Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bullish outlook for stock index futures and recommends using a long - straddle buying strategy for stock index options to capture the trend after direction selection. The short - term positive news such as the favorable policies on May 7 and the stage results of China - US tariff negotiations on May 12 are beneficial to the stock market. Currently, the valuation levels of major Chinese indices are still low, and it is cost - effective for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts in different periods decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with declines ranging from - 0.67% to - 0.74%. The trading volume was between 3,433 and 59,965, and the open interest decreased from - 244 to - 11,402 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts in different periods increased, with increases ranging from 1.75% to 2.01%. The trading volume was between 2,516 and 48,329, and the open interest increased from 1,153 to 13,041 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.10% to - 1.17%. The trading volume was between 5,256 and 58,925, and the open interest decreased from - 9 to - 12,886 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.28% to - 1.40%. The trading volume was between 10,403 and 155,023, and the open interest changes ranged from - 15,638 to 722 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed certain changes, with current values of - 35.40, - 18.40, - 97.80, and - 109.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 35.60, - 20.40, - 102.20, and - 113.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Indices**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased, with declines of - 0.91%, - 0.49%, - 1.45%, and - 1.68% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed to varying degrees [1] - **Industry Indices**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities industries all showed different degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 0.37% to 2.21% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indices showed certain changes. For example, the basis of IF contracts relative to the CSI 300 index changed from - 4.26 to - 0.21 for the current - month contract, and the basis of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index changed from 2.22 to 0.50 for the current - month contract [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.68% to - 1.91% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by - 0.79%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by - 0.98%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.41%, and the DAX Index increased by 0.72% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic large - scale cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic economic stability. The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a guiding opinion to safeguard the high - quality development of the capital market. The top - level design for urban renewal in China was introduced. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips, and the Fed Chairman Powell considered adjusting the core content of the monetary policy framework [2] 6. Industry Information - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut on May 7, over a hundred bank wealth management products had their performance comparison benchmarks lowered, and the industry may face an "asset shortage." 19 FOF products issued liquidation warning announcements this year, with many experiencing significant scale shrinkage. The real estate industry in 2024 was still in an adjustment period, with only 11 out of the top 30 real estate enterprises achieving revenue growth. The domestic HarmonyOS ecosystem has a million - level talent gap, which is expected to widen in the next three years [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable and sustainable economic growth, aiming for high-quality development [1] - The State Council has issued guidelines for urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of old neighborhoods, factories, and villages, with eight main tasks outlined [1] - The People's Bank of China and other departments are committed to supporting technological innovation by encouraging financial institutions to increase loans for tech enterprises [1] Group 2 - Alibaba reported a 7% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, reaching 236.45 billion yuan, with a 22% increase in non-GAAP net profit to 29.847 billion yuan [1] - NetEase announced a 7.4% year-on-year increase in net revenue for Q1 of 2025, amounting to 28.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.2 billion yuan compared to 8.5 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new regulations for the supervision of funds raised by listed companies, emphasizing the dedicated use of funds to support the real economy [1] - The Supreme Court and the CSRC have issued guidelines to ensure fair enforcement of laws and judicial services to support the high-quality development of the capital market [1]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.68%，深成指收 跌 1.62%，创业板指收跌 1.92%。沪深两市成交额 11522.45 亿元；申 万行业方面，美容护理、煤炭、公用事业领涨，计算机、通信、电子 领跌；概念板块方面，NMN 概念、合成生物、宠物经济概念涨幅居前， 华为盘古、DRG/DIP、华为昇腾概念跌幅居前；港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 0.79%，恒生科技指数收跌 1.56%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨 跌不一，道指收涨 0.65%，标普 500 收涨 0.41%，纳指收跌 0.18%。 【重要新闻】 【国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会】国务院总理李强在会上强 调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在 做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国 际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 【我国城市更新顶层设计出台】中办、国办近日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market are influenced by multiple factors including economic policies, international trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, in the financial market, the Fed's potential policy framework changes affect the performance of the US dollar index and US stock index futures; in the commodity market, supply - demand relationships in industries such as steel, copper, and agricultural products determine price trends [14][22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The release of the urban renewal action plan clarifies the path for domestic economic support, and fixed - asset investment will maintain a high proportion in the economy. Attention should be paid to the marginal change of PPI to determine the elasticity of corporate profit margins. It is recommended to allocate large, medium, and small - cap stock indices evenly [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated sharply, first falling then rising and finally closing higher. With the easing of tariffs and geopolitical military conflicts, funds are flowing out of gold. The short - term gold price is still in the adjustment process, not fully stabilized, and the increased volatility makes trading more difficult. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of price decline and wait before bottom - fishing [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is preparing to modify its policy framework, which means a significant change in future policy thinking. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's change in the monetary framework may increase its tolerance for inflation, and high inflation and high interest rates may exist for a longer period. Economic data shows that inflation and consumption data continue to weaken, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased. The short - term market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index fluctuates strongly, but it is recommended to treat it as range - bound due to potential negotiation uncertainties [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Market concerns about the US biodiesel policy have led to a significant decline in the prices of US soybean oil and US soybean futures. Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts have been raised. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased this week, but the marginal weakness in the manufacturing terminal has not been completely reversed. Steel prices are in a stage of rebound, but lack the momentum for a sharp rise. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term, wait for the market to rebound, and pay attention to changes in the export end [31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry has declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. The factors affecting the CS - C futures spread are complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating weakly. With the improvement of the macro - environment, coking coal may stabilize with the overall black metal sector in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not changed, and attention should be paid to demand changes [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly increased, while the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has declined. It is recommended to hold the previously entered 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads, and pay attention to the results of import auctions [36][37]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Foran Mining is promoting the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. US economic data is weakening marginally, and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising. Domestic short - term inventory is still being depleted. Copper prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations and wait and see for arbitrage [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Considering the delayed resumption of production at the southwest base of leading enterprises and the planned production cuts and overhauls of some enterprises, the polysilicon production plan for May has been revised down. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and focus on arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - There are rumors that northern large - scale factories plan to resume production, and some silicon factories in Sichuan are gradually resuming production. Demand is still weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [45][46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market risk appetite has been repaired, but the mine price has not stabilized, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased significantly. Under the intertwined situation of multiple factors, there is no clear unilateral logic for lead prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc has increased. The short - term spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for previous short positions, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rebounds for those not yet entered [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to band operations within the range [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and both refinery and port inventories are accumulating. The price has insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to changes in Shandong spot prices and factory warehouse behaviors [61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - It is recommended to continue to be bearish on NYMEX natural gas [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - After a short - term rapid rise, PTA prices may start to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended that long positions consider taking profit and waiting and seeing [69][70]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is still strong in the short term, and the futures price is also expected to be strong [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the pulp futures price to stabilize and rebound [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the PVC price to stabilize and rebound [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Short - term maintenance of soda ash plants may support the spot and futures prices, but the medium - term view is to short on price rebounds [79]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Under the situation of weak reality and the absence of favorable policies, the glass futures price will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to changes in real - estate policies [81].

美联储主席鲍威尔在演讲中表示，随着经济和政策不断变动，长期利率可能会走高。他警告称："我们 可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、可能更持久的时期——这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑 战。"美联储将重新审视政策框架。 美国与卡塔尔签署超2435亿美元经济及军事合作协议。卡塔尔投资局计划在未来十年内向美国追加5000 亿美元的投资。 特朗普：希望苹果停止将iPhone产业转移到印度。 李强：把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 美股方面，三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.65%，标普500指数涨0.41%，纳指跌0.18%。 大型科技股多数下跌，亚马逊、Meta跌超2%，特斯拉跌超1%，苹果、英伟达、谷歌小幅下跌；奈飞涨 超2%，微软、英特尔小幅上涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.37%。网易大涨超14%，股价逼近历史新高；向上 融科跌超8%，阿里巴巴、文远知行跌逾7%，富途控股跌超5%，京东、百度、蔚来跌逾3%。 | | | 隔夜美股概览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 道琼斯 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to stabilize and promote long-term economic growth, aiming for high-quality development [2] - The Ministry of Commerce urges the U.S. to correct its restrictive measures on Chinese chips, asserting that such actions hinder sustainable cooperation between enterprises [3] - The Ministry of Commerce reiterates that all parties involved in the sale of the port by CK Hutchison must not evade regulatory scrutiny, highlighting the importance of fair market competition [4] Group 2 - Bridgewater's latest holdings report reveals significant changes, including a substantial increase in positions in Alibaba and a new investment in JD.com, while reducing its stake in Nvidia [6] - The Federal Reserve is reassessing its policy framework to adapt to post-pandemic inflation dynamics, with potential adjustments expected to be announced in August or September [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations on the use of raised funds by listed companies, emphasizing dedicated use for core business and supporting the real economy [8] Group 3 - Alibaba's latest financial report shows a revenue of 236.45 billion yuan for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, marking a 7% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITA rising by 36% [21][22] - Xiaomi announces the upcoming release of its self-developed SoC chip named "Xuanjie O1," which is expected to enhance mobile performance [20] - Wahaha responds to production issues due to capacity constraints, indicating adjustments in production and outsourcing to meet market demands [23][24]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework, indicating that zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario and that there is a need to reconsider the language around labor market slack and average inflation rates, with an expectation that April PCE will drop to 2.2% [8] - Coinbase reported that customer data was compromised, and the company rejected a $20 million ransom from hackers, while the SEC is investigating its alleged misreporting of user numbers [10] - Alibaba's fourth fiscal quarter revenue reached 236.45 billion yuan, and the company plans to distribute $4.6 billion in dividends, while also forecasting that profits may be impacted by investments in instant retail [10] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by 0.65%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.18% [4] - European stock indices experienced gains, with Germany's DAX 30 rising by 0.72% and the UK's FTSE 100 increasing by 0.57% [4] - The Hong Kong stock market faced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.79% at 23,453.16 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 1.56% [4]

1、国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理李强在会上强调， 要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循 环上， 以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 2、司法保障资本市场改革发展迎来纲领性文件。最高人民法院、证监会联合发布《关于严格公正执法司法服务保障资本市场高质量发展的指导意见》， 其中提出，依法打击资本违规隐形入股、违法违规"造富"行为；依法打击欺诈发行和持续信息披露造假，坚持"追首恶"、"打帮凶"。 对于编传"小作文"损 害他人权益且构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。 3、我国城市更新顶层设计出台。中办、国办近日印发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》，提出八方面主要任务，其中包括： 推进城镇老旧小区整治 改造，开展完整社区建设，推进老旧街区、老旧厂区、城中村等更新改造， 加强城市基础设施建设改造等。这意味着中国大力实施城市更新按下"加速 键"。 4、商务部回应"美方加严限制中国芯片"表示，中方敦促美方立即纠正错误做法，并将采取坚决措施维护中国企业正当权益。商务部还重申， 长和出售港 口交易各方不得规避审查。 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. misuse of export control measures against Huawei's Ascend chips, stating that it will take resolute measures to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [3] - Alibaba reported a revenue of 236.45 billion yuan for the fourth fiscal quarter and announced a dividend of 4.6 billion USD, while forecasting that profits from Taobao and Tmall may be impacted by investments in instant retail [3] International News - Japan is seeking to hold a third round of trade negotiations with the U.S. next week, while the U.S. is considering modifying the U.S.-Japan trade agreement. The EU and the U.S. will accelerate trade negotiations, with the EU hoping for a greater reduction in tariffs compared to the UK [4] - Coinbase reported that customer data was compromised and rejected a 20 million USD ransom from hackers, while the SEC is investigating the company for allegedly misreporting user numbers [5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework, stating that zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario and that the wording regarding employment shortfalls and average inflation rates needs to be reconsidered. The April PCE is expected to drop to 2.2% [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly raised its forecast for average oil demand growth in 2025 to 740,000 barrels per day and adjusted the supply growth expectation to 1.6 million barrels per day [6]

Overnight Market - US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.41%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.18% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Amazon and Meta down over 2%, and Tesla down over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.37% [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation may become more volatile, presenting challenges for the economy and the central bank [2] - International gold prices rebounded, with spot gold up 1.98% to $3,239.63 per ounce [2] - International oil prices fell significantly, with WTI crude down 2.31% to $61.69 per barrel [2] Domestic Economic Initiatives - The State Council emphasized strengthening domestic circulation to counter international uncertainties and promote high-quality development [3] - The central government will support urban renewal actions through diversified financing methods and encourage local governments to increase fiscal investment [4] Health Sector Investigation - The National Health Commission reported on the investigation of a medical professional involved in a public incident, resulting in severe penalties [5] Financial Regulation - The Supreme Court and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued guidelines to strictly regulate securities enforcement to avoid illegal stock reductions [6] Technology and Finance Collaboration - The People's Bank of China and other departments held a meeting to enhance support for technological innovation through financial mechanisms [7] Financial Market Opening - The People's Bank of China announced plans to enrich the "Swap Connect" product types to promote high-level financial market opening [8] Trade Relations and Export Controls - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to US export control measures against Huawei's Ascend chips, asserting the need to protect Chinese enterprises' rights [9] Corporate Developments - Alibaba reported a 18% increase in cloud revenue, driven by strong AI demand, with core business growth accelerating [15] - Wahaha addressed media concerns regarding production adjustments and labor disputes, stating that it is optimizing production capacity [17] - Pony.ai announced plans to eliminate safety drivers in its autonomous taxi fleet and aims to deploy thousands of vehicles within three years [18][19] - General Motors confirmed restructuring its high-end import vehicle platform in response to changing economic conditions [22] - Apple faced pressure from former President Trump to halt its manufacturing plans in India [23] - Huawei announced the upcoming launch of new products featuring its HarmonyOS [24] - Xiaomi is set to release its self-developed mobile SoC chip "Xuanjie O1" later this month [25]