1、摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）对全球一系列金融和政治风险保持警惕。 2、戴蒙表示，由于利差较低，信贷目前是一个严重的风险，盈利预期可能会下降。 该行将允许客户交易比特币，但戴蒙表示他仍然"不太支持"、他仍然"不喜欢"比特币。 仍对高通胀和滞胀保持警惕，通货膨胀和滞胀的可能性比大多数人预想的要高。 地缘政治风险（戴蒙过去经常关注的问题）仍然非常高。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive time without change, amid persistent high inflation and risks of high unemployment [2] - Powell highlighted that tariff issues are significant factors affecting recent economic performance, and the government is beginning trade negotiations that could materially alter the current economic landscape [2] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations but remained within a range, with a focus on potential changes in the bullish trend in the upcoming trading days [2][3] Group 2 - The US dollar index showed little change, remaining in a low range, with attention on whether the 100 level will continue to exert downward pressure, which could lead to an increase in gold prices [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold remains strong as long as it stays above the Bollinger middle band support at 3360, with potential upward targets at 3400 and 3430 [3] - Domestic gold prices in China are advised to wait for pullbacks to enter long positions, with expectations of reaching 815 and possibly 820 in the short term [4] Group 3 - International silver prices have shown a clear upward trend, with recommendations to buy on pullbacks around the 32 level, targeting 33.5 in the near term [5] - Domestic silver in China has been fluctuating within a range, with a maximum range identified between 8200 and 8400, suggesting buying opportunities near the lower end of this range [5] - Crude oil prices are expected to face resistance at 60.5, with current prices around 57.7 indicating a potential for low-level fluctuations, while still maintaining a bullish outlook [6] Group 4 - Domestic fuel prices have shown an upward trend, with current prices around 2615, and expectations for further increases towards 2700 and 2800 [6]

机构：现在判断降息信号仍为时尚早 金十数据5月8日讯，Transunion副总裁兼美国研究咨询主管Michele Raneri表示，美联储按兵不动很可能 是因为高通胀以及其他近期经济趋势的影响，例如强劲的4月非农就业报告。尽管今年晚些时候仍有可 能降息，但当前的经济形势较为复杂，现在判断是否会降息以及何时降息还为时过早。 ...

美联储FOMC声明：高失业率和高通胀的风险已经上升。 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.77%, S&P 500 futures down 0.93%, and Nasdaq futures down 1.21% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.89%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.22%, France's CAC40 down 0.52%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.70% [2] - WTI crude oil increased by 2.15% to $58.36 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 2.06% to $61.47 per barrel [2] Company News - Goldman Sachs indicates that recent earnings reports from major tech companies in the AI sector have boosted investor confidence, suggesting that recent pullbacks present a buying opportunity [3] - DoorDash reported Q1 revenue growth of 20.7% to $3.03 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $590 million, exceeding market expectations [4] - Philips lowered its annual profit forecast due to the impact of US tariffs, estimating a net effect of €250 million to €300 million (approximately $283 million to $340 million) [5] - Palantir's Q1 revenue surged 39% to $884 million, leading to an upward revision of its 2025 revenue forecast to approximately $3.9 billion, a 36% year-over-year increase [5] - Ford's Q1 revenue fell 5% to $40.7 billion but exceeded analyst expectations, while the company withdrew its full-year profit guidance [6] - Apple is expected to launch AI features in China with support from Alibaba and Baidu, integrating local compliance mechanisms [7] - WeRide expanded its strategic partnership with Uber to deploy autonomous Robotaxi services in 15 cities over the next five years [8] - The US Department of Justice is pushing for the forced divestiture of Google's online advertising business, citing illegal monopoly practices [9]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发表报告表示，美联储官员近期对货币政策调整表现出高度谨慎，强调需等待 更多数据支持后再采取行动。总体而言，高通胀、关税政策的不确定性以及劳动力市场等潜在风险是当 前决策的核心考量。 高盛指出，自3月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议以来，多位官员与主席鲍威尔的立场一致，认为当前 政策"处于良好位置"，需等待更明确的经济数据后再决定是否调整利率。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表 示："宁愿缓慢行动但方向正确，也不愿快速行动却犯错。"她提到，如果6月前能获得"明确且有说服力 的数据"，FOMC可能会调整利率，但前提是"确定正确的行动方向"。 就目前而言，关税对经济的影响成为讨论焦点。高盛表示，美联储官员普遍意识到，关税的实际经济影 响比预期更大。虽然理论上关税可能只会导致价格一次性上涨，但也存在引发更持久通胀的风险。美联 储主席鲍威尔指出，关税很可能至少会导致通胀暂时上升，其通胀影响可能更持久，供应链中断等因素 可能使一次性通胀冲击持续更长时间。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也提到，关税变化对价格和经济活动 有多种直接和间接影响，间接和第二轮效应可能对通胀产生更持久的影响 。 美联储理事沃勒指出，在"高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about further economic deterioration have led U.S. private credit investors to sell assets at significant discounts, with some transactions occurring at half the asset's face value [1] Group 1: Discount Trading and Investor Behavior - Private credit market investors are selling fund shares at notable discounts, starting from 10% and dropping to as low as 50% [2] - The current sell-off is characterized as a proactive risk-hedging behavior by investors rather than a result of forced liquidations or severe liquidity crises [2] - There has been no significant deterioration in credit quality observed so far, but concerns about expanding discounts may arise as economic conditions worsen [2] Group 2: Credit Quality Concerns - The U.S. private credit market has rapidly expanded to a size of $1.6 trillion, raising concerns about asset quality during economic downturns due to a relatively lax regulatory environment [2] - Issues with "loose underwriting" in private credit loans could lead to high single-digit default rates for high-yield debt and potentially double-digit default rates for private credit [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategic Positioning - The current situation is viewed as more severe than during the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to higher inflation pressures that could amplify economic shocks [4] - The potential economic downturn is compared to the bursting of the internet bubble, with expectations of a similarly severe impact [4] - Oak Tree Capital is cautiously positioning itself in the credit market, maintaining liquidity to capitalize on larger investment opportunities as they arise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced a market closure from May 1 to May 5, with trading resuming on May 6, which may impact investor sentiment negatively [1] - A meeting was held to discuss measures to support listed companies in enhancing their market value, which is beneficial for the A-share market, particularly for the 1,503 state-owned enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Nasdaq index rebounded by 10% over the week, but future movements may be uncertain due to inflation and tariff issues [3] - The Federal Reserve is considering a potential interest rate cut in June, which could influence market dynamics [3] Group 3 - Current market conditions indicate upward movement, but lack of trading volume poses significant pressure [5] - In an optimistic scenario, if trading volume exceeds 150 billion yuan, the Shanghai Composite Index could test 3,320 points [5] - In a neutral scenario, the market may maintain a trading volume of 1.1 to 1.2 trillion yuan, with the index fluctuating between 3,280 and 3,330 points [5] - In a pessimistic scenario, if trading volume falls below 1 trillion yuan, the index may retreat to 3,250 points, increasing risks for gold and consumer stocks [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.07% at 3,295.06, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.39% and 0.59%, respectively [7] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase around the 3,300-point mark, which is a critical level that requires further digestion [7] - A successful breakthrough above 3,300 points could lead to a more favorable upward trend in the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari stated that while tariffs leading to one-time price increases are reasonable, there is a risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored in the context of high inflation, which must be avoided [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are seen as a contributing factor to temporary price hikes [1] - The current high inflation environment raises concerns about the potential for inflation expectations to spiral out of control [1] - It is crucial to manage inflation expectations to maintain economic stability [1]