丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 万级规模量子芯片问世，量子计算产业持续突破 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 9 日，量子计算领域的创新企业 QuantWare 宣布推出新一代量子处理器单元 （QPU）架构，其 VIO - 40K 量子处理器能够支持创建包含 10000 个量子比特的芯片。此次万 级规模量子芯片的问世，突破了现有量子芯片的规模瓶颈，并证明了量子计算可以通过工程创 新突破物理极限。这或将加速量子计算的实用化进程，从而带动包括基础光电元器件、量子通 信核心元器件、量子通信传输干线、量子系统平台、以及应用层的量子科技全产业链发展。建 议关注量子科技全产业链，重点关注量子计算及量子通信龙头企业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 万级规模量子芯片问世，量子计算产业持续突 2] 破 [Table_Su ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the successful fundraising of 4.08 billion yuan by Zhongke Chuangxing, setting a record for early-stage hard technology funds in China, amidst a generally sluggish market [3][4] - The fund's strategy focuses on early, small, long-term investments in hard technology, supported by a diverse LP structure that includes national funds, insurance capital, and industry capital [3][4][12] - The investment landscape is shifting towards high-tech sectors like AI and quantum technology, with increased funding requirements and longer investment cycles [6][9] Fundraising and Investment Strategy - Zhongke Chuangxing's 4.08 billion yuan fundraising is significantly larger than the typical 1-2 billion yuan for early-stage hard technology funds in China [3] - The fund aims to mitigate risks associated with single capital sources by diversifying its LP structure, which now includes national-level mother funds and various types of capital [3][4][12] - The fund has already made 46 investment decisions within six months of its first closing, focusing on AI, biotechnology, and disruptive technologies [3][4] Market Trends and Investment Logic - The article highlights two key changes in the hard technology investment landscape: a consensus on strategic directions between the US and China, and a growing divide in funding availability for projects [6][9] - Investment in hard technology sectors is becoming more concentrated, with AI-related investments accounting for over 50% of funding, while quantum and nuclear fusion technologies see significant growth despite lower overall funding [10][11] - The article emphasizes the importance of sufficient fund size to participate in leading-edge projects, which has driven Zhongke Chuangxing to expand its fund size [8] Innovation and Incubation - Zhongke Chuangxing is adopting an "advanced incubation" model to address challenges in technology commercialization, providing funding and support to projects before they reach formal startup stages [14][15] - The company has successfully incubated several projects, including those from top universities, demonstrating its commitment to bridging the gap between research and market application [16][17] - The firm aims to enhance the success rate of technology commercialization, moving beyond the traditional 1-2% success rate of mature projects [16] Long-term Vision and Strategic Focus - Zhongke Chuangxing maintains a consistent investment strategy focused on five key hard technology sectors: material, energy, information, space, and life sciences [18] - The company aims to support the emergence of 1,000 hard technology champion enterprises in China, leveraging the ongoing engineer dividend period [18][19] - The firm is committed to fostering a more favorable innovation ecosystem to encourage long-term investments in significant innovations [19][20]

Macroeconomic News - The article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move for economic stability and security, not just a temporary measure. It is essential for maintaining long-term healthy economic development and meeting the growing needs of the people [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments issued an action plan to promote high-quality development of service outsourcing, aiming to cultivate internationally competitive leading enterprises by 2030 [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced the first batch of L3-level conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits, marking a significant step towards commercial application in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing [4]. - A price increase trend has emerged among lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode material manufacturers, with some leading companies negotiating price hikes of 2,000 to 3,000 yuan per ton as they prepare for 2026 [6]. Company News - Changchun High-tech announced that its subsidiary signed an exclusive licensing agreement for the GenSci098 injection project, which could yield up to $1.365 billion in milestone payments [9]. - TCL Technology announced that its subsidiary TCL Huaxing plans to acquire a 10.77% stake in Shenzhen Huaxing Semiconductor for 6.045 billion yuan [13]. - The company Huaxiang announced a significant asset restructuring involving the acquisition of 100% equity in Haicheng Ruihai and 80% equity in Electric Investment Ruixiang [10].

影响股市利好与利空消息 1、工业和信息化部15日正式公布我国首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车型准入许可，两款分别适配城市拥 堵、高速路段的车型将在北京、重庆指定区域开展上路试点，标志着我国L3级自动驾驶从测试阶段迈 入商业化应用的关键一步。 2、当地时间12月14日，一名X用户拍摄到一辆特斯拉Model Y在奥斯汀街头行驶的画面，车内似乎空无 一人，甚至没有配备安全监督员。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克晚些时候对此回应称："测试正在进行 中，车内没有人。"马斯克上周在一场活动上透露，特斯拉Robotaxi将在三周内取消安全员，实现真正 无人驾驶载客。 3、自12月上旬开始，磷酸铁锂正极材料生产厂商掀起集体提价潮。近日，从部分磷酸铁锂头部企业等 多个渠道了解到，在即将迎来2026年之际，多家磷酸铁锂企业开始和客户商谈价格，一些头部企业提出 了提价诉求，涨幅集中在2000~3000元/吨之间。 4、国家电网公司党组召开会议，会议强调，加快建设新型电力系统和新型能源体系，助力如期实现碳 达峰。 宏观新闻 1、12月16日出版的第24期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重 要文章《扩大内需是战略 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing a significant shift towards software-related issues, with software defects now accounting for a substantial portion of vehicle recalls, indicating a systemic risk that must be addressed through enhanced cybersecurity measures and a holistic approach to safety [7][15][19]. Group 1: Software-Related Recalls - In 2024, the total number of vehicles recalled globally due to software issues is projected to reach 13.4 million, which is over four times the number from 2023, representing 46% of all recalls [7][15]. - The ratio of recalls due to software defects is now nearly equal to that of traditional mechanical design defects, highlighting the growing importance of software safety in the automotive sector [7][15]. Group 2: Cybersecurity and Systemic Risks - The transition towards "new four modernizations" in the automotive industry, including electrification and connectivity, has expanded the attack surface for vehicles, necessitating urgent exploration of cybersecurity measures [7][9]. - Experts emphasize the need for a comprehensive, system-wide approach to automotive cybersecurity, integrating security from the ground up in the development process rather than as an afterthought [10][12]. Group 3: AI and Future Challenges - AI is seen as both an enabler and a potential source of unforeseen challenges in automotive cybersecurity, with the rapid evolution of AI technologies posing risks that are not yet fully understood [18][19]. - The integration of AI into automotive systems requires a reevaluation of existing security frameworks, as traditional methods may not adequately address the complexities introduced by AI [54][56]. Group 4: OTA Security Measures - Companies are implementing various strategies to ensure the security of Over-The-Air (OTA) updates, including dual backup systems and real-time user feedback during the update process [40][44]. - The balance between user experience and safety is critical, with companies prioritizing safety over convenience when necessary [41][44]. Group 5: Collaboration and Testing - Collaboration with third-party security firms for testing and validation is common, as companies recognize the need for external expertise in identifying vulnerabilities [50][51]. - Continuous testing and updates are essential for maintaining security throughout the vehicle's lifecycle, akin to regular health check-ups for humans [55].

Core Insights - A collaborative research team from the University of Colorado Boulder and Sandia National Laboratories has developed a super-miniature optical phase modulator, which is only one-hundredth the diameter of a human hair, capable of controlling laser frequencies with extremely low power consumption and high precision, providing core support for future large-scale quantum computers [1][2] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The new optical phase modulator utilizes microwave frequency vibrations oscillating billions of times per second to precisely control the phase of lasers, efficiently generating stable new laser frequencies on a chip [1] - The device's microwave power consumption is approximately 1/80 that of various commercial modulators while achieving the same functionality [1] Group 2: Implications for Quantum Computing - Lower power consumption leads to reduced heat generation, allowing for more optical channels to be densely packed and even integrated on the same chip, enabling unified and precise control of laser frequencies and phases for a large number of atoms [2] - This advancement supports the realization of a powerful and scalable atomic control system, essential for quantum computing [2] Group 3: Manufacturing and Industry Impact - The device is manufactured using CMOS technology in a wafer fabrication facility, which is the most mature and scalable manufacturing technology in the modern chip industry, widely used in smartphones, computers, and various electronic devices [2] - This achievement is expected to drive the transition of optical technology from large, high-energy traditional optical devices to highly integrated, low-power photonic chip platforms [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the strategic shift of Junlian Capital towards nurturing early-stage hard technology companies, aligning with national policies to support innovation and development in critical sectors [2][3]. - Junlian Capital's successful issuance of the first private venture capital institution's sci-tech bond in Beijing signifies a new financing channel, allowing for flexible capital allocation for investments and fund replenishment [2]. - The company is transitioning from a "hunter" model focused on discovering startups to a "farmer" model that emphasizes long-term support and cultivation of technology enterprises [3]. Group 2 - The National Social Security Fund and Beijing have launched a special fund, with Junlian Capital appointed as the manager, focusing on breakthrough hard technology projects rather than early-stage investments [4]. - The first phase of the fund, with a scale of 5 billion yuan, has already invested in 19 projects across various fields, including artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, quantum computing, and semiconductor materials [4]. - Junlian Capital is committed to providing extensive post-investment management and support to ensure the growth and operational efficiency of the invested companies [4][5]. Group 3 - Junlian Capital's investment philosophy prioritizes deep insights into industry trends and technology directions, emphasizing the importance of understanding the dynamics of both projects and teams [6]. - The company believes in the synergy between the right team and the project, focusing on building a capable team that can navigate both technical and market challenges [6]. - The investment process is viewed as a continuous learning journey, where firms must identify their strengths and boundaries to excel in their chosen investment domains [7].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "globalization and AI+" in advancing high-quality development in the defense and military industry, highlighting the need for modernization and efficiency improvements in military systems [5][30][34] - The investment strategy focuses on balancing value and growth, with traditional sectors entering an S-curve evolution phase while new demands and replacements coexist [5][30] Section Summaries 1. Current Development Stage from the S-Curve Perspective - The defense and military industry is in a growth phase, with traditional sectors experiencing rapid development during the previous five-year plan, but not yet entering a slowdown [16][26] - The S-curve model indicates that the industry lifecycle includes multiple product lifecycles, with the current focus on extending product lifespans through innovation [23][24] 2. S-Curve Cycle Expansion - Global military trade remains robust, emphasizing the importance of lifecycle management from equipment to services [9][18] - The report anticipates that the demand for large aircraft and low-altitude economic activities will accelerate due to supportive policies [9][28] 3. S-Curve Cycle Evolution - Supply chain reforms are crucial for reducing costs and complexity, enhancing the focus on maintenance and repair services [9][33] - The integration of unmanned systems and intelligent technologies is expected to drive significant advancements in military capabilities [9][51] 4. New Cycle of the S-Curve: Emerging Industries - The report identifies commercial aerospace, AI, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum information, and deep-sea technology as key areas for future growth [9][57][65] - The acceleration of technological advancements and policy support is expected to unlock new market opportunities in these sectors [9][58] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that align with the evolving S-curve, particularly those involved in supply chain reform, maintenance, and unmanned systems [5][30] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include 航发动力, 中航高科, and 国睿科技, among others, which are positioned to benefit from these trends [6][9]

Core Insights - The report by Changcheng Strategic Consulting highlights the continuous growth of potential unicorn companies in China, characterized by an increasing number, dominance of cutting-edge technology, and a concentration of capital and talent [1][2] Group 1: Potential Unicorn Companies Overview - As of the end of 2024, there are 816 potential unicorn companies in China, with 255 newly added [1] - 67% of these companies were established within the last five years and have a valuation of at least $100 million, while 33% were founded 5-9 years ago with a valuation of $500 million [1] - The number of potential unicorns has increased from 296 to 816 over the past six years, representing a growth of approximately 1.8 times [1] Group 2: Industry Distribution - Potential unicorns are primarily concentrated in the chip and innovative drug sectors, each exceeding 100 companies [2] - The renewable energy sector has 76 companies, while the new materials sector has 61 companies [2] - Emerging industries such as embodied intelligence, synthetic biology, hydrogen and nuclear fusion, quantum computing, and brain-computer interfaces have 48 potential unicorns [2] Group 3: Financing and Investment Trends - In 2024, 50% of potential unicorns (409 companies) secured new financing totaling nearly $13 billion, marking an 18.7% year-on-year increase [2] - Over 60% of companies in sectors like chips, new semiconductors, robotics, and new energy vehicles received new financing [2] - 24 companies received over $100 million in financing, with the electric vehicle, chip, and innovative drug sectors leading [2] Group 4: Incubation and Founder Characteristics - 83 industrial enterprises incubated 95 potential unicorns, an increase of 12 from the previous year, with nearly 30% of incubators being state-owned enterprises [3] - Founders of potential unicorns predominantly have advanced degrees, with nearly 90% holding PhDs or master's degrees, and many have backgrounds as executives in large companies or as scientists [3] - The report emphasizes that potential unicorns are crucial for driving new productive forces in China, transitioning from rapid growth to high-quality development [3] Group 5: Standards and Research Background - Changcheng Strategic Consulting, in collaboration with the China Standardization Research Institute, has drafted a national recommended standard for high-growth enterprises, including unicorns and potential unicorns [4] - The organization has been publishing the Chinese unicorn list and research reports since 2016, with this being the sixth report in the potential unicorn series [4]

Group 1: 6G Technology Development - China Mobile has released a white paper and prototype for 6G transmission technology, predicting that by 2040, the number of 6G terminal connections will reach 1.216 billion, growing over 30 times from 2022 [1] - Dongguan Securities reports that the consensus on 6G standards is increasing, with key architectural decisions expected to be made in a relatively short time frame as the industry approaches a period of technological iteration and policy benefits in 2025 [1] Group 2: Commercial Space Industry - SpaceX's internal stock pricing has reached $421 per share, valuing the company at $800 billion, potentially leading to the largest IPO in history [3] - The commercial space industry is at a critical turning point, with supportive policies and technological breakthroughs driving growth, particularly in satellite manufacturing and launch services [3] - Companies like Xunwei Communication and Tongyu Communication are actively developing technologies for satellite communication and have established partnerships with SpaceX [4] Group 3: Quantum Computing Advancements - Google is collaborating with the UK National Quantum Computing Centre to explore applications for its Willow quantum processor, with predictions that quantum computing will mainstream within two years and replace GPUs by 2030 [5] - Companies like Shaanxi Huada and Guoshield Quantum are making strides in quantum computing technologies, with products aimed at the quantum computing market [6] Group 4: AI in Healthcare - The Zhejiang Provincial Government has awarded a contract worth approximately 206 million yuan to Alipay for the development of a medical AI innovation service platform, addressing common industry challenges [7] - The AI healthcare market in China is projected to grow from 2 billion yuan in 2019 to 64 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 43.1% expected through 2033 [7] - Companies like RunDa Medical and Kangzhong Medical are actively developing AI solutions for healthcare, enhancing operational efficiency and expanding their product offerings [8] Group 5: Nuclear Fusion Industry - The nuclear fusion sector is experiencing a surge in project bids, with significant funding and interest from major tech companies like Google and Microsoft, indicating a strategic shift towards fusion energy [9] - Companies such as Sichuan Electronic and Xuguang Electronic are engaging in various nuclear fusion projects, establishing technical collaborations to advance the industry [10] Group 6: Photovoltaic Industry Developments - The establishment of a "polysilicon production capacity integration acquisition platform" by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association marks a significant step in the industry, aiming to improve supply chain efficiency [11] - Companies like Tongrun Equipment and Tuori New Energy are leveraging their strengths in the photovoltaic sector, focusing on the entire value chain from silicon purification to solar power plant operations [11]