Core Viewpoint - The prolonged "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government has raised concerns among investors regarding the negative impact on the U.S. economic fundamentals, coinciding with a decline in the U.S. dollar index and an increase in international gold prices [1] Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached a record number of days, leading to heightened investor anxiety about the economic implications [1] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a decline on Wednesday, which contributed to the rise in gold prices [1] - As of the market close, the December gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $3992.9 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 0.82% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 100.16, while most non-US currencies appreciated against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The euro rose by 0.09% against the dollar, reaching 1.1493 [1] - The British pound increased by 0.24% to 1.3052 against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.27% to 0.6506 against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened by 0.29% against the dollar, with a rate of 154.1220 [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a slight increase of 0.04% to 1.4108 against the dollar [1] - The Swiss franc declined by 0.05% against the dollar, with a rate of 0.8102 [1]

来源：中国金融信息网 因美国政府"停摆"导致官方数据延迟，ADP就业报告成为焦点。数据显示，美国10月ADP就业人数新增 4.2万人，预期2.8万人，前值由-3.2万人修正至-2.9万人。 目前美联储政策制定者面临劳动力市场担忧与通胀风险上升的两难局面，若在ADP数据之后的系列数据 继续有助于缓解就业担忧，将支持美元走强。 ADP报告显示，就业增长从此前两个月的疲软状态中反弹，但反弹的范围并不广泛。教育和医疗保健、 贸易、运输和公用事业引领了增长。在专业商业服务、信息、休闲和酒店业，雇主连续第三个月裁员。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson称，自去年7月以来，私人雇主在10月首次增加了就业岗位，但与今 年早些时候的报告相比，招聘人数并不多。与此同时，一年多来，薪酬增长基本持平，表明供需变化是 平衡的。 编辑：王晓伟 数据公布后，美元小幅上涨。推动美元指数上行的动力源于美联储政策前景的谨慎转向。上周美联储主 席鲍威尔明确指出，12月再次降息的可能性远未确定，且强调在官方数据发布恢复前，政策制定者需维 持"观望"态度。超预期的ADP就业报告继续支撑投资者对年内再次降息的预期降温。 当前美元指数的波动 ...

Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index recently rebounded above 100 after being weak for six months, starting from a low of 96.6 in mid-September[2][5] - The rebound was influenced by political uncertainty in France and the hawkish stance of the FOMC in October, marking a significant turning point for the dollar index[2][5] - The current rise in the dollar index is expected to be short-lived due to anticipated economic data deterioration in the U.S. and a return to rate cut expectations[2][7] Group 2: Economic Factors - The remaining upward pressure on the dollar is primarily driven by political chaos in non-U.S. developed economies, while downward pressure stems from economic weakness in the U.S.[2][17] - The U.S. government shutdown has created significant downward pressure on the economy, complicating the outlook for economic fundamentals[7][19] - The expectation of further rate cuts is being priced in, with a total of 75 basis points (bp) anticipated for the year, including already realized cuts[6] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Increased policy uncertainty under Trump could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[19] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may exceed expectations, potentially leading to synchronized global easing and reduced long-term interest rate pressures[19] - The potential for manufacturing to return to the U.S. due to technological breakthroughs could significantly lower production costs and increase credit demand[19]

Group 1: Macro News - The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, approaching a record of 35 days [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 70.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 29.9% [2] - The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by January is 55.8%, with a 19.3% chance of no change and a 24.8% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - There is significant internal disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential rate cut in December [3] - The ongoing government shutdown is hindering the assessment of the U.S. macroeconomic situation due to the lack of key economic data [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have been adjusted, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar index, which has pressured precious metal prices [3] - The precious metals market currently lacks significant bullish factors, but there is some buying support during price pullbacks, indicating potential long-term buying interest [3]

美国政府延续停摆状态，重要的经济数据缺失，将导致美联储在后续货币政策的决策上更加谨慎，市场对美联储在12月降息预 期有所降温。 黄金方面： 据白宫官网，美国联邦政府停摆已经进入第36天，打破了2018年年底至2019年年初停摆35天的历史纪录，成为美国持续时间最 长的政府停摆。美国政府停摆将不利于改善美国的就业市场，虽然美国停摆期间非农就业人口数据没有公布，但是市场预期美 国就业市场难言乐观。 技术面：日线上，近期连续3个交易日行情冲高回落且收下影线较长影线，显示短期行情偏弱势。指标上看，行情仍然处于20日 均线上方运行，暗示下方有一定的支撑，短期不宜过分看空。日内关注上方62美元一线压力，下方关注59.50美元一线支撑。 美元指数： 美国政府停摆时间已经创造了历史，众多的重要数据缺失，极有可能导致美联储在货币政策方面更加谨慎。这也导致美联储官 员对于后续的货币政策分歧更加明显。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，美联储12月份降息预期降温以及避险情绪的降温将在短期令金价承压。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情自高位回落且收阴线，显示短期行情偏弱势。4小时线上，行情跌破20日均线，短期空头占 优势。日内关 ...

美国政府停摆已持续35天，劳工部月度就业报告周五铁定缺席，投资者只能将希望寄托于周三出炉的 ADP全国就业报告。若10月ADP数据大幅不及预期（市场共识约+2.5万），将坐实劳动力市场降温信 号，12月降息概率或瞬间回升至80%以上，金价有望借机反弹；反之，若数据超预期，美元将继续高歌 猛进，黄金恐再探3900美元整数关口。此外，财政部周三还将公布季度再融资计划，巨额发债若推高长 端收益率，黄金承压将雪上加霜。短期内，ADP报告将成为决定金价生死的关键节点——弱于预期则空 头回补，强于预期则空头继续碾压。但放眼长期，全球央行购金势头不减、中东地缘风险暗流涌动、通 胀粘性仍存，黄金作为终极避险资产的战略价值并未动摇。投资者不妨在3900美元附近埋伏低吸机会， 一旦避险情绪反转，多头反攻或一触即发。此外，投资者还需关注美国10月ISM非制造业PMI数据，市 场预期为50.8。另外，留意美国最高法院对特朗普"对等关税"合法性的审判。 政府停摆或创历史最长，数据真空放大不确定性美国政府停摆已持续一个月，本周可能成为有史以来最 长的一次，劳工统计局关键数据包括非农就业报告全部暂停发布。投资者只能转而盯紧周三ADP民间就 ...

Core Insights - The US Dollar Index has surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since early August, reaching a peak of 100.21, marking a three-month high [1] - The internal policy divergence within the Federal Reserve is identified as a direct catalyst for the short-term rebound of the dollar [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly decreased from 94% to 69%, which has quickly driven the dollar's recovery [1] Group 1 - The US government shutdown has entered its 35th day, tying the record for the longest shutdown in US history [1] - Despite being seen as a potential negative for the dollar, the shutdown has temporarily reinforced the dollar's safe-haven status [1] - The risks associated with the shutdown are primarily related to internal fiscal execution rather than external repayment capabilities [1] Group 2 - The dollar is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term, although its upward movement may be limited [1] - If the government shutdown continues, the decision-making process for the Federal Reserve may become more challenging, leading the market to reassess the sustainability of dollar policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,038.63 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 3.15 tons from the previous trading day, coinciding with a significant drop in spot gold prices [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 4, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 1,038.63 tons, down by 3.15 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decline in gold ETF holdings occurred alongside a notable drop in spot gold prices, which fell to a low of $3,929.14 per ounce, marking the lowest level since October 30 [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - On November 4, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, closing at $3,931.78 per ounce, down $69.38 or 1.73% [5]. - The overall market sentiment was affected by a decline in global stock markets and risk assets, leading to a downward trend in commodities such as gold, silver, and oil [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar and rising bond yields have contributed to the pressure on gold prices, with expectations for a December rate cut diminishing [6]. - Economic uncertainty stemming from the potential government shutdown has provided some support for gold prices, as Congress remains deadlocked over funding proposals [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Recent weeks have seen key technical levels breached, particularly the psychological $4,000 mark, triggering technical selling and long liquidation [6]. - The technical outlook for gold indicates an increased risk of correction, with daily momentum indicators showing a downward trend and a weakening bullish sentiment [6][7]. - Short-term support for gold is identified in the $3,910-$3,900 range, with potential challenges to $3,850 and even $3,800 if further declines occur [7].

| 工G国留留信 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 色金属数据目报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | 国贸期货研究员 | 方言詞 | 2025/11/05 | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | | | | | | | 价格指标 | 变化（%） | 变化 (%) | 15:00期货价格 | 现货价格 | 图表 | 10872. 5 | -0. 3 | -0. 27 | 10855. 5 | 铜 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | | | 0.8 | 锌 | 3190 | 0. 63 | 3090 | 1500000 | LME | 品 | -0. 25 | 1995 | 2893 ...