商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 铜：外强内弱，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 96,100 伦铜3M电子盘 12,133 | 2.31% 0.65% | 95020 - | -1.12% - | | 较前日变动 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 558,648 | 297,908 | 658,927 | 23,257 | | 伦铜3M电子盘 18,195 | | -8,111 | 340,000 | 2,248 | | 昨日期货库存 | | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | 沪铜 52,222 | | 2,679 | - | - | | 伦铜 157,025 | | -1,550 | 29.63% | -1.19% | | LME铜升贴水 | | 昨日价差 13.16 | 前日价差 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-25） 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 | | | | 求整体偏弱，库存压力高，关注宏观以及产线冷修情况能 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 否给市场带来契机。 | | | 上证 50 | 震荡 | 股指期货/期权：上一交易日，沪深 300 股指收录 0.29%， | | | | | 上证 50 股指收录-0.08%，中证 500 股指收录 1.31%，中 | | | 沪深 300 | 震荡 | 证 1000 股指收录 1.54%。化纤行业、航天军工板块呈现 | | | | | 资金净流入，保险、煤炭板块呈现资金净流出。央行货币 | | | | | 政策委员会召开第四季度例会，研究下阶段货币政策主要 | | | 中证 500 | 反弹 | 思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用 | | | | | 多种工具，加强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势 | | | | | 和金融市场运行情 ...

对于下阶段货币政策主要思路，会议认为，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节 力度，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长 和物价合理回升。"这与中央经济工作会议确定的货币政策基调保持高度一致，显示2026年货币政策会 延续支持性立场，在稳增长方向进一步发力。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青如是分析。 会议认为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节， 综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济稳中向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。 "2025年，适度宽松的货币政策加大了对实体经济的金融支持力度。"中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平 在接受《金融时报》记者采访时谈到，一方面灵活运用公开市场操作和降准保持银行体系流动性充裕， 支持商业银行向企业和居民增加投放信贷，加强对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融服务。1-11月 共投放信贷15.4万亿元，增速为6.4%。另一方面，运用结构性工具，积极推动和支持金融机构做好金 融"五篇大文章"。加力支持高水平科技自立自强和科技强国建设，提高对经济社会发展全面绿色转型和 美丽 ...

固收｜降准降息，何谓"灵活高效"？20251224 摘要 中国货币政策强调适时、适度和有效性，央行操作灵活，可根据经济环 境调整利率，理论上操作机会远超美联储，需关注宏观环境和政策时机 以确保操作效果。 中国主要有政策利率（7 天逆回购利率，目前 1.4%）、基准利率、存款 利率和贷款利率四种类型，分别在调控市场流动性、金融产品定价、影 响居民储蓄和企业融资等方面发挥作用。 评估降息效果可观察股指表现，其被视为宏观经济晴雨表。过去央行在 关键节点调控，如美联储降息和中美贸易谈判前夕，股市均出现明显反 弹，表明股指是直观评估指标。 2026 年 3 月中国两会将提出"十五五"规划纲要，政策落地有望通过 降息提振股市。春节后资金流向影响市场，提振风险偏好有助于资金从 虚拟经济转向实体经济。 2025-2026 年不应过度期待多次大幅度降息，重点是改变债务结构而 非单纯降低融资成本，通过政府加杠杆来优化融资结构，多次大幅度降 息并非必要。 Q&A 2025 年的中央经济工作会议提到灵活高效应用降准降息等多种政策工具，如 何理解这一点？展望 2026 年，宽货币节奏应如何看待？ 2025 年的中央经济工作会议强调了灵 ...

美元指数的持续弱势为英镑兑美元上涨提供了重要外部助力。近期美元指数因美联储政策分歧、降息预 期升温及经济数据隐忧等因素，持续徘徊于数月低位，12月24日更是创下两月新低，年内累计跌幅超 9%。作为美元指数的重要组成部分，英镑的走强与美元的走弱形成共振，美元抛压进一步放大了英镑 的上行空间，成为推动其突破1.35关口的关键推手。 技术面来看，英镑兑美元的上行势头得到强化。突破1.35关键阻力位后，该货币对的中期趋势由震荡转 向偏多，若能站稳1.35一线，后续有望进一步上探更高阻力位。不过需警惕短期风险：圣诞假期临近导 致全球外汇市场流动性下降，交投清淡可能放大价格波动；同时，若美国经济数据意外走强或美联储鹰 派表态升温，可能引发美元阶段性反弹，进而对英镑兑美元构成回调压力。 对于后续走势，市场焦点将集中于两大方向：一是英国的通胀数据(尤其是薪资与服务业通胀)及经济复 苏信号，这将直接影响英国央行的政策路径调整；二是美联储的货币政策动向与美国经济表现，其对美 元的影响将间接传导至英镑兑美元汇率。机构提醒，投资者需密切跟踪英、美两国央行官员的表态及核 心经济数据，在把握上涨趋势的同时，做好风险对冲准备。 通胀数据的 ...

展望未来走势，市场将重点关注两大核心维度：其一，欧元区通胀数据(尤其是核心通胀与薪资数据)及 经济复苏进程，这些指标将直接左右欧洲央行的政策调整节奏；其二，美联储的货币政策动向及美国经 济运行状况，其对美元走势的影响将间接作用于欧元兑美元汇率。机构提示，投资者需密切关注欧、美 两大央行官员的公开表态及核心经济数据发布，同时留意欧元区各成员国经济发展不均衡的风险，在把 握上行趋势的同时，做好相应的风险对冲安排。 2025年12月25日，欧元兑美元呈现强势震荡态势，当日汇率报收1.1780，小幅上扬0.0170%，盘中波动 区间为1.1772-1.1782。从近期走势观察，该货币对自12月初起便开启上行通道，12月24日盘中触及 1.1807的高位，距离年内峰值仅一步之遥，目前已成功站稳1.1780关键点位。截至当前，欧元兑美元本 年度累计涨幅已接近14%，在主要非美货币中表现突出。欧元之所以表现强势，核心原因在于欧洲央行 坚持利率稳定的审慎态度，再加上美元指数持续走弱带来的外部利好，短期上行趋势清晰可见。 美元指数的持续疲软为欧元兑美元的上涨提供了重要的外部支撑。作为美元指数中权重最高的货币(占 比达57.6% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the stock index market, although there is some uncertainty at the end of the year due to partial profit - taking by funds, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds are expected to fluctuate due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - selling [6]. - For precious metals, considering the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to be in a high - level shock, aluminum to fluctuate, and zinc to be cautious about price shocks [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [32][34]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be short - term operated, and crude oil can be observed in the short - term [51][54]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products such as hogs, eggs, and beans have different price trends and trading strategies [76][78][80]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25, 2025. Beijing has adjusted housing purchase restrictions, and multiple departments have urged e - commerce platforms to manage product quality. The Yanjiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Ningde is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [2]. - **Strategy**: End - of - year profit - taking by some funds brings uncertainty, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On December 24, multiple departments in Beijing optimized housing policies. The central bank conducted 26 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and silver rose 1.54%. US employment data exceeded expectations, suppressing precious metal prices in the short - term [8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic demand was weak [12]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level shock, with a reference operating range provided [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased. Trading was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with a reference operating range provided [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about price shocks caused by the departure of precious metal funds [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventory increased, and domestic lead supply tightened marginally [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the surplus pressure is large, the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to observe [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum, and demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, with reference operating ranges provided [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. The Yanjiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [23][24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or lightly buy options, with a reference operating range provided [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose. Ore prices were expected to decline, and inventory was accumulating [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term, with a reference operating range provided [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose. Indonesian nickel ore production targets were adjusted, and spot trading was light [27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Cost was firm, and supply was disrupted [28]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose slightly. Rebar supply and demand increased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and pay attention to policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments decreased, and steel mill inventory was at a low level [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose slightly. Glass demand was weak, and soda ash inventory was accumulating [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to short soda ash [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fluctuated slightly. Spot prices were stable [39]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the impact of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Industrial silicon supply decreased slightly, and polysilicon demand was weak [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to follow market fluctuations, and polysilicon prices are unstable [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears [48]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold a hedging position [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and refined oil inventories decreased [52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term and test OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fluctuated. Port inventory decreased, but future pressure remains [55]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. Demand improved, and supply is expected to decline seasonally [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. Supply and demand had different trends [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. Supply was strong, and demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply was high, and inventory was accumulating [64]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about the risk of price rebound due to increased maintenance [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply was under high - level maintenance, and demand was affected by the off - season [66]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: Para - xylene prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak [68]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. Supply was high, and demand was in the off - season [70]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Supply pressure was large, and demand was seasonally weak [72]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of 2026 [73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices rose. Supply was large, and demand was stable [75]. - **Strategy**: Keep a short - term shock view and pay attention to long - term support [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply was sufficient, and demand was average [77]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to long - term pressure [78]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean inventory was high, and bean meal inventory increased [79]. - **Strategy**: Bean meal is expected to fluctuate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil production and export data were mixed. Domestic oils and fats rebounded [81]. - **Strategy**: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. Imported sugar supply decreased, and international production data was mixed [85]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose. Xinjiang may reduce cotton planting area, and import data was mixed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long [89].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from promoting further declines in social financing costs to maintaining them at low levels, due to constraints from interest rate comparisons [1] - The PBOC's monetary control will transition from a dual approach of quantity and price control to a primary focus on price control, emphasizing the need for a smooth market interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [1] - The recent increase in the 10-year government bond yield to approximately 1.85% imposes constraints on further declines in social financing costs, which are influenced by the relationships between different risk interest rates, bank asset and liability rates, and yields on various asset types [1] Group 2 - The monetary policy outlook suggests that the first quarter will see a combination of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions, with a potential 50 basis points RRR cut expected to release around 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [2] - Structural interest rate cuts are anticipated to be more targeted, focusing on financing needs in key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and support for small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - A comprehensive interest rate cut is expected to be contingent on external and internal stability, with potential triggers including increased structural unemployment and risks in the real estate and financial markets, leading to an estimated total policy rate reduction of 10-20 basis points throughout the year [2]

早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期四 Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三国债期货主力合约多数小幅低开，全天横向窄幅 ...

原标题：央行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会提出 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款 维护资本市场稳定 中国人民银行12月24日消息，央行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会于12月18日召 开。会议提出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，更好发挥货币政策工 具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行总体平 稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战。要继续实施适度宽 松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货 币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加 强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度 ...