注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 西部证券指出，保险行业方面，国家金管局下发《关于分红险分红水平监管意见的函》，要求审慎确定 分红水平，不得偏离账户实际表现随意抬高分红，此举有助于防范利差损风险、遏制恶性竞争，利好成 本率低、资产配置水平高的头部险企。券商行业方面，证监会修订《证券公司分类评价规定》，取消营 业总收入加分，扩大轻资产业务收入排名加分范围，增设自营权益类资产规模指标，引导行业聚焦专业 化、特色化及高质量发展。银行行业方面，央行在上海"先行先试"结构性货币政策工具，优化信贷结 构，加大对小微、科创、绿色低碳领域支持，同时跨境支付通上线有望助力银行分享人民币国际化红 利；受益于息差降幅收敛、资产质量改善，银行盈利或稳中向好，叠加消费弱复苏下降息预期，红利策 略仍具投资价值。 300增强ETF跟踪的是沪深300指数，该指数由中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ETF market is undergoing a significant transformation from 2024 to April 2025, with the total scale of non-monetary ETFs increasing from 1.85 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 3.89 trillion yuan, marking a 110% growth [1]. ETF Market Scale Changes - The ETF market is experiencing a shift in dominance from individual investors to institutional investors, with institutional holdings in stock ETFs reaching 62.14% and in bond ETFs reaching 84.90% [4]. - State-owned institutions and insurance companies are the main contributors to this growth, with state-owned holdings increasing by 922.4 billion yuan to 1.05 trillion yuan in the second half of 2024, and insurance funds increasing by 113.2 billion yuan to 260.7 billion yuan [4]. Institutional Preferences - Institutions are actively investing in core broad-based ETFs, with a total increase of 866.8 billion yuan in 300 ETFs and 500 ETFs, accounting for 59.3% of total inflows into stock ETFs [5]. - There is a strong preference for high-dividend assets among institutions, driven by the challenges of low interest rates, with the total market size of dividend-themed index funds reaching 173.55 billion yuan, an increase of 20.09 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [6]. Insurance Capital Activity - Insurance capital has been particularly active in acquiring dividend assets, with 16 instances of stake increases in listed companies, focusing on sectors like banking, utilities, energy, and logistics [9]. - Ping An Life has been notably active, making six acquisitions in Hong Kong-listed bank stocks, becoming a key player in this market [9]. Dividend ETF Characteristics - The main dividend index sectors are characterized by essential or monopolistic attributes, such as energy, resources, telecommunications, and utilities, benefiting from national policy incentives [10]. - Despite the growth in dividend ETFs, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of returns, as over 50% of the 56.32% return from the dividend low-volatility index in 2023-2024 came from the banking and coal sectors [11]. Market Outlook - The resilience of dividend assets has been highlighted, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing a favorable trend in dividend style since March [11]. - Future expectations suggest that while growth styles may dominate, dividend styles will exhibit a higher probability of success due to their high dividend yields and low volatility [11].

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing market volatility due to overseas geopolitical disturbances, leading to heightened interest in defensive dividend assets, particularly the dividend ETF focused on state-owned enterprises in Hong Kong [1][2] - The Hong Kong dividend ETF (520900) has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of over 5% as of June 24, indicating its robust ability to withstand market fluctuations [1] - The low interest rate environment enhances the long-term attractiveness of high-dividend state-owned enterprises, making index-based tools like the Hong Kong dividend ETF a convenient option for investors seeking dividend income while diversifying risk [1] Group 2 - The China Securities New Hong Kong Stock Connect State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index focuses on state-owned enterprises with stable dividend levels and high dividend yields within the Hong Kong Stock Connect range, with significant representation from the oil and petrochemical (29.0%), telecommunications (23.5%), and coal (14.2%) sectors [2] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include major state-owned enterprises, benefiting from the long-term advantages of the energy and telecommunications sectors [2] - GF Fund Management has developed a diverse range of dividend asset allocation tools, with the Hong Kong dividend ETF (520900) becoming a key instrument for investors navigating complex market conditions [2]

6月25日，红利低波ETF（512890）涨超0.84%，最新价1.201元。换手率1.86%，成交额3.51亿。从资金 流向来看，近 5 个交易日红利低波 ETF（512890）资金净流入 8.45 亿元，近 20 个交易日净流入 15.25 亿元。此外，华泰柏瑞（518880）今年以来涨幅为 6.25%，其最新基金规模为 188.04 亿元，持续受到 资金青睐，稳居同类规模最大红利低波 ETF 的宝座（数据来源：Wind，截至 2025 年 6 月 24 日）。 | | R 512890 红利低波ETF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 委比 | 27.03% 李元 | | 30011 | | 卖五 | 1.205 | 9061 | | | 类园 | 1.204 | 6160 | | | 第二 | 1.203 | 24941 | | | | 1.202 | 336 | | | | 1.201 | 11 | | | 제재 | 1.200 | 2289 | | | | 1.199 | 23410 | | | | 1.198 | 31648 | | | 买四 | 1.197 | ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3455 points, marking a new high for the year, while the ChiNext Index surged over 3% [1] - Over 3800 stocks closed in the green, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [5] Financial Sector - The financial sector saw a collective surge, particularly in brokerage stocks such as Guosheng Financial Holdings, Tianfeng Securities, and Xiangcai Securities, which hit the daily limit [3] - The rise is attributed to increasing expectations for policy easing and the relatively low valuations of brokerage firms, with potential catalysts from ongoing capital market reforms like the deepening of the registration system and the expansion of the Beijing Stock Exchange [3] - Caution is advised for short-term trading, while long-term investors should focus on leading firms with strong investment banking capabilities and wealth management advantages [3] Military Industry - The military sector remained active, with stocks like Guorui Technology and Beifang Changlong hitting the daily limit [3] - The sector benefits from strong performance and policy support, with many military enterprises reporting full order books, particularly in aerospace and missile equipment [3] - Long-term investments should focus on leading companies with core technologies and stable orders, avoiding short-term speculative trades [3] Software Development - The software development sector was also lively, with stocks like Guiding Compass reaching the daily limit [4] - This sector is linked to the financial industry, driven by the demand for financial IT and data security as part of digital transformation [4] - Companies that effectively combine technology with practical applications are seen as having significant future potential, but investors should prioritize firms with tangible projects and cash flow [4] Other Sectors - The oil and gas, pharmaceutical, and shipping sectors faced declines, with stocks like Zhun Oil Shares hitting the daily limit down [4] - The oil and gas sector is affected by recent volatility in international oil prices, while the pharmaceutical sector is still adjusting to the impacts of centralized procurement [4] - The shipping sector is experiencing a withdrawal of funds due to expectations around freight rates and seasonal demand [4] Investment Strategy - The market's upward movement suggests a search for undervalued and high-growth sectors, particularly in financials and military industries [5] - Long-term investors are encouraged to remain calm and avoid chasing short-term speculative stocks, focusing instead on sectors with clear policy benefits and strong mid-year performance forecasts, such as semiconductor equipment, energy storage, and high-end liquor [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the acceleration of long-term capital entering the market due to regulatory measures and the favorable low-interest-rate environment, which is expected to enhance the maturity of the "long money long investment" market ecology in A-shares [1][2] - Since the beginning of the year (January 1 to June 24), a total of 17.8 billion yuan has flowed into dividend-themed ETFs, indicating strong investor interest in high-dividend assets [1] - The Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) has attracted 3.978 billion yuan in inflows and has become a key target for capital allocation, with significant daily net inflows recorded [1][2] Group 2 - The Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) has reached a new scale high of 18.804 billion yuan as of June 24, reflecting its popularity among investors [2] - The ETF has demonstrated strong defensive attributes, making it appealing to risk-averse investors, and has achieved positive returns every year since its inception in 2018 [2] - The associated connection funds for the Hongli Low Volatility ETF have gained significant traction, with 829,800 holders as of the end of 2024, making it one of the most favored dividend index funds among retail investors [2] Group 3 - The Huatai-PineBridge Zhongzheng Hongli Low Volatility ETF connection fund has distributed dividends for 21 consecutive months, showcasing its reliability in providing returns to investors [3] - Huatai-PineBridge has developed a diverse range of "dividend family" products, including the first dividend-themed ETF and a QDII model ETF, with total management scale exceeding 41.4 billion yuan as of June 24 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing interest in Hong Kong dividend assets as a defensive investment amid frequent overseas geopolitical disturbances, with significant capital inflow into the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) has achieved a record high in both shares and scale, with a 34% increase in scale within the month, reaching 1.682 billion shares and 2.682 billion yuan as of June 23, 2025 [1] - Insurance companies have shown a strong enthusiasm for increasing their holdings in Hong Kong bank stocks, with 19 instances of insurance stake increases reported by June 20, 2025, involving 16 companies, of which 13 were Hong Kong stocks and 9 were bank stocks [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) offers a high dividend yield of 7.66% over the past 12 months, significantly higher than mainstream A-share dividend indices such as the CSI Dividend (5.50%) and Shenzhen Dividend (4.47%) [1] - The ETF is the first in the A-share market that allows investment in the Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend (CNY) index through the QDII model, providing a more favorable tax structure compared to traditional Hong Kong Stock Connect channels [1] - The fund can conduct monthly dividend assessments, potentially allowing for up to 12 distributions per year, enhancing the flexibility of capital management for investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is resuming production increases, putting pressure on oil supply, while US oil production growth remains limited, suggesting global oil prices may stabilize within a mid-range [1] Investment Opportunities - Five major investment themes are recommended: 1. Low-volatility dividend-leading oil and gas state-owned enterprises 2. Large refining companies and other chemical sectors showing signs of recovery 3. Companies with overseas production bases 4. Sectors benefiting from supply-demand improvements 5. Emerging demand in high-growth potential new materials industry [1] Capital Expenditure Insights - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and ongoing projects in the large chemical sector are projected to decline from 984.8 billion to 897.1 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in supply pressure and potential for industry recovery [1] Chemical Industry Profitability - The profitability of oil-based olefins is currently at a low point due to high oil prices, with ethane-based ethylene having a cost advantage of approximately 2000-2500 yuan/ton over oil-based and coal-based ethylene [3] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Certain chemical sub-sectors are showing signs of improvement, such as: - Pesticides: Prices may enter a recovery phase as supply stabilizes and seasonal demand returns - Refrigerants: A pricing cycle may begin following quota implementation - Civil explosives: Expected to benefit from national strategies like the Western Development [4] Globalization and Resource Opportunities - In the context of geopolitical instability, Chinese chemical companies with overseas bases may gain strategic advantages, while limited supply of quality mineral resources and rising extraction costs could push prices higher [5]

Steel Industry Overview - The steel production capacity in Southeast Asia is primarily concentrated in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore [3] - The steel industry in Southeast Asia is relatively underdeveloped, particularly in Indonesia and the Philippines, but there is significant potential for growth as the economies of these countries continue to develop [4] Steel Demand - The majority of steel demand in Southeast Asia is driven by the construction sector, including residential and infrastructure projects, with industrial demand also notable in Thailand and Malaysia, particularly for automotive and electronics manufacturing [6] Resource Advantages - Indonesia possesses abundant energy and mineral resources, including nickel, coal, oil, and bauxite, and has been open to foreign investment, attracting many companies to invest in its energy and mining sectors [7] Labor Market - Indonesia has a large population of 270 million, making it the fourth most populous country in the world, with a youthful demographic that supports long-term market growth potential [8] Infrastructure Development - Indonesia's current economic and industrial development level is comparable to China's 15 years ago, with significant growth potential in infrastructure and real estate, which will drive the steel industry forward [9] Manufacturing Maturity in Thailand - Thailand has a mature manufacturing sector, particularly in automotive and electronics, with automotive exports accounting for over half of ASEAN's total, and steel usage in the automotive sector representing 17% of total steel consumption [11] Real Estate Market in Thailand - Thailand is the second-largest economy in ASEAN, with a rapidly growing real estate and infrastructure sector, although recent years have seen a slowdown in the real estate market, leading to a decrease in steel demand [12] Labor Situation in Thailand - Thailand has a stable society with a transparent policy environment, but faces challenges with a declining demographic dividend, leading to increased reliance on foreign labor for manufacturing [14] Geographic Advantage of Vietnam - Vietnam's proximity to China facilitates lower transportation costs for businesses entering the Southeast Asian market, although it has limited foreign investment in its mineral resources [15] Labor Market in Vietnam - Vietnam has a population of 102 million, ranking third in Southeast Asia, but is experiencing labor shortages due to increased manufacturing investments [16] Steel Industry Development in Vietnam - Vietnam has a well-developed infrastructure and a manufacturing trajectory similar to China's past, with a complete industrial chain in electronics, home appliances, and automotive sectors, making it the largest steel demand country in Southeast Asia [18]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15%, and the CSI 300 up by 1.20%. The tech-focused STAR 50 and ChiNext Index rose by 2.30% and 1.79% respectively. The total trading volume reached approximately 1.45 trillion yuan, an increase of about 300 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The Hong Kong market also saw notable gains, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.0% and 2.1% respectively [1] Catalysts for Market Surge - The market rally was driven by several favorable factors, including the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, which alleviated concerns over oil supply shortages and inflation. This led to a drop in oil prices by over 10% from their recent highs [2] - The Chinese government's announcement of a grand military parade for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War boosted investor confidence, showcasing advancements in military technology [2] - Various sectors, particularly technology and finance, saw a resurgence as previous geopolitical tensions subsided, with companies like Tesla launching autonomous taxi services and advancements in solid-state battery production [2] Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Improved risk appetite in the A-share market is noted, with optimism stemming from breakthroughs in AI, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have positively influenced both domestic and foreign investor perceptions [3] - The ongoing decline of the US dollar is expected to benefit Chinese assets, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks likely to gain from increased liquidity [3] - Despite the positive outlook, uncertainties remain regarding tariff negotiations and signs of weakening in some economic indicators, which could impact future market performance [3] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on stable dividend-paying assets in a low-interest-rate environment, particularly in sectors that benefit from increased liquidity [3] - Attention should also be directed towards technology sectors and domestic demand-driven industries that are likely to experience significant policy and industry catalysts [3]