期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货铝周报 中长需求稳健增长，铝价只是阶段调整 20260118 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 期现市场 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性， ...

Market Insights - The report indicates that the increase in financing margin ratios is gradually being digested by the market, with the impact nearing its end. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts are expected to boost policy expectations, and additional policies may be introduced following the release of macroeconomic data for 2025, which could enhance market risk appetite [3][4] - The upcoming release of 2025 macroeconomic data on January 19 is anticipated to show a significant decline in GDP growth for Q4 compared to Q3. This, combined with various policy measures, suggests an increased probability of a "good start" for Q1, which is likely to uplift market risk appetite [4][11] Industry Allocation - The report asserts that the acceleration in market trends has not ended, but the structure of the upward trend is shifting towards computing power. The previous leading sectors, such as military and AI applications, have seen declines, raising investor concerns about the end of the current market phase. However, the report suggests that the current market phase may still extend with potential acceleration in sectors related to computing power [5][20] - As of January 12, 2026, the electric equipment sector has not yet reached new highs, indicating that the growth style and six major growth industries have not simultaneously achieved new highs. The report highlights that the electric equipment index has room for approximately 3% growth to meet this condition [20][23] - The report identifies that the communication and electronic sectors, which were previously strong, may experience a rapid rebound, with potential upward space of no less than 10%. The report emphasizes that the current market conditions do not satisfy the "stronger gets stronger" characteristic, as the leading sectors have not maintained their strength [20][24] - The report also notes that the turnover rates for the growth style and the communication sector are approaching their respective highs, but the communication sector still has a significant gap to close. This suggests that the current market phase has not yet concluded, and a rapid increase in turnover rates may accompany a rebound in the communication sector [27][31] Key Investment Themes - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. The AI industry chain, particularly in computing power (CPO/PCB), supporting components (fiber optics/liquid cooling/power equipment), and applications (robots/games/software), is expected to continue its upward trend. The report anticipates that applications may experience high volatility, while computing power is likely to see accelerated growth [32][33] 2. Areas supported by favorable market conditions or significant events, such as storage and energy storage chains, military industry, and machinery, are also highlighted. The storage sector is expected to benefit from supply disruptions and increased AI demand, while the military sector may gain from commercial aerospace and geopolitical events [33]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes long-term opportunities with the strategy "蓄力新高" suggesting that the Shanghai Composite Index briefly broke 4000, while the 2026 strategy "奔马资产, 策马逐牛" focuses on embracing "奔马资产" (globally competitive leaders) leading to a revaluation of value [3][10] - The mid-term analysis indicates a potential for market fluctuations towards the end of the year, with a strong market rally observed in the first week of January, confirming previous predictions [3][10] Industry and Sector Analysis - Leading sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals remain core themes, with internal shifts observed, such as a transition from rare earths and precious metals to industrial metals and lithium-cobalt-nickel within non-ferrous metals, and from consumer electronics to storage and semiconductor equipment in electronics [4][14] - The report identifies three key investment directions: 1. Core growth assets, particularly in the Hang Seng Internet sector, benefiting from platform economy support and potential AI catalysts, alongside improvements in US-China relations and passive foreign capital inflow due to RMB appreciation [5][13] 2. Globally competitive assets (奔马 50), which are expected to benefit from global economic recovery, strong policy support, and institutional capital inflow, with a high cost-performance ratio due to trends in AI, high-end manufacturing, and resource supply-side adjustments [5][13] 3. Emerging growth sectors, particularly those related to the "Musk chain," focusing on AI applications and underground transportation, with a bottom-up investment approach in areas like computing power and humanoid robots [5][13] Market Dynamics - The report notes that despite recent volatility, the fundamentals of a long-term bull market remain intact, with market sentiment high and financing balances nearing a ten-year high, indicating a healthy market environment [7][11] - Historical patterns suggest that after a major rally, the market may enter a consolidation phase, but the underlying growth logic remains strong, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the ChiNext AI sector, highlighting a 2% decline in the ChiNext AI index while significant capital inflows continue, particularly into the AI application and computing power sectors [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext AI sector experienced a 2% drop, with AI application stocks like Hand Information, BlueFocus, and Kunlun Wanwei falling over 10% [1][7]. - Despite the decline in AI application stocks, computing power stocks such as LianTe Technology, TaiChen Guang, and ZhiShang Technology saw gains of over 5% [1][7]. - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) recorded a 1.81% decrease, with a trading volume exceeding 1.2 billion yuan and a net subscription of 436 million units on that day [1][7]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and ETF Performance - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) has seen a total inflow of approximately 1.678 billion yuan over the week, with 1.2 billion yuan added in the previous four days [1][9]. - As of January 15, the ChiNext AI ETF reached a record size of 5.527 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of nearly 800 million yuan over the past six months, leading among eight ETFs tracking the ChiNext AI index [3][11]. Group 3: Sector Outlook and Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the ongoing high demand for computing power driven by AI applications, with the light module sector expected to be a key area for investment during the current market correction [3][11]. - The light module industry is in a high prosperity cycle, with significant growth in demand for high-end light modules anticipated due to AI computing needs [3][11]. - The ChiNext AI ETF is positioned to benefit from the commercialization of AI technology, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to computing power and 40% to AI applications [5][11].

- The report introduces a **market timing system** that uses the distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average of the WIND All A Index to determine market trends. The system identifies an uptrend when the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, with a significant distance threshold of 3%[2][6][11] - The **industry trend allocation model** is highlighted, which signals opportunities in specific sectors. For the medium term, the "distressed reversal expectation model" suggests focusing on innovative healthcare. The "TWO BETA model" continues to recommend the technology sector, particularly AI applications and commercial aerospace after adjustments. In the short term, the "earnings trend model" points to opportunities in computing power (e.g., Sci-Tech Chip ETF, code 588200) and energy storage batteries (e.g., Energy Storage Battery ETF, code 159566)[2][5][7] - The **position management model** is used to determine stock allocation levels. Based on the WIND All A Index's valuation and trend, the model recommends an 80% stock allocation for absolute return products[5][7] - The **valuation indicators** for the WIND All A Index are also discussed. The PE ratio is at the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, representing a medium level[5][7][11]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Colossus 2, the world's first 1GW supercomputing cluster, marks a significant advancement in AI infrastructure, with plans to upgrade to 1.5GW by April and potentially reach 2GW, which could match the power consumption of major U.S. cities [2][12]. Group 1: Colossus 2 Overview - Colossus 2 is equipped with approximately 200,000 NVIDIA H100/H200 GPUs and around 30,000 NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 GPUs, significantly enhancing its computational power compared to its predecessor, Colossus 1, which was built in just 122 days [9][10]. - The cluster's 1GW capacity can power about 750,000 households, equivalent to the peak power demand of San Francisco [11]. - Once fully operational, Colossus 2 will house 555,000 GPUs, surpassing the GPU counts of Meta, Microsoft, and Google [13][14]. Group 2: Implications for AI Development - The advancements in Colossus 2 are expected to facilitate the development of Grok 5, which is projected to have parameters around 6 trillion, more than double that of Grok 4 [15][18]. - With the recent $20 billion funding round for xAI, the scaling capabilities for Grok 5 are increasing, leading to larger model parameters and faster training and deployment speeds [18][19]. - The rapid development of AI models is seen as a competitive advantage in the industry, emphasizing that speed is a crucial factor in the AI era [20]. Group 3: Energy Supply Concerns - The construction of large data centers like Colossus 2 is contributing to a projected annual electricity demand growth of 4.8% over the next decade, which is unprecedented for the U.S. energy system [27]. - The imbalance between rapidly increasing demand and slow supply growth is causing concerns about the stability of the power grid, leading to potential rolling blackouts for 67 million residents in 13 states during extreme weather [5][22][23]. - PJM, the regional transmission organization, is struggling to maintain supply-demand balance and has proposed measures to reduce peak demand from data centers, which have faced opposition from major tech companies [32][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TSMC is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - TSMC confirms the strength and sustainability of AI demand, leading to an upward revision of long-term guidance and boosting the AI narrative [3] - Capital expenditures have been raised beyond expectations, with wafer manufacturing remaining a bottleneck, indicating a positive outlook for computing power [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for TSMC are adjusted to NT$ 4,880,557 million for FY2026, NT$ 6,151,836 million for FY2027, and NT$ 7,532,792 million for FY2028, reflecting growth rates of 28%, 26%, and 22% respectively [5] - GAAP net profit is projected to be NT$ 2,362,106 million for FY2026, NT$ 2,976,546 million for FY2027, and NT$ 3,650,595 million for FY2028, with growth rates of 38%, 26%, and 23% respectively [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase to 63.5% in FY2026 and 64.0% in FY2028 [5] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings forecast for TSMC has been adjusted to NT$ 4,880.6 billion for FY2026, NT$ 6,151.8 billion for FY2027, and NT$ 7,532.8 billion for FY2028, with GAAP net profit projected at NT$ 23,621 million, NT$ 29,765 million, and NT$ 36,506 million respectively [11] - The target price for TSMC's stock is set at $407 for FY2027, based on a PE ratio of 22x [11]

Core Insights - China is projected to have more electricity than any other country and potentially more chips, leading to a significant advantage in AI computing power by 2026, with an estimated electricity generation three times that of the US [1][6][9] Group 1: Importance of Energy in AI Development - The rapid growth of AI is shifting energy supply from a traditional support role to a critical factor influencing industry competitiveness, with data centers' electricity demand increasing significantly [3][9] - A robust and continuously upgraded power system is essential for leading AI computing capabilities, as AI activities are highly energy-intensive [3][9] - The relationship between energy, chips, and algorithms forms a "computing power triangle," where energy supports scaling, chips are the output carriers, and algorithms enhance efficiency [4][9] Group 2: Collaborative Optimization Pathways - The industry is developing a collaborative optimization path among energy, chips, and algorithms, utilizing strategies like "cluster breakthroughs" to enhance performance in specific scenarios [4][10] - Distributed training of large models requires substantial chip clusters, which depend on stable energy supply for optimal performance [10][12] Group 3: Advantages from Energy Supply and Policy - The large-scale development of renewable energy sources like wind and solar enhances electricity supply stability and reduces costs, creating favorable conditions for AI computing expansion [6][12] - Forward-looking policies are guiding the construction of computing hubs and data center clusters, aligning energy supply with computing demand and improving energy efficiency [6][12] Group 4: Innovation and Ecosystem Collaboration - Companies are leveraging technological innovations to enhance computing efficiency and create a comprehensive AI industry ecosystem, driving rapid growth in the digital economy [7][13] - The modernization of the energy system is seen as a key competitive factor in the AI era, with China's focus on energy transformation supporting its economic and carbon neutrality goals [7][13]

Core Viewpoint - The AI sector in the ChiNext market is experiencing a significant influx of capital, despite a recent 2% decline in the ChiNext AI index, with notable fluctuations in AI application stocks and continued strength in computing power-related stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) has shown strong performance, achieving an eight-week consecutive increase with a cumulative gain of 34.66%, outperforming similar AI-themed indices [1][3]. - The ETF recorded a daily net subscription of 436 million units, with a total weekly inflow of approximately 1.678 billion yuan, indicating robust investor interest [1][3]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The light module industry is in a high prosperity cycle, driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power, with supply becoming a core issue [3]. - Major manufacturers in the light module sector are accelerating capacity expansion, with expectations of a significant release of production capacity in Q1 2026, which could drive a new performance growth phase [3]. Group 3: Fund Characteristics - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) has reached a record size of 5.527 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of nearly 800 million yuan over the past six months, leading among eight ETFs tracking the ChiNext AI index [3]. - The ETF has been included in the Stock Connect program, effective January 19, which is expected to enhance its trading activity and attract northbound capital [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current trend in AI development is shifting from computing power construction to application implementation, making the ChiNext AI ETF a direct beneficiary of the commercialization of AI technology [5]. - The ETF's portfolio consists of approximately 60% in computing power (primarily light modules) and 40% in AI applications, representing both core computing and true AI application sectors [5].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's recent earnings report exceeded market expectations, igniting a new wave of AI-themed market enthusiasm, with a record capital expenditure plan of up to $56 billion by 2026, boosting confidence across the semiconductor industry [1] Group 1: Impressive Earnings - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached approximately $33.7 billion, with a net profit of $16 billion, showing significant year-on-year growth [2] - The gross margin increased to 62.3%, indicating strong pricing power and technological advantages in advanced processes [2] - High-performance computing revenue, including CPU, GPU, and AI acceleration chips, grew significantly, accounting for 55% of total revenue, surpassing smartphone business for the first time [2] - The 3nm and 5nm processes contributed over 60% of revenue, demonstrating the financial returns from technological leadership [2] Group 2: Bold Future Investments - TSMC provided an optimistic revenue growth forecast of nearly 30% for 2026 and raised its capital expenditure plan to $52 billion to $56 billion, a nearly 30% increase from the previous year [3] - This investment decision was made after extensive discussions with major clients like NVIDIA, Apple, and AMD, aimed at addressing confirmed long-term structural demand driven by AI [3] - A significant portion of the capital expenditure (10%-20%) will be allocated to advanced packaging technology to enhance AI chip production capacity [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Revaluation - TSMC's positive outlook has triggered a value reassessment across the semiconductor supply chain, particularly benefiting semiconductor equipment manufacturers [4] - ASML, the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, saw its market value soar past $500 billion following TSMC's report, becoming one of Europe's highest-valued tech companies [4] - The optimistic sentiment spread to the broader chip sector, with stocks of companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Micron Technologies rising [4] Group 4: Evolving AI Demand - The underlying logic supporting TSMC and the industry's confidence is the qualitative shift in AI demand, moving from model training to inference needs driven by widespread application [5][6] - As AI transitions from experimental phases to various industries, the demand for computing power is expected to grow exponentially, indicating a more sustainable demand base [6] Group 5: Challenges Ahead - Despite the optimism, there are cautious voices regarding the sustainability of high profitability and capital returns amid geopolitical pressures and cyclical risks [7] - TSMC's $56 billion capital expenditure requires sustained high customer orders over several years to avoid potential overcapacity risks [7] - The high costs of building fabs in regions like the U.S., Japan, and Europe compared to Taiwan pose long-term profitability challenges [7]