Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, following a similar cut in September, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is a growing internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some members supporting a more aggressive rate cut while others advocate for maintaining the current rate [1] - Economic indicators show a slight increase in unemployment but remain low, and the September CPI was more moderate than expected, suggesting a continued moderate expansion of economic activity [1] Group 2 - Following Powell's statements, traders reduced the probability of a rate cut in December from 90% to 71%, leading to a decline in major U.S. stock indices [4] - The Federal Reserve will officially end its quantitative tightening process in December, with the redemption principal of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested into short-term government bonds [4] - Powell indicated that additional tariffs could raise inflation by up to 0.4 percentage points, although the impact is expected to be temporary and will take time to affect consumers [4]

据央视新闻消息，当地时间10月29日，美联储宣布降息25个基点。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔当日在新 闻发布会上表示，美联储将继续根据最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡来确定适当的货币政 策立场。针对12月的政策走向，本次委员会会议的讨论中存在着截然不同的看法。12月是否进一步降息 远未成定局。 当前，美国联邦政府持续"停摆"导致多项官方经济数据发布推迟。美联储主席鲍威尔此前曾表示，美联 储有自己的联系人和数据来源，以监测美国经济健康状况。（央视记者 刘旭 刘骁骞） 编辑 陈艳婷 鲍威尔指出，美国政府"停摆"将"对经济活动造成影响"。此外，鲍威尔提到，很大一部分美国消费者仍 然对通货膨胀"感到非常不满"。 美联储再度降息25个基点 美国联邦储备委员会29日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降 息。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会发表声明说，现有指标显示，经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张，今 年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。 ...

鲍威尔在货币政策会议结束后举行的记者会上说，"联邦政府'停摆'将持续对经济活动构成压力"。不 过，"停摆"结束后这些影响"将会逆转"。 新华社华盛顿10月29日电（记者徐静 施春）美国联邦储备委员会29日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间 再次下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表示，美联储12月货币政策会议进一 步降息并非板上钉钉。 美联储委员会当天结束为期两天的货币政策会议。其决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说， 现有指标显示，美国经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自 年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个 基点。 声明说，联邦公开市场委员会在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间作进一步调整时，将仔细评估最新数据、 不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡。如果出现可能阻碍目标实现的风险，将随时酌情调整货币政策立 场。 这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。联邦公开市场委员 会12名委员中10人投票赞成降息25个基点，斯蒂芬·米兰倾向于降息50个基点，杰弗里·施 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on October 29 [1] - Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed will continue to adjust its monetary policy stance based on the latest data and evolving economic outlook [1] - There are differing opinions within the committee regarding the potential for further rate cuts in December, making it uncertain [1] - Powell noted that the U.S. government shutdown will have an impact on economic activity [1] - A significant portion of American consumers remain very dissatisfied with inflation [1]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut [3] - The Fed announced it will end its balance sheet reduction plan on December 1, with the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities to be reinvested in short-term Treasury bonds [5] - There is a notable division within the Fed regarding future monetary policy, with some members advocating for a more aggressive rate cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [5][6] Economic Indicators - The Fed acknowledged a lack of official economic data due to the federal government shutdown, complicating its understanding of the economic situation [5] - Current indicators suggest moderate economic expansion, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [5] - Inflation has risen slightly compared to earlier in the year, remaining above desired levels [5] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement and comments from Chairman Powell, major assets experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.16% and the Nasdaq rising by 0.55% [8] - Large tech stocks mostly saw gains, with Nvidia rising nearly 3% and achieving a market capitalization above $500 billion [10] - The dollar index increased, surpassing the 99 mark, while U.S. Treasury yields also saw upward movement [10]

未来政策路径的不确定性正在急剧上升。鲍威尔在会后表示，对于12月是否继续降息，委员会内部"存 在明显分歧"，并强调进一步降息"绝不是板上钉钉"，货币政策并不会沿既定轨道自动前进。 媒体在节目中与驻联储记者进行讨论时指出，此次降息已是今年第二次动作，而在今年7月之前，联储 内部的主流观点仍认为就业市场强劲、主要风险仍在通胀。但进入第三季度以来，企业招聘明显放缓， 与此同时通胀数据虽仍高于目标，却有逐步回落迹象。这为联储连续降息提供了政策窗口，也意味着政 策重心出现从"防通胀"向"稳就业"的微妙转向。 另一个影响决策的重要背景是美国政府持续停摆。尽管联储自身不依赖国会拨款，其政策判断大量依赖 由劳工统计局和经济分析局等政府机构提供的数据，而这些机构员工已被迫停工，导致关键经济指标发 布延迟甚至缺失。记者Amara Omeokwe指出，在缺乏官方数据的情况下，联储只能更多依赖私营部门 发布的消费者信心、工业活动、与就业相关的多数替代指标；然而，这些指标覆盖面与一致性均不及官 方统计，令政策制定存在"视野受限"的风险。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储周三宣布再度降息25个基点，这也是继9月会议首次降息25个基点之后的连 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling that it is nearing the end of its current rate-cutting cycle unless further economic shocks arise from trade conflicts with the U.S. [1][2] Economic Forecasts - The Bank of Canada has revised its economic growth forecasts downward, projecting a growth rate of 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, down from previous estimates of 1.8% for both years [4] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter due to U.S. tariff impacts, with concerns that the third quarter may also struggle to recover [4] - The central bank's forecasts indicate an annualized growth of 0.5% for the third quarter and 1% for the fourth quarter [4] Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of Canada acknowledges that trade conflicts have caused structural damage to the economy, limiting its supply capacity and increasing costs, which in turn restricts the effectiveness of monetary policy [4][5] - The central bank's current policy rate is deemed appropriate to keep inflation near 2% while aiding the economy during this structural adjustment period [5] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the rate cut and the indication that the easing cycle may be nearing its end, the Canadian dollar strengthened, reaching its highest level since October 1 [8] - Canadian government bond yields rose across the board, and expectations for further rate cuts in December decreased from over 30% to about 20% [8] Upcoming Economic Events - The timing of the Bank of Canada's rate decision coincides with the upcoming federal budget announcement by Prime Minister Carney, expected to focus on infrastructure and major projects to stimulate growth amid trade headwinds [10] - Market analysts suggest that while the central bank may hold rates steady at 2.25%, significant uncertainties remain, particularly with the anticipated acceleration of CUSMA negotiations next year [10]

尽管通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，但美联储仍宣布第二次降息。 尽管通胀率仍高于央行目标，但美联储周三宣布今年第二次降息，以支持劳动力市场。 美联储决策者投票决定将基准联邦基金利率下调25个基点，至3.75%至4%的新区间。此举是继9月份同等幅度的降息之后进行的，也 是今年以来的首次降息。 政策制定者一直在密切关注经济数据， 数据显示，近几个月来，由于企业努力应对贸易和移民政策的变化，劳动力市场增速放缓。 与此同时，随着关税相关价格上涨反映在政府数据中，通胀趋势持续走高。 这些趋势让美联储陷入两难境地，因为它既要实现稳定物价以达到 2% 的长期通胀目标，又要促进充分就业。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储将继续密切关注就业和通胀风险。 主席表示，9 月份消费者价格指数显示，商品价格上涨是由于关税相关的价格上涨所致，而住房服务价格上涨趋势呈下降趋势，非 住房服务价格近几个月来一直保持平稳。 他解释说："如果把所有这些因素加起来，剔除关税后的通胀率实际上与我们2%的目标相差不大。我们估计——当然，人们对这个 数字的估计各不相同——它可能在0.5到0.6个百分点之间，所以如果通胀率为2.8%，那么剔除关税后的核心 ...

Economic Outlook - The labor market is gradually cooling, and inflation remains elevated, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point [2] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth at 1.6% in the first half of the year, down from 2.4% the previous year [3] - Growth in economic activity may be firmer than expected, driven by stronger consumer spending, although business investment continues to expand and the housing sector remains weak [4] Labor Market - The unemployment rate has remained low, but job gains have significantly slowed, reflecting a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and participation [5][6] - Layoffs and hiring remain low, with perceptions of job availability and hiring difficulty declining, indicating a softer labor market [6] Inflation Trends - Inflation has eased from mid-2022 highs but remains elevated, with total PCE prices rising 2.8% over the past year, including core PCE prices [7] - Disinflation is continuing for services, while inflation expectations have increased due to tariffs, although long-term expectations align with the 2% inflation goal [8] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions are focused on promoting maximum employment and stable prices, with the target range for the federal funds rate lowered to 3.75% to 4% [9] - The impact of higher tariffs is contributing to increased prices in certain goods, leading to higher overall inflation [9] - There is a reasonable expectation that inflationary effects may be short-lived, but there is a risk that they could become persistent, which needs to be managed [10]

【导读】美联储降息25个基点 大家好，北京时间10月30日凌晨两点，美联储以10比2的投票结果，将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，为连续第二次会议降息，尽管 因政府停摆导致对经济的可见性不足，此举仍在市场预期之内。 除降息外，美联储宣布将于12月1日结束其缩减资产购买——即"量化紧缩"（QT）的进程。 一起关注一下这次降息有哪些重点内容。 理事米兰再次投下反对票，倾向于更快行动、一次性降息50个基点。圣路易斯联储主席施密德也投了反对票，但理由相反——他主张本次不 降息。 美联储力求在充分就业与物价稳定之间取得平衡。不过，近来官员表示就业面临的风险略高。 另外，美联储表示将自12月1日起停止缩减资产组合，结束始于2022年的进程。此后，美联储已抛减逾2万亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持 证券（MBS），使资产负债表降至不足6.6万亿美元，为2020年以来最低水平。 疫情后，为支持经济，在将基准利率降至接近零的同时，美联储进行了数万亿美元的资产购买。 以下是美联储的声明全文。 可获得的指标显示，经济活动一直以温和的步伐扩张。今年就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升但截至8月仍处于低位；更为近期的指标与上述情 ...