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bearish [80]

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight decline, influenced by supply shortages and demand dynamics in the battery sector [1][2] Supply Summary - Lead concentrate shortages are causing many electrolytic lead enterprises to resume production at lower-than-expected levels, although imports of crude lead and lead concentrate are anticipated to increase, gradually resolving raw material issues [1] - The recovery of recycled lead production is contributing to a slow return to balance in the overall supply [1] Demand Summary - The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has been increasing as maintenance and production halts due to high lead prices are lifted, but terminal consumption in the automotive battery market remains weak, leading to cautious purchasing by dealers [1] Inventory Summary - As of November 17, LME lead inventory reached 266,100 tons, an increase of 43,700 tons (19.62%) from the previous day, with a cumulative increase of 63,900 tons (31.61%) over the past week and 15,700 tons (6.28%) over the past month [1] Market Outlook - The high lead prices are causing downstream reluctance, while smelters are expected to increase output due to favorable profit margins. The pressure from inventory accumulation is significant, with both domestic and international fundamentals weakening [2] - Short-term expectations suggest a potential decline towards the cost support level, with a focus on the 60-day moving average support at 17,100 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the delivery of the SHFE Lead 2511 contract ended, some supplies returned to the spot market. With general downstream consumption and production based on sales, short - term lead prices are expected to face downward pressure. Considering the continuous shortage of raw materials, it may limit the subsequent start - up of smelters. Attention should be paid to the support level around 17,000 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter start - up [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.01% month - on - month to 17,425 yuan/ton; SHFE lead main contract closing price rose by 0.43% to 17,495 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.03% to 2,066 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 Basis There is no specific analysis or conclusion about the basis in the content other than presenting some basis - related data charts. 3.3 Raw Material Situation - Domestic lead concentrate processing fees remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fees remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remains unchanged, and with precious metal prices fluctuating at high levels, TC quotes are stable but tend to weaken. Smelter profits are acceptable, and as of November 7, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 163.6 yuan/ton [32]. - As of November 14, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The automotive battery has entered the peak scrapping season, and most large smelters reported sufficient battery arrivals, and the price did not rise with the lead price [46]. 3.4 Primary Lead - The primary lead start - up rate remained flat month - on - month at 67.57%. The production of major deliverable primary lead brands in China had small fluctuations, with some smelters reducing production due to raw material shortages [33]. - The weekly production and maintenance arrangements of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises showed that the total weekly production in the week of November 7 was 50,050 tons, 49,850 tons in the week of November 14, and an expected 50,150 tons this week. Some enterprises in Anhui were under maintenance, while those in Inner Mongolia resumed normal production [38]. 3.5 Recycled Lead - As of November 14, the comprehensive profit of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 361 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 146 yuan/ton. With lead prices consolidating at high levels and scrap battery prices remaining stable, the profits of recycled lead smelters improved significantly [52]. - As of November 13, the raw material inventory of recycled lead increased to 152,750 tons, and the finished product inventory decreased to 4,400 tons. Due to limited primary lead supplies and firm quotes, some downstream buyers turned to recycled lead, resulting in a reduction in recycled lead finished product inventory [55]. - The recycled lead enterprise start - up rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 48.2%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of recycled lead was 59,400 tons, showing a decline. The start - up in Henan decreased significantly due to environmental protection control, while that in Anhui increased as smelters resumed production. Some smelters said they might stop production for maintenance around late November if the raw material inventory continued to decline [58]. 3.6 Lead Battery - The lead battery start - up rate increased by 1.34 percentage points to 70.56%. The resumption of production of enterprises that previously reduced production due to equipment maintenance or high lead prices drove the continuous increase in start - up. However, in the terminal market, the peak season of the automotive battery market was not prosperous, and dealers purchased according to demand. Some medium - and large - sized enterprises had weak new orders and actively reduced production to destock, so the overall battery start - up had not returned to the level in October [66]. 3.7 Import and Export - As of November 7, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of November 17, the import profit was - 406.85 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77]. 3.8 Inventory - As of November 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 38,600 tons, showing an increase; the factory inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands was 3,700 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. Due to delivery and position transfer, the factory inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the social inventory increased. With smelters resuming production and the end of the 2511 contract delivery, the decline in factory inventory is expected to slow down [88]. - As of November 14, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 42,800 tons, showing a month - on - month increase; as of November 13, the LME inventory was 222,500 tons, also showing an increase [91]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet showed the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [92].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead first rose and then fell. Macroscopically, the end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and weak domestic economic data pressured lead prices. Fundamentally, raw material supply remained tight, and processing fees for lead concentrates were weak and stable. Environmental controls in Henan affected the recycling of waste batteries, and some holders withheld goods, increasing costs. On the smelting side, primary lead production was stable, while secondary lead supply decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the consumption of lead - acid batteries for electric bicycles entered the off - season, and enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. Overall, LME lead was technically strong, and the domestic supply was stable while demand was weak. The import window for lead ingots closed, and lead prices were expected to adjust at a high level, with limited downward space due to the strength of LME lead and low domestic inventories [3][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From November 7th to November 14th, SHFE lead rose from 17,420 yuan/ton to 17,495 yuan/ton, LME lead rose from 2045 dollars/ton to 2066 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.52 to 8.47, SHFE inventory increased by 4208 tons to 42,790 tons, LME inventory increased by 18,775 tons to 222,475 tons, social inventory increased by 0.31 million tons to 3.49 million tons, and the spot premium decreased from - 175 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead switched to PB2601, with a weekly increase of 0.34%. LME lead rose first and then adjusted, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, after the rise and fall of Shanghai lead, the willingness of holders to deliver was determined, and the enthusiasm for shipping increased. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing [5] Industry News - As of the week of November 14th, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat month - on - month [9] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory levels, spread situations, waste battery prices, enterprise profit, processing fees, output, social inventory, and import profit and loss [11][12][18][19][22][23][25]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support high lead prices in the short term due to various factors including production issues and regulatory changes in electric vehicle battery standards [1][2]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of November 13, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported lead registered warehouse receipts at 128,650 tons, with canceled receipts at 95,325 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. Total lead inventory stands at 223,975 tons, down by 1,250 tons [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported lead inventory at 25,824 tons, an increase of 1,138 tons from the previous trading day. Regional breakdown shows: Shanghai at 4,784 tons (down 197 tons), Guangdong at 4,724 tons (up 1,011 tons), Jiangsu at 4,782 tons (unchanged), Zhejiang at 1,272 tons (up 99 tons), and Tianjin at 10,262 tons (up 225 tons) [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - October's electrolytic lead production fell short of expectations, leading to a tightening supply that has pushed lead prices higher. Environmental restrictions in Hebei have caused a regional supply tightness to spread nationwide [2]. - A shortage of lead concentrate has resulted in many electrolytic lead producers operating below market expectations despite resuming production. The opening of import windows for lead and lead concentrate is expected to increase import volumes, gradually resolving raw material issues at the smelting end [2]. - The demand for lead is expected to remain stable, with short-term lead prices anticipated to maintain high levels amid these supply constraints [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Adjustments - The lead market has seen a shift from a five-day price increase to a downward adjustment, with social inventories continuing to rise. The resumption of production at refineries and the replenishment of crude lead are alleviating supply-demand mismatches, leading to a weakening of fundamental support for prices [3]. - Short-term adjustments in lead prices are expected as the market responds to these changes in inventory and production dynamics [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of lead products such as SMM1 lead ingots, Shanghai lead main - contract, and London lead have shown an upward trend. The lead market has both supply and demand increasing, but high lead prices suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. This week is the week before the delivery of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract, and some hidden inventories will become visible. There is a risk of the lead price rising and then falling. Attention should be continuously paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on refinery operations in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.15% to 17,250 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main - contract closing price increased by 0.17% to 17,420 yuan/ton, and London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 0.99% to 2,045 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text, only historical basis data charts are presented [11]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The tight supply pattern of lead concentrate has not been alleviated, with domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees (TC) declining. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee dropped to 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee dropped to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The refinery profit is acceptable, with a profit of 162.5 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) as of October 31 [22][27]. - **Raw Material - Scrap Batteries**: As of November 7, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. With the continuous increase in secondary lead production, it is expected that the price of scrap batteries will rise in the future [42]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 67.57%. The weekly production of some major smelting enterprises remained stable, while some enterprises had production changes due to maintenance or production resumption. The total weekly production is expected to increase from 49,800 tons to 50,450 tons [28][33]. - **Secondary Lead**: The secondary lead operating rate increased by 7.3 percentage points to 50.7%. The weekly production reached 5.97 tons last week. The supply of scrap batteries is relatively stable, and most refineries have sufficient raw materials, with the operating rate returning to a high level in the past six months [54]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Battery Enterprises**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 69.22%. Some previously maintained enterprises resumed production last week, and the lead ingot trading improved. However, due to the high lead price increasing battery costs and the general terminal consumption, dealers' inventory building is limited, and battery enterprises mainly produce according to sales [62]. 3.4 Import and Export Analysis - As of October 31, the refined lead export loss was about 3,000 yuan/ton. As of November 10, the import profit was - 418.79 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [71]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of November 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.27 tons, and the inventory of primary lead's main delivery brand factories was 8,900 tons, showing an increase. High lead prices inhibited downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory accumulated due to delivery and position transfer [81]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 7, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.86 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 20.22 tons, showing a decrease [84]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the data of primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from July 2024 to August 2025 [85].

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Supply Gradually Recovering, Lead Prices May Oscillate Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the gradual increase in the operation of domestic secondary lead smelters, the supply of domestic lead ingots may improve. On the consumption side, terminal demand is gradually weakening, and domestic lead consumption may decline. Attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory situation, and lead prices may decline as social inventory increases [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply - Side**: Recently, the supply - demand of domestic lead concentrates remains in a tight balance. The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates has been reduced by 50 yuan to 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee of SMM imported lead concentrates has been reduced by 10 US dollars to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. Most secondary lead smelters in China have sufficient raw material inventories, and the purchase quotes for lead - containing waste materials are stable. Individual secondary lead smelters have slightly increased the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the operation of secondary lead smelting enterprises increases, the price of lead - containing waste materials may gradually rise [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters is 67.57%, an increase of 0.4% from last week. A small - scale smelter in Henan has resumed production after maintenance and slightly increased production; a small - and medium - scale smelter in Hunan has slightly fluctuated in output due to raw material supply, and other smelters in this region maintain partial operation and have not fully resumed production; smelters in Yunnan maintain normal production this week; a smelter in North China has reduced production as scheduled for maintenance, and another smelter's maintenance plan is still scheduled for late November. A smelter in Inner Mongolia that had resumed production after maintenance but was not at full capacity has returned to normal production and still has a slight increase this week. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead is 50.65%, an increase of 7.24% from last week. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Anhui is over 50%. The large - scale smelting enterprises under maintenance in this region have all resumed production and their output is slowly increasing. It is expected that the operating rate in this region will still rise next week. The production of enterprises in Henan and Jiangsu is relatively stable, and the regional operating rate has not changed much. Since the supply of lead ingots in the northern market is still not abundant, the sales orders of smelters in Inner Mongolia are good [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises is 69.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. Recently, affected by the rising lead prices, the production cost of lead - acid batteries has increased. To avoid accumulating high - price inventories, some medium - and large - scale enterprises plan to reduce production, stop production, or conduct equipment maintenance from the end of October to early November. The maintenance of lead - acid battery enterprises has been completed one after another this week, and a small number of enterprises have resumed normal production. In November, the demand in the automotive battery market is weak, and some enterprises have lowered their production plans for November. Therefore, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries has only increased slightly this week [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions has reached 31,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to October 30 and an increase of 1,600 tons compared to November 1 [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold previous short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 1.2 - 1.6 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [5][8][12][16] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - These sections list data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate supply, but no specific analysis content is provided [21][24] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - These sections list data on the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific analysis content is provided [28] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific analysis content is provided [36] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes of domestic refined lead, but no specific analysis content is provided [43] 3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue, but no specific analysis content is provided [44] 3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [47] 3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits - Lists data on the costs, comprehensive profits and losses, and production profits of secondary lead enterprises of different scales, but no specific analysis content is provided [50][54] 3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate, production, and output of secondary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [59] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on the total supply of domestic lead ingots, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and net refined lead exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [62] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealer inventories, export and import volumes, and enterprise inventories, but no specific analysis content is provided [69] 4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, lead alloy imports and exports, lead plate imports and exports, and other lead plate imports and exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [72] 4.3 Automobiles - Lists data on Chinese automobile production, exports, and production structure, but no specific analysis content is provided [75] 4.4 Motorcycles, Power, and Communications - Lists data on motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power projects, but no specific analysis content is provided [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. The domestic lead ingot social and factory inventories decreased to a low level, and there was a large - scale cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts overseas. The lead price increased with rising positions. With the slowdown of destocking of the total domestic lead ingot inventory but still at a low absolute level, and the continued shortage of deliverable products, and the relatively concentrated long positions of SHFE lead, it is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. As of November 6, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.26% to 17,438 yuan/ton, with a total long - only trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME lead 3S rose 0.5 to 2,022 dollars/ton, with a total position of 150,000 lots. The SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 17,225 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased to 32,100 tons, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,900 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 208,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 106,700 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.211 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 31.09 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons, and the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons. The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.90% [11]. - **Outlook**: The visible lead ore inventory continued to decline, the primary smelter start - up rate remained high, and the primary lead factory inventory increased. The recycled lead ingot weekly output increased. The downstream battery enterprise start - up rate declined, and the domestic lead ingot total inventory destocking slowed down but was still at a low level, with deliverable products remaining in short supply. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In September 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 150,600 physical tons, and in October, the domestic lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons. The total supply of lead concentrate in September was 306,000 metal tons. In June 2025, the global lead ore output was 395,900 tons [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The lead concentrate import TC was - 125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Data**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%, and in October 2025, the domestic primary lead output was 326,000 tons [11][26]. 3.3 Recycled Supply - **Raw Material and Production**: The lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and in October 2025, the domestic recycled lead output was 346,300 tons [31][33][35]. - **Total Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot total supply was 657,200 tons [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Apparent Demand**: The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.9%. In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot apparent demand was 718,900 tons [40]. - **Battery Export**: In September 2025, the estimated lead - containing net export of batteries was 60,700 tons [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, the new installation demand improved; in the automobile sector, the demand for lead was expected to grow steadily; in the base station sector, the demand for lead - acid batteries increased steadily [49][51][54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 61,800 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to September was a shortage of 6,800 tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of 8,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to July was a shortage of 53,900 tons [66]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,600 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 224,200 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.213 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 24.99 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead became net long, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance was bullish [80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic smelter production increase and decrease coexist, and the supply shortage has improved. After the consumer end resumes production, it is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. The terminal peak season is not prosperous. It is expected that the lead price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The opening of primary lead smelters increased and decreased, with small fluctuations in production. The opening of secondary lead smelters continued to rise due to improved profits and raw material supply. The opening of battery enterprises declined due to limited cost transfer. The import profit window was gradually closing, and downstream procurement was poor, leading to an increase in inventory [4][21][34][53][61][69]. - SMM 1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.43% to 17,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.17% to 17,390 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.42% to 2,025 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Mineral Supply and TC - The tight mineral supply pattern has not been alleviated, and TC is stable with a weakening trend. Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 125 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits declined, and as of October 24, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 106 yuan/ton [22][27]. 3.3 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 67.17% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was expected to be 50,050 tons, with some enterprises having maintenance plans and others resuming normal production [28][33]. 3.4 Secondary Lead - The price of waste batteries was firm. As of October 31, the average price of waste batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead smelters declined slightly. As of November 3, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 160 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 56 yuan/ton [37][46]. - The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of October 30, the raw material inventory was 134,450 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,940 tons. It is expected that the finished product inventory will further accumulate [47][49]. - The secondary lead operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 43.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 51,300 tons, with a slight decline. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise [50][52]. 3.5 Lead Batteries - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 6.46 percentage points to 68.9%. Due to limited terminal demand and high lead prices, some enterprises reduced production to avoid over - inventory. It is expected that the operating rate will recover this week [58][60]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of October 24, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the import profit was 24.99 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was gradually closing [63][68]. 3.7 Inventory - As of October 30, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 29,800 tons, a decrease; the inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands in factories was 8,600 tons, a month - on - month increase. High lead prices suppressed downstream procurement, leading to inventory accumulation [72][78]. - As of October 31, SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease; as of October 30, LME inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease [79][81]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to August 2025 [82].