Core Insights - Walmart reported strong quarterly performance but warned of price increases due to tariffs and economic instability [1][2] - The company experienced a 4.5% increase in same-store sales in the U.S. and adjusted earnings per share of $0.61, exceeding Wall Street expectations [1] - Despite the positive sales growth, there are concerns about fluctuating sales and the impact of tariffs on pricing strategies [1][3] Financial Performance - For the quarter ending April 30, Walmart's U.S. same-store sales grew by 4.5% [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $0.61, surpassing analyst forecasts [1] Economic and Trade Environment - The ongoing trade discussions and tariff policies create uncertainty, leading Walmart to refrain from providing current quarter revenue guidance [2] - The company highlighted that the retail environment is challenging, with unprecedented price increases affecting consumer behavior [2][3] - Walmart's CFO noted that the impact of tariffs is significant enough that retailers cannot absorb the costs [2] Consumer Behavior and Sales Trends - There has been a noted decline in sales of general merchandise, while grocery and pharmacy sales remain strong [1] - The company is preparing for potential impacts on short-term profits due to consumer shifts towards lower-margin grocery purchases [3] - Price increases are expected to become more apparent in May, affecting consumers reliant on Walmart's low-price strategy [1][2]

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：（关于经济衰退的可能性）我不会将其排除在外。 ...

摩根大通CEO戴蒙谈（美国）经济衰退的可能性："我不会排除这种可能性"。 我预计波动将持续。 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.38%, S&P 500 futures down 0.49%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.61% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.23%, France's CAC40 down 0.20%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.36% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is down 3.25% at $61.10 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 3.06% at $64.07 per barrel [3][4] Economic Data and Predictions - The US April PPI is expected to grow by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than the previous 2.7%, while core PPI is expected to grow by 3.1%, also lower than the previous 3.3% [5] - The US retail sales for April are expected to show a 0% month-on-month growth, significantly lower than the previous 1.4% [5] Company News - UnitedHealth (UNH.US) is down nearly 7% pre-market due to a criminal investigation by the US Department of Justice regarding potential healthcare fraud [9] - Cisco (CSCO.US) reports a 11% year-on-year sales growth to $14.1 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.96, exceeding analyst expectations [10] - CoreWeave (CRWV.US) reports a 420% year-on-year revenue increase to $982 million, but its profit guidance for Q2 falls short of expectations, leading to a nearly 5% pre-market drop [11] - Alibaba (BABA.US) reports a 62% year-on-year increase in net profit to RMB 129.47 billion ($17.84 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025 [12] - NetEase (NTES.US) shows a 34.94% year-on-year increase in net profit to RMB 10.301 billion ($1.4 billion) for Q1 2025 [13] - Beike (BEKE.US) reports a 34% year-on-year increase in total transaction volume to RMB 843.7 billion ($116.3 billion) for Q1 2025 [14] - Youdao (DAO.US) sees a 247.7% year-on-year increase in operating profit, driven by its "AI-native" strategy [15] - Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) reports a Q1 revenue decline of 9.8% to $1.2 billion but provides a positive Q2 revenue guidance above market expectations [15] Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include US April PPI, retail sales, and manufacturing indices scheduled for 20:30 Beijing time [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's Q1 net sales increased by 2.5% to $165.6 billion, slightly below expectations, while comparable sales grew by 4.5%, exceeding analyst forecasts [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company maintained its annual sales and profit forecasts for FY2026, expecting adjusted EPS between $2.50 and $2.60, with annual sales growth of 3% to 4% [3][10]. - Q1 operating income reached $7.14 billion, a 4.3% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 24.2%, up 12 basis points [4]. - The U.S. segment reported net sales of $112.2 billion, a 3.2% increase, with comparable sales growth of 4.5% [6][7]. E-commerce and Digital Growth - Global e-commerce sales grew by 22%, driven by in-store pickup, delivery, and third-party platforms, contributing approximately 350 basis points to U.S. comparable sales [5][8]. - The U.S. advertising revenue increased by 31%, excluding the newly acquired VIZIO, while global advertising revenue rose by 50% [5]. Market Resilience and Challenges - The U.S. market demonstrated strong resilience, particularly in health, wellness, and grocery categories, leading to a 7.0% increase in operating profit for the U.S. segment [6][8]. - CFO John David Rainey highlighted the challenging retail environment due to rapid price increases driven by tariffs, indicating that retailers cannot absorb all cost pressures [3][10]. International Performance - Walmart's international sales reached $29.8 billion, with a 7.8% increase when adjusted for currency, although operating income fell by 17.5% due to strategic investments in markets like Flipkart and Walmex [8][9]. Economic Outlook - The company is accelerating the development of high-margin digital businesses, including advertising and membership services, amidst declining consumer confidence and concerns over a potential economic recession [10].

摩根大通全球市场策略主管表示，美国或许可以避免经济衰退，随着全球贸易前景更加明朗，这种情境 发生的概率已有所下降。Dubravko Lakos-Bujas周四表示，他认为经济衰退的可能性为35%，并澄清称 这是他个人观点。摩根大通本周早些时候的官方评估仍认为风险"依然较高"，但低于50%。"与几周前 相比，情况确实更加明朗，"他在巴黎参加摩根大通举办的全球市场会议间隙对彭博电视的Francine Lacqua表示。"围绕贸易、关税和政策的一些不确定性开始得到控制。"（彭博） ...

鉴于美国国内对经济增长放缓和关税导致物价上涨的担忧，我们于3月26日开展了一项针对投资组合的情 景分析，详见本文。 点击图片查看大图 从市场角度来看，我们通过美国零息债券通胀率（反映通胀掉期市场预期的通胀水平）和美国盈亏平衡通 胀率（基于5年期固定期限国债计算的通胀预期）来评估通胀预期。这两个指标在过去六个月内持续上 自2024年9月起，美国通胀率持续攀升，直到今年2月势头才有所放缓。但根据纽约联邦储备银行的微观 经济数据中心和《消费预期调查》(Survey of Consumer Expectations) 显示，消费者对生活必需品价格上 涨以及未来一年因关税而加剧的通胀仍感担忧。 升。 点击图片查看大图 在美国经济增长预期下滑的当下，亚特兰大联邦储备银行对2025年第一季度GDP负增长的预测加剧了市 场对经济衰退的担忧。尽管美国并未真正陷入衰退，但市场对美国经济衰退的担忧仍在增长。 一般来说，经济衰退是指经济活动大幅衰减，连续两个季度GDP负增长通常被视为衰退。美国国家经济 研究局将经济衰退定义为持续几个月以上、在多个经济领域发生的全面性经济活动下滑，其他指标包括 GDP、就业率、工业产出以及消费支出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with 30-year yields approaching 5% and 10-year yields surpassing 4.5%, indicates significant market volatility and potential risks for U.S. debt credibility [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Treasury Yield Increase - The rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields since April is attributed to four main factors: 1. The U.S. government's excessive tariffs leading to inflation expectations [4]. 2. A decline in foreign investors' willingness to purchase U.S. debt [4]. 3. Rapid unwinding of Treasury basis trades due to soaring yields [4]. 4. A significant erosion of the reputation of U.S. debt as a global safe asset [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that long-term Treasury yields may continue to rise in the coming months, posing further risks to the U.S. economy and undermining the dollar's dominance [4][10]. - The current environment is compared to 2011, with expectations that funds flowing to European and Japanese markets may eventually return to U.S. Treasuries [6]. Group 3: Divergent Institutional Views - Domestic institutions have differing opinions on U.S. Treasuries: 1. CICC suggests that the recent softening of U.S. tariff attitudes and progress in U.S.-China trade talks have improved risk appetite, but the fundamental issues regarding the dollar's safe-haven status remain unresolved [6]. 2. Guotai Junan believes that the U.S. has sufficient safety mechanisms in place, and the short-term default risk is low, viewing U.S. Treasuries as more valuable than European or Japanese bonds in the long run [6]. Group 4: Credit Risk and Future Outlook - A report from Renmin University warns that the U.S. national credit is approaching a visible crisis, with 2025 potentially marking a significant downturn for U.S. debt [9][10]. - The U.S. debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [10]. - The report predicts that interest payments on U.S. debt could reach $13.8 trillion over the next decade, nearly double the inflation-adjusted total of the past 20 years [10]. Group 5: Global Trends in Treasury Holdings - Global central banks are continuously reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves dropping to 57.4%, the lowest in 30 years [11]. - The report suggests that the decline of U.S. Treasury credibility is not just a financial issue but signals a broader shift towards a multipolar currency system [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite weak sentiment data indicating an impending economic downturn, if a recession does not materialize, the U.S. stock market could experience a significant rally, potentially in double digits [1] - Historical data shows that when ISM manufacturing and consumer surveys decline sharply without leading to a recession, the U.S. stock market has averaged a 17% increase over the following 12 months [1] - Current conditions are favorable for a potential market rebound, as soft data contrasts sharply with strong hard data, indicating a historical extreme gap between pessimistic sentiment and optimistic facts [1] Group 2 - Despite a weak GDP performance in Q1 attributed to tariff disruptions, the company anticipates a significant reversal in Q2, projecting a 2% GDP growth and a potential rise in the S&P 500 index to nearly 6900 points if a recession is avoided [2] - Additional bullish factors for the summer U.S. stock market include progress in trade negotiations, policy shifts towards tax cuts and deregulation, and the return of manufacturing from emerging markets [2]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 中线行情： 4 月初特朗普对等关税措施远超市场预期，引发全球市场剧震并打压包括黄 金在内的全球金融资产；但因特朗普恃强凌弱蛮横无理反复无常损害美元信用引 发跨国资金抛离美国资产行为，来自全球贸易货币体系重组、美国和全球经济衰 退前景、以及美国金融市场波动性的三重避险需求推动 4 月 22 日伦敦金价突破 3500 美元/盎司；虽然部分多头获利平仓叠加特朗普政府安抚市场言论使得金价 有所回调，但整体看中级上涨趋势仍保持良好。我们判断特朗普以美国优先原则 推动国内外改革的决心并没有根本性变化 ...