Market Performance - During the National Day holiday (October 1-7, 2025), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.57%, 0.39%, and 0.44% respectively[3] - The Nasdaq China Technology Index rose by 1.59%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.38% during the same period[3] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields primarily decreased, with the 10-year yield falling by 2 basis points to 4.14% as of October 7, 2025[4] - The yield curve steepened, with all maturities except for the 30-year remaining unchanged or decreasing during the holiday[4] Currency Trends - The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.78%, with the dollar appreciating against the Euro, Pound, and Yen by 0.65%, 0.17%, and 2.70% respectively[5] - The offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar, rising to 7.1458, a 0.24% increase[5] Gold Market - Gold prices surged, with London spot gold rising by 4.02% to $3979.00 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures increasing by 3.40% to the same price[6] - A rebound in domestic gold prices is anticipated post-holiday due to the significant rise in international prices[6] Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, due to budget disagreements, which may lead to increased unemployment and reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting GDP growth[7] - The delay in non-farm payroll data release adds to economic uncertainty, affecting market predictions[8] Political Developments - Japan's political landscape may shift with the election of the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party, which could escalate geopolitical tensions in East Asia due to her conservative stance[9] Monetary Policy - The central bank plans to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo on October 9, 2025, to maintain liquidity, despite a net withdrawal in October due to maturing repos[10] Consumer Spending - The fourth batch of 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods has been allocated, expected to boost retail sales in the fourth quarter[10] Investment Strategy - The market may present structural investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, energy storage, and gold, while the bond market remains attractive despite short-term risks[11]

Core Points - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 69 billion yuan in the fourth batch of special long-term bonds to support the consumption of old-for-new products, completing the annual allocation of 300 billion yuan in central funds [1] - From January to August this year, 330 million people have applied for subsidies under the old-for-new policy, driving sales of related products to exceed 2 trillion yuan [1] - Retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment have seen year-on-year growth rates of 28.4%, 22.3%, 22.0%, and 21.1% respectively, contributing to a 4.6% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [1] Implementation and Oversight - The NDRC plans to further organize local governments to reasonably manage the pace of work, improve fund usage plans, and ensure balanced and orderly expenditure of subsidy funds [1] - There will be an emphasis on product quality and price supervision, along with strict measures against fraudulent claims and illegal activities related to subsidies [1] - The goal is to implement the old-for-new policy smoothly and effectively, ensuring that subsidy funds are utilized properly and yield tangible results [1]

新华社北京9月30日电（记者魏弘毅、魏玉坤）记者30日从国家发展改革委获悉，国家发展改革委 近日会同财政部向地方下达了今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金，至此全年 3000亿元中央资金已全部下达。 今年1至8月，全国共有3.3亿人次申领消费品以旧换新补贴，带动相关商品销售额超过2万亿元；限 额以上单位家用电器和音像器材、文化办公用品、家具、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长28.4%、 22.3%、22.0%、21.1%，支撑社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%。 国家发展改革委相关负责人表示，下一步各有关部门将进一步组织地方合理把握工作节奏，完善资 金使用计划，均衡有序支出补贴资金，加强产品质量和价格监管，严厉打击骗补套补等违法违规行为， 平稳有序实施消费品以旧换新政策，推动补贴资金用到实处、见到实效。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵阳】 今年以来，国家发展改革委会同财政部等部门有序下达超长期特别国债资金支持消费品以旧换新。 各地各有关部门持续完善实施机制，强化资金监督管理，推动消费品以旧换新政策取得积极成效。 ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated a total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, with the latest batch being 69 billion yuan [1][2] - The government aims to boost consumption as a primary task this year, with the "old-for-new" policy playing a significant role in this initiative [2][3] - From January to August, 330 million people have claimed subsidies under the "old-for-new" policy, leading to over 2 trillion yuan in related sales, contributing to a 4.6% year-on-year growth in total retail sales of consumer goods [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that future consumption policies may expand the scope of subsidies from durable goods to general consumer goods and services [5] - The government has also introduced new policies to support service consumption, with 19 measures aimed at enhancing service supply in various sectors [6] - The expected growth rate of retail sales is projected to reach 4.5% this year, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point acceleration compared to the previous year [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Guangzhou's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 723.41 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [1] - Key consumption sectors such as home appliances and furniture have shown active performance, indicating effective market potential release [1] - In the first eight months, the retail sales of furniture, cultural and office supplies, and household appliances and audio-visual equipment in Guangzhou's wholesale and retail industry amounted to 46.526 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9 times, 39.8%, and 17.9% respectively [1]

Core Insights - Qinghai Province's retail sales of consumer goods have shown a month-on-month increase, surpassing the national average growth rate for two consecutive months [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - From January to August, Qinghai Province achieved a total retail sales volume of 68.339 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, exceeding the national growth rate by 0.5 percentage points [1] - In August alone, the retail sales reached 10.614 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, which is 2.7 percentage points higher than the national average [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "trade-in" policy has played a significant role in supporting retail growth, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, building and decoration materials, and communication equipment increasing by 63.4%, 12.9%, and 7.5% respectively from January to August, outpacing the overall retail sales growth [1] - Retail sales of automobiles in the above-limit units increased by 20% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the growth of retail sales [1] Group 3: Consumer Trends - There is a strong demand for smart and green consumption, with retail sales of smart home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as wearable smart devices, increasing by 100.7% and 132.9% respectively from January to August [1] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 95.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for August indicates a stable and improving trend in China's economy, with significant growth in industrial output and service sectors, driven by effective macroeconomic policies and expanding domestic demand [4][5][7]. Economic Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year in August, maintaining a rapid growth rate [5][6]. - The service sector production index grew by 5.6% year-on-year, outperforming the industrial sector [5][6]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in the sales of home appliances and furniture [5][7]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with manufacturing investment growing by 5.1%, indicating strong support for manufacturing upgrades [5][6]. - Equipment and tool investment rose by 14.4% year-on-year, contributing to a 2.1 percentage point increase in fixed asset investment [7]. Foreign Trade and Reserves - The total goods import and export value increased by 3.5% year-on-year in August, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [6][9]. - The export value of electromechanical products grew by 9.2% year-on-year from January to August [6]. Employment and Inflation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, reflecting a slight increase due to the influx of new graduates into the labor market [9][10]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion in the inflation rate over four months [6][9]. Policy Impact - The government's policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment are showing positive effects, contributing to a virtuous cycle of stable demand and production [7][8]. - The third batch of consumption upgrade policies has been implemented, further stimulating consumer demand and related sales [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term supportive conditions for China's economy remain intact, with effective macroeconomic policies and ongoing reforms expected to sustain stable growth [9][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows signs of improved quality and prominent structural highlights, but internal momentum needs consolidation and demand requires further boosting. The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the 5% annual target achievable [4]. - In the equity market, the foundation for a slow - bull market remains. The index is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors are advised to actively participate and focus on high - growth sectors. In the bond market, the upward movement is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for a trending long - position. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, with the expected performance being precious metals > industrial metals > energy products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Economic Overview - **Positive aspects**: The service industry is highly prosperous, with the August service business activity index reaching 50.5%. New and old kinetic energy is accelerating transformation, and the "Two New" policies have strong supporting effects. The "Anti - involution" policy shows results, with the PPI ending its 8 - month decline. The capital activation degree increases, and the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows [4][5]. - **Challenges**: Economic data awaits trend improvement, with the manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line for 5 consecutive months. Internal growth momentum needs consolidation, overseas demand is uncertain, real estate drags on the economy, and the profit structure of industrial enterprises above designated size may further differentiate [4][6]. 3.2 8 - month Economic Sub - data Interpretation - **Manufacturing PMI**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with the production index driving the slight rebound. High - tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs show an upward trend [7]. - **Fixed - asset investment**: The growth rate continues to decline, mainly due to real estate drag. However, high - tech investment remains prosperous [9]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate slightly drops, but the "National Subsidy" and service - consumption policies are expected to support future consumption [10]. - **Exports**: The short - term growth slows down, and the future trend is uncertain due to factors such as high - base effects, policy changes, and overseas economic conditions [11][13]. - **Real estate**: Sales continue to be weak, with both sales area and investment decline expanding. Second - hand housing prices have not stopped falling [14]. - **Production**: It maintains a high level of prosperity, with the added value of industries above designated size growing steadily. Manufacturing is the core support [15]. - **Prices**: The "Anti - involution" policy affects PPI. CPI is weak, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI ends its decline, but the recovery of PPI depends on demand - side policies [18][19]. - **Liquidity**: The total social financing slightly exceeds expectations, but the structure needs improvement, especially the slow recovery of medium - and long - term credit demand [22]. - **Profit**: The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows, and future profit growth depends on multiple factors [23]. 3.3 Future Economic Outlook - **Overseas**: The US economy shows signs of weakness, which may affect China's exports. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts will impact global liquidity [24]. - **Domestic policy**: A certain policy space will be reserved, and policies focus on long - term structural issues [25]. - **Economy**: The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to explore the bottom, consumption has certain support, and exports remain uncertain [25]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Equity market**: The foundation for a slow - bull market exists. Investors are advised to focus on high - growth sectors such as self - controllability, energy storage and new energy, service consumption, and sectors benefiting from Fed rate cuts [27]. - **Bond market**: The upward movement is limited, and it is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.8% [30]. - **Commodity market**: The differentiation intensifies, and it is recommended to focus on precious metals [31].

Group 1: Overall Economic Performance - The retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, with service retail sales growing by 5.1%, indicating a continuous expansion of market sales [1][3] - In August, the retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging consumers to upgrade their purchases and the sales of related products [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The demand for goods consumption continued to grow, with significant increases in retail sales of home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture, all exceeding 10% year-on-year in August [1][2] - Service consumption showed stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% from January to August, driven by tourism and recreational activities during the summer [2][3] Group 3: New Consumption Patterns - Online retail sales increased by 9.6% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the overall retail sales growth, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.4% [2] - The retail volume of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market grew by over 20% year-on-year in the first eight months [2]

Group 1 - In August, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and by 0.37% month-on-month [1] Group 2 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% and a month-on-month growth of 0.17% [2] - Urban retail sales amounted to 34,387 billion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, while rural retail sales reached 5,281 billion yuan, increasing by 4.6% [2] - Retail sales of goods were 35,172 billion yuan, up by 3.6%, and catering revenue was 4,496 billion yuan, growing by 2.1% [2] - Sales of basic living goods and some upgraded products showed strong growth, with retail sales of daily necessities, grain and oil food, and sports and entertainment products increasing by 7.7%, 5.8%, and 16.9% respectively [2] - The effects of the consumption upgrade policy continued to show, with retail sales of furniture, home appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and communication equipment increasing by 18.6%, 14.3%, 14.2%, and 7.3% respectively [2] - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 323,906 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [2] - National online retail sales reached 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6%, with physical goods online retail sales at 80,964 billion yuan, increasing by 6.4%, accounting for 25.0% of total retail sales [2] - From January to August, service retail sales increased by 5.1%, with significant growth in cultural and recreational services, tourism consulting and leasing services, and transportation services [2]