9棉期新闻 深夜有料 | 22次谈及"等 待"，鲍威尔到底在怕啥? 扫码看新闻 北京时间5月8日凌晨结束的5月美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议上，美联储如期"按兵不 动"，维持基准利率在4.25~4.5%水平，为其连续第三次会议维持利率不变。 纵观整场会议，美联储认为"经济增长的不确定性进一步上升"，措辞相较3月进一步加重，同时认为失 业率和通胀双双上行的滞胀风险正在逐步增加，会议表态略偏"鹰派"。 在随后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会上，"观望"一词被提及11次，"等待"共提到了22次，"关税"一词 则被提及超过20次。鲍威尔表示，特朗普政府的新政策仍在不断演变中，其对经济的影响仍然"高度不 确定"。如果已宣布的大幅提升关税持续实施，可能会导致通胀上升、经济增长放缓以及失业率上升。 这意味着美联储认为，在巨大的政策不确定性面前，观望等待或是当前的最优解，排除了预防式降息的 可能。 全球降息浪潮下 鲍威尔到底在怕啥？ 相比上次会议，此次美联储的会议声明淡化了净出口分项对于美国经济增长的负面影响，仍然强调美国 经济处于稳健的扩张状态。 但不可忽视的是，诸多数据已显示出美国经济增长的隐忧。关税政策的反噬作 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a challenging start to the year, with Q1 results not indicative of stronger underlying performance, suggesting an underlying EBITDA potential in the mid-seventy million dollars range [6][8] - Free cash flow guidance for the year has been reaffirmed despite lower EBITDA expectations, with a focus on improving cash flow conversion [7][29] - The company experienced a $10 million impact on earnings due to unplanned plant outages and adverse timing effects related to raw material costs [8][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rubber segment volumes improved by 2.5% year-over-year and 13% sequentially, benefiting from contractual mandates and operational improvements in China [32] - Specialty segment volumes improved 3% sequentially but declined 2% year-over-year, indicating choppy demand particularly in the automotive coatings market [35][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. tire production was down low double-digit percentages in the first two months of the quarter, remaining significantly below pre-COVID levels [9] - The company noted that elevated tire imports into key markets continue to be a headwind for local tire manufacturing [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is positioned to benefit from the changing global trade paradigm, with tariffs expected to positively impact demand for domestic manufacturing [12][17] - A focus on operational reliability and efficiency improvements is underway, with plans to enhance maintenance and reduce equipment failures [27][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the increased likelihood of an economic recession but noted no pronounced weakening in order books at this time [7][20] - The company expects demand to improve in the second half of 2025 as tire imports are anticipated to slow and channel inventories are drawn down [15][52] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its 2025 CapEx spending expectations by $10 million, down to $150 million, reflecting a significant decrease from 2024 levels [30][39] - The company has repurchased $16 million worth of stock in Q1 and a total of $105 million since the inception of its buyback program [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of outages in Q1 - Management indicated that the $13 million impact from outages was primarily contained in Q1, with some costs related to fixed cost absorption and timing [44][48] Question: Expectations for Q2 earnings - Management expects a step-up in earnings in Q2, with the impact of lower oil prices and inventory revaluation being factored into guidance [50][52] Question: Timing of tariff benefits - Management anticipates seeing benefits from tariffs in the second half of 2025, contingent on demand recovery and inventory adjustments [56][58] Question: Specialty Black business inventory trends - Management noted that while there has been some cautious behavior from distributors, demand remains choppy rather than clear [61][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a challenging start to the year, with Q1 results not indicative of stronger underlying performance, masking at least $10 million of greater earnings power [7][8] - Overall plant operations have improved sequentially, contributing favorably moving forward [9] - Free cash flow guidance for the year has been reaffirmed despite lower EBITDA guidance [30][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rubber segment volumes improved by 2.5% year over year and 13% sequentially, benefiting from contractual mandates and operational improvements in China [33] - Specialty segment volumes improved 3% sequentially but declined 2% year over year, with demand characterized as choppy [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. tire production was down low double-digit percentages in the first two months of the quarter, remaining dramatically below pre-COVID levels [10] - The company expects a demand inflection starting in the second half of 2025 as tire imports are anticipated to slow [16][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is taking protective measures to manage costs and bolster free cash flow in light of potential economic recession [7] - The ongoing shift in global trade policies is expected to benefit the carbon black industry and the company specifically [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the increased likelihood of an economic recession but does not see a pronounced weakening in order books at this time [7] - The company is optimistic about the structural benefits from the changing trade paradigm, which should positively affect demand for manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe [14][41] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its 2025 CapEx spending expectations by $10 million, down to $150 million [30] - The company has initiated programs to improve cash flow conversion, expecting working capital to be a source of cash in 2025 [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of outages in Q1 - Management indicated that the $13 million impact from outages was primarily contained in Q1, with some costs related to fixed cost absorption and timing [46][48] Question: Expectations for Q2 earnings - Management expects a step-up in earnings in Q2, despite a negative inventory adjustment due to lower oil prices [50][54] Question: Timing of tariff benefits - Management anticipates seeing benefits from tariffs in the second half of 2025, as tire companies are expected to shift capacity to the U.S. [61][66] Question: Specialty Black business inventory drawdown - Management noted that while there is some cautiousness from distributors, demand remains choppy, with no clear trends yet [66]

隔夜凌晨2点，美联储议息会议，如市场预期板，选择了按兵不动。此时的美股波动不大，毕竟大家已经消化了5月份美联储不降息的预期，但是随后鲍威 尔的讲话，让市场感到一丝不安。 在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔说了22次"wait"，啥意思？就是在川普的关税战情况下，其实鲍威尔也不知道未来美国的通胀会不会升高，升多高，万一6月份 大家没有谈拢真的将关税加这么高，会不会造成更严重的失业，甚至引发经济衰退，谁也说不准。 这就是为什么，川普炮轰鲍威尔，让其降息，甚至一度威胁要解雇他，鲍威尔都非常强硬的姿态回应。因为美联储工作的核心就是维护通胀和失业率稳 定。鲍威尔需要留下足够的"子弹（降息空间）"去应对未来可能发生的危机，就算迟一点应对也不愿意，提前降息可能会提前诱发危机诞生。 懂了吧，鲍威尔此时和你我一般无二，在川普面前，都需要走一步看一步。 大早上，川普发推表示在上午十点（北京时间今晚十点）公布一个大消息。目前媒体猜测，可能是会发布与其他国家关税谈判相关消息。目前，最有可能 得是英美之间会达成相应协议。 所以，黄金今天下午急速跳水，市场的避险情绪进一步减弱。在明天我们与老美在瑞士之间展开会谈，A股今天则进一步的走强。 来看一下深 ...

智通财经APP获悉，重返白宫的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国已与重要贸易合作伙伴英国达成他口中所谓 的"全面贸易协议"，这是双方数周谈判的成果，也标志着他向全球各国承诺达成贸易协议的首份重要谈判成果， 有可能将给美国与包括中国在内的全球重要经济体贸易谈判带来积极信号。然而，该协议可能并不是市场极其期 待的"全面的自由贸易协定"。 然而，有分析师在特朗普发表达成贸易协议的推文后表示，该协议可能具有局限性，即仅列出一般性条款并侧重 于特定领域，而非全面的自由贸易协定。该协议被视为英国首相基尔·斯塔默上任后的重要胜利，他采取了与特 朗普外交协商贸易的方式，并可能有助于提升英国经济前景，但其条款仍有待公布。 据了解，特朗普在其社交媒体平台上发文称，周四将是两国的"激动人心的一天"，白宫将于华盛顿时间上午10点 举行新闻发布会公布一部分细节。 据美国有线电视新闻网 (CNN) 援引美国和英国匿名政府官员的话报道，该协议将在很大程度上依赖于未来的进 出口贸易承诺，并保留特朗普对大多数国家征收的现有10%基准关税。 特朗普政府已经决定对中国(美国前三大贸易伙伴之一)征收高达145%的惊人关税，并且在90天内暂时豁免对于大 ...

美国高筑关税壁垒正引发多重经济危机。美联储理事24日警告称，美国总统特朗普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升，不排除采取降息 措施应对。与此同时，物价上涨令美国民众债务压力加剧。在历经数周的虚张声势和不断升级局势后，美国总统特朗普似乎有点"扛不住了"， 他承认，对华征收145%的关税是"不可持续的"。而他的一系列动作，在《纽约时报》看来，则被嘲笑为一次又一次的"胆小鬼眨眼"。一些特 朗普政府官员私下表述称，他们承认未能准确预测中方反应，鉴于中国对美国的出口规模巨大，特朗普似乎原以为中国会是首批"请求（关 税）豁免"的国家之一。 特朗普（资料图） 皇家伦敦资产（Royal London Asset Management）高级经济学家梅勒妮·贝克（Melanie Baker）在研究报告中表示，仍预计美联储将于2025年实 施两次降息，但降息时间不会早于下半年。 她指出："我们预计美联储会等到下半年再开启降息。"届时经济将出现更明确的放缓迹象。当前衰退风险已有所上升，全球及美国国内增长前 景已然恶化。不过，鉴于互征关税的暂停以及美国总统特朗普对市场压力作出回应的迹象，贝克目前仍属于"经济放缓"阵营，而非"经济衰 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a 96.9% probability of maintaining current rates, indicating that the market has already priced in the expectation of no change [3] - The real focus lies in Fed Chair Powell's communication style; a hawkish tone could pressure the stock market, while a more dovish signal might boost market confidence [3] - Domestic consumption data from the recent May Day holiday shows 314 million travelers generating 180.27 billion yuan in spending, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 8.0%, which exceeds expectations and signals strong domestic demand [6] Group 2 - Political dynamics in the U.S. are creating uncertainty, as Pence's criticism of Trump highlights the deep divisions within American politics, which could lead to volatility in capital markets [8] - Concerns are rising in the domestic futures market, with reports suggesting that retail investors' positions are being closely monitored, indicating a level of anxiety among market participants [9] - A three-dimensional observation framework is suggested, focusing on the Fed's decision-making paths, the sustainability of domestic consumption recovery, and the tension between technical market adjustments and favorable policies [11] Group 3 - The interplay between the consumption surge during the May Day holiday and potential policy support may indicate resilience in the Chinese economy, suggesting a possible new breakthrough [13] - Maintaining independent thinking amidst information overload is emphasized as a crucial strategy for market participants to navigate through economic cycles [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current market uncertainty is primarily driven by economic weakness and rising long-term interest rates, alongside increasing unemployment and abnormal yield curve changes [1][2][4]. Economic Indicators - Unemployment rates are rising and are above both the 36-month and 12-month moving averages, which typically indicate a recession [2][4]. - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are increasing despite economic weakness, with daily interest payments on debt reaching $4 billion [2][11]. - The yield curve, specifically the 2-year to 10-year spread, has been inverted for a long time but has recently turned positive, which usually signals economic issues [4][10]. Investment Insights - Investors are favoring more liquid assets over long-term bonds, anticipating a steepening yield curve [5][11]. - The demand for gold is increasing due to concerns over geopolitical instability, tariffs, and existing massive debt, positioning gold as a true monetary asset [6][12]. - Gundlach predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000, indicating a long-term bullish trend [7][8][12]. Market Predictions - The S&P 500 index is expected to have significant downside potential, with a support level projected around 4,600 points [3][8][13]. - The spread between low-quality junk bonds (CCC-rated) and higher-rated bonds (BB-rated) has widened significantly, exceeding the 200-day moving average, which is a negative signal for the market [4][11].

Group 1 - PIMCO warns that the likelihood of a recession is at its highest in years, emphasizing the potential underestimation of the Trump administration's commitment to high tariffs [1][2] - The current 10% tariffs and specific tariffs on industries such as automotive, steel, and aluminum have negatively impacted the U.S. stock market and certain corporate bonds [2] - Ivascyn believes that investors mistakenly think tariffs will be fully lifted or softened, indicating uncertainty about returning to pre-April 2 conditions [2] Group 2 - PIMCO adopts a cautious investment strategy in the corporate debt market, citing bubbles and excessive optimism [3] - The company favors high-quality investments, particularly in the mortgage market, due to strong household balance sheets [3] - Despite increasing investments in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly short-term debt, PIMCO acknowledges the attractiveness of sovereign bonds in other markets due to U.S. market volatility and deteriorating fiscal conditions [3] Group 3 - Ivascyn highlights the potential for stagflation risks due to tariff policies, which could lead to rising prices amid economic slowdown [3][4] - The company suggests that diversifying investments into other high-quality markets globally is a prudent strategy in the current environment [3]

Group 1 - The US job market shows strong data, but consumer confidence has dropped to a five-year low, indicating a disconnect between hard data and soft indicators [1][3] - US consumer spending accounts for over 70% of the economy, yet the confidence index has plummeted, reflecting cracks in consumer and business confidence [3] - Barclays predicts a mild recession in the US and Europe, but notes that this is not a foregone conclusion if trade agreements are expedited or fiscal stimulus is timely [3] Group 2 - Commodity markets are signaling warnings, with oil prices down 16% this year due to weak demand, and copper prices struggling to recover from April lows [3][4] - The expectation of a 60 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank has been priced in, while the Federal Reserve's expected cut of 115 basis points by mid-2026 has been reduced, yet traders remain optimistic about central bank support [4] - Despite stock market rebounds, corporate earnings warnings are emerging, with companies like Electrolux lowering forecasts and others like Volvo and General Motors withdrawing annual targets [4]