特朗普和墨西哥总统辛鲍姆今天将讨论关税问题。 （华尔街日报） ...

根据再就业服务公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas的数据（挑战者报告），美国七月份的裁员计划飙升 至一个高位，远超疫情以来的月平均水平。其中，科技公司在裁员方面处于领先地位。 本月，美国公司宣布的裁员人数达到62075人，而去年同期约为25900人。该报告于周四发布，显示2025 年的裁员人数是过去十年中七月份的第二高，仅次于2020年新冠疫情最严重时期的裁员数量。 报告指出，计划裁员的原因包括人工智能和关税。此外，经济前景的不确定性导致零售业出现裁员和店 铺关闭。 近几周，主要科技公司公布了裁员计划。英特尔公司宣布计划裁员15%，而微软公司也启动了今年的第 二轮裁员，将影响9000名员工。整个科技行业都在增加对人工智能的投入，试图在其他方面削减成本。 计划中的裁员不一定会立即转化为实际的失业。截至六月，美国整体就业市场保持稳定，失业率维持在 4.1%的低位。然而，根据经济学家的预测中值，预计政府将于本周五发布的七月就业报告将显示，随 着就业增长放缓，失业率将小幅上升至4.2%。 挑战者报告还显示，汽车制造商的裁员计划有所增加，这主要与关税有关。此外，联邦预算削减正在对 依赖政府业务的 ...

北京时间周四20:30，美国公布PCE数据，6月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.8%，高于预期的2.70%，前 值由2.70%修正为2.8%。6月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.3%，符合预期，高于前值的0.20%。 包含食品能源的整体PCE指数环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，分别高于市场预期的0.23%和2.5%。 数据还显示，个人消费支出价格指数环比上涨0.3%，将年率提升至2.6%，为2月份以来的最高水平。支 出疲软的背后是劳动力市场降温。实际可支配收入在5月份下降后持平，而工资和薪金几乎没有上涨。 预计将于周五公布的7月就业报告将显示招聘持续放缓，失业率略有回升。储蓄率保持在4.5%。 美国系列数据公布后，现货黄金短线波动暂不大，美元指数短线小幅走高。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos表示，（6月）核心PCE通胀看起来开始恶化，并不比美联储去年开始降息 时更好，从某些指标来看甚至更糟。6月份核心PCE物价指数3个月年化率为2.6%（去年同期为2.3%）。 按6个月年化计算，这一数字为3.2%（去年同期为3.3%）。 6月份的通胀数据是由商品价格上涨推动的，包括家居用品、运动器材和服装，这表明 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 on sales of $1.5 billion, with an operating margin of 11% [5][20] - Free cash flow reached $78 million, a significant increase from the previous year, representing a cash conversion of 108% [6][23] - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 18.3%, about 170 basis points better than planned due to favorable discrete items [21][22] - EBITDA was $182 million, up 12.2% of sales [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerials segment sales were $607 million, with an operating margin improvement of 500 basis points sequentially, but about 200 basis points lower than expected due to customer mix [23][24] - Materials Processing (MP) sales were $434 million, down 9% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 12.7%, showing a sequential improvement from 10% in Q1 [24][25] - Environmental Solutions (ES) generated $430 million in sales, with a 12.9% year-over-year growth and a 19.1% operating margin, reflecting strong performance [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Waste and recycling now represents approximately 30% of global revenue, characterized by low cyclicality and steady growth [14] - Utilities account for about 10% of revenue, with growth driven by the need to expand the power grid [14] - General construction has decreased to less than one-third of total markets, with strength in large projects and infrastructure, while local private projects remain soft [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging synergies across its portfolio, particularly following the ESG acquisition, and is ahead of initial synergy targets [16][19] - The company plans to maintain its full-year EPS outlook of $4.7 to $5.1, expecting stronger performance in Environmental Solutions in the second half [6][30] - The company is exploring digital revenue streams, particularly through the Third Eye platform, which enhances operational efficiency and safety [17][120] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macroeconomic factors, including high interest rates and tariff-related uncertainties, continue to impact capital decisions [13][15] - The company expects a significant increase in free cash flow compared to 2024, anticipating between $300 million and $350 million in 2025 [31] - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of its diversified end markets, particularly in waste and recycling, utilities, and infrastructure [14][15] Other Important Information - The company ended the second quarter with $1.2 billion in liquidity and plans to deleverage in the second half of the year [27] - A new $150 million share buyback program was authorized, with $33 million remaining from the previous authorization [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the strong ES margins? - Management attributed the strong ES margins to operational efficiencies, better execution in utilities, and favorable customer and product mix, although the favorable mix is not expected to recur in the second half [39][40][42] Question: What drove the $20 million adjustment in EBITDA guidance? - The adjustment was driven by stronger performance in ES, offset by unfavorable mix in Aerials and higher tariffs [47][49] Question: How do you view the margin outlook for Aerials? - Management expects Aerials' operating margin to be mid-single digits in Q3, driven by tariffs and unfavorable customer mix [55][56] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on the cost profile? - The company does not expect material impact from steel inflation due to hedging and local sourcing, but tariffs are included in the $0.50 guidance for the year [106][108] Question: How is the company addressing customer caution in the market? - Management noted that larger customers are maintaining their cadence for negotiations, while smaller customers remain cautious due to economic uncertainty [64][94]

据追风交易台消息，野村研究院最新报告显示，7月22日达成的日美关税协议虽然将对日出口关税降至 15%，但远未实现特朗普政府完全消除美对日贸易逆差的目标。 该协议预计仅能减少日本对美贸易顺差约70%，同时两者在贸易协议细节方面存在分歧。因此特朗普政 府可能继续施压，包括对制药和半导体行业加征新关税。 野村分析预计，协议将使日本实际GDP下降约0.55%，相当于名义GDP减少3.3万亿日元，日本经济在 2026年底前陷入衰退的概率达50%。 意外协议降低关税至15%，但无法消除逆差 据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议：对 日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资。 美日意外达成关税协议，但贸易分歧远未结束。 日本制药和半导体或面临新关税威胁 野村认为，该协议的时机完全出乎意料，此前美日在关税问题上的立场差距相当大。日本政府从一开始 就要求特朗普政府取消或大幅减少所有关税，包括汽车关税。从这个角度看，日本接受15%的关税率是 一个重大让步。 然而，根据野村估算，15%的对等关税将减少日本对美出口约2.2万亿日元。如果仅通过关税完全消除 日本的贸易顺差，需要 ...

截至发稿，纳斯达克100指数期货（2409合约）涨1.40%，标普500指数期货涨0.96%，道指期货涨0.26%。算上周三，标普500指数已经有25个交易日涨跌幅 均未超过1%了。 与此同时，霸气宣布"已在AI基建上领先"的微软盘前涨9%，即将迈入"4万亿美元市值俱乐部"；Meta也在强劲财报和树立"超级智能"AI愿景的影响下盘前大 涨11.13%。仅仅这两家公司盘前市值就增加5376亿美元，相当于人民币3.86万亿元。 （微软、Meta开盘后均将迎 来新高，来源：TradingView） 顺便一提，周四收盘后苹果和亚马逊也将发布财报，这两家公司的市值加起来也达到5.5万亿美元。 作为"白宫vs美联储"的关键评判指标，刚刚发布的美国6月PCE物价指数同比上升2.6%，核心PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，均高于预期值。 智通财经7月31日讯（编辑 史正丞）伴随着微软、Meta财报发布后的大涨，美股期指盘前走强，迎回了久违的波动性。 随着7月到此结束，一系列"特朗普关税"也将在明日生效。就常识而言，美国实际关税率的提升，会造成美国通胀压力的进一步走高。 在美国的主要贸易伙伴中，加拿大和墨西哥到目前为止仍未宣布与 ...

金十数据7月31日讯，多个投行分析师认为，美联储启动新一轮宽松周期只是几个月的问题。丹斯克银 行美国宏观分析师Antti Ilvonen称，由于贸易加权平均关税税率似乎接近20%，成本上升将继续对利润 率和家庭实际购买力造成压力。这将抑制新招聘，并在下半年给消费带来进一步压力，最终促使美联储 在9月份会议上恢复降息。富达国际高级全球宏观策略师Max Stainton也表示，关税对经济增长的冲击可 能大于预期，这种风险也在加大。贝伦贝格银行美国经济学家Atakan Bakiska称，在对2021-2022年的通 胀飙升做出误判，并且"行动太迟"未能及时提高利率之后，美联储如今在面对另一场供应冲击（关税） 时又犹豫不决了。 投行：关税可能促使美联储降息 ...

美国就业数据公司挑战者：人工智能、关税越来越多地成为美国裁员的原因。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a technical rebound during Asian trading on Thursday, recovering from a significant drop the previous day, and successfully stabilized above the 100-day moving average [1][3] - Prior to this rebound, gold prices had fallen sharply to approximately $3,270, reaching a one-month low due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) turned bearish, indicating that momentum favored sellers, as gold prices dipped below $3,300 per ounce and hit a three-week low [3] Group 2 - In the context of trade negotiations, Trump announced a 15% tariff on South Korean imports and a punitive 25% tariff on Indian imports, criticizing India's purchases of Russian energy and weapons [2] - Economists expressed concerns that the last-minute push for trade agreements could lead to greater economic costs for the countries involved, as they rush to avoid higher tariffs [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported constructive discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations and macroeconomic policies, emphasizing the importance of continued dialogue and cooperation [2]

当地时间30日，德国选择党联合领导人爱丽丝·魏德尔到访匈牙利并与匈牙利总理欧尔班会见。她在接 受播客节目采访时表示，欧盟与美国达成的贸易协议对美国总统特朗普有利，对欧盟并无益处，特朗 普"彻底欺骗"了欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和欧盟，该协议并没有反映欧洲人民的意愿，反而证明了欧盟 的软弱。艾丽丝·魏德尔表示，欧洲需要支付15%的关税，但零关税才是正确的选择。 德国选择党领导人：美欧贸易协议证明了欧盟的软弱 ...