股指早报 美 10 年期利率回到 4.5%附近，A 股震荡蓄势中 2025 年 5 月 20 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.20 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 4 月谘商会领先指标月率录得-1%，低于预期 0.9% 和前值-0.7%，数据指向美经济的降温。另外在上周末国际信用评级 机构穆迪将美国的信用评级下调后，美联储开始对此进行市场预期管 理，多位美联储官员密集发表讲话，美联储副主席杰斐逊表示将穆迪 调降美国评级作为制定政策的一般数据处理。美联储威廉姆斯表示目 前未见资金大规模撤离美国资产，货币政策处于良好位置。达拉斯联 储主席洛根表示美联储应考虑加强机制，以在市场出现压力时更有效 地防止货币市场利率飙升。在美联储密集发言淡化信用下调影响下， 市场焦虑情绪有所缓解，隔夜美元指数大幅下跌后反弹，最终收跌 0.62%，报 100.37；美债收益率短端和长端均大幅上涨后回落，最终 收涨；黄金收涨，美三大股指集体收微涨。原先美国巨额债务是灰犀 牛，目前被市场点名明后，市场的不确定和焦虑不会在短时间消退， 后续需对此进行跟踪，关注美国资产资金的流出状况。 国内盘面上看，周一公布 4 月经济数据，与高频数据指向一致， 4 ...

穆迪美国信用降级敲响警钟，美国面临要么减税缩水，要么加重关税的两难局面。 据追风交易台消息，美国银行在最新的报告中表示，市场对美债的担忧已持续一段时间，穆迪的此次降 级的时机也并非巧合，意在提醒美国政府关税收入将无法完全抵消拟减税成本。 尽管如此，但美银表示，美国或可能执意而行： 从我们的观点看，更可能的情况是我们仍将获得一个扩张性的税收方案，长期美债收益率应 该会继续反映对财政前景的担忧。 风险在于：当华盛顿认真对待美国财政问题时，关税可能是唯一能有效减少赤字的手段，而 另一轮大规模关税上调可能比不那么扩张的财政方案对经济造成更大伤害。 但除非出现突然变动，否则风险在于：当华盛顿认真对待美国财政问题时，关税可能是唯一 能有效减少赤字的手段。另一轮大规模关税上调可能比不那么扩张的财政方案对经济造成更 大伤害。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 近期，许多客户询问债券市场是否即将到达投资者对债务可持续性担忧爆发的临界点。穆迪 在周五晚间将美国评级从 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】日前，全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达利欧发出警告，即便穆迪最近下调美国主权信用评级，也 仅反映了美国国债风险的冰山一角，美债面临的真实风险比穆迪降级示警更为严重。 达利欧认为，穆迪等评级机构未充分考虑美国联邦政府可能通过印钱偿还债务的风险。若真如此，持债者将因美债的美元 投资回报贬值而蒙受损失，且这一损失可能远超预期。美东时间5月19日周一，达利欧在社交媒体发帖指出，信用评级低估 了信用风险，其仅评估政府不偿还债务的风险，却未涵盖负债国通过印钱还债，导致债券持有人因货币贬值而受损的更大 风险。他暗示，即便美国政府不会技术性违约，投资者仍面临货币购买力被通胀侵蚀的实质性风险。 达利欧发表评论当天，美国股债汇市场出现"三杀"局面，但盘中跌势有所缓和，并未延续上周五盘后穆迪宣布降级后的持 续大跌态势。本周一，美股三大股指集体低开，盘初刷新日低，道指跌约317点、跌幅超0.7%，标普500指数跌1.05%，纳 指数跌逾1.4%，不过此后跌幅逐步收窄，道指转涨并保住涨势，一度涨187点、涨幅超0.4%，标普和纳指也曾小幅转涨。 美国国债价格周一盘中跌幅同样收窄，收益率盘中冲高回落，美国10年期基准国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's has led to a significant sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds, resulting in a sharp increase in bond yields [1] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - On September 19, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged, briefly exceeding 5% [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds also surpassed 4.5% during the same trading session [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Financial executive Max Gokhman indicated that the deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation makes the credit rating downgrade unsurprising [1] - Bloomberg analysis suggests that rising Treasury yields may heighten market concerns regarding the U.S. dollar [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen back to levels close to those seen in April [1] - Sentiment indicators among options traders have dropped to the most pessimistic levels in five years [1]

经济增长与通胀之间复杂且充满挑战的权衡关系，同样是高盛上调预测的重要依据。当前美国经济展现出一定韧性，制造业 PMI 数据虽在荣枯线附近波 动，但服务业持续扩张，就业市场依旧保持相对稳定，失业率维持在低位。然而，通胀问题并未得到彻底解决，尽管 CPI 同比增速有所回落，但核心通胀 仍处于高位，住房、医疗等刚性支出价格持续攀升。在这种情况下，美联储若过早降息，可能会引发通胀反弹;若维持现有利率水平或加息，则可能抑制经 济增长。这种两难困境使得市场对未来货币政策的不确定性增加，投资者对美债收益率的预期也随之提高。 从财政政策层面来看，更广泛的财政趋势也为美债收益率上调提供了支撑。美国政府近年来持续扩大财政支出，用于基础设施建设、社会福利等领域，财政 赤字不断扩大。为弥补财政缺口，美国财政部不得不大量发行国债，市场上美债的供给量大幅增加。根据美国财政部公布的数据，未来几年国债发行量预计 将持续上升。在需求端没有同步大幅增长的情况下，供大于求的局面使得美债价格承压，收益率自然上升。 基于上述多重因素，高盛对美债收益率预测做出了具体调整。在短期债券方面，将 2025 年底两年期美债收益率的预测值从原先的 3.30% 上 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to unilaterally impose new tariffs on certain countries due to the inability to negotiate with 150 nations simultaneously, as stated by President Trump [1] - The U.S.-China trade conflict has reached a temporary pause, but tariffs on China remain, indicating a complex negotiation landscape ahead [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary will inform trade partners about the new tariff rates, emphasizing the importance of maintaining trade relations with the U.S. [5] Group 2 - The European Union has responded strongly to U.S. tariffs by implementing countermeasures targeting approximately €210 billion worth of U.S. goods, with a focus on politically sensitive products [5] - India has taken a significant step by filing a complaint with the WTO against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, marking a notable shift in its trade strategy [7] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the evolving dynamics of global trade relationships, with countries like India and the EU adopting more assertive stances against U.S. policies [5][7]

Group 1 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 5% before retreating nearly 10 basis points, indicating a temporary impact from Moody's downgrade of the U.S. rating [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary will attend the G7 finance ministers meeting, raising hopes for increased market certainty [1] - Current market sentiment shows a high proportion of long positions in gold, silver, and oil [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a long position ratio of 52% compared to 48% short positions [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a long position ratio of 31% against 69% short positions [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a long position ratio of 19% versus 81% short positions [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a long position ratio of 51% compared to 49% short positions [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a long position ratio of 28% against 72% short positions [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a long position ratio of 17% versus 83% short positions [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a long position ratio of 36% against 64% short positions [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a long position ratio of 20% compared to 80% short positions [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 43% against 57% short positions [3] - The Euro/AUD pair reflects a long position ratio of 31% versus 69% short positions [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a long position ratio of 75% compared to 25% short positions [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a long position ratio of 43% against 57% short positions [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 49% compared to 51% short positions [3] - The USD/CAD pair reflects a long position ratio of 54% against 46% short positions [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a long position ratio of 88% compared to 12% short positions [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a long position ratio of 62% against 38% short positions [4] - The AUD/JPY pair shows a long position ratio of 32% compared to 68% short positions [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 33% against 67% short positions [4] - The NZD/USD pair reflects a long position ratio of 61% compared to 39% short positions [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows a long position ratio of 69% against 31% short positions [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a long position ratio of 81% compared to 19% short positions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, stated that there are currently no alternatives to U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank emphasizes the unique position of U.S. Treasury bonds in the global financial system [1] - The statement reflects ongoing concerns about the stability and reliability of other investment options compared to U.S. debt [1]

美联储洛根：美债和货币市场强劲，但并非坚不可摧。 ...

特朗普，终于被自己的关税政策折磨得没有耐心了，搬出了"一揽子"关税计划，开始着手彻底解决关税政策所带来的贸易体系混乱。 5月16日，特朗普宣布，在未来数周内，美国将重新设定贸易伙伴国家的关税税率，因为美国政府没有办法与所有国家都达成新的贸易协定。虽然特朗普的 口风依旧很硬，表示要单方面制定关税，但特朗普内阁其他高官的表态，却证明特朗普是被迫做出这一决定。 美国财长贝森特和商务部长卢特尼克表示，这些消息将很快传递给美国的贸易伙伴，这样做的本质是告诉这些贸易伙伴继续和美国做生意。 而要压低通胀，特朗普除了出台一揽子关税计划，别无他无法。一方面美国缺少必要的供应链，无法向美国社会提供足够的商品，就会造成物价上涨，变相 地抬高通胀；另一方面美国人工价格昂贵，相较于制造业大国，在规模和原材料上也缺乏优势，这就导致即便是美国能够提供相应的商品，商品价格也会高 居不下。双重因素加持下，美国商品只会越来越高。 也正是在这一背景下，特朗普急于和中方就贸易问题达成一致，这也直接推动了中美暂停关税措施，以加大对美国商品供给，降低通胀，从而推动美联储降 息。 但要说根本原因的话，其实还是中国起到的带头作用。特朗普发动关税战之前预估， ...