Core Viewpoint - The news regarding Trump's consideration of Powell's successor has caused significant market reactions and discussions, highlighting the importance of timely information in investment decisions [1][4]. Group 1: Community Insights - The speed of information dissemination in the Sina Finance community is likened to lightning, allowing users to stay ahead of market trends and discussions [4]. - The community features a diverse range of financial professionals, experts, and seasoned investors, providing a platform for various analyses and discussions on significant news events [5][6]. - Users share their investment strategies in response to major events, such as opportunities in U.S. stocks, gold, or foreign exchange markets, offering practical insights for other investors [6]. Group 2: Quality of Content - Sina Finance community emphasizes the principle of "content is king," ensuring that valuable information stands out while minimizing noise [9]. - The community employs unique recommendation and filtering mechanisms to promote high-quality posts and comments, making it a valuable resource for investors seeking in-depth analyses and insights [9].

现货黄金周三早盘维持窄幅震荡，目前交投于3382美元/盎司附近。周二金价延续强势，一度触及近两 周高点3390.32美元/盎司，最终收报3380.65美元，实现连续第四个交易日上涨。这一轮上行行情背后， 美联储降息预期、特朗普政府政策变动及全球经济不确定性成为核心驱动力。 关税政策冲击：经济放缓与通胀压力并存 特朗普政府的关税政策对美国经济及黄金市场产生了复杂影响。6月美国贸易逆差收窄16%至602亿美 元，创两年新低，其中对华逆差骤降至95亿美元，为21年来最小值。这一变化主要源于对进口商品加征 关税导致的消费品和工业用品进口下滑。同时，资本财出口创历史新高，支撑第二季度GDP增长3%， 扭转了第一季度0.5%的萎缩局面。 然而，关税的副作用逐渐显现。7月美国服务业PMI下滑至50.1，低于市场预期的51.5，显示服务业活动 接近停滞。企业反馈称，高关税推高了投入成本，ISM支付价格指数升至69.9，创2022年10月以来新 高，就业指数则进一步下滑至46.4。Nationwide Financial Markets经济学家Oren Klachkin警告，高关税的 负面影响将盖过政策不确定性降低的积极效应。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with July non-farm payrolls adding only 19,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, and previous months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][2] - The unemployment rate remains stable, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in July, indicating that despite low job growth, the labor market is not in a state of crisis [3][4] - Labor force participation has been declining since May, with a total decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year by July, reaching the lowest level since November 2022 [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the end of July, but there were notable dissenting votes from two board members, highlighting internal divisions regarding monetary policy in light of the employment data [2][3] - The PCE price index showed a rebound, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% in Q2, suggesting that inflation pressures are still present, albeit at a moderated level [5] - The quality of employment is declining as the actual number of employed individuals decreases, with long-term unemployment rising to 1.83 million, the highest level since 2017, excluding the pandemic [4][5]

Group 1 - President Trump has narrowed down the list of candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chair to four individuals, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Vought, who prefers to remain in his current position [1][2] - The current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, is set to complete his term in May 2026, but Trump has repeatedly called for Powell's resignation [1][2] - The early announcement of the new chair, potentially before September or October, could influence investor expectations regarding future interest rate movements [1][2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Kugar announced her resignation, effective August 8, which allows Trump to make new appointments to the Federal Reserve Board sooner than expected [2] - Trump has expressed significant dissatisfaction with Powell, criticizing his handling of interest rates and calling for his resignation, stating that Powell is unfit for the role [2]

【导读】美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席 中国基金报 综合央视新闻、此前报道 美联储新任主席候选人名单，又缩短了！ 8月1日，美联储发表声明称，美联储理事库格勒将辞去美联储理事的职位，将于本月8日正式 卸任。美联储在声明中表示，库格勒将于今秋重返乔治城大学担任教授。美联储并未对库格 勒辞职作进一步说明。库格勒此前在拜登政府期间被提名，并于2023年获参议院确认成为美 联储首位拉丁裔女性理事。 库格勒的理事任期原定于明年1月结束，其提前离职使得美国总统特朗普可提前几个月对美联 储董事会进行新一轮人事任命。 今年以来，特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解除他的美联储主席职务。鲍威尔则表示，特朗普 作为总统没有解除其职务的合法权限，他将工作至任期结束。 另外，近期特朗普频繁发声，表达对美联储的不满。7月31日，美联储公布7月份货币政策会 议决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。特朗普在社交媒体上表 示："'太迟先生'杰罗姆·鲍威尔又是老样子！他行动太迟了，而且实际上，他太愤怒、太愚 蠢、太政治化了。" 特朗普称，鲍威尔根本不适合担任美联储主席一职，他正在让国家损失数万亿美元。特朗普 ...

Report Overview - The report is a gold weekly report covering the period from July 28, 2025, to August 3, 2025, analyzing the gold market's performance and influencing factors [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US job market unexpectedly cooled, leading to a significant rebound in the outer - market gold price. The international gold price first declined and then rose, showing an overall obvious increase. This week, the gold price is expected to fluctuate upwards [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On August 1, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 770.72 yuan/gram, down 0.85% from the previous week; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $3416/ounce, up 2.41%. The gold T + D spot price closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, down 0.77%, and the London gold spot price closed at $3362.64/ounce, up 0.79% [5][8] 1.2 Gold Basis - On August 1, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - $13.25/ounce, down $27.65 from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was - 0.26 yuan/gram, up 0.83 yuan from the previous week [9] 1.3 Gold Inner - Outer Disk Spread - The gold inner - outer disk spread fell significantly to - 17.48 yuan/gram. The gold - to - oil ratio decreased slightly, the gold - to - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - to - copper ratio rose significantly [12] 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings decreased slightly. The global largest SPRD gold ETF fund holdings were 953.08 tons, down 4.01 tons. The domestic gold T + D cumulative trading volume decreased by 31.31%. In terms of futures positions, as of July 29, the net long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased significantly. The COMEX gold futures inventory and the SHFE gold inventory increased [16] 2. Macro - fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The US Treasury's borrowing expectation for the third quarter exceeded $1 trillion. The US June JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, and the new hires decreased significantly. The US important housing price index fell for three consecutive months. The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate was better than expected, but the core PCE price index was higher than expected. Japan's central bank maintained the interest rate and raised the inflation forecast. The US July non - farm payrolls were far lower than expected [21][22][23][24][25][26][27] 2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - In July, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Powell cooled the market's expectation of a September rate cut. Some Fed officials believed the labor market was still stable, and inflation was the main concern [38][39][40] 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, with a slight increase of 1.04% to 97.67 [41] 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated downward, down 6bp to 1.90% [42] 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine situation were at a stalemate, which may increase market risk aversion [45]

宏观经济 | 专题报告 美国市场回调或为短期 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。 关税政策不确定性。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 ——海外札记 20250804 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 关税谈判推进，为市场注入确定性：—— | 2025-07-30 | | --- | --- | | 海外札记 20250729 | | | 《大美丽法案》后的流动性冲击：市场有 | 2025-07-23 | | 望涉险过关 | | | 多空分歧加剧，积极看待波动：——海外 | 2025- ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 954.8 tons of gold as of August 4, 2025, marking an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a reversal from prior reductions in holdings as gold prices have been rising [4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of August 4, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 954.8 tons, up by 1.72 tons from the previous day [4]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings coincided with a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a high of $3,385.5 per ounce and closed at $3,373.47 per ounce, reflecting a gain of $10.43 or 0.31% [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Recent economic data showed a non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July, with downward revisions of 258,000 for May and June, leading to market volatility and a shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy towards a more dovish stance [4]. - Concerns over the independence and credibility of economic data have been heightened following the dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by Trump and the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kaskel, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [4][5]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions and Technical Analysis - Citigroup has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500, citing deteriorating short-term economic growth and inflation outlooks in the U.S. [5]. - Technical analysis indicates a bullish outlook for gold, with the price having broken above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggesting potential for continued upward movement [5].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on the labor market, inflation, and the impact of tariffs and trade negotiations with China. [1][6][17] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Labor Market Data Revision**: The U.S. labor market data was significantly revised downwards, with July's job additions at 73,000 and a downward revision of 258,000 for the previous two months, leading to an average of only 35,000 jobs added over the last three months, the largest downward revision in decades. [2][3] 2. **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a potential slowdown in job creation despite the rate remaining relatively stable compared to last year. [2][3] 3. **GDP Growth**: The second quarter GDP growth rate was 3%, consistent with last year, but the internal demand growth rate fell to 1.2%, down from 2.4% last year, indicating weakening demand. [5] 4. **Impact of Tariffs**: New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised the effective tax rate from 10% to 20.5%, leading to increased inflationary pressures as companies may pass on costs to consumers. [11][12] 5. **Inflation Expectations**: Structural inflation is expected to rise in the second half of the year, driven by core commodity price increases due to tariffs, while rent and service prices remain moderate. [13] 6. **Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the labor market's downturn and inflation pressures, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September from 40% to 88%. [9][16] 7. **Trade Negotiations with China**: Current U.S.-China trade negotiations have not yielded substantial results, with ongoing challenges related to market access, energy purchases, and investment. [17][24] 8. **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Different sectors are affected variably by tariffs; technology companies are performing well, while manufacturing firms like General Motors and Ford are experiencing losses. [14][15] 9. **Geopolitical Factors**: The complexity of U.S.-China relations is compounded by geopolitical factors, including the U.S. stance on Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, which may further complicate trade negotiations. [24][25] Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Labor Participation Rate**: The labor participation rate has decreased from 62.7% last year to 62.2% this year, indicating a decline in labor supply, particularly among foreign-born populations. [3][4] - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment is cautious due to increased geopolitical risks and seasonal factors, with August and September typically being weaker months for the stock market. [26][27] - **Potential Cooperation Areas**: There are suggestions for exploring more cooperative areas between the U.S. and China, such as increased purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds by China, although feasibility remains uncertain. [20][21]

当地时间7月30日，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议后，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在。这虽然和美国总统特朗普长期以来的降息要求背道而 驰，但符合市场的基本预期。 然而值得注意的是，在本次美联储会议上，首次有2名理事在利率决议中投反对票，这是1993年以来首次有两名美联储理事在会议中投下反对票。 对此，美国彭博社在8月4日发布了一篇纽约联邦储备银行前行长（美联储三号人物）、现任瑞士银行非执行董事、比尔·达德利的文章称：两位理事的反对 不会影响到美联储的政策和履职；而这两位理事之所以投下反对票，是因为一位"要报恩"，一位"想上位"。 比尔·达德利彭博社 达德利认为，尽管特朗普在过去的很长一段时间中都不断通过媒体等方式向美联储主席鲍威尔施加压力，要求美联储降息，但"特朗普对鲍威尔几乎没有影 响力"。根据美国最高法院的规定，除非"有正当理由"，否则美联储主席不能被直接解职，而特朗普提不出这样的理由，并且鲍威尔卸任后也可能继续担任 美联储理事。因此，美联储的控制权被牢牢地控制在鲍威尔手中。 此前包括彭博社在内的多家媒体都在报道中强调，这是"1993年以来首次有两名美联储理事在会议中投下反对票"。达德利也同意，一般在 ...