特朗普（资料图） 据环球网报道，针对美国方面多次表示已经和中方就关税问题进行对话，中国驻美国大使馆当天以发言 人答记者问的形式作出回应称，有关言论纯属混淆视听，"据我了解，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行 磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"中国人民大学国际关系学院教授表示，美国频繁释放中美关税谈判 的虚假消息，证明在第一回合的关税博弈中，美国实际上已不占上风。这说明中国坚定维护自身经济利 益，并与美国进行博弈的战略和政策是正确的。 特朗普目前正在与70多个国家进行关税谈判，通过释放"连中国都屈服"这个假消息，诱导其他国家赶快 屈服于美方提出的关税谈判条件，在一系列谈判当中取得主动权。 三是蒙骗国内的民众。根据最新的 报道，美国共有13个州通过法律途径抗议特朗普政府的关税政策，全美有50个州超60万人高举"住手"， 反对特朗普政府实施的关税措施、移民政策、削减公共开支等引发社会矛盾的举措。通过释放关税大战 已经缓和的信息，来缓解国内的抗议声浪，减轻自身压力。 美媒预计，一旦中国相信特朗普的"让步"并找美国沟通之后，他立刻会宣布"大胜"的消息。然后再对外 散播中国已经撑不下去了，主动来找美方沟通，借此提高价码。因为自始 ...

那么，究竟又发生了什么？分析人士认为，一方面，最近市场的反弹并不是因为基本面发生了改变，恰好相 反，是因为市场对关税谈判情绪的反应。而事实上，随着关税水平很难再回到从前，经济基本面中短期亦是如 此；另一方面，特朗普的不确定性依然在增加，今天他又授权加征电影关税。而从美日谈判来看，关税谈判的 难度极大。同时，特朗普亦称，可以接受美国经济"暂时陷入衰退"。特朗普认为，美国最终会表现得非常出 色。 全球资本市场风云变幻！ 突然之间，大部分的投资品都在跌。今天，亚太市场中国台湾股指大跌超1.2%收盘，澳大利亚股指亦结束连 涨，杀跌近1%。美国股指亦是全线杀跌，截至发稿，纳指期货跌幅近1%。国际油价更是大跳水，布伦特原油 7月期货周一早盘一度暴跌4%，跌至58.5美元/桶。虚拟货币也几乎是全线走弱。 石油暴跌 在OPEC+同意连续第二个月增产后，美国原油期货北京时间今天早上开盘暴跌逾4%。美国原油开盘后不久， 布伦特原油下跌2.49美元，至每桶55.8美元，跌幅达4.27%。全球基准布伦特原油下跌2.39美元，至每桶58.9美 元，跌幅达3.9%。今年油价已下跌逾20%。截至发稿，布伦特原油跌幅收窄至1.45%，WTI ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global stock markets continued to recover this week, with US stocks achieving a V-shaped reversal. The pricing duration of global risk assets is getting shorter, actively pricing in factors such as optimism about tariff negotiations, resilient non - farm employment data, and better - than - expected tech stock earnings reports. For A - shares, the market is supported by factors like the potential acceleration of Sino - US negotiations, clear technology industry trends, and capital support from the "national team". However, the performance of small - cap stocks is concerning. In Q1 2025, the profit growth rate of listed companies was 3.46%, slightly higher than expected, but the resilience was mainly in blue - chip stocks. The valuation levels of small - cap indices such as CSI 2000 and BeiZheng 50 have reached historical extremes, and the risk of potential return decline should be vigilant [2][11] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - week View**: Wait for the return of market liquidity. The performance of small - cap stocks is worrying, and attention should be paid to the risk of potential return decline due to high valuations [11] - **This - week Key Events**: - On April 28, the National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to stabilize employment and the economy, including supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, and expanding effective investment. It also planned to issue additional car purchase indicators for specific groups. The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade reported that nearly half of foreign - trade enterprises would reduce US business and 75.3% planned to expand emerging markets [11][13][14] - On April 29, the national leader emphasized that Shanghai should build a global - influence scientific and technological innovation high - ground. Three departments jointly issued a notice to clean up and rectify unreasonable regulations on market access barriers. China's service trade deficit in Q1 2025 decreased year - on - year [16][17][18] - On April 30, China's manufacturing PMI in April fell to 49. The foreign ministry stated that there was no Sino - US tariff negotiation. The national leader emphasized the importance of developing new - quality productivity in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [19][20][21] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Markets Weekly Overview**: From April 28 to May 2, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 2.97%, with emerging markets (+3.30%) > developed markets (+2.93%) > frontier markets (-0.11%). The Taiwan stock index led the world with a 9.62% increase, while the Saudi stock market performed the worst with a 2.03% decline [23] - **Chinese Stock Markets Weekly Overview**: From April 28 to May 2, in the Chinese equity market, Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks > A - shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.104 trillion yuan, a decrease of 42.8 billion yuan from last week. The A - share market showed a differentiated trend, with the BeiZheng 50 index rising 2.38% and large - cap blue - chip indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50 generally falling about 0.5% [26] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week. The information technology industry increased by 4.26%, while the energy industry increased by only 0.82%. In the Chinese market, the telecommunications service industry led with a 2.27% increase, and the real estate industry led the decline with a 3.03% decrease [30] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among China A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 9 industries rose (24 last week) and 21 industries fell (6 last week). The media industry led the rise with a 2.86% increase, and the comprehensive industry led the decline with a 3.48% decrease [31] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles**: The small - cap growth style was dominant this week [36] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: No specific data was provided in the text, only references to relevant charts [38][40] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - based Index Valuation**: The valuation levels of some broad - based indices such as CSI 2000, KeChuang 50, and BeiZheng 50 have reached historical extremes [43] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: The valuation levels of different primary industries vary, with some industries such as defense and military industry having extremely high PE ratios [44] - **Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [45][50] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - based Indices**: The expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted [51] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 100, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.21 [59] - **Trading - type Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 200 million yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance decreased by 150 million yuan [63] - **Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.1 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 200 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 400 million shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.7 billion shares [68][72] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - **Supply - side**: The tire operating rate declined [74] - **Consumption - side**: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices slightly recovered [94] - **Inflation Observation**: Agricultural product prices stabilized and rebounded [95]

越南总理：本周将举行首次美国关税谈判会议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has officially implemented a 25% tariff on key automotive parts as of May 3, following two rounds of negotiations with Japan, which has expressed strong concerns and demands for the removal of these tariffs [1][13]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Japan was the first country to initiate face-to-face tariff negotiations with the Trump administration, demonstrating a proactive approach [1]. - Despite claims of "significant progress" from the White House, Japan's response has been one of resistance, with no agreements reached in the first round of talks [5][3]. - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akira Amari, emphasized that Japan would not make major concessions in the negotiations and is not in a hurry to reach an agreement [1][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The automotive sector is critical for Japan, with exports to the U.S. accounting for nearly one-third of its total exports, making the 25% tariff particularly damaging [6]. - Japan's Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has raised concerns about the inconsistency of the current tariffs with a previous trade agreement made in 2019, where the U.S. had indicated no higher tariffs would be imposed [7]. Group 3: Future Negotiation Topics - The second round of negotiations is expected to address sensitive topics, including currency exchange rates, which have historically been contentious between the U.S. and Japan [10]. - Japan has made it clear that it will not yield on the issue of currency exchange rates, indicating a firm stance in upcoming discussions [10]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Media Response - Japanese media has been critical of the U.S. stance, with outlets like Nikkei Asia using terms like "boasting" to describe Trump's claims of progress in negotiations, reflecting a growing discontent [2][4]. - The shift in public sentiment in Japan indicates a reevaluation of its relationship with the U.S., as traditional allies begin to reassess their positions in light of current trade dynamics [17][18].

因此，对于石破茂来说，他需要在中美之间找到一个平衡点，为维持好对华以及对美的关系。如果这个平衡点找不好的话，很可能"竹篮打水一场空"。值得 注意的是，日本代表团在访华的同时，自民党政策调查会会长在华盛顿公开表示，现在一些亚洲国家可能会因为特朗普的关税政策疏远、背离美国。可以 说，这不仅是日本给美国的提醒，在一定程度上也是在呼应日方代表团对中国的访问活动。 对于日本首相石破茂的举动，他的目的可能有两个。一方面，就是讨好美国。在美国的对华战略中，菲律宾是东南亚反华的"支点"，越南是美国努力拉拢的 对象。目前，中菲关系因为南海问题变得越来越紧张，美菲肩并肩联合军演也在进行当中，而且，日本也参加了这次联合演习。所以，石破茂访问菲律宾， 除了表达对菲律宾的支持之外，大概率还会同美军方进行会晤，从而加强美日以及日菲的军事合作。这样的话，日本也是变相配合美国的战略安排。至于访 问越南，石破茂大概率是想要帮美国拉拢越南，因为前不久中方高层访问了越南，并同越方达成了一系列共识。在这样的情况下，石破茂访越，就是为美国 拉拢越南打前站。当石破茂做好了这两件事，讨好美国的同时，也会在接下来的关税谈判中能够请求美国高抬贵手，在关税方面 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing challenges in the US-Japan tariff negotiations, with both sides still having significant differences and no consensus in sight [1][2] - Japan's Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister, Akizawa, emphasized that without adjustments to tariffs on specific categories, including automobiles, an agreement cannot be reached [1][2] - The discussions also included cooperation in the semiconductor sector, reflecting the increasing importance of economic security and supply chain stability in light of China's growing technological capabilities [3] Group 2 - The second round of ministerial talks concluded with the US proposing a framework for an agreement focused on reciprocal tariffs, but showing reluctance to lower tariffs on specific categories such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum [3] - Japanese officials expressed disappointment over the US's stance on additional tariffs on auto parts, indicating a need for further progress in negotiations [2] - Preparations for a third round of ministerial talks are underway, with discussions on trade expansion, non-tariff measures, and economic security being prioritized [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the offshore RMB exchange rate, driven by positive sentiment regarding tariff negotiations between China and the U.S. [1][7] - On May 2, the offshore RMB rose over 350 points, surpassing the 7.25 mark, currently reported at 7.2414 [3][4]. - The Hang Seng Index increased by nearly 2%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 3% [4]. Group 2 - The FTSE China A50 futures index also saw an increase of over 1% [5]. - China's assessment of trade negotiations with the U.S. has boosted optimism about easing tariff tensions, with officials from both sides expressing a willingness to engage in talks [7]. - Global investor sentiment improved, with European stock markets generally rising about 1%, and U.S. stock index futures recovering all previous losses to turn positive [8].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q1 2025 financial results showed a net sales of $155.67 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $17.13 billion, reflecting a 64% growth [1] Financial Performance - Net sales reached $155.67 billion, with a 9% year-over-year growth, and a 10% increase when excluding currency fluctuations [1] - Net profit was $17.13 billion, marking a 64% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Diluted earnings per share were $1.59, up from $0.98 in the same period last year, exceeding Wall Street analysts' expectations [1] Cloud Services and AI - The company has introduced more P5 GPU instances to support emerging AI workloads, with AI business revenue reaching several billion dollars and a triple-digit growth rate year-over-year [2] - The management anticipates that increased capacity will help meet customer demand and drive revenue growth [2] Supply Chain and Strategic Positioning - Supply chain issues are expected to improve over time, despite current congestion in certain components due to high demand [3] - The company is focused on maintaining low prices and a wide selection of products for customers, especially in light of potential changes in the global trade environment [3][4] Cost Management and Future Outlook - The company expects an increase in stock-based compensation costs in Q2, which will affect total costs [5] - Costs related to the Kuiper project (Amazon's satellite internet initiative) will be accounted for before commercialization, with plans to achieve commercialization later this year [5]

智通财经5月2日电，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正表示，国家安全问题与关税谈判不同，将尽量减少政治 不确定性加剧带来的市场负面影响，双方已决定由财长之间讨论外汇问题。 ...