Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations around $3,330, with the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations but failing to push gold prices lower. The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in July have slowed, which is not favorable for gold prices to break upward. The short-term outlook for gold remains within a range of fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The recent non-farm payroll data showed that new job additions exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1%, indicating a generally healthy labor market without signs of deterioration that would necessitate preemptive rate cuts [2]. - Federal Reserve official Bostic indicated that high inflation in the U.S. may persist for an extended period, potentially affecting consumer psychology and requiring businesses to adapt to changing trade and policy conditions over a year or more [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices initially rebounded before declining, reaching a high of $3,365 and a low of $3,311 on the day of the non-farm data release. The daily closing price was below $3,325, suggesting that as long as the price does not break below $3,300, there is potential for an upward movement. The four-hour chart indicates a range-bound market, while the hourly chart shows a bearish trend [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Atlanta Fed President Bostic highlight a cautious approach towards U.S. economic policy amid uncertainty, advocating for patience and a wait-and-see strategy to avoid detrimental adjustments in interest rate policy [1][3]. Economic Policy and Uncertainty - Bostic emphasized that making significant adjustments to monetary policy in the current uncertain environment is unwise, noting that the resilience of the U.S. macroeconomy provides a buffer for policymakers [3]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged this year, indicating a wait for more key economic signals before making decisions [3]. Tariff Policy and Inflation - Bostic is particularly focused on the impact of tariff policies, suggesting that price increases due to tariffs may manifest gradually rather than as a sudden spike, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations over time [4]. - He warned that if his assessment is correct, the U.S. economy could face prolonged high inflation pressures, which would pose significant challenges for future Federal Reserve policy decisions [4]. Labor Market Observations - Despite a positive employment report for June, Bostic noted subtle changes in the labor market, such as a slowdown in hiring, indicating a gradual softening of the labor market [4]. - He strongly advised the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remain patient and wait for clearer economic conditions before making decisions to avoid unnecessary market volatility [4]. Government Debt Concerns - Bostic pointed out that the rising U.S. government debt levels will have significant implications for policymakers, as high debt servicing costs could crowd out resources for other important economic activities [5]. - He highlighted that the recently passed tax and spending bill could increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over ten years, raising concerns about the potential impact on fiscal policy and interest rates [5]. - Bostic expressed worry that if financial markets perceive the U.S. government debt as a rising risk, interest rates may move independently of Federal Reserve policy, creating substantial challenges for monetary policy formulation [5].

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes the need for patience in economic policy amid uncertainty, suggesting that a wait-and-see approach can prevent policy reversals on interest rates [1] - Bostic notes that the macroeconomic resilience provides space for maintaining patience, especially as Fed officials await the impact of tariffs and regulatory changes on the economy [1] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two cuts by 2025, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The June employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for a rate cut in July [2] - Bostic acknowledges signs of softening in the labor market, including a slowdown in hiring, but asserts that the job market has not deteriorated [2] - The potential impact of rising U.S. government debt levels on decision-making is highlighted, with concerns that debt servicing costs may crowd out other activities, affecting prices and employment in a substantial way [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is facing a prolonged period of high inflation influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors, which may gradually affect consumer expectations. The Federal Reserve should remain patient and avoid hasty interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Outlook - The price adjustments and the economy's adaptation to U.S. trade policies and new policy changes are expected to be a prolonged process, potentially lasting a year or more [1]. - There is a risk of a slow but sustained upward trend in inflation, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation [1]. Group 2: Labor Market and Monetary Policy - Despite a resilient labor market, with June job additions exceeding expectations and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, there are no signs of weakness that would prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates prematurely [1]. - Given the high uncertainty in employment, economic growth, and inflation trends, it is not the right time for significant adjustments to monetary policy [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a risk that high inflation may begin to affect consumer sentiment [1] Group 2 - The statement highlights the potential psychological impact of sustained high inflation on consumers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, emphasizes that maintaining price stability is the top priority following a period of high inflation [1] Group 1 - The recent high inflation period has led to a renewed focus on price stability as a critical objective for the economy [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates and indicated a slower pace for future rate cuts, with Powell stating that high inflation persists [2] - The spot gold market reacted to the news, experiencing a slight decline, reaching a low of $3362.58 per ounce and closing at $3369.15 per ounce [2] - Future market trends should be monitored closely, particularly regarding trade tariffs, geopolitical developments, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction along with U.S. Treasury yields [2] Group 2 - In the spot gold market, the hourly chart shows a consolidation phase, with a short-term 15-minute chart also indicating a range-bound movement between $3362.00 and $3380.00, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [3] - If the market breaks below $3362.00, a short position may be considered, targeting $3352.00 to $3342.00 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if the market breaks above $3380.00, a long position may be initiated, with targets set at $3390.00 to $3400.00, and a stop loss of $5.00 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The spot silver market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with the hourly chart indicating a range between $36.500 and $36.980, suggesting a buy low and sell high strategy [6] - A break below the support level of $36.500 per ounce may prompt the establishment of a short position, targeting $36.150 to $35.800 per ounce [6] - If the market successfully breaks above $36.980 per ounce, a long position may be pursued, with potential targets of $37.400 to $37.900 per ounce, and a stop loss of $0.200 per ounce [6]

Core Viewpoint - The process of combating high inflation by the Federal Reserve is not yet complete [1] Group 1 - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's efforts to address high inflation are ongoing and have not reached a conclusion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Royal Bank strategists highlight a potential 20% decline in the US stock market under high inflation scenarios, particularly if oil prices rise significantly [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The report outlines three potential scenarios for a US stock market pullback, emphasizing the vulnerability of the market due to recent rebounds and high valuations [1] - The strategists indicate that the broader and longer the Middle East conflict lasts, the greater the negative impact on the US stock market [1] Group 2: Potential Outcomes - In the worst-case scenario, if the conflict drives up energy prices, the S&P 500 index could revert to its April lows [1] - In a less severe scenario, the index may decline by approximately 13% [1] Group 3: Inflation and Earnings Growth - Analysis suggests that if inflation rises "severely" to 4%, earnings growth from 2024 onwards could be zero, with the Federal Reserve only cutting rates twice [1] - If the 10-year US Treasury yield remains at current levels, the benchmark index could fall to 4800 points by year-end, representing a nearly 20% decrease from current levels [1]

加皇资本市场策略师在列出了三种可能回调情景的报告中称，如果油价上涨导致通胀飙升，那么 标普 500指数面临下跌20%的风险。Lori Calvasina等策略师表示，鉴于近期大幅反弹、估值似乎过高，美国 股市比较脆弱。他们表示，中东冲突范围越大、持续时间越长，对美国股市的负面影响就越大。在最糟 糕情景中，如果袭击事件推升能源价格，标普500指数料将回到4月低点。他们表示，在更好一些的情景 中，该指数可能下跌约13%。"这场冲突可能会引发人们对消费者状况、整体经济以及 美联储路径的更 多担忧，这种叙事转变似乎可能给股价带来问题，"这些策略师在报告中写道。 ...