美国总统特朗普表示，他期望下一任美国联邦储备委员会主席能保持低利率，并且绝不与他"意见相 左"。 特朗普是在周二发表上述言论的，当时正在对即将离任的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的接替人选进行面 试。 特朗普在其社交平台上发表了一篇长文，写道："如果市场表现良好，我希望我的新美联储主席降低利 率，而不是无缘无故地摧毁市场。" "美国应该因成功而获得回报，而不是被成功拖垮。任何与我意见相左的人，都永远不会成为美联储主 席！" 自今年二月重返白宫以来，特朗普不断向美国中央银行——美联储施压，要求其降息，以期推动美国整 体经济增长。 特朗普还曾因美联储主席鲍威尔未遵循其降息指令而威胁要解雇他，并公开称其为"笨蛋"和"重大失败 者"。总统关于鲍威尔继任者的言论，加剧了外界对美联储未来能否保持独立、免受政治干预的担忧 ——这在美国是一项长期传统。 美联储今年已三次下调基准利率，至12月中旬的3.5%至3.75%。但特朗普此前曾暗示，利率应低至1%。 降低利率会使借贷成本更低并刺激支出，但过快或过大幅度地降息会加剧通货膨胀的风险。 波托马克河资本公司首席投资官、美联储历史学家迈克尔·桑德尔告诉媒体，特朗普正在向下一任美联 储主 ...

| Brokerage | 2026 S&P 500 index target | | --- | --- | | BofA Global Research | 7,100 | | Societe Generale | 7,300 | | Barclays | 7,400 | | UBS Global Research | 7,500 | | Jefferies | 7,500 | | HSBC | 7,500 | | J.P.Morgan | 7,500 | | Canaccord Genuity | 7,500 | | BNP Paribas | 7,500 | | Goldman Sachs | 7,600 | | Citigroup | 7,700 | | UBS Global Wealth Management | 7,700 | | Evercore ISI | 7,750 | | Morgan Stanley | 7,800 | | Seaport Research Partners | 7,800 | | Deutsche Bank | 8,000 | | Oppenheimer Asset ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the probability of interest rate cuts in January 2026 has converged due to better-than-expected growth, with the potential for about three rate cuts remaining that year [1] - CME data shows a shift in the outlook for interest rate cuts, reflecting a change in economic conditions [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, Hassett, emphasized that the growth foundation is supported by declining prices, rising incomes, and improved sentiment, suggesting that if GDP growth remains around 4%, new job additions could return to the range of 100,000 to 150,000 per month [1] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the third-quarter growth primarily reflects the easing of inventory and trade disruptions, which is insufficient to alter the trend of weakening employment [1] - With employment becoming a focal point for policy considerations and the selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman progressing, there remains a possibility for approximately three interest rate cuts in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a significant likelihood of rate cuts in the future [1] Interest Rate Predictions - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate is 88% [1] - There is a 12% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 1.6% probability of a cut exceeding 50 basis points [1] - The likelihood of an increase of 25 basis points is less than 1% [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Polymarket forecasts a 23% probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points by 2026 [1] - There is a 22% probability for a total cut of 75 basis points, a 16% probability for 100 basis points, and an 11% probability for 125 basis points [1]

24日，最新公布的美国上周初请失业金人数低于预期，美联储一月降息概率或进一步降低。 此外，对美联储，特朗普也释放最明确信号。据最新消息，特朗普表示，他希望自己提名的美联储主席能在经 济向好时降息。特朗普说道："与我意见相左的人永远都当不上美联储主席。" 对于特朗普的最新表态，有外媒评论称，这是迄今最明确的信号，显示特朗普渴望能提名一位致力于降息的美 联储主席。 降息大消息 12月24日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国12月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数降至21.4万人，预期和前值 为22.4万人。这一数字已回落至2021年11月的水平，表明劳动力市场仍未见明显压力。 数据显示，美国劳动力市场裁员规模持续保持在低位。虽然百事、惠普等企业近期宣布了裁员计划，但尚未观 察到大规模实际裁员的出现。 就业市场的回温使得美联储一月降息概率或进一步降低。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储2026年1月降息25个基点的概率为15.5%，维持利率不变的概率为84.5%。美联 储到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为42.2%，维持利率不变的概率为51.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 6%。 贝莱德策略师指出，美联储在2026年预 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, lower than the expected 224,000, indicating a stable labor market [2][10] - The U.S. labor market continues to show low levels of layoffs, despite some companies like Pepsi and HP announcing job cuts [2][10] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 15.5%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 84.5% [3][11] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed will implement limited rate cuts in 2026, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 42.2% by March 2026 [3][11] - The Fed has already cut rates by 175 basis points in the current cycle, nearing neutral rate levels, limiting further cuts unless the labor market deteriorates significantly [3][11] Group 3: Trump's Influence on Federal Reserve - Trump expressed a desire for his nominated Federal Reserve chair to lower rates during economic upturns, indicating a preference for a dovish monetary policy [4][12] - Trump's comments reflect his political pressure to address voter concerns about affordability, suggesting that lower rates could benefit the housing market [4][12] Group 4: Gold and Silver Market Trends - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,525.83 per ounce, while silver also hit a record high of $72.7 per ounce, driven by expectations of future rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [7][16] - Gold has increased over 71% this year, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [7][16] - Predictions from Goldman Sachs and other banks indicate that gold prices may continue to rise, with a target of $4,900 per ounce by 2026 [8][17]

【导读】美股微涨，黄金白银新高之后，跳水了！ 中国基金记者泰勒 大家好，今晚美股要过圣诞节提前收市，咱们就简单看一下一些市场发生的事情，祝大家快乐！ 瑞银全球财富管理的Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi本周表示："我们认为投资者应为股市进一步上行做布局。我们仍维持对美股的'有吸引力'评级。 我们在科技、医疗、公用事业以及金融板块都看到了有说服力的机会，这也有望让后续上涨的基础更广、更扎实。" 在解读最新经济数据时，交易员仍坚持对明年降息路径的判断：预计美联储明年将两次各降息25个基点——比官员们最新的利率预测中位数多 一次。 美国上周初请失业金人数下降，显示每年此时数据存在明显季节性波动。 Principal Asset Management的Magdalena Ocampo本周表示："目前我们仍预计明年会降息两次，可能集中在上半年。只要失业率不出现失控上 升，那么韧性的经济、降温的通胀以及更宽松的政策环境，都有望在来年继续支撑风险资产表现。" 个股方面，英特尔下跌。有报道称，英伟达暂停了一项测试：该测试原计划使用英特尔的18A制程技术来生产其芯片。 美股微涨 12月24日晚间，美股三大指数小 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tsinghua University has issued a statement addressing unauthorized recruitment activities conducted by individuals and organizations misusing its name, emphasizing that it has not authorized any such activities and will pursue legal action against violators [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Unauthorized Activities**: The statement highlights that several schools, parents, and students have reported instances of individuals and organizations falsely claiming to represent Tsinghua University for recruitment purposes, spreading misinformation about admission policies [1]. - **Legal Rights**: Tsinghua University asserts that any activities conducted under its name without authorization are considered infringement, and the admissions office reserves the right to take legal action against those responsible [1].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普已将美联储主席候选人范围缩小至四人，华尔街共识认为，白宫顾问凯文·哈塞特 （Kevin Hassett）将获得这一职位。 但至于谁"应该"获得这一职位，华尔街许多人表示：绝非哈塞特。 为何会存在这种分歧？让哈塞特成为热门人选的原因，恰恰是批评者担忧的焦点——与特朗普关系如此 密切的人，无法成为一名独立的美联储主席。 然而，此次美联储领导层更迭颇具特殊性：总统希望任命一位不符合传统"独立"概念的美联储主席。他 希望有人支持其整体经济议程，这意味着要大幅降息。 特朗普在周二的社交媒体帖子中明确表达了这一点。他赞扬了强劲的三季度经济增长报告，随后哀叹 道，市场往往会在利好消息发布时抛售，因为预期美联储会为避免通胀而加息。 事实上，周二市场并未下跌。美联储也从未因利好消息而加息。过去两年，美国经济增长稳健，股市屡 创纪录，而美联储始终在降息。这是因为美联储认为，与失业问题相比，通胀问题不那么值得担忧。 但对特朗普来说，这还不够。"我希望我（任命）的新任美联储主席在市场表现良好时降息，而不是毫 无理由地摧毁市场。我想要一个几十年来从未有过的强劲市场 ...

Economic Overview - The US economy is in the later stages of a soft landing following a high inflation and interest rate cycle, with internal momentum weakening[4] - Consumer spending is showing signs of weakness compared to last year, while AI investments are supporting overall investment levels[4] - The labor market is cooling, with credit growth for households and businesses at low levels, indicating characteristics of a potential economic downturn[4] Labor Market - The employment rate has dropped to levels comparable to 2009, with voluntary resignation rates falling to 2008 levels, while layoffs remain low[5] - The unemployment rate is gradually rising but remains at a relatively reasonable level, particularly affecting younger demographics[5] - A significant portion of the unemployed is concentrated among younger individuals, indicating a need for substantial interest rate cuts[5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Short-term inflation pressures are low, but medium to long-term inflation risks persist, with the Fed expected to cut rates by 50-75 basis points in 2026[6] - Tariffs are acting similarly to consumption and intermediate goods taxes, suppressing consumption and investment, with their effects expected to diminish by mid-2026[6] - The Fed's current monetary policy is neutral and insufficient to alleviate rising unemployment rates[6] Fiscal Policy and Investment - The US is expected to experience a dual easing of monetary and fiscal policies, which may help avoid a full-blown recession[7] - The capital market is seeing a decrease in the correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and policy rates, indicating a belief that rate cuts may be nearing their end[7] - AI investments are significantly boosting fixed investments, counteracting the suppressive effects of high interest rates on overall investment[4] Stock Market Outlook - The US stock market is currently viewed as being in a bubble, with the S&P 500 exceeding its long-term trend by 41%[8] - Despite the bubble, the short-term risks to the stock market are considered low due to the easing of regulations and the AI investment boom[8] - Caution is advised in maintaining long-term positions, with close monitoring of liquidity flows recommended[8]