Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is seen as a new uncertainty factor, raising discussions about the potential erosion of central bank independence, which is re-entering the global asset pricing perspective [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 13, amid multiple uncertainties, safe-haven buying in precious metals surged, with COMEX gold futures reaching a historical high of $4,640 per ounce; the dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop in about three weeks on January 12 [5]. - Market reactions remain relatively restrained, reflected in a slight steepening of the yield curve, a weaker dollar, and widening implied inflation expectations in inflation-protected bonds, indicating a marginal repricing of risk premiums rather than a substantial reassessment of the Fed's policy path [6]. Group 2: Long-term Implications - If the controversy surrounding the Fed's independence continues, it may elevate the risk premium required for U.S. assets in the medium to long term, providing new reasons for global investors to diversify away from dollar and U.S. Treasury allocations [6][7]. - The focus of market discussions is shifting from immediate interest rate changes to longer-term concerns about the stability of inflation expectations and interest rate anchors in the face of ongoing challenges to central bank independence [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The topic of "selling America" resurfaced, reminiscent of market volatility triggered by tariffs last year, where major U.S. stock indices saw significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping approximately 4.8% and the overall market losing about $3 trillion in value in a single day [9]. - Despite potential higher risk premium requirements for U.S. assets, a rapid withdrawal of funds is not anticipated; instead, gradual adjustments in allocation structures are expected [9][10].

哥伦比亚特区检察官Pirro：美联储独立性未受攻击。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice has raised significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for a "sell America" trade to resurface in the market [1][8]. Group 1: Investigation Background - The investigation appears to center around the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's office building, but it is fundamentally rooted in the long-standing monetary policy disagreements between President Trump and Powell [2]. - On January 9, 2026, the DOJ issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, threatening criminal charges against Powell related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the renovation project, which saw its budget increase from approximately $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion [2]. - Powell has publicly stated that the criminal investigation is a "pretext" to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates, asserting that the government’s threats are due to the Fed's commitment to public interest rather than presidential wishes [2]. Group 2: Support for Powell - Powell received collective support from former Federal Reserve officials, including Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan, who condemned the DOJ's actions as an unprecedented attempt to undermine central bank independence [3]. - Yellen expressed concern about the chilling effect this investigation could have on Powell's potential successors and was surprised by the market's muted reaction to the news [3]. - Jonathan Kantner, a former DOJ official, warned that if political motives erode the threshold for conviction, it could undermine global confidence in the rule of law in the U.S. [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Response - In response to political pressure, Federal Reserve officials have chosen to assert their independence by signaling a clear stance on monetary policy [5]. - Powell emphasized that the core issue is whether the Federal Reserve can set interest rate policies based on evidence and economic conditions or if it will be swayed by political pressures [6]. - John Williams stated that current monetary policy is neutral regarding employment and inflation targets, indicating no need for interest rate cuts in the short term [7]. Group 4: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could trigger a threefold crisis: decreased investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, rising long-term borrowing costs, and accelerated global de-dollarization [8]. - Gary Tan from Allspring Global Investments noted that any developments questioning the Fed's independence would increase uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy, potentially leading to a trend of reducing dollar holdings and increasing interest in traditional safe-haven assets like gold [8]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.2% on January 12, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and gold prices reached a historic high, indicating market reactions to the investigation [8].

据美国《纽约时报》11日报道称，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔 展开刑事调查，主要涉及美联储办公大楼翻修项目，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目规模向国会作虚假陈述。 对此，美联储11日罕见发布视频声明，鲍威尔表示相关指控都是"借口"，自己被调查的原因其实是美联 储"没有遵从总统意愿"设定利率。美联社说，这一事态发展重新引发外界对美联储独立性受到损害的担 忧，可能削弱全球投资者对美债的信心。 据此前报道，当地时间1月11日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿 总部翻修项目，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目向美国国会作伪证一事，对他展开刑事调查。 鲍威尔发布视频声明证实，特朗普政府因他2025年6月对美国国会参议院所作证词，威胁对他提起刑事 指控，并已于当地时间1月9日向美联储发出传票。 他认为这是"借口"，目的是就美联储降息问题进一步向他施压。 对现任美联储主席进行刑事调查，这在美国历史上是前所未有的…… 全球多国的央行行长13日发表联合声明，力挺美联储主席鲍威尔。 据美国《华尔街日报）13日报道， 多位央行行长"史无前例地"发表联合声明，强调维护美联储的独立性"至关重要"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between former President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the broader political landscape in the U.S. [2][3][4] Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump is attempting to use the Department of Justice as a tool for personal political gain, moving beyond mere verbal pressure to more aggressive tactics [3][5] - The relationship between Trump and Powell is marked by irony, as Powell was appointed by Trump himself, illustrating the lack of permanent allies in Trump's political sphere [3][4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining long-term monetary stability, and Trump's actions threaten to undermine this foundational principle [3][4] Group 2: Powell's Response - Powell has publicly asserted his commitment to impartiality and his determination to resist threats, positioning himself as a guardian of institutional integrity [4] - Republican Senator Thom Tillis has indicated he will block any new nominations for the Federal Reserve chair until Powell's legal issues are resolved, complicating Trump's strategy [4] - The confrontation between Trump and Powell represents a broader test of the balance of power within U.S. politics, with implications for future governance [4][5] Group 3: Implications for Governance - Trump's tactics may create a chilling effect on independent decision-makers within federal institutions, raising concerns about the future of independent governance [5] - The article suggests that Trump's approach could erode the foundational principles of checks and balances in the U.S. political system [5] - The ongoing conflict is seen as a critical moment for the resilience of American constitutional governance against authoritarian tendencies [5]

智通财经1月14日讯（编辑 黄君芝）近几日，"美国司法部对现任美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell） 展开调查"一事引发轩然大波、遭到美国政界强烈反对，而此时正值美国总统特朗普即将提名下一任美 联储主席之际，有分析指出这一进程或被推迟。 但当地时间1月13日（周二），特朗普总统表示，他将在"未来几周内"宣布提名人选接替鲍威尔。当 天，在密歇根州参观一家工厂期间被问及该计划时，特朗普表示，尽管一些重要的共和党议员表达了担 忧，但他仍计划推进该计划。 此外，特朗普还批评了即将退休的北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员Thom Tillis，后者是参议院银行委员会的 成员，特朗普对美联储人选的确认听证会将在该委员会举行，首次投票也将在该委员会进行。 前一日，Tillis发表声明称，他将就鲍威尔被调查一事阻止特朗普提名的所有美联储主席人选。他写 道："在这一法律问题得到彻底解决之前，我将反对任何美联储提名人的确认——包括即将到来的美联 储主席空缺。" 阿拉斯加州参议员Lisa Murkowski随后也发表声明称，她周一上午与鲍威尔进行了交谈，并称政府的调 查"只不过是一种胁迫手段"，还补充说，Tillis"在问题解决之前 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market currently faces supply pressure, especially in terms of inventory. However, there are signs of stabilization and recovery on the demand side, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may boost iron ore prices. It is expected that iron ore prices may remain resilient before the Spring Festival [10][11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market Performance - On January 13, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opened lower and then rose rapidly, and oscillated downward in the afternoon, closing at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 0.24% [7]. - The trading data of other steel and iron ore futures contracts on January 13 are as follows: - RB2605: closed at 3158 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00%, trading volume of 837,879 lots, and a decrease in open interest of 38,760 lots [5]. - HC2605: closed at 3303 yuan/ton, down 0.09%, trading volume of 404,061 lots, and an increase in open interest of 12,752 lots [5]. - SS2603: closed at 13790 yuan/ton, down 0.54%, trading volume of 256,128 lots, and an increase in open interest of 1,464 lots [5]. - I2605: closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 0.24%, trading volume of 311,621 lots, and a decrease in open interest of 1,527 lots [5]. 3.1.2 Futures Market Positioning - The data of the top 20 long and short positions in the black - series futures on January 13 show that for the I2605 contract, the top 20 long positions were 407,433 lots with an increase of 2,991 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 436,454 lots with a decrease of 859 lots, with a long - short difference of 3,850 lots and a deviation of 0.91% [8]. 3.1.3 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On January 13, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by 0.6 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning down and the D value continuing to decline; the red bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is narrowing [9]. 3.1.4 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased last week, while the arrivals continued to increase. Considering the end - of - last - year overseas shipment rush, the short - term arrivals are expected to remain at a high level [10]. - Demand: The total output of the five major steel products increased slightly last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the repair of steel profits. Although the production profits of rebar electric furnaces and hot - rolled coils are still negative, they are close to the break - even point, which boosts the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises to some extent. The subsequent sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Inventory: Steel mills are currently restocking as needed, and the inventory - available days decreased by 1 day to 19 days compared with last week. The restocking before the New Year's Day holiday was not obvious, and the restocking demand in mid - to - late January before the Spring Festival may boost iron ore prices. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, reaching nearly 1.63 billion tons, the highest since April 2018, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly in the future [11]. 3.2 Industry News - A group of more than ten former US financial officials issued a joint statement on the 12th criticizing the Trump administration's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, stating that the Fed's independence is crucial to the US economy [12]. - On January 12, the US State Department issued a top - level warning through its "Virtual Embassy in Iran", asking all US citizens in Iran to "leave immediately". Trump also stated that any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff in any business with the US [12]. - China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China hopes and supports Iran in maintaining national stability, opposes interference in other countries' internal affairs, and hopes that all parties will do more to promote peace and stability in the Middle East [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple graphs related to the iron ore market, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between spot and May contracts, the shipping volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port trading volumes, steel mill inventory - available days, import sintered powder ore inventories, port inventories and port clearance volumes, sample steel mill tax - free hot metal costs, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mill inventories of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][20][22].

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.80%, the Nasdaq down 0.10%, and the S&P 500 down 0.19% [2][4] - Bank stocks experienced a significant decline, with JPMorgan falling over 4%, Goldman Sachs down more than 1%, and Bank of America down over 1% [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with market expectations, while the core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below expectations [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the stable inflation data may allow the Federal Reserve to adopt a more moderate stance, although a rate cut in January is not guaranteed [5][6] Group 3: Corporate Earnings - JPMorgan reported adjusted revenue of $46.77 billion for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 7%, but net profit decreased by 7% to $13 billion due to one-time credit provisions [4] - Excluding factors related to the Apple credit card portfolio, JPMorgan's net profit could reach $14.7 billion, indicating robust core business growth [4] Group 4: Global Central Bank Support - Central banks from multiple countries issued a rare joint statement supporting the independence of the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizing the importance of maintaining this independence [6] Group 5: Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced the cancellation of all talks with Iranian officials, coinciding with a security warning from the US State Department urging citizens to leave Iran immediately [7][8]

太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)、PGIM及德意志资产管理等大型债券投资机构的基金经理警告，美国总 统特朗普对美联储独立性的冲击，未能压低利率，反将推高利率。他们指出，若削弱美联储抗通胀的公 信力，将为金融市场注入重大新风险。在不确定性持续下，交易员或会令美国国库债收益率维持在较高 水平，从而推高按揭、企业贷款及其他信贷成本。PGIM固定收益联席投资总监Gregory Peters表示，市 场将对美联储视为不稳定来源而感到不安。他形容，司法部威胁起诉美联储主席鲍威尔的消息，反映制 度规范进一步受损，对中长期影响深远。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides detailed insights into the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on the market conditions. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices continue to show a strong performance. Short - term prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and hold the previously recommended call options [2]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The transaction of coking coal in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with futures. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [3]. - **Meal Products**: The USDA report data is bearish, and beans are under pressure. The domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high, and the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [4]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A - share major indices rose first and then fell. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined with the indices, and the basis of the main contracts continued to rise [5][6]. - **News**: The Ministry of Commerce proposed to continue imposing anti - dumping duties on imported solar - grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. Overseas, the US prosecutor's office launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and the US December CPI was in line with expectations [6][7]. - **Funding**: On January 13, the A - share market trading volume reached a new high, and the central bank conducted a net injection of 3424 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH with a relatively weak previous increase. For small - and - medium - cap indices, use bull spreads and pay attention to risk prevention [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, and long - term bonds performed better. The yield of major interest - rate bonds fluctuated [8]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 3586 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on January 13, with a net injection of 3424 billion yuan. However, the money market tightened, and attention should be paid to the central bank's subsequent actions [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is in a volatile market in the short term, lacking a trend. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for unilateral strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US December CPI was in line with expectations, and the fiscal deficit in December 2025 reached a record high. The CME adjusted the margin setting for precious metal contracts. The prices of precious metals showed a differentiated trend, with silver leading the rise [10][11][12]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the medium - long term. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above the 20 - day moving average, hold long positions in silver above 75 US dollars, and buy platinum and palladium on dips near the 20 - day moving average [12][13]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Shipping Index**: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index rose, and the SCFI composite index fell slightly. The spot price of shipping is gradually entering a downward cycle [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The futures price of the main contract declined, and the spot price will continue to put downward pressure on the futures [15]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level, and the downstream operating rate is weak. The medium - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term is affected by inventory and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a wide - range shock. The supply is rigid, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The price is at a high level and fluctuating widely. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to build long positions [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost drives the price up, but the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 can be considered [26][28]. - **Zinc**: The price center has moved up, and the spot transaction is average. The supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is inhibited. It is recommended to focus on the support at 23,800 and go long on dips in the long term [30][33]. - **Tin**: The price continues to be strong. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [33][37]. - **Nickel**: The news reaction is gradually digested, and the price is mainly fluctuating. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies [37][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is fluctuating narrowly. The cost and demand are in a game. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with a reference range of 13,400 - 14,200 [40][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment is strong, and the price continues to rise. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see [44][46]. - **Polysilicon**: The long positions have reduced their positions, and the price has further declined. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the subsequent production reduction and demand recovery [47][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is mainly fluctuating. The supply and demand are both weak in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the production reduction and the change in polysilicon production [50][51]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and the steel price is in a volatile pattern. It is expected to fluctuate in January, with a reference range of 3050 - 3250 for rebar and 3200 - 3350 for hot - rolled coils [52][53][54]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a reference range of 770 - 830. It is recommended to operate within the range [55][56]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [57][61]. - **Coke**: After the fourth - round price cut at the beginning of the year, the price has stabilized. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62][67]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5500 [68][69]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The external price of manganese ore has generally risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5800 [70][72]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The USDA report data is bearish, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [73][75]. - **Hogs**: After the holiday, the demand has declined. It is expected to be in a volatile and bearish pattern in January [76][77]. - **Corn**: The supply is tight, and the downstream has rigid demand for stocking. The price is expected to be supported, but the increase is limited by policy. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy implementation [78][80]. - **Sugar**: The Unica production data is bullish, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [81]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report is slightly bullish, and the domestic cotton price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term price may enter an adjustment period [84][85]. - **Eggs**: The terminal inventory has increased, and the market trading has slowed down. The futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [88]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil has risen first and then fallen, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil are affected by various factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of different oils [89][91][92]. - **Red Dates**: The spot price is supported, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range. It is recommended to short on rallies [94]. - **Apples**: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures price is rising. The short - term price is supported by the low good - fruit rate and low inventory, but the long - term price is affected by consumption. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [95][96]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase under high valuation, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is expected to be low - bought in the medium term [97][98]. - **PTA**: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the pre - holiday driving force is limited. It is recommended to follow the raw material price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 in the short term and be low - bought in the medium term [99][100]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and shrink the processing fee on rallies [101]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand will both decrease in January. The absolute price and processing fee will follow the cost fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [102][103]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 for EG2605, conduct reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 on rallies, and sell out - of - the - money call options on EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies [105]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but the price is still under pressure due to high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [106]. - **Styrene**: It is short - term strong, but the upward space is limited under high valuation and weak expectation. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee on rallies [107][108]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [109][110]. - **PP**: The number of maintenance has increased, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to hold the position with an expanding PDH profit [110]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see [110][111]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the spot transaction is light. The price is expected to be stable and weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream procurement volume and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [111][112]. - **PVC**: The export factor amplifies the price fluctuation, and the short - term trading focus is not on supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions in the short term [113][114]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the downstream is cautious about high - priced purchases. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to the production resumption rhythm and downstream demand [116][117]. - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion [118][120]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair and restocking maintain the price strength. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion and supply - demand balance [118][121]. - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw material price is high, and the rubber price is fluctuating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the raw material output in Thailand [121][123]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is firm, but the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The BR2603 is expected to run in the range of 11,800 - 12,500. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - level disturbances [124][126].