美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）周一解释了他为何认为美联储应该更积极地降低利率。他再 次辩称，美联储的政策立场对经济过于限制，并指出他对通胀持乐观态度，同时称劳动力市场存在预警 信号。 米兰表示，剔除这些因素后，他估计"潜在通胀率低于2.3%，与我们的目标值基本一致。如果由于2022 年的供需失衡或统计测量过程中的误差，不必要地维持紧缩政策，最终将会导致就业岗位减少。" "经验表明，劳动力市场恶化可能迅速且非线性地发生，并且难以逆转，"他说道。"部分原因是货币政 策存在几个季度的滞后性，因此，正如我一直倡导的那样，加快宽松政策的步伐将使我们更接近中性立 场。" 米兰对美联储上周降息25个基点的决定持反对意见，他更倾向于降息50个基点。自今年9月休假离任特 朗普总统高级顾问一职、加入美联储以来，这已是他第三次投出反对票。 在上周的会议上，米兰的两位同事持反对意见，认为根本不应该降息，因为通胀最近没有朝着美联储的 目标迈进，许多美联储官员将此归咎于他们认为与特朗普政府进口关税有关的商品价格上涨。 米兰表示，目前高于目标水平的通胀并未反映出潜在的供需动态，而这些动态正在推动通胀使其更接近 美联储 ...

12月15日，沪金期货价格强势上涨，截至发稿主力合约报982.16元/克，涨幅1.82%。 渣打银行：预计黄金价格将于2026年再创新高，预计2026年黄金均价4,488美元/盎司，2026年第四季度均价为4,750美元/盎司。 光大期货：美联储为呵护金融市场流动性购买短债的动作以及缩表结束扩表预期成为推动金价再次走强的诱因，但结合对美联储1月降息预判以 及近期地缘政治走向，黄金推涨动力也并不强劲，整体来看或依然维系区间震荡内走势。 【消息面汇总】 金瑞期货：在降息周期已确认、市场流动性宽松的背景下，黄金的中期"定价锚"更偏向实际利率下行与避险需求抬升。从边际变化看，美联储降 息节奏与市场定价之间仍存在分歧，若后续数据使市场重新接受"降息放缓甚至暂停"，那么金价就容易出现深度回调。整体来看，明年美联储货 币政策有望继续保持宽松，且央行购金行为将继续，黄金中长期仍有较好的上涨前景。 力拓白银公司完成对秘鲁中部玛丽亚诺尔特金银铅锌矿产项目的收购。 机构观点 消息人士：马里法官已将3吨被扣押黄金归还巴里克矿业。 ...

转自：新华财经 •五矿期货：从宏观驱动来看金银的上涨动能相对弱化 •金瑞期货：贵金属短期调整不改长期趋势 下方空间相对有限 •五矿期货表示，美联储超预期的鸽派表态令白银价格表现强势，但议息会议短期的利多出尽也意味着 白银本身的涨势已进入加速阶段。回顾历史上的行情走势，国际银价往往在宽松货币政策周期中表现强 势。本次议息会议的宽松表态在超预期的同时，也显示了明年上半年美联储进一步宽松幅度有限。当前 点阵图仅显示一次降息操作，这意味着在明年5月鲍威尔正式卸任前的三次议息会议中很可能仅存在一 次降息，同时下一次点阵图的公布将在明年三月份议息会议。与此同时，鲍威尔在提及经济展望报告的 时候认为受到财政政策的支持、AI支出的延续以及消费者消费的影响下，明年美国经济预测基准将会 有所上调。而偏强的经济数据将对于联储宽松预期（2026上半年仍主要由鲍威尔执掌）形成利空因素。 从宏观驱动来看金银的上涨动能是相对弱化的。 •金瑞期货表示，美联储议息会议偏鸽，美债利率和美元走弱，对金银构成利好。但上周五市场风险偏 好整体下行，美股等资产显著下跌，白银因工业和投机属性，以及此前大幅上涨带来的获利了结压力， 出现明显的回撤。但中长期 ...

研究员 姓名：李津文 财达期货｜贵金属周报 2025-12-15 但上周五多位美联储官员在最新讲话中释放的"鹰派"信号， 推动美债收益率走高，美元反弹，美股和金银价格都出现下跌。 美国堪萨斯联储主席施密德表示，"劳动力市场正在降温，但 仍基本保持平衡；通胀仍过高，经济呈现增长势头，希望保持货币 政策适度限制性"。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，他之所以在本 周投下反对票，是因为他希望等待更多经济数据，以确定关税政策 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 4 页 F0244287 投资咨询号： Z0012495 冲高回落 牛市未变 上周金银市场总体呈现冲高回落，国际金价站稳在每盎司4300 美元，国际银价一度冲高至每盎司 65 美元，收盘在 62 美元附近。 从业资格号： 12 月 10 日，美联储如预期宣布降息 25 个基点，将基准利率 下调 25 个基点至 3.50%-3.75%区间，为年内连续第三次降息，年 内累计已下调 75 个基点。虽然点阵图显示明年可能只降息 1 次， 意味着未来再降息的门槛提高，但鲍威尔这次讲话并没有那么鹰派， 大意是就业市场仍然疲弱，如果没有关税因素，通胀已回落到 2%。 ...

12月15日，港股黄金股盘初拉升走强，其中，紫金黄金国际涨超6%领衔，赤峰黄金涨5.8%，潼关黄金 涨近3%，灵宝黄金、山东黄金、招金矿业均涨超1%。 消息上，亚洲早盘黄金小幅走高。现货黄金上涨0.6%，报每盎司4,324美元，不断逼近历史新高位。 Tickmill执行董事Joseph Dahrieh表示，金价继续受益于市场对美联储将进一步放松货币政策的坚定预 期、各国央行的持续买入，以及不断扩大的地缘政治风险，这些风险正维持着避险资金流。本周市场焦 点可能将是美国的主要政府数据，例如将于周二公布的11月就业报告和将于周四公布的11月CPI数据。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02259 | 紫金黄金国际 | 156.200 | 6.26% | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | 32.180 | 5.79% | | 00340 | 漳关黄金 | 2.950 | 2.79% | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 18.100 | 1.86% | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | 34.740 | 1.64% | | 01818 | 招 ...

成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 15 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝高位震荡。宏观上市场认为美联储主席鲍威尔的评论和 政策声明不如预期鹰派，这增强了美元抛售势头。由于通胀趋势和劳动力 市场的强劲程度仍不明朗，市场对明年美国货币政策的走向面临不确定性。 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：库存表现反复 年底消费分化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and economic data releases. Group 1: Market Data - As of December 15, the dollar index is trading around 98.446, while spot silver opened at $61.79 per ounce and is currently around $61.96 per ounce. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 14,500 yuan per kilogram, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 14,498 yuan per kilogram [1] - On December 12, silver ETF holdings increased by 19.74 tons to 16,102.9 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on monetary policy, with Goolsbee suggesting to wait for more data before considering rate cuts, while Schmid emphasized that inflation remains too high, advocating for a restrictive monetary policy [3] - Paulson highlighted a focus on employment risks, indicating that monetary policy remains restrictive, and Hamak noted a preference for a slightly more restrictive policy stance [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Former President Trump indicated a preference for either former Fed Governor Warsh or NEC Director Hassett to succeed the current Fed Chair [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the U.S. and Europe do not support Ukraine's NATO membership, suggesting a compromise for security guarantees, with discussions on a "peace plan" continuing [4] Group 4: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $57.86 last week, hitting a low of $57.276 before a strong rally influenced by fundamentals, reaching a high of $64.696, and closing at $61.947, forming a long upper shadow on a bullish candlestick [5] - Current trading strategies include holding positions at 37.8 and 38.8, with stop-loss adjustments at 63 and targets set at 62, 61.5, and 61, while preparing to exit if prices break below 60.5-60.1 [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly in the context of interest rate adjustments and inflation expectations. Core Insights and Arguments - **Divergence in Federal Reserve's Rate Path**: There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, with the dot plot indicating one cut each in 2026 and 2027, but lacking clear forward guidance. The market has largely priced in these expectations, leading to a muted response in U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] - **New Economic Balance in 2026**: The U.S. economy is expected to reach a new equilibrium in 2026, with GDP growth projected at approximately 2% and inflation around 3%. This reflects efforts to manage high inflation and economic pressures, with AI developments potentially alleviating labor market strains [6][8] - **Fragmented Rate Cuts Strategy**: The Federal Reserve may adopt a fragmented approach to rate cuts, adjusting based on economic data and conditions rather than implementing consecutive cuts. This strategy introduces uncertainty into monetary policy [7][8] - **Inflation Stability**: Inflation is anticipated to remain relatively stable but above historical levels in 2026, with total demand not expected to be particularly strong. The development of AI technology is expected to bring structural changes to the economy, influencing supply dynamics [8][9] - **Fiscal Deficit Management**: The U.S. fiscal deficit is not expected to spiral out of control, with increased tariff revenues playing a significant role. This is likely to have a limited impact on monetary and fiscal policy in the coming year [4][9] - **Impact of New Fed Chair**: While the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair may have marginal effects on policy decisions, the macroeconomic fundamentals will remain the primary determinants of monetary policy direction [3][5] Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Treasury Bonds**: Holding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds is considered a prudent investment strategy, given the current yield curve dynamics and the expected limited rate cuts in the near term [11] - **Dollar Stability in 2026**: The U.S. dollar is projected to maintain a passive stability in 2026, influenced by the independent monetary policies of various economies and the complexities of exchange rate dynamics amid de-globalization [12] - **Gold and AI Investment Outlook**: Gold is viewed as a risk asset with potential for long-term investment value, particularly if the stock market performs well. The AI sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, despite potential short-term challenges [13][14][15] - **Asset Allocation for Investors**: For ordinary investors, a recommended strategy is to allocate 80% of assets to fixed-income securities for lower risk, while 20% can be directed towards more aggressive investments, adjusting based on market performance [16][17]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a strong rally at the beginning of trading, with Zijin Mining International leading the gains, rising over 6% [1] - Other notable performers included Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining up 5.8%, Tongguan Gold up nearly 3%, and Lingbao Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining all rising over 1% [1][2] - The spot gold price increased by 0.6%, reaching $4,324 per ounce, approaching historical highs [1] Group 2 - Joseph Dahrieh, Executive Director of Tickmill, indicated that gold prices are benefiting from strong market expectations for further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, ongoing purchases by central banks, and escalating geopolitical risks [1] - This week, the market focus will be on key U.S. government data, including the November employment report to be released on Tuesday and the November CPI data on Thursday [1]

2025年12月15日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 单暂时止盈。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦反复，美联储货币政策意外转向 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：周五夜盘铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周五美股大幅走弱，市场讨论甲骨文和博通财报不及预期，风险偏好整体下行。供应端，铜矿紧张 | | | | | 格局延续，周度 TC 继续小幅下滑。精铜依然担忧伦敦挤仓，伦敦注销占比维持在 40%。国内精废价差 | 4400 | | | | 元附近，废铜票点上行 1.5%。 | | | | | 交易策略：观望等待买点。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：周五电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.91%，收于 22170 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-155 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 2875 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | ...