消息面上，最新数据显示，美国4月PPI环比意外下跌0.5%，其中服务价格下降0.7%，创2009年以 来最大单月跌幅。鲍威尔发表言论，美联储正在调整其总体政策制定框架，零利率已不再是一个基本情 况，需要重新考虑就业不足和平均通胀率的措辞，并预计4月PCE降至2.2%，通胀预期减弱，将会继续 提升降息前景，而会支持金价。隔夜COMEX黄金期货涨1.74%报3243.90美元/盎司。 今日开盘，金价强势反弹，SGE黄金9999涨幅达1.7%，相关ETF——黄金基金ETF（518800）涨超 1.6%。 黄金基金ETF（518800）投资金交所现货合约，紧密跟踪金价走势，场内T+0交易，相较于购买黄 金实物资产等更加快捷方便，流动性也更好。 注：市场观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。黄金基金ETF主要投资对象为黄金现货合 约，预期风险收益水平与黄金资产相似，不同于股票基金、混合基金、债券基金和货币市场基金。如需 购买相关基金产品，请您详阅基金法律文件，关注投资者适当性管理相关规定，提前做好风险测评，并 根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编 ...

回撤方面，截至2025年5月15日，上海金ETF今年以来相对基准回撤0.15%，在可比基金中回撤风险较低。 2025年5月16日，现货黄金震荡反弹，向上触及3250美元/盎司。ETF方面，截至 09:32，上海金ETF(159830)上涨1.73%，最新价报7.48元。从资金净流入方面 来看，上海金ETF近3天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1350.59万元。 截至5月15日，上海金ETF近1年净值上涨31.69%，排名可比基金前2，贵金属基金排名3/47，居于前6.38%。从收益能力看，截至2025年5月15日，上海金ETF 自成立以来，最高单月回报为10.00%，最长连涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为8.00%，涨跌月数比为30/15，上涨月份平均收益率为3.04%，年盈利百分比 为100.00%，月盈利概率为66.92%，历史持有3年盈利概率为100.00%。 截至2025年5月9日，上海金ETF近1年夏普比率为2.86，排名可比基金前2/7，同等风险下收益更高。 费率方面，上海金ETF管理费率为0.25%，托管费率为0.05%，费率在可比基金中处于较低水平。 跟踪精度方面，截至2025年5月15日，上 ...

5月15日，全球最大对冲基金桥水公司公布了最新持仓动向，一季度重仓了黄金ETF。与桥水基金所见略同， 国内资金也在一季度大量抄底黄金ETF市场。 但是自4月22日高点回落以来，金价剧烈震荡，让投资黄金的人 有了更多观望情绪。 全球最大的黄金ETF——美国SPDR黄金ETF持仓规模从4月21日的高点959.17吨，下降到了5月13日的936.51 吨，22天里累计下降22.66吨。但随着美元长期贬值趋势加重，黄金长期配置的市场需求仍然强烈。 金价连续下跌，已到一个月以来低点，从高点回落最大幅度近10%。 桥水基金一季度重仓黄金ETF 全球最大对冲基金桥水公司最新持仓动向来了。5月15日，桥水基金向SEC递交截至今年3月31日的一季度持仓 报告（13F）表。 这份报告显示，今年一季度，这家华尔街投资巨鳄进行了大幅调整：减持科技股，重仓黄金。桥水建仓SPDR 黄金ETF（GLD），这也是一季度桥水最大的新建仓持股，也是其第六大持仓标的，规模为3.19亿美元。 短期或跌破3000美元/盎司 桥水基金的提前布局，为其带来了丰厚的收益。美国SPDR黄金ETF（GLD）在今年一季度大幅上涨19%，到4 月22日高点时，年内 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 黄金价格松动。 在全球贸易关系有所缓和后，此前一路高歌猛进的黄金价格开始掉头向下，并产生多方面的影响。在逼 近3100美元/盎司后，黄金价格出现大幅波动。 其中一种影响是，多数金矿上市公司股价开始见顶回落，并连续走低。另外，此前"大火"的黄金ETF投 资热有明显降温。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 自今年4月最高价的 最大跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 601069.SH | 西部黄金 | -24.94 | | 600988.SH | 赤峰黄金 | -23.06 | | 000975.SZ | 山金国际 | -20.04 | | 600547.SH | 山东黄金 | -18.25 | | 002155.SZ | 湖南黄金 | -17.34 | 统计数据显示，自今年4月的高位算起，多家金矿类公司的股价普遍跌势较大，其中多只股票期间最大 跌幅已经超过两成，明显跑输同期A股大盘表现。 在全球贸易关系有所缓和，特别是中美贸易关系缓和后，近期黄金价格一改此前高歌猛进的态势，开始 连续下跌。 黄金ETF投资热也降温 伦 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has experienced a significant decline, breaking through key levels of $3300 and $3200 per ounce, with a recent drop to $3120 per ounce, reflecting a weekly decline of over 4% [1][5] - Major financial institutions, such as Citigroup, have drastically lowered their gold price forecasts, reducing the three-month target from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, a decrease of 10% [5] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to improved US-China tariff negotiations, which have reduced market risk aversion and led to a phase of consolidation in the gold market [5] Group 2 - Despite the recent downturn, many analysts believe that gold prices may maintain high volatility in the medium to long term due to geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, with central banks continuing to purchase gold [6] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves, reaching 73.77 million ounces by the end of April 2025, indicating sustained demand for gold [6] - UBS maintains a price forecast of $3500 per ounce for the next two years, with a potential peak of $3600, supported by the expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [8] Group 3 - The World Gold Council emphasizes the strategic importance of gold as a safe-haven asset amid increasing correlations and volatility in stocks and bonds, suggesting a long-term investment approach rather than speculative trading [9] - It is recommended that investors allocate 10% to 15% of their portfolios to gold, adjusting based on market conditions and individual risk tolerance [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in gold prices has sparked discussions about future trends, with prices dropping below $3200 per ounce, marking an over 8% decrease from April highs [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price - The rapid increase in gold prices in early April was driven by escalating U.S. tariffs, leading to a "triple hit" on assets, which highlighted a contraction in dollar credit [2] - Market speculation intensified during this period, accumulating price risks, while subsequent economic data from the U.S. indicated a slowdown, delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions on May 12 boosted market risk appetite, prompting a shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further exacerbating gold's price adjustment [2][6] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of inflation rising alongside economic downturns, creating a stagflation scenario [3] - The ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy and the continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle are seen as core factors supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [3][5] - The trend of de-globalization and the ongoing expansion of U.S. debt are also contributing to a long-term bull market for gold, as dollar credit continues to contract [3] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - In April, global gold trading volumes surged, with an average daily trading volume of $441 billion, reflecting a 48% month-over-month increase [4] - Central bank demand remains a critical support factor for gold prices, driven by the diversification of global reserves and the decline in dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [5] - Investment demand for gold is bolstered by insufficient internal growth dynamics in the global economy and the resulting safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic instability [5] Group 4: Short-term Investment Strategy - Current sentiment around gold is relatively weak, with potential further declines if prices drop below $3100 per ounce, possibly testing critical support levels around $2950 to $3000 [7] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains bullish, suggesting that recent price adjustments present buying opportunities for investors [7] Group 5: Future Price Projections - Institutions like UBS predict that gold prices could reach $3500 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to $3800 per ounce under favorable conditions [8] - The long-term performance of gold is primarily driven by the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts supporting a bullish outlook for gold [10]

核心驱动因素交织出复杂的市场生态：美联储在 2025 年 3 月启动降息周期但步伐缓慢且反复无常，最新议息会议维持利率不变，鲍威尔强调 "不急于降 息"，市场对年内降息预期缩减，美元指数随之反弹至 100.8762，压制了黄金的上涨空间，不过实际利率仍处于负值区间，若核心 PCE 通胀在 5 月 30 日 公布时回落至 2.5% 以下，可能重启黄金的上涨动能；俄乌冲突持续升级、北约加大对乌克兰的军援，台海局势因中美军事活动频繁而紧张，这些地缘风 险成为黄金避险需求的 "燃料"，历史数据显示地缘冲突期间黄金的波动率通常较平时高出 40%，当前金价隐含波动率（GVZ）已升至 28，接近 2020 年 疫情恐慌水平；供给端，2025 年 Q1 全球黄金供应量同比增加 11.8 吨，但增长主要来自生产商净套保，矿山产量仅增 2.1 吨，增速维持低位，需求端则呈 现显著分化，黄金 ETF 需求激增、金条金币投资需求旺盛，但珠宝消费因印度、中国等主要市场疲软而大幅下滑，值得注意的是全球央行购金力度不 减，2025 年 Q1 净购金 320 吨，中国连续 6 个月增持，黄金在外汇储备中的占比升至 21.3%；市场情绪层面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices has led to significant investor reactions, including both panic selling and opportunistic buying, indicating a volatile market environment [1][2][17]. Market Reaction - On May 15, spot gold prices fell below $3130 per ounce, dropping over 1.5%, and previously breached the $3200 mark, indicating a significant downward trend [1]. - There was a notable increase in gold repurchase activity, with long queues forming at gold buyback counters, as many investors anticipated further price declines [2][10]. Investor Behavior - Some investors expressed regret over their investments in gold-related financial products, stating they had not capitalized on previous high prices and were now facing losses [4][15]. - Conversely, many investors took the opportunity to buy gold bars at lower prices, with increased foot traffic observed at investment gold counters [4][9][8]. Price Trends - The price of investment gold bars at major retailers like Cai Bai has seen a significant drop, with prices reported at 736.2 yuan per gram [4]. - Major brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have also seen their gold jewelry prices fall below 1000 yuan per gram, reflecting the broader market trend [13]. Market Influences - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including profit-taking by investors and a decrease in geopolitical tensions, which has reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [17][18]. - Experts suggest that the current volatility in gold prices may continue, influenced by factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and global economic conditions [21][20]. Investment Considerations - Analysts caution investors against blindly following market trends, emphasizing the importance of understanding personal risk tolerance and investment strategies [23][20]. - Despite the recent price drops, gold remains a significant asset class for long-term investment, particularly for conservative investors [23][19].

全球最大黄金ETF持仓数据更新异常，是否减持成疑 ? 金十数据5月15日讯，根据世界黄金协会（WGC）北京时间06:30左右的数据，全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 5月14日的持 仓量为936.51吨，较上一个交易日维持不变。北京时间15:00左右，WGC更新持仓数据为931.92吨，较上一个交易日减少4.59 吨。北京时间18:00左右，WGC再次更新持仓数据为936.51吨 -个交易日维持不变。目前，WGC暂未就此做出解释。 较上一 Premium discount Historical data Regulatory filings Interactive charting Tax reporting Gold bar list Industry research Media information Links DOWNLOADS was intended to lower many of the barriers, such as access, custody, and transaction costs, that had prevented some investors f ...

投资国内黄金收益更高？ 南方财经全媒体记者 吴霜 上海报道 近两年，"万事不如黄金香"被不少个人投资者奉为圭臬，但最近一个月，不少人对黄金投资的"信念 感"开始崩塌。 在今年年初以前购买了黄金或者黄金相关的投资品的人，在其他投资品收益波动，甚至下降的情况下， 至少已经获得了超过20%的收益率。 Wind数据显示，截至5月15日，今年以来，伦敦金现的涨幅在21%左右；COMEX黄金期货的价格涨幅 在20%左右。在国内，上海金年初以来的价格涨幅在23%左右；黄金ETF的涨幅在23%左右；甚至关联 股票的价格也在今年大幅上涨，比如紫山矿业年初至今的涨幅为18.39%，山东黄金涨幅为29.39%，赤 峰黄金涨幅为68.67%等。 而如果是在4月中旬追高入场，那么现在心情可能会像坐过山车一样跌宕起伏。因为无论是国内金价还 是国际金价都在4月的中下旬一改单向上行的涨势，开始出现剧烈的波动，甚至频频出现一天下降2个点 的跌幅。 在这背后，有中外黄金的价差出现收窄、汇率波动的原因，也有黄金投资框架的悄然变化。 同样是购买黄金ETF，购买国内的似乎可以赚的更多。 记者梳理中外黄金ETF的收益情况发现，拉长时间来看，国内黄金ET ...