Group 1 - The market experienced a sudden downturn due to Israel's strike on Iran, leading to a rise in oil and gold prices while stock futures in Japan and the US fell sharply [1] - A significant sell-off occurred in the stock market, with a trading volume of 140 billion and 4,600 stocks declining, marking a notably negative trading day [4] - The market is characterized by various black swan events, and those who cannot endure short-term volatility may miss out on profits [3] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the market index is expected to recover in the afternoon, with a critical support level at 3,380 points [6] - The performance of key sectors such as banking, liquor, and securities will be crucial in stabilizing the market [6] - A shift in capital from high to low positions is anticipated after a sharp decline, which may not necessarily be negative for the market [6] Group 3 - The strategy proposed emphasizes avoiding stock trading and suggests that the market index will eventually reach new highs this year [8] - The conclusion indicates that the outcome of the market is predictable, and patience is required for returns, similar to how individuals exchange time for income in their jobs [8]

Rystad Energy石油部门主管Mukesh Sahdev则提供数据支撑，指出伊朗原油产量已从2019年低谷恢复至 400万桶/日水平，其中中国采购量增长构成重要支撑。他认为，伊朗可能采取的报复行动以及对霍尔木 兹海峡的封锁，对原油供应构成风险，不过鉴于美国宣称的谈判目标，冲突不太可能升级为全面战争。 西太平洋银行大宗商品主管Robert Renney从军事行动特征展开分析，认为本次精准打击伊朗军方高层 及核设施的行动，更像是一次性战略威慑而非全面战争开端，但强调"周末期间需警惕伊朗对以色列本 土的直接报复，这可能导致油价突破1月高点"。该机构仍维持中长期看空立场，预判三季度油价可能下 探60-65美元区间，四季度存在跌破60美元风险。 航运市场已率先作出反应。Oil Brokerage全球航运研究主管Anoop Singh指出，中东海湾区域集中着全球 15%的超大型原油运输船队，地缘风险升级将直接推高保险费用与航线成本。齐盛期货分析师高建基于 历史数据模型测算，参照前两轮伊以冲突后的市场反应，本次原油价格短期或存在3-5美元的上涨空 间。 面对复杂局势，国投安信期货首席能源分析师高明宇提出双轨策略：建 ...

Group 1: Dollar Outlook - Wall Street investment banks are generally bearish on the dollar, predicting it will weaken further due to slowing economic growth and policy uncertainty [1][2] - Morgan Stanley forecasts the dollar will drop to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs also holding negative views [1] - The ICE dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of nearly 8.5% this year, marking its worst performance in the first five months historically [1] Group 2: G7 Debt Burden - The substantial debt burden of G7 countries is emerging as a new pressure point in the market, with IMF data indicating that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise for four of the seven economies over the next five years [3] - The U.S. has lost its "AAA" rating from Moody's, and Japan's bond auctions are facing significant challenges, drawing global bond investors' attention [3] - Italy has become an unexpected stable winner due to a significant reduction in its budget deficit, while other G7 countries like the UK and France are also facing fiscal discipline challenges [3][4] Group 3: Japan's Bond Market - Japan's 10-year bond auction saw strong demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio rising from 2.54 to 3.66, significantly above the average for the past year [5] - However, the upcoming 30-year bond auction poses a challenge, as its yield recently hit a historical high of 3.185%, raising concerns about the Bank of Japan's exit from ultra-loose policies [5][6] - The Bank of Japan's potential reduction in bond purchases could steepen the yield curve, intensifying market worries about government borrowing capacity [6] Group 4: Alphabet (Google) Stock Outlook - Barclays warns that if a U.S. judge orders Google to sell its Chrome browser, Alphabet's stock could plummet by 15%-25%, significantly impacting its revenue [7][8] - Despite this, Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating for Alphabet, projecting a 12-month target price of $220, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential [8] - Alphabet's search business remains a core growth engine, with expected revenue growth from $198 billion in 2024 to $318 billion by 2030 [8] Group 5: Walmart's Membership Growth - Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey indicates that Walmart's subscription service, Walmart+, has maintained a high user base, continuing strong growth momentum [9][10] - The membership count has seen a year-on-year increase of approximately 29%, driving expectations for recurring sales growth and high-profit margin prospects [10] - This membership program enhances customer loyalty and attracts higher-income consumers, strengthening Walmart's e-commerce and advertising capabilities [10]

俄罗斯国防部通报称，自当地时间6月1日20时10分至2日2时，俄军防空系统在库尔斯克州、别尔哥罗德州、利佩茨克州、 沃罗涅日州、布良斯克州、梁赞州、奥廖尔州、坦波夫州和克里米亚地区上空共击落162架乌克兰无人机。其中在库尔斯克 州上空击落57架。 根据乌克兰空军2日发布的消息，从当地时间6月1日21时30分以来，俄军使用80架无人机、3枚弹道导弹和1枚巡航导弹发动 袭击。截至当地时间6月2日早上8时30分，乌军通过火力和电子战压制，共击落52架无人机。 第二轮俄乌谈判前夕飞出数只"黑天鹅" 就在第二轮俄乌谈判召开前夕，多起"黑天鹅"事件却接连发生。其中包括24小时内俄两州发生两起桥梁坍塌事故、乌方透 露对俄发起特别行动摧毁俄41架战略轰炸机、乌陆军司令因训练营遭袭辞职等事件。 俄乌第二轮直接谈判在土耳其举行 △6月2日，土耳其伊斯坦布尔契拉昂宫，俄乌代表团分别进入谈判会场。 当地时间6月2日，俄罗斯与乌克兰第二轮直接谈判在土耳其伊斯坦布尔的契拉昂宫举行。 当天，乌克兰代表团抵达土耳其伊斯坦布尔。乌代表团人员共14人，仍由乌克兰国防部长乌梅罗夫率领。 俄罗斯代表团于1日抵达，仍由俄罗斯总统助理梅金斯基率领。据此 ...

每经编辑｜毕陆名 据央视新闻6月2日消息，当地时间6月1日，记者获悉，据一位未透露姓名的美国政府官员消息，特朗普政府并未提前获悉乌克兰会在本周末对俄罗斯 发起大规模袭击行动。 乌克兰国家安全局1日晚在社交媒体发文称，当天对俄罗斯实施了特种作战行动，袭击了俄军的战略轰炸机。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基当晚在视频讲话中说，乌国家安全局为此次行动筹备了一年半之久。在此次作战行动中，乌方出动117架无人机对俄多个州的机 场实施了袭击。另据乌克兰国际文传电讯社报道，乌国家安全局当天对俄境内四座军用机场实施了特种作战，俄方包括图-95和图-22战略轰炸机在内 的41架战机遭到乌无人机袭击。 知情人士透露，该行动在后勤保障方面极具挑战性：先通过秘密渠道向俄境内输送FPV无人机，后转运移动木制伪装装置。在俄境内，无人机被隐藏 于卡车装载的木质结构顶棚下，待命期间保持静默，最终通过远程激活实施打击。据乌克兰媒体报道，乌克兰安全局消息称所有参与行动人员均已安 全返回乌克兰，俄方所谓"破坏分子落网"之说纯属信息操纵。 俄乌第二轮谈判将于6月2日举行。根据土耳其外交部在1日晚间发布消息，本次会谈将于当地时间2日13时在伊斯坦布尔的契拉昂宫举 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve must take decisive and strong policy actions to address inflation deviations from targets, especially in the context of rising trade protectionism and tariffs under the Trump administration [1][3] Group 1: Inflation Management - Inflation expectations management is a core pillar of modern central bank policy frameworks [1] - Historical experience indicates that the root causes of persistent inflation often stem from unanchored expectations, and the cost of restoring these expectations can rise exponentially [1][3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks significantly impact inflation dynamics, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing notable supply shocks that increase economic uncertainty [3] - The public's perception of future prices may undergo nonlinear changes due to sudden shocks [3] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - The trade policies under the Trump administration complicate Federal Reserve decision-making, as tariffs exert pressure on the economy through both imported inflation and demand suppression [3] - The Federal Reserve has been assessing the lagged effects of trade policies on inflation since maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December of the previous year [3] Group 4: Financial System Resilience - Current data from the New York Fed indicates that the banking system has sufficient reserves to withstand potential shocks, providing an important buffer for the market [3] - Adequate liquidity reserves will determine the financial system's resilience in the face of "black swan" events [3] Group 5: Policy Forward Guidance - The Federal Reserve emphasizes a data-dependent approach, avoiding overreaction to temporary fluctuations while guarding against the accumulation of potential risks [3] - The most effective policy is proactive expectation management rather than reactive crisis response [3]

Market Trend Analysis - Macro Global Markets processes 120 million market data points every minute, providing effective intelligence equivalent to a medium-sized library for each user every second [3] - The "Three-Dimensional Policy Shock Model" quantifies central bank interest rate paths, fiscal stimulus scales, and regulatory frameworks into tradable parameters, predicting that a one-month delay in the Fed's balance sheet reduction could narrow emerging market bond spreads by 8-12 basis points [3] Investment Strategy Core - The global macro strategy of Macro Global Markets is regarded as a "decision-making bible" due to its three-layer penetrating analysis framework, focusing on economic fundamentals, political cycles, and technological leaps [5] - The "Volatility Quadrant Tool" redefines risk-return ratios by categorizing assets into four types, with a recommendation to increase allocation to low correlation, high volatility assets to hedge against geopolitical risks, achieving a 3.2% positive return during a 9% drop in the Nasdaq index [5] Risk Quantification - The "Stress Test Matrix" offers a solution that surpasses traditional VaR models, simulating both sudden shocks and chronic risks, predicting a 12%-15% valuation correction for China's new energy vehicle sector if EU carbon tariffs expand [6] - The "Options Implied Volatility Surface Anomaly Scanning System" has successfully captured early signs of multiple black swan events, providing a 72-hour window for institutional investors to adjust their positions ahead of potential Fed rate cuts [6] Future Economic Forecast - Predictions indicate that 2026 may become the "year of AI productivity realization," driven by breakthroughs in general artificial intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, and controllable nuclear fusion [8] - The "Geopolitical Heat Index" suggests Southeast Asia is emerging as a new value area, with significant growth in infrastructure investment and digital payment penetration, recommending a focus on tech-consumer hybrid sectors in the region [8] Conclusion - Macro Global Markets' "anti-fragile analysis system" combines machine learning with human insights to navigate market uncertainties, helping professional investors create a "wealth navigation map" for the current era [9]

文章来源：公众号喵姐交易日记 周一可能出现一些迹象，周五10年期美国国债收益率在成交量清淡的情况下一度升至4.49%，而追踪标准普尔500指数的交易所交易基金(ETF)盘后下跌 0.6%。 富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案副首席投资官马克斯·戈克曼表示："在持续不断、资金匮乏的财政慷慨政策下，且势必加速的情况下，美国国债评级下调并 不令人意外。随着主权和机构大型投资者开始逐步将美国国债换成其他避险资产，偿债成本将继续攀升。不幸的是，这可能会给美国债券收益率带来危险 的熊市螺旋式上升，进一步给美元带来下行压力，并降低美国股市的吸引力。" 周一(5月19日)，美元指数跌至100.81，黄金回升至3246美元，比特币跌深后反弹至106600美元附近。穆迪下调美国评级，进一步给美元带来下行压力。美 国贸易战恐慌回归，美国总统特朗普抨击沃尔玛(Walmart)因关税而涨价。 黑天鹅事件：穆迪下调美国评级美元买盘受挫 投资者本周交易开局仍将面临又一次坎坷，不过这一次，引发波动的可能是对美国债务而非关税的日益担忧。 周一亚洲金融市场重新开市，此前，穆迪评级公司周五晚间宣布，将美国政府的信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1。穆迪的评级落后 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of decision-making in life and investment, emphasizing that good decisions can lead to better opportunities and outcomes [1][2] - It highlights the case of Bill Ackman, who made a significant profit of $3.6 billion by strategically using credit default swaps (CDS) to hedge against the risks posed by the COVID-19 pandemic [3][4] - Ackman's approach involved a small investment of $26 million in CDS linked to $71 billion of corporate debt, which proved to be a successful hedge as the pandemic unfolded [4][26] Group 2 - The article introduces the concept of "black swan" events, which are rare, impactful, and often unpredictable occurrences that can reshape industries and economies [5][11] - It outlines the characteristics of black swan events, including their rarity, significant impact, post-event explanations, and the potential for preemptive measures [8][10] - The article emphasizes that black swan events are not just negative occurrences; positive black swan events can also lead to unexpected opportunities [16][40] Group 3 - Ackman's strategy during the pandemic exemplifies the "barbell strategy" or "tail risk hedging," where a small investment is made to protect against extreme outcomes while maintaining a larger portfolio [24][26] - The article suggests that successful investors like Ackman are sensitive to tail risks and can capitalize on unexpected market movements [31][32] - It concludes that while luck plays a role in investment success, skilled decision-makers are better positioned to seize opportunities when they arise [32][33]

Group 1 - National security is a fundamental cornerstone for the stability of the nation, with the overall national security concept proposed by the central leadership providing essential guidance for security work in the new era [1][4] - The relationship between national security and modernization is emphasized, indicating that national security is crucial for the steady progress of Chinese-style modernization [1][2] - The rapid growth of China's GDP from 54.75 trillion yuan in 2012 to an expected 134.91 trillion yuan in 2024 highlights the significant economic achievements during the modernization process [2] Group 2 - The current global landscape is characterized by unprecedented changes, with rising anti-globalization sentiments and frequent local conflicts, complicating the national security situation [3] - The challenges faced by China in transitioning from a middle-income to a high-income country are more complex, with various risks and uncertainties emerging [3] - The overall national security concept, established in 2014, emphasizes a comprehensive approach to security, integrating various aspects of national safety and guiding the country's security practices [5][6] Group 3 - The interaction between high-quality development and high-level security is crucial, with the need to balance development and security being a significant principle in governance [7][8] - High-quality development is seen as a solution to various security risks, with a focus on enhancing economic and technological strength to address challenges [8] - The importance of technological self-reliance and innovation in ensuring national security and development is highlighted, particularly in the context of international competition [8]