Group 1 - Boston Federal Reserve President Collins expressed an open attitude towards further interest rate cuts this year, contingent on supportive data, amidst expectations of easing inflation pressures next year [1] - Collins reiterated support for the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, suggesting that maintaining a "moderately tight" policy could help balance risks in the job market while restoring price stability [1] - Recent Federal Reserve meetings indicated that policymakers expect more rate cuts within the year and anticipate further easing in 2026, despite ongoing inflationary pressures from large tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - The latest data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that job vacancies remained stable at 7.23 million in August, only slightly up from the revised 7.21 million in July, indicating a significant decline since the peak in early 2022 [1] - The trend suggests a balance in labor demand, but also indicates reduced hiring by employers and longer times for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, reflecting a softening job market [2] - Consumer confidence data for September revealed a decline of 3.6 points to 94.2, marking a five-month low and falling short of market expectations, with both current and future expectations indicators weakening [2]

智通财经APP获悉，美国股市中风险最大的板块在过去几周里表现强劲，过去四年里因小盘股而遭受过 多次损失的投资者们将这些账面收益变现。从追踪罗素 2000 指数的最大交易所交易基金(ETF)的资金流 动情况来看，投资者正在以极快的速度套取利润，而且他们的获利速度几乎与撤资速度同步。今年已有 约 54 亿美元资金从 iShares 罗素 2000 ETF中撤出，而该指数也已攀升至历史新高。 自疫情以来，小盘股的表现一直逊于大盘股。在 2022 年的熊市中遭受重创，并且在随后的广泛牛市中 也没有迅速反弹。该板块往往在经济繁荣、利率相对较低时表现更佳，因为许多公司没有盈利，需要借 款来维持运营。 不过，市场上的不安情绪却十分普遍。从小型企业股票到加密货币，再到毫无盈利前景的科技公司，这 些高风险资产的价格已经开始显得过高，而投资者也纷纷获利了结。 富国投资研究所全球股票与实物资产部门主管Sameer Samana说道："不幸的是，此次降息的速度将会缓 慢且有计划性，而且企业盈利的基本前景仍不容乐观，这就是投资者纷纷获利离场的原因。" 研究公司Ned Davis Research指出，罗素指数的突破并未得到标普小盘股 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储杰斐逊：支持降息以平衡通胀和就业风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing varied trends across different currency pairs, with specific attention on the movements of GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD, as well as upcoming economic data releases from the US and Europe [1][2][10]. Group 1: Currency Trends - GBP/USD is showing a bearish to neutral trend, with a need for confirmation of upward momentum despite recent price rebounds [1][7]. - USD/JPY is facing short-term resistance at 148.84, with potential for further upward movement if this level is breached [1][7]. - EUR/USD is fluctuating within a range of 1.1700-1.1780, indicating a slight increase in market volatility without a clear trend direction [1][8]. - AUD/USD has recently broken above a previous high, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend if it maintains above 0.6610 [1][9]. Group 2: Economic Insights - Federal Reserve officials emphasize the need for a tight monetary policy to combat inflation, with varying opinions on the labor market's impact on interest rate decisions [2]. - The Bank of England's deputy governor suggests there is room for further rate cuts, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [5]. - The European Central Bank's chief economist indicates a moderate inflation outlook, suggesting a willingness to keep rates unchanged for the time being [4]. - Brazil's central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 15.00% through the end of 2025, aligning with previous forecasts [2]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases to watch include the US August JOLTs job openings, September consumer confidence index, and various European economic indicators [10].

整体需求尚未出现明显的爆发式增长，仍处于缓慢恢复阶段。从国内外库存数据来看，国外铅库存下跌， 国内库存也呈现下跌趋势，仓单数量同样下降，整体库存下降表明需求在一定程度上拉动了库存去化。国 | | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16940 | 85 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1997 | -4.5 | | | 11-12月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -45 | -15 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 72939 | -6723 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -2066 | -1650 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 29568 | -2378 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 41894 | -7315 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 218825 | -600 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16800 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/ ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) followed the Federal Reserve's rate cut on September 18, reducing the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, indicating potential further declines in interest rates due to the Fed's ongoing easing policy [4][12]. - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) appreciated slightly against the US dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.7839 on September 29, compared to 7.7963 at the end of August, reflecting a stable banking system surplus of HKD 54.2 billion [13]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 6.16% over the past month, with the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 11.45% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 5.66% [5][15]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hang Seng Index reached 12.06 times, placing it in the 79.7% percentile of the past decade, while the average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was 1.23 times, in the 83.6% percentile [19][21]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The materials sector saw the highest increase, with an 18.4% rise, followed by non-essential consumer goods at 17.8%, while telecommunications experienced the largest decline [15][17]. - Notable performers in the sub-sectors included other metals and minerals, food additives, and online retailers, which rose by 39.9%, 31.5%, and 31.2% respectively [17]. Group 4: Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflows reached over HKD 160 billion in September, marking a four-year monthly high, with total inflows for the year surpassing HKD 1 trillion for the first time [25][27]. - The sectors attracting the most inflows included non-essential consumer goods, healthcare, and information technology [27].

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut, with only the new member Milan voting against it, advocating for a 50 bp cut[6] - The dot plot indicates an increase in expected rate cuts from 4 to 5 times between 2025 and 2027, with 2025 seeing an adjustment from 2 to 3 cuts[8][11] - Economic forecasts show an increase in GDP growth and inflation predictions, while unemployment rates are expected to remain low[7] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped from 4.05% to below 4%, but rebounded to around 4.08% after Powell's press conference[11] - Short-term rates have fully priced in the rate cuts, while long-term rates remain constrained by high inflation and term premiums[11] Future Considerations - The independence of the Federal Reserve may be tested in 2026, particularly with political pressures from the Trump administration and upcoming midterm elections[5][11] - The market's current pricing of rate cuts may be overly optimistic, with potential volatility if inflation rises or employment data improves unexpectedly[16] Investment Strategy - Buying long-term bonds on dips may be a favorable strategy, as the market appears to have adequately priced in long-term risks[17]

【导读】澳大利亚维持关键利率不变，暗示物价压力再度上升 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，马上就要放长假啦！一起简单关注一则澳大利亚央行维持利率不变的消息。 理事会在声明中表示："鉴于私人需求出现复苏迹象、部分领域通胀或具有黏性，以及劳动市场整体保 持稳定，理事会认为维持现金利率在当前水平是合适的。" 交易员将11月降息的押注下调至不足50%，澳元上涨至0.6607美元。 这一决定出台之际，一些经济学家已将他们对RBA第四次降息的预期从今年推迟到明年，先前他们预 计11月会放松政策。原因是在就业市场依然紧张的情况下，人们担心物价压力会再次上升。 与之相比，RBA本次"暂停"发生在美联储本月自去年12月以来首次降息之后。货币市场定价显示，到今 年年底，美联储还有大约两次降息的可能。相比之下，RBA下一次降息在明年2月已被完全计入，引发 美澳政策进一步背离的前景。 布洛克上周在议会作证时表示，国内经济数据"符合"或"强于"RBA预期。官员们还指出，经济正处 于"周期性上行"阶段，私人部门需求回升。瑞银集团本月的一项私人消费者调查显示，自六年前有记录 以来的最强读数。 理事会称："房地产市场正在走强，表明近期降息正在产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor, Dave Ramsden, indicated that the central bank could continue to lower key interest rates while aiming to bring inflation down to the 2% target, suggesting a cautious and gradual approach to monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates five times since August 2024, with a pace of 25 basis points every three months [1] - Ramsden's comments suggest potential support for continuing this trend in the upcoming November meeting [1] - There are concerns among other committee members about stagnant wage growth despite prolonged high interest rates [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - UK inflation has seen a rebound this year, primarily driven by government policy impacts, such as significant increases in water fees [1] - Food prices have also risen rapidly, raising concerns about household sensitivity to price changes following previous surges in 2022 and 2023 [1] - Ramsden noted that inflation expectations have become more sensitive to food price increases [1] Group 3: Currency Market Analysis - The GBP/USD exchange rate has struggled to maintain above the 21-day simple moving average, currently at 1.3509, and has resumed a downward trend [1] - The currency pair has broken below key support levels, including the 100-day moving average at 1.3487 and the 50-day moving average at 1.3468 [1] - If the downward trend continues, the initial support level is at 1.3300, with further potential declines targeting the August 4 low of 1.3254 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3127 [1]

港股晨报 2025 年 9 月 30 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 周一，港股三大指数均表现强势，恒生指数涨 1.89%，国企指数涨 1.62%，恒 生科技指数涨 2.08%。大市成交金额 3090.96 亿元，主板总卖空金额 409.01 亿 元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 14.76%。南向资金流（北水）反转流出。港 股通净流出金额为 16.54 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最 多的是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、腾讯控股 700.HK、小米集团-W 1810.HK；净卖出最 多的是盈富基金 2800.HK、中国移动 941.HK、美团 3690.HK。北向资金方面， 9 月 30 日北向资金共成交 2946.18 亿元，占两市总成交额的 13.63%。紫金矿 业 601899.SH、中信证券 600030.SH、寒武纪 688256.SH 位列沪股通成交前三， 成交额分别为 31.38 亿、27.23 亿、23.41 亿；宁德时代 300750.SZ、东方财富 300059.SZ、阳光电源 300274.SZ 位列深股通成交前三，成交额分别为 37.86 亿、33.92 ...