Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoint - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth drivers Overall, the lead price is in a range - bound pattern due to low processing fees at the mine end and tight supply of used batteries in some regions The expected trading range for this week is between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,220 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.73/ton The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of used electric vehicle batteries, used white shells, and used black shells remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On October 23, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,160 yuan/ton and closed at 17,615 yuan/ton, up 455 yuan/ton from the previous trading day The trading volume was 74,008 lots, an increase of 44,997 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 23,288 lots, a decrease of 3,259 lots from the previous trading day The intraday price fluctuated between 17,160 yuan/ton and 17,760 yuan/ton In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,565 yuan/ton and closed at 17,510 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous week As of October 23, the LME lead inventory was 239,750 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddles [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a significant price increase due to limited supply and low social inventory, despite concerns about downstream demand as temperatures drop [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Lead prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose sharply, with the main contract increasing by over 3% at one point and closing with a gain of 2.68% [1] - Supply constraints are exacerbated by new regulations in Hebei, restricting the entry of certain vehicles into factories, impacting the transportation of raw materials and finished products [1] - The production of recycled lead is expected to recover as companies resume operations, but current supply remains limited, with social inventory still at low levels [1] Market Sentiment and Price Forecast - According to Guotou Futures, there is a coexistence of reduced primary lead production and insufficient recovery in recycled lead production, leading to a strong performance in Shanghai lead prices [1] - Market concerns about weakening consumption due to colder weather and expectations of overseas lead supply additions are creating pressure on the rebound of lead prices, resulting in increased market divergence [1] - The forecast for lead prices is expected to oscillate within the range of 16,500 to 17,300 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lead market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. The cost side supports the lead price, but the supply is gradually recovering while the demand fails to meet expectations, increasing the pressure for the lead price to fall after a rise [2][67][68] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review - In September, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated greatly. It rose above 17,000 yuan/ton mid - month due to pre - holiday stocking but fell at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.36%. The center of the London lead price shifted slightly upward, with a monthly decrease of 0.55% [7] 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to July 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 257.5 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. Overseas output is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons, and domestic output is expected to increase by about 70,000 tons [9][10] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In October, domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees decreased. The import volume of lead concentrate and silver concentrate increased in August. The demand for silver concentrate imports is expected to remain high [15][16] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead output was 7.702 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The annual output is expected to be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [18] - **Repairing smelters resume production, and electrolytic lead output recovers in October**: In September, electrolytic lead output was 327,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 335,000 tons in October [23] - **The price adjustment space of waste batteries is limited, and the improvement of smelter profits is beneficial to supply recovery**: In September, the price of waste batteries stopped falling and stabilized. The output of secondary refined lead in September was 236,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 256,100 tons in October [28][29] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead consumption was 7.676 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The annual demand is expected to reach 13.19 million tons, with a surplus of 82,000 tons [39] - **Lead battery operation is stable, and the peak consumption season is weak**: In September, the operating rate of lead battery enterprises was slightly better year - on - year but still did not meet expectations. After the holiday, the operating rate will gradually return to the pre - holiday level [42][43] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures suppress battery exports**: In August, the export volume of refined lead increased, but it is expected to remain low in September. The import volume of refined lead increased, and the export of batteries was under pressure [44][45] - **The terminal sector demand growth is slow, and sector performance is differentiated**: The demand for lead batteries in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors is relatively stable, and the demand in the energy storage sector is expected to grow [57][58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from a High Level - In September, LME inventory continued to decline from a high level, and social inventory also dropped from a high level. However, inventory is expected to increase again due to the supply - demand mismatch [63][66] 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The lead ore shortage situation is difficult to ease in the fourth quarter, supporting the lead price. The supply of electrolytic lead and secondary lead is expected to increase in October, but the demand is less than expected. Overall, the lead price is under increasing pressure to fall after a rise [67][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index fluctuated upwards, with the total position decreasing. The LME Lead also rose. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories declined continuously. Considering the strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals recently, the sector sentiment is positive. It is expected that the Shanghai Lead will oscillate widely at a low level in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.57% to 17,140 yuan/ton, with a 0.46 - thousand - hand decrease in total positions. The LME Lead rose 1.63% to 2,026.5 dollars/ton. As of the report end, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,800 yuan/ton, the recycled refined lead average price was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 94 thousand tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 10 thousand tons. The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62% [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: At the primary end, the visible lead ore inventory declined again, with a slower inventory accumulation rate than in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline. Although raw material shortages restricted primary smelting start - up, the start - up rate was still higher than in previous years. At the recycled end, the scrap inventory increased slightly, and the decline in raw material prices promoted the repair of recycled smelting profits, with a slight recovery in recycled start - up. The downstream battery enterprises' start - up was higher than in previous years. After the battery inventory pressure decreased, downstream purchases increased slightly. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories decreased continuously, and combined with the recent strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the sector sentiment was good [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In August 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 134.8 thousand physical tons, a 15.9% year - on - year change and a 10.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 919.7 thousand physical tons, a 31.5% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of silver concentrates in August was 185 thousand physical tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 20.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,191.1 thousand physical tons, a 6.3% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, China's lead concentrate production was 156.1 thousand metal tons, a 13.9% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total lead concentrate production was 1,097.7 thousand metal tons, an 11.8% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of lead - containing ores in August was 154.9 thousand metal tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 14.8% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,028.2 thousand metal tons, an 18.5% cumulative year - on - year change [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In August 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% year - on - year change and a 7.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,125.9 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% cumulative year - on - year change. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395.9 thousand tons, a 1.4% year - on - year change and a 4.1% month - on - month change. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2,256.5 thousand tons, a 4.6% cumulative year - on - year change [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, and the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327.8 thousand tons, a 12.4% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,860.9 thousand tons, an 8.3% cumulative year - on - year change [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Output**: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 86.4 thousand tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31.9 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 9.8 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317 thousand tons, a 5.5% year - on - year change and a - 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,888.8 thousand tons, a 1.7% cumulative year - on - year change [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In August 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 11.3 thousand tons, an - 86.1% year - on - year change and a - 10.5% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 67.8 thousand tons, a - 43.2% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 656.2 thousand tons, a - 5.4% year - on - year change and a 0.3% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 5,172.7 thousand tons, a 3.3% cumulative year - on - year change [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Demand**: The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62%. In August 2025, the apparent domestic lead ingot demand was 639.3 thousand tons, a - 5.3% year - on - year change and a - 1.9% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative apparent lead ingot demand was 5,117.7 thousand tons, a 1.6% cumulative year - on - year change [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In August 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.78165 million, and the net export weight was 97.9 thousand tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 61.2 thousand tons, an - 11.3% year - on - year change and an - 8.2% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total net export of lead in batteries was 494.1 thousand tons, a - 4.4% cumulative year - on - year change [43]. - **Inventory Changes**: In August 2025, the lead battery finished product factory inventory decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the dealer lead battery inventory days decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles led to high replacement demand, and the starting battery start - up rate remained relatively high. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drove the steady increase in lead - acid battery demand [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 16.9 thousand tons. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 55 thousand tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 8 thousand tons. From January to July, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 53.9 thousand tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton [74]. - **Price Ratios and Profits**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned slightly net short, the net long positions of LME Lead investment funds increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bearish [80].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View - After the National Day holiday, there may be a situation where the operating rate of secondary lead production recovers while battery consumption declines slightly. However, the tight supply pattern at the mine end remains unchanged. Coupled with the high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and the driving effect of the sharp rise of precious metals on various non - ferrous metal varieties, it is recommended to mainly use bargain - hunting buying hedging for lead prices at present [3] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On October 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.30/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM lead spot prices in different regions had different changes, and lead scrap prices remained unchanged [1] - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,199 lots, a decrease of 5,406 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 41,077 lots, a decrease of 1,556 lots. The night - session closing price rose 0.44% from the afternoon closing price. After the holiday, the lead ingot inventory of smelters in Henan and Hunan increased, and the market transaction was weak [2] - **Inventory**: On October 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons compared with the previous week. As of October 9, the LME lead inventory was 237,450 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use bargain - hunting buying hedging for lead prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai Lead is "Volatility", with a price range of [16,500, 17,800], featuring narrow - range fluctuations and occasional small - to medium - scale market movements [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the shortage of lead concentrates and waste batteries will intensify. Domestic demand is expected to improve periodically under the background of policy - boosted consumption, while export demand may continue to be under pressure. The oscillation center of Shanghai Lead may move up, and there may be small - to medium - scale upward trends as consumption improves. The volatility may increase compared to Q3, and it is safer to take long positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the production strategies of large enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Lead Price Review - In July, lead prices rose first and then fell. Shanghai Lead increased significantly due to anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and pre - trading of improved demand, but domestic demand was later disproven, and anti - cut - throat competition had limited impact on basic non - ferrous commodities. LME Lead was pressured by a stronger US dollar, and both domestic and overseas lead prices dropped back to pre - increase levels [6]. - In August, the 0 - 3 cash of the outer market remained deeply in contango. The domestic lead market had weak supply and demand. Falling lead prices and tight raw materials intensified the pressure on the operating rate of secondary smelters, and demand was even weaker. With low capital attention, both domestic and overseas lead prices fluctuated at low levels [6]. - In September, the bottom - building of lead prices ended. As the traditional peak season approached, the raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream battery factories continued to decline, and lead prices rose slightly in advance. With the approaching of the double - festival holiday, downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, and market transactions improved as lead prices rose. The fundamental support pushed the operating center of lead prices up from 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Supply Overseas - In Q3 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was lower than expected. Although project profits were sufficient, factors such as lower - than - expected output from sample mining enterprises, irreversible decline in mine grades, long - term impact of geological factors, time required for equipment renewal, and increased probability of La Nina led to the annual overseas lead concentrate increment dropping from 700,000 to 0 tons. There is no obvious expectation of improvement in Q4 [7][11]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lead concentrate output was 1.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, mainly due to the output release of new projects such as Yinzhushan and Kangjiawan. The main reasons for the decline in TC were the high operating rate of primary smelters, the reflection of the supply - demand relationship of high - grade concentrates in TC, and the weak bargaining power in spot transactions due to fewer long - term contracts signed by smelters. In Q4, Huoshaoyun may release marginal increments, and the domestic mine increment in 2025 is expected to reach +1.2 million tons. The import of Red Dog lead concentrate will share tariff costs equally between domestic and foreign parties, and the import of lead concentrates may decline seasonally in Q4. With primary smelters maintaining a relatively high operating rate, TC may continue to be under pressure [20]. 3. Primary Lead Production Overseas - From January to August, the cumulative overseas primary lead output was 864,000 tons (YoY - 1.4%). Due to tight raw materials, the reduction in overseas primary lead production increased. There was a significant reduction in Kazzinc 3rd Party under Glencore, and the incremental production from restarted and ramping - up projects was not obvious [24]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic primary lead output was 2.542 million tons (YoY + 8.2%), mainly due to the restoration of raw material supply, the widening of the price difference between refined and secondary lead, and the increase in production profits (including by - products such as small metals). The operating rate of primary lead in Q3 was generally at a high level. Overall, the domestic surplus (+193,000 tons) can still cover the overseas reduction (-13,000 tons). However, smelting profits are approaching the break - even point and declining, and with the downward pressure on TC in the future, smelting profits may be under pressure. The production of primary lead in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter [24]. 4. Secondary Lead Production - From January to August, the cumulative secondary refined lead output was 2.08 million tons (YoY - 3%), and the operating rate of secondary lead remained at a low level of 30%, which may drop below 25% in September. The production cuts of secondary lead smelters mostly follow the raw material consumption rhythm rather than profit changes. The scrap battery scrap volume in Q3 did not improve significantly. Although recyclers sold off stocks multiple times during the lead price decline, it had limited effect on replenishing smelters' raw material inventories. As lead prices rebounded, the profits of secondary lead smelters in October were restored, and the operating rate may increase [44]. - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Q4 may increase quarter - on - quarter but will still be highly volatile. The replacement demand may be stimulated by trade - in subsidies, new national standards, and consumer festivals after October, but the annual output is expected to be lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate is revised down to - 2%. After years of continuous losses, the cash flow of many secondary lead plants has been under pressure for two and a half years, and attention should be paid to the possible exit of secondary lead production capacity [44]. 5. Initial Demand - In Q3, lead demand was generally weak. In the battery field, the demand for new automotive batteries was neutral to weak, and the replacement demand was significantly lower than expected. The traditional peak seasons for electric two - wheelers and tricycles did not materialize. The export demand for batteries was also weakened by tariffs and anti - dumping measures, while the demand in the energy storage field continued to perform well [46]. - The participation of large enterprises in the futures market has decreased, and there is a phenomenon of buying on rising prices. The finished - product inventory of large enterprises has been transferred to dealers, and the finished - product inventory has undergone a round of destocking. The production orders of lead - carbon battery manufacturers in the energy storage field are abundant [48]. 6. Terminal Demand Electric Two - Wheelers - From January to August, the cumulative production of electric bicycles in Jiangsu and Tianjin increased by 101.5% and 14.7% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate expanded compared to the first half of the year. The cumulative production of two - wheeled and three - wheeled motorcycles increased by 10.6% and 4.4% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate narrowed compared to the first half of the year. The replacement demand in Q3 was weak. In Q4, the replacement demand is expected to strengthen periodically due to factors such as trade - in policies, upcoming Double Eleven promotions, and the implementation of new national standards [54]. Automobiles - From January to August, the domestic automobile production was 21.027 million vehicles (YoY + 12.6%), with new energy vehicles increasing by 37.1% and fuel vehicles decreasing by 2%. The export increased by 13.8% year - on - year, but the export growth rate may slow down in Q4. Considering the impact of lithium substitution for lead, the annual lead consumption growth rate in the automotive field is revised down to - 1.8% [59]. Energy Storage - Lead - carbon batteries are still irreplaceable in the data center energy storage field. As of the end of September, the production schedules of some energy storage manufacturers have reached March next year, and the demand for lead - carbon batteries continues to grow strongly. The lead consumption growth rate in this sector is revised up from 8% to 10% [59]. 7. Export Demand - From 2020 - 2023, the average annual compound growth rate of lead battery exports was 10%. From January to August, the export of starting - type batteries increased by 0.2% year - on - year, while the export of other types decreased by 11.5% year - on - year, and the decline further expanded. The main reasons are price ratio suppression, anti - dumping measures, and weak non - automotive demand (destocking) [64]. - There is no obvious driver for the recovery of overseas lead consumption, and the domestic secondary production cost support is still strong. The internal - external price ratio is difficult to repair significantly. With the influence of trade protectionism and battery manufacturers going global, exports may still be under pressure, and the annual export demand growth rate is revised down from flat to - 1% [64]. 8. Inventory - The LME lead inventory is still at a seasonal high even after destocking, and the 0 - 3 spot has been in deep contango for a long time [69]. - In Q3, the lead elements concentrated in the initial downstream and terminal consumption fields were slowly consumed, and the lead elements in the intermediate links of the industrial chain have decreased. However, the medium - to - long - term trend still depends on future demand. Before the double - festivals, downstream enterprises stocked up normally, and potential delivery risks should be警惕 under low inventory levels [69]. - The import window for lead ingots may open intermittently in Q4. Based on this expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities of the internal - external price ratio [69]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance - The revised balance sheet shows that the annual shortage level has decreased. The supply of primary lead may face a marginal tightening of imported ores in Q4, and TC has downward pressure, with a possibility of limited production cuts by smelters. The replacement demand in the secondary lead sector may improve periodically in Q4, but waste batteries will still be in short supply. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters may improve quarter - on - quarter but will remain highly volatile [71]. - The annual terminal demand growth rate is expected to turn negative, mainly due to the possible over - expected lithium substitution for lead, the pressure on both domestic sales and exports of automobiles, the dependence of electric vehicle replacement demand on policy stimuli, the strong consumption in the energy storage field, and the continued pressure on exports. The demand in Q4 may improve periodically [72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the resumption of production at primary lead smelters, the gradual resumption of secondary lead production, and the arrival of some crude lead, the supply side shows a recovery trend. However, downstream battery companies have completed their stockpiling, and the inventory reduction will slow down. There is a supply - demand mismatch during the National Day holiday, and there is an expectation of inventory increase, which will put pressure on lead prices. With fewer trading days this week and cautious pre - holiday funds, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly at high levels [3][7] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,150 yuan/ton to 17,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 2,003 dollars/ton to 2,001.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio dropped from 8.56 to 8.55; the SHFE inventory decreased by 8,123 tons to 49,209 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 875 tons to 219,425 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.84 million tons to 4.64 million tons; the spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 fluctuated at a high level, closing at 17,110 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.23%. The LME lead first declined and then rose, maintaining a sideways oscillation, closing at 2,001.5 dollars/ton with a weekly decline of 0.07%. In the spot market, near the National Day holiday, the supply of circulating goods was limited. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and most lead battery companies had completed pre - holiday stockpiling and only maintained rigid procurement. The inventory decreased significantly but the downward trend will slow down later [5][6] Industry News - In October, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 115 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 dollars/dry ton. A large smelter in Henan resumed production on September 26th. In August, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates decreased by 6.51% month - on - month and increased by 30.87% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc increased by 43.3% month - on - month and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year; the export volume of galvanized sheets decreased by 8.35% month - on - month and increased by 1.71% year - on - year [8] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][18]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lead market is under pressure this week, with futures prices declining and spot prices showing slight decreases, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Market Performance - The main contract for lead futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has struggled to rise, experiencing two consecutive days of decline, with prices falling below 17,000 yuan per ton on September 24 [1] - As of September 23, the average price of spot 1 lead was 16,950 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan per ton (0.15%) from the previous day, but up 750 yuan per ton (4.63%) year-on-year [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The recent decline in lead prices is attributed to weakened demand, as downstream companies have largely completed their pre-holiday stockpiling, leading to reduced purchasing activity from medium and small enterprises [1] - Despite the weakening demand, a decrease in social inventory of lead ingots has provided some support for lead prices [1] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of a continued weak and volatile trend in lead prices in the short term [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The primary lead ore's apparent inventory accumulation rate is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has declined again. Raw material shortages are suppressing primary smelting operations. On the secondary lead side, the price of scrap materials has dropped, the profit of secondary smelting has recovered, and operations have slightly improved. The downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years. After the pressure on battery inventory has decreased, downstream purchases have slightly increased. Both the domestic lead ingot factory inventory and social inventory have declined. After a long period of horizontal movement, the monthly spread of Shanghai lead has fluctuated upwards. It is expected that Shanghai lead will operate strongly in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.08% at 17,172 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 96,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 1 to $2,011/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 164,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,925 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: On the primary side, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. On the secondary side, the scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. In July 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,003,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In August 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 156,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 13.9% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to August, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,097,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.8%. In July 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,816,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and TC**: The port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Operation and Output**: The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. In August 2025, China's primary lead production was 324,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.9% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to August, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,533,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.8% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Material and Weekly Production**: The scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In August 2025, China's secondary lead production was 320,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 0.7%. From January to August, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,571,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.2% [31][33]. - **Import and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 4,516,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operation and Apparent Demand**: The operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06%. In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 4,478,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In July 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 20.8925 million, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In August 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway has driven the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the relatively high operation rate of starting batteries. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 38,100 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead turned slightly net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The position perspective indicates a bullish trend [80].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Investment rating for the lead industry: Cautiously bullish [4] Group 2: Core View - Although downstream demand remains weak, macro - factors make lead prices relatively resistant to decline. With signs of a slight recovery in downstream lead - battery demand, tight raw - material supply, multiple smelter overhauls in September, and a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, lead prices are likely to rise gradually, with a fluctuation range of 16,960 - 17,280 yuan/ton [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 15, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.16/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 175 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot rose by 175 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot rose by 175 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium rose by 200 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,950 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,325 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,050 yuan/ton, closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 58,666 lots, down 4,763 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 47,056 lots, down 5,132 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,205 yuan/ton and a low of 17,030 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,165 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close. SMM1 lead price rose by 175 yuan/ton. In Henan, most suppliers preferred to deliver, a few quoted at a discount of 110 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract, and non - delivery brand factory - pickup sources were quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. In Hunan, after inventory decline, smelters mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, a few stopped quoting for spot sales, and others quoted at a discount of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. In Anhui and Jiangxi, suppliers quoted at a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. The spot market price increase was limited, downstream battery companies' purchasing enthusiasm was low, and market transactions were scarce [2] Inventory - On September 15, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 69,000 tons, up 1,900 tons from the previous week. As of September 16, the LME lead inventory was 225,625 tons, down 3,950 tons from the previous trading day [3] 2. Strategy - The overall strategy is to be cautiously bullish. Due to a slight recovery in downstream lead - battery demand, tight raw - material supply, smelter overhauls in September, and a likely Fed rate cut in September, lead prices are expected to rise gradually, with a fluctuation range of 16,960 - 17,280 yuan/ton [4]