Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching historical highs in September and October, followed by a brief correction but maintaining an upward trajectory thereafter [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In November, global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.2 billion, marking six consecutive months of inflows [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting its price [1] - Increased demand for safe-haven assets and ongoing central bank purchases of gold are reinforcing a high volatility and upward price trend in the gold market [1] Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release November non-farm payroll data, which was delayed due to a government shutdown [1] - Previous employment data indicated a deterioration in the labor market, but initial unemployment claims suggest a stable hiring environment [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to have a limited impact on gold prices, as the market has already priced in the recent interest rate cut [1][2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Long-term factors driving gold prices include global central bank de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [2] - The market anticipates a further weakening of the U.S. dollar index, which could support gold prices [2] - Despite gold prices hovering around $4,000 per ounce, there is no significant panic selling, indicating low bearish sentiment [2] - The current market trend favors buying on dips, with expectations of continued central bank gold purchases and a favorable long-term outlook for gold prices [3]

亚洲早盘 黄金小幅走高。Tickmill执行董事Joseph Dahrieh在一封电子邮件中表示，金价继续受益于市场 对美联储将进一步放松货币政策的坚定预期、各国央行的持续买入，以及不断扩大的地缘政治风险，这 些风险正维持着避险资金流。本周市场焦点可能将是美国的主要政府数据，例如将于周二公布的11月就 业报告和将于周四公布的11月CPI数据。现货黄金上涨0.1%，报每盎司4,305.27美元。 ...

转自：期货日报 美联储降息如期而至，释放出扩表态度，加之地缘冲突再出新消息，驱动原油价格上行。 美联储如期降息25个基点 北京时间12月11日，美联储结束了为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基 点，至3.5%~3.75%。这是美联储自今年9月以来的第3次降息，前两次分别为9月和10月，各降息25个基 点。本次降息符合市场预期，在消息落地后，美股三大指数均收涨，隔夜国际油价也大幅反弹。 值得注意的是，美联储也宣布，将于12月开始扩大其资产负债表规模，包括启动每月购买400亿美元短 期国债的储备管理计划（RMP)，并称RMP主要出于缓解市场流动性压力的考量，这表明美联储的思路 已经从缩表转向保证市场不会出现流动性危机。鲍威尔会后表示，美联储货币政策的目标是在通货膨胀 和充分就业之间达到平衡，短期通胀上行的原因是特朗普加征关税，而关税的影响是一次性的，随着关 税影响的消退，美国通胀将继续回到2%的水平，通过降息可以稳定就业市场。根据美国经济分析局公 布的数据，9月美国个人消费支出物价指数同比上涨2.8%，预期为2.8%，前值为2.7%。 本次会议通过降息+扩表的方式向市场注入宽松的信号，整 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of non - ferrous metals is ebbing, and the supply of zinc continues to tighten. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains. Although the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the 11th was unexpectedly dovish and restarted balance - sheet expansion, driving precious metals and non - ferrous metals to rise rapidly, the dot - plot only prices in one 25bps rate cut next year, and the stimulus of the Fed's monetary policy before March 18 next year is relatively limited [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 2.68% at 23,621 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 219,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S rose 104 to $3,191.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 220,100 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 23,700 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 65 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 15 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference was 80 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 235,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - **Market Trends**: The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased, and the TC of zinc concentrate continued to decline. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, while the LME zinc ingot inventory slowly increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly. At the current Shanghai - London ratio, there is still an element gap in China. Coupled with the production cuts of zinc smelting enterprises, the domestic spot side has tightened marginally [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - The report presents multiple macro - economic data charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of US national debt to GDP and the total national debt, the Fed's balance - sheet asset and liability structure, US and Chinese manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing new orders and unfilled orders, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US aluminum and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In November 2025, the zinc ore output was 311,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.2% and a month - on - month change of - 5.9%. From January to November, the total zinc ore output was 3.382 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.4%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In November 2025, the zinc ingot output was 595,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.6%. From January to November, the total zinc ingot output was 6.2815 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [33][35]. - **Processing Fees**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton [29]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 139,900 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc is relatively high. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc is rising, and the net short position of commercial enterprises is rising. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bullish [67].

Market Performance - US stock markets closed lower on December 12, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.51% at 48,458.05 points, the S&P 500 down 1.07% at 6,827.41 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.69% at 23,195.17 points. For the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.05%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.63% and 1.62%, respectively [1] - European stock indices also saw slight declines, with the German DAX down 0.41% at 24,196.16 points, the French CAC40 down 0.21% at 8,068.62 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.56% at 9,649.03 points. The DAX rose 0.7% for the week, while the CAC40 and FTSE 100 fell 0.57% and 0.19%, respectively [1] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 5.1%, with significant declines in major companies: Broadcom down over 11%, Micron Technology down over 6%, and Intel down over 4%. Concerns about profit margins and delayed revenue from AI contracts contributed to this downturn [2] - Broadcom reported Q4 sales of $18 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations. However, CEO Hock Tan indicated that AI revenue margins are lower than non-AI margins, raising concerns about future profitability [2] Technology Stocks - Major US tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia down over 3%, Amazon down nearly 2%, and Google, Microsoft, and Facebook down over 1%. Tesla, however, saw an increase of nearly 3% [3] Oracle and AI Infrastructure - Oracle has postponed the completion of data centers for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 due to labor and material shortages. Despite this delay, Oracle's CEO stated that the company is on track to meet ambitious capacity delivery goals [4] - Oracle's agreement with OpenAI is valued at up to $300 billion, aimed at providing infrastructure for model training and inference [4] Oil Market - International oil prices fell by 4% this week, with WTI crude oil closing at $57.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $61.21 per barrel. The decline is attributed to increasing global oil inventories and reduced geopolitical risk due to potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [5][7] - Analysts noted that the main issue in the oil market is the imbalance between rapidly growing supply and weak demand, with OPEC+ halting further production increases to alleviate concerns about oversupply [7]

Group 1 - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid voted against interest rate cuts for the second consecutive time, citing persistently high inflation and a resilient economy, despite a cooling labor market [1] - Schmid stated that the current monetary policy stance, while restrictive, is only mildly so, indicating that the Fed should not prematurely ease its position [1] - There is a notable divergence in policy perspectives within the Federal Reserve, as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cast a surprising dissenting vote, emphasizing the need for caution due to incomplete economic data and ongoing inflation concerns [1] Group 2 - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson described the labor market as "bent but not broken," highlighting increased downside risks and ongoing weakness in broader hiring activities [2] - Paulson anticipates that inflation will gradually decrease next year and believes that the current policy interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% remains restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target [2]

Market Overview - As of the latest update, U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures up by 0.14%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures down by 0.61% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.25%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.35% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.24% to $57.46 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.29% to $61.10 per barrel [4] Economic and Regulatory Developments - President Trump signed an executive order aimed at limiting state regulations on artificial intelligence (AI), promoting a federal framework to maintain U.S. leadership in the AI sector [5] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts have become pronounced, with Chairman Powell downplaying dissent but indicating significant disagreement among officials [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points was influenced by concerns over employment data, which may lead to further easing if labor market weakness persists [7] Company-Specific News - Broadcom (AVGO.US) reported Q4 sales of $18 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, but the stock fell in after-hours trading due to lower-than-expected AI chip backlog orders [10] - Costco (COST.US) exceeded Q1 revenue expectations with $67.31 billion, a 6.4% increase year-over-year, but market reaction was muted due to concerns over slowing membership renewal rates [11] - Coinbase (COIN.US) plans to launch tokenized stocks and prediction markets, with an announcement expected on December 17 [12] - Netflix (NFLX.US) saw its market value drop by $40 billion amid acquisition concerns, but retail investors have shown strong buying interest [12] - Apple (AAPL.US) faced a setback in its legal battle with Epic Games, with a court ruling against its challenge but allowing for potential defense regarding developer fees [13] - CoreWeave (CRWV.US) partnered with Runway to enhance its video AI engine using NVIDIA's GB300 chip [14] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key economic data releases include the total number of active U.S. drilling rigs and speeches from Federal Reserve officials regarding economic outlook [15]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, maintaining levels near the highest point since October 21, driven by reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets due to overall optimism in global stock markets [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's adjustment of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to support gold prices, with the dollar index dropping to a two-month low, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties in certain regions are limiting the downside for gold, bolstering bullish sentiment [1] - The recent Federal Reserve monetary policy decision is a core driver of gold's price movements, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected in December and a forecast indicating only one more rate cut by 2026 [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold has confirmed a breakout from a two-week trading range, with resistance levels identified between $4245 and $4250, indicating a clear bullish signal [2] - The daily oscillators are in a positive range and not yet overbought, suggesting further upward potential for gold prices [2] - Support levels have shifted, with the previous resistance area now acting as potential support between $4220 and $4218, and further support at $4200 and the $4170-$4165 range [4] Group 3: Price Levels - The immediate resistance level for gold is at $4300, with potential to advance towards the $4328-$4330 range upon breaking this level [4] - Sustained upward momentum could challenge the historical high of $4380 set in October, with a confirmation of an upward trend if gold remains above the $4400 mark [4]

11:01 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构:美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1050.83 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持仓变化 更新时间:2025-12-11 1.060 1.050 1.040 1,030 1.020 1.010 2025-10-22 2025-11-13 2025-12-05 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 今天是12月12日,全球最大黄金ETF -- SPD … 展开 ( C 基本面消息，周四公布的数据显示，美国上周美国初请失业金人数大幅上升至23.6万人，远高于预期，疲弱的劳动力数据推动了黄金的避险需求。金价在 触及日内低点4204美元后强劲反弹，突破近期区间。 具体来看，美国劳工部数据显示，截至12月6日当周的初请失业金人数升至23.6万人，较前一周上修后的19.2万人大幅上升，单周增幅创下2020年以来最 大。不过截至11月29日当周的续请失业金人数从193.7万人降至183.8万人，为八个月低位，显示长期失业状况出现一定稳定迹象。 分析指出，截至12月6日当周的初请失业金人数意外跳升，成为改变市场情绪的催化剂，进一步推动投资者押注美联储将被迫采取更宽松的政策立场，从 而推动 ...

受美联储最新货币政策影响，欧元兑美元汇率近期明显走强，从本周低点算起，涨幅已超过1.2%。 截至目前，欧元/美元已连续第三周保持上涨，短期走势受到市场普遍关注。 从技术层面看，当前汇率的焦点集中在上涨趋势中的阻力区域。市场观察显示，汇率收盘价与某一关键水平的关系，可作为判断短期走向的参考；该水平 在本周内的收盘表现，也是观察短期趋势的重要依据。 从4小时图来看，汇率当前正接近两个关键技术位置的重合区域： 一是10月高点对应的日收盘价水平，二是从年度高点回落过程中的61.8%斐波那契回撤位。该重合区域位于1.1731至1.1747之间。 其中1.1747被视为重要观察点，若日收盘价高于该水平，则后续可关注的阻力区间依次为1.1794至1.1813、以及1.1866。1.1794至1.1813区间包含了2025年 高点日收盘价及11月底以来的1.618%扩展位，1.1866则对应年度高点的日收盘水平。 结合日线图来看，欧元/美元此前曾短暂突破，触及短期上涨趋势阻力后经历了约四天的回调，幅度接近0.6%。而在美联储政策公布后，汇率自12月低点 反弹近1.5%，目前正试探11月底形成的价格通道上沿，该位置阻力的有效性 ...