1月19日：黄金市场上周：国际黄金再度反弹走强收涨，延续前周多头动力，并刷新历史高点，虽有所 回撤获利了结，但多头仍占据优势，后市仍有望继续走强进一步刷新高点。 具体走势上，金价自周初高开至4516.02美元/盎司，先行录得当周低点4512.88美元，之后反弹走强拉 升，突破之前高点，之后多头动力减弱，并处于高位震荡，于周三录得当周高点4642.63美元，周五一 度回撤，收复当周大部分涨幅至4536.55美元，但最终触底回升，收于4594.07美元，相对于前周收盘价 4509.95美元，周振幅129.75美元，收涨84.12美元，涨幅1.865%。 影响上，周初受到地缘局势加剧，以及特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查的不确定性加深， 引发了市场对美联储独立性和美元长期前景的担忧。助力金价突破4600美元关口； 之后，虽然一度触及当周高点，但由于芝商所继续调整保证金的影响，加上获利了结。以及美国11月零 售销售和生产者物价指数（PPI）表现强劲，减弱了多头动力，再加上地缘局势缓和，近期稳健的美国 就业数据支撑了美元，并使市场对美联储进一步降息的预期推迟至6月。一度打压金价在周五跳水； 不过，因美联储官员鲍 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on goods from eight countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Finland, starting February 1, with a potential increase to 25% if these countries do not comply with U.S. demands regarding Greenland by June 1 [1] - This economic pressure indicates a shift in U.S. strategy, opting for economic measures over military action in the short term, reminiscent of historical economic sanctions and soft power tactics [1] - European ambassadors have been summoned to Brussels to discuss responses to the U.S. tariffs, including the potential delay of a significant U.S.-EU trade agreement that would involve $750 billion in energy purchases and $600 billion in investments [3] Group 2 - Canada has publicly supported Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland, with Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasizing Canada's readiness to defend Greenland as a NATO ally, highlighting the strategic importance of Greenland for Canada [5] - The geopolitical implications extend beyond the Atlantic, with Ukraine expressing concerns that increased U.S.-European tensions may lead Europe to seek closer ties with Russia, potentially at Ukraine's expense [7] - Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to meet with European leaders to advocate for continued support for Ukraine and to prevent any compromises with Russia that could undermine Ukrainian interests [7] Group 3 - On the battlefield, Russian military advances have accelerated, with reports of successful occupation of key locations in the Donbas region, indicating a strategic push towards breaking through critical defensive lines [9] - The capture of the M03 highway is crucial for Russian forces, as it would facilitate further advances towards key urban centers, potentially altering the dynamics of the conflict [9] - The ongoing military operations in the Donbas region are focused on establishing control over strategic high ground, which would pose a direct threat to several key locations in the area [9]

美国财政部长贝森特18日在美国全国广播公司（NBC）一档谈话节目中，为美国总统特朗普就格陵兰 岛问题对欧洲8国加征关税辩护。他声称，因为欧洲"软弱"，所以美国必须接管格陵兰岛。 近日，挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰宣布向丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛派兵，参加由丹麦在 该岛发起的"北极耐力"军事演习。特朗普17日宣布对上述欧洲8国加征关税，直到相关方就美国"全面、 彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 贝森特说，争取格陵兰岛是特朗普的"地缘政治决策"，特朗普"正在运用美国的经济实力避免热战爆 发"。他表示，美国必须掌控格陵兰岛，因为"美国是世界上最强大的国家，欧洲人表现出来的是软弱， 美国表现出来的是强大"。 （文章来源：新华社） 对于美欧之间因格陵兰岛问题产生的摩擦，贝森特认为，欧洲领导人最终会"接受"由美国控制格陵兰岛 的想法。"我相信欧洲人会明白，这对格陵兰岛、欧洲和美国都是最好的。"贝森特说。 格陵兰岛是世界第一大岛，也是丹麦自治领地，有高度自治权，国防和外交事务由丹麦政府掌管。特朗 普多次以所谓"国家安全"为由扬言要得到格陵兰岛。丹麦方面表示，格陵兰岛没有受到来自俄罗斯的影 响，俄罗斯在那里没有活动。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price drivers are limited, expected to range between 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with raw material prices providing support at the lower end and weak demand capping the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in Thailand [1]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the weekly supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is still high, and the self - driving force is limited. For styrene, it is driven by exports, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Strategically, be cautiously bearish on BZ2603, and look for opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread; also look for opportunities to short EB03 at high levels and shrink the EB processing fee [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: After a previous rise driven by macro - sentiment, it has fallen back. The spot price is basically flat, and the market sentiment is dull. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level and being adjusted. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and continue to fluctuate weakly. - Glass: After a continuous decline, it rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment. The spot price has increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory has decreased seasonally. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and maintain a weak - fluctuating trend [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are affected by Middle East geopolitics, but the supply - demand expectation is weak. The inventory of US crude oil and refined oil has increased significantly. The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [4]. Polyolefin Industry - The polyolefin market is supported by rising raw material costs, but the profit first expands and then compresses. The static supply and demand both decline, and the inventory is being reduced. PP is short - term strong due to reduced supply pressure from maintenance, while PE is under pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations. Overall, it is constrained by supply pressure and off - season demand, and the upward space may be limited [7]. LPG Industry - The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed. No clear overall view is provided in the report [9]. Polyester Industry - PX: High supply and weak demand are expected in the first quarter, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in the second quarter is expected to be tight, and the downside space is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken in January, with limited inventory accumulation in January but greater pressure in February. It mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - MEG: There is a significant expectation of inventory accumulation in the near - term, and the price is under pressure in January. - Short - fiber: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuations in the short term. - Polyester bottle - chips: The supply is expected to decline significantly in January, and the absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost fluctuations [11]. Methanol Industry - The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the MTO demand is weak, which limits the price rebound. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support for the 05 contract, but an upward trend requires substantial improvement in demand [14][15]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The spot price is weak, the supply is increasing slightly, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short term. - PVC: Affected by policies, the price fluctuates greatly. The fundamentals are under pressure, with stable supply growth, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation pressure, but the cost support is stable [16]. Urea Industry - The supply of urea is at a high level in the short term, and the demand is weak. However, there is an expectation of increased regional agricultural demand in the short term, and the inventory has decreased, which supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [17]. Summaries by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 15,700 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.32%. The whole - latex basis increased by 210 to - 135, with a daily increase of 60.87%. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 570 to - 82, with a daily decrease of 670.59%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 570 to 570, with a daily increase of 1036.36%. Fundamental Data - In November, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by - 9.39%, - 2.58%, and 2.20% respectively compared with the previous month. The production in China increased by 23.7 thousand tons. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in November increased by 3.96% compared with the previous month, and the tire export volume in December increased by 3.29% [1]. Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (March) increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.6%. WTI crude oil (February) increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.4%. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 7,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 4 to - 53, with a daily increase of - 7.0%. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows and Inventory - The cash flows of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.6 million tons, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 million tons [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of glass 2605 increased by 17 yuan/ton to 1,103 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 05 basis decreased by 17 to - 83, with a daily decrease of - 25.76%. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of soda ash 2605 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,192 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.09%. The 05 basis increased by 1 to 28, with a daily increase of 1.75%. Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 5.93% compared with January 9, and the weekly output increased by 8.11%. The glass factory inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.25% [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.58%. WTI crude oil increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 0.14 cents per gallon to 178.52 cents per gallon, with a daily increase of 0.08%. ICE Gasoil increased by $13 to $650.5 per ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of some refined oil products have changed, such as the US gasoline crack spread decreased by $0.19 to $15.54 per barrel, with a daily decrease of - 1.22% [4]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of L2605 decreased by 119 yuan/ton to 6,814 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.75%. The L59 spread decreased by 28 to - 28. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of East China PP拉丝 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.09%. The North China LL basis decreased by 10 to - 90, with a daily decrease of - 12.50%. Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory - The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 2.48%, and the operating rate of PP devices increased by 0.20%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons [7]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The price of the main PG2602 decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 4,202 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 2.12%. The PG02 - 03 spread increased by 5 to 65, with a daily increase of 8.33%. LPG Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.77%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 10.4 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Upstream and Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price of POY150/48 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 6,690 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.4%. The cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 78.0%. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of CFR China PX decreased by $2 to $879 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.2%. The PX - crude oil spread decreased by $2 to $411 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PTA, MEG - Related Prices and Inventory - The price of PTA East China spot decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 4,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.8%. The MEG port inventory increased by 7.7 million tons [11]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - The price of MA2605 decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 2,239 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.50%. The MA59 spread decreased by 10 to - 9, with a daily decrease of - 1000.00%. Methanol Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 10.19 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed, such as the downstream - outer - sourced MTO device operating rate decreased by 11.22% [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry PVC, Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 4,580 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.5%. The SH2605 price decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,213 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.4%. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged at $350 per ton. The export profit decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC increased by $20 to $630 per ton, with a daily increase of 3.3%. The export profit of FOB Tianjin Port calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 102.6 yuan/ton to 5.9 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 106.1%. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The operating rate of the caustic soda industry increased by 0.3%, and the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.3%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons [16]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,791 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.56%. The 05 - 09 contract spread decreased by 1 to 28, with a daily decrease of - 3.45%. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of urea in Shandong (small particles) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The Shandong basis increased by 20 to 20, with a daily increase of 11.70%. Supply and Demand - The daily output of domestic urea increased by 0.03 million tons to 19.98 million tons on January 14, with a daily increase of 0.17%. The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.61 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [17].

Market Overview - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year by 2025, with A-shares showing mixed performance today; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to 4114 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% [1] - The total market turnover reached 2.73 trillion yuan, a decrease of 324.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3500 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The State Grid announced that fixed asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, leading to a surge in the electric grid equipment sector, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit [2][6] - Precious metals stocks performed strongly, with Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Mining both hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold also seeing significant gains [4][5] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks surged, with Hainan Development hitting the daily limit and other stocks like Shen Nong Agriculture and Jinpan Technology also showing strong performance [8][9] - The commercial aerospace sector was active, with stocks like Oke Yi and Can Neng Electric hitting the daily limit, driven by successful tests of a manned spacecraft by Beijing Chuan Yue Technology [10][11] Notable Declines - The Kimi concept and AI corpus sectors saw declines, with stocks like People's Daily and Vision China hitting the daily limit down [2] - Communication equipment stocks faced significant losses, with Ruijie Networks dropping over 12% and other stocks like Cambridge Technology and Oriental Communication hitting the daily limit down [12][14] - Baogang Co. experienced a sharp decline of 5.2% following an explosion at its plate factory, resulting in casualties and production disruptions [15][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to transition to a volatile trend after reaching previous highs, with increased focus on earnings disclosures as January progresses. Companies with better-than-expected earnings or those that stabilize post-disclosure are likely to attract attention [18]

Group 1 - The oil and gas sector is experiencing heightened activity due to international geopolitical conflicts, with oil prices being supported by these tensions [3][4] - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iranian officials, which may impact Iran's oil production and exports, although the current export levels have not drastically declined [3][5] - The geopolitical uncertainty is expected to provide a favorable environment for oil prices in the long term [3] Group 2 - The OPEC+ has increased production by 2.21 million barrels per day for the year 2025, with a cautious increase expected in 2026, which may help improve the oil supply-demand balance [5][6] - The IEA has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 860,000 barrels per day, with chemical feedstock demand expected to dominate this growth [6] - The oil ETF (561360) is highlighted as a significant investment opportunity, covering the entire oil and gas industry chain and tracking the oil and gas industry index [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, with the oil and gas ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159309) showing a strong performance, gaining 1.72% and attracting over 6 million yuan in investment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159309) has seen most of its constituent stocks rise, with notable increases from companies such as Jereh Group and COSCO Shipping Energy, both exceeding 3% [3]. - As of 14:37, the top ten constituent stocks of the oil and gas ETF are listed, showcasing significant price changes and industry classifications [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions are highlighted as a potential risk for oil production and exports, particularly concerning Iran's average monthly oil production of 3.26 million barrels per day for 2025 [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support oil price stability in the long term, as indicated by the analysis from Guangda Securities [5]. Group 3: Investment Logic - Four key investment logic points are identified for the oil sector: 1. Geopolitical conflicts may boost oil prices, with the Russian geopolitical outlook being a core factor influencing supply expectations [5]. 2. The commodity cycle suggests that the oil sector is worth monitoring during the current economic conditions, with a potential super cycle for commodities [5]. 3. The supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, with historical low inventory levels and reduced capital expenditure in oil supply over the past decade [9]. 4. The oil sector offers high dividend advantages, with the oil and gas ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159309) showing a 12-month dividend yield of 3.83% and a payout ratio exceeding 50% for 2023-2024 [5][9]. Group 4: Long-term Value - The oil and gas sector is positioned as a long-term investment opportunity, with the ETF focusing on the oil and gas industry chain, highlighting its importance as a national pillar industry [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong but shows differentiation and rotation. Stronger varieties are undergoing adjustments, while weaker ones are making up for losses. The sector is supported by factors such as a loose monetary environment, AI technological development, increased attention to the critical mineral supply chain, resource nationalism in resource - rich countries, and geopolitical uncertainties. However, with the easing of the Iran situation and the US suspension of new tariffs on key minerals, leading varieties are experiencing some adjustments [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector remains strong under the influence of multiple factors. But due to the easing of the Iran situation and the US suspension of new tariffs on key minerals, the sector shows rotation. China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery, and the new energy vehicle and automobile export markets are expected to grow in 2026. Overseas data shows mixed economic signals in the US, with the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in April rising [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Consider gradually buying on dips. The short - term upper pressure range is 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Optionally, buy out - of - the - money long - term call options [3]. - **Zinc**: Hold long positions. The upper pressure is around 25,500 - 25,600 yuan/ton, and the short - term lower support is around 24,300 - 24,400 yuan/ton. Consider selling call options for hedging when the price surges [4]. - **Aluminum and Its Industrial Chain**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for aluminum. For alumina, consider shorting at high prices. For recycled aluminum alloy, adopt a bullish approach. Use out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - **Tin**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines or adopt a bullish approach before the capital enthusiasm fades. Pay attention to the mining end and macro - factors. The upper pressure range is 440,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to remain volatile. Consider selling both call and put options. The short - term lower support is around 17,000 - 17,200 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is around 17,600 - 17,800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, trade in the short - term with light positions. Use covered call options to protect long positions. For stainless steel, adopt a bullish approach on dips. The lower support for nickel is around 137,000 - 138,000 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is around 150,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton. The lower support for stainless steel is around 13,900 - 14,000 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is around 14,500 - 14,600 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 102,810 yuan/ton, down 1.26%; zinc at 25,090 yuan/ton, up 2.51%; aluminum at 24,375 yuan/ton, down 0.89%; alumina at 2,789 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; tin at 433,000 yuan/ton, up 4.80%; lead at 17,550 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; nickel at 146,750 yuan/ton, up 4.12%; stainless steel at 14,415 yuan/ton, up 3.52%; and cast aluminum alloy at 23,155 yuan/ton, down 0.96% [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for various varieties such as Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Tin, Platinum, etc. [22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - This part contains various charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price comparisons for copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][26][30]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report includes charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and price differences between different contracts for copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [51][53][55]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - It provides charts about non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest changes for copper, zinc, and aluminum [67][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the crude oil industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remains in a relatively loose pattern. However, short - term geopolitical situations are the main disturbances, and oil prices may still maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply (Medium - Long Term) - EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026, expecting 10,616 million barrels per day in 2025, a rise of 299 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] - In November, OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day from October; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.585 million barrels per day, an increase of 4.5 million barrels per day from October (OPEC data). IEA data showed that OPEC countries' production in November was 28.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 25 million barrels per day from October, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10 million barrels per day from October [3] 3.1.2 Demand (Medium - Long Term) - EIA raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The growth rate in 2025 is 1.14 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.09 million barrels per day compared to the November forecast [3] - OPEC kept its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, with a growth rate of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, the same as the November forecast [3] - IEA slightly raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The growth rate in 2025 is 0.83 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.042 million barrels per day compared to the November forecast [3] 3.1.3 Inventory (Short Term) - In the week ending January 9, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase, against an expected decrease of 1.702 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.832 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma were 0.745 million barrels, compared to 0.728 million barrels in the previous week [3] - In terms of refined oil products, gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected 3.565 million barrels, previous 7.702 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 0.029 million barrels (expected 0.512 million barrels, previous 5.594 million barrels), and heating oil inventories decreased by 0.745 million barrels (previous 0.672 million barrels) [3] 3.1.4 Producing Country Policies (Medium - Long Term) - OPEC+ reaffirmed in the January meeting to maintain stable production in the first quarter of 2026 and suspended the previously planned production increase measures. The meeting lasted about 10 minutes and did not cover the recent Venezuelan geopolitical event [3] - A U.S. government official said that the U.S. had completed the sale of the first batch of Venezuelan oil, with a transaction value of $500 million, and more oil would be sold in the coming days and weeks [3] 3.1.5 Geopolitics (Short Term) - Trump postponed the decision on whether to launch a military strike against Iran. Military options are still on the table, but the uncertainty has significantly increased. Advisors told Trump that if a large - scale strike is carried out, the U.S. needs to deploy more military forces in the Middle East [3] - On January 15, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on multiple Iranian individuals and entities and multiple foreign companies associated with Iran. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larryjani was included in the sanctions list [3] 3.1.6 Macro - finance (Short Term) - U.S. non - farm payroll data showed that overall inflation in December 2025 met expectations, and core inflation was slightly lower than expected. The year - on - year growth rate of the overall CPI was 2.7%, the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.3% as expected; the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 2.6% (expected 2.7%), and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.2% (expected 0.3%) [3] - The CME "FedWatch" tool showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 20.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 78.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 0.9% [3] 3.1.7 Investment View and Trading Strategy - Investment view: The oil price is expected to oscillate [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data 3.2.1 Market Review - This week, oil prices fluctuated widely, rising first and then falling, mainly trading around the U.S. military strike on Iran event. As Trump postponed the decision on whether to strike Iran, oil prices dropped from their highs. As of January 16, the closing price of the WTI crude oil main contract was $59.22 per barrel, a weekly increase of $0.44 per barrel (+0.75%); the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was $64.20 per barrel, a weekly increase of $1.12 per barrel (+1.87%); the closing price of the SC crude oil main contract was 438.8 yuan per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.1 yuan per barrel (+1.41%) [6] 3.2.2 Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads - Near - month spreads and internal - external spreads declined [9] 3.2.3 Crack Spreads - Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined, and jet fuel crack spreads also declined [27][38] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Production - In November 2025, global crude oil and related liquid production was 108.7 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.444 million barrels per day from October (EIA data) [62] - In November 2025, OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day from October; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.585 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.045 million barrels per day from October (OPEC data). IEA data showed that OPEC countries' production in November was 28.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 25 million barrels per day from October, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10 million barrels per day from October [3][62] - As of the week ending January 9, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.058 million barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.753 million barrels per day from the previous week; the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year [86] - As of the week ending January 16, the total number of active U.S. drilling rigs was 544, compared to 546 in the previous week [86] 3.3.2 Inventory - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels, and Cushing inventories increased by 0.745 million barrels [87] - Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [95] 3.3.3 Demand - In the U.S., implied gasoline and diesel demand increased, and refinery operating rates remained at a high level. Refinery operating rates rose 0.60% to 95.30%, and crude oil processing volume increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 17.3 million barrels per day. Gasoline implied demand was 9.133 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0264 million barrels per day; distillate implied demand was 5.5201 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.7972 million barrels per day [108][117] - In China, refinery capacity utilization rates slightly declined. In the third week of 2026 (January 9 - 15), the capacity utilization rate of China's independent refined oil refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 61.01%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decline from the previous week. The profit margin of refineries narrowed, and the operating loads of independent refineries in regions such as Shandong decreased [118][119] 3.3.4 Macro - finance - U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and the U.S. dollar index rebounded [142] 3.3.5 CFTC Positions - Speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil increased [152]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term supply in the Middle East is tight, the domestic PDH operation rate remains high, and the demand supports the market. The domestic port inventory is decreasing. Recently, the EIA C3 inventory has turned to decline, the domestic civil LPG price has risen, and with the increase in risk premium and contract price, the PG price still shows a wide - range volatile and upward trend [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy Product Price Monitoring - Various energy products have different price changes. For example, the current price of LPG is 4137 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.27%, a weekly decline of 1.99%, a monthly increase of 0.93%, and an annual decline of 8.03% [3]. 3.2 LPG Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commercial volume was about 518,700 tons (a 0.12% increase). Among them, the civil LPG commercial volume was 216,500 tons (a 0.14% decrease), the industrial LPG was 189,300 tons (a 0.11% decrease), and the ether - after C4 was 167,100 tons (a 0.12% decrease). The LPG arrival volume last week was 540,000 tons (a 2.08% increase). In Xinjiang, enterprise out - put increased, while in Shandong, some enterprises reduced device loads or used resources internally [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In winter, the heating demand remains, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, reaching a relatively high level. PDH devices are operating at a high load, but the device profit loss is intensifying. The propane purchase demand of port chemical enterprises is relatively rigid, but there are news of device reduction, and the expected operating rate will gradually decline, and the propane chemical demand will fall. MTBE profit is in loss, the overseas olefin blending oil demand slows down, the domestic export window closes, and most orders have been executed, which restricts the civil LPG price trend [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 156,700 tons (a 1.20% decrease), and the port inventory was 2,027,800 tons (a 4.89% decrease). The low - supply situation of refineries continues, the market trading atmosphere is mild, and the shipment of manufacturers in many places is smooth, so the storage capacity rate continues to decline. The port arrival volume has a slight increase but is still at a low level, the import resources are insufficiently replenished, and the inventory still shows a downward trend [4]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis is 288.80 yuan/ton in East China, 763.60 yuan/ton in South China, and 196.60 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume is 5977 lots, a decrease of 36 lots, and the lowest deliverable area is Shandong [4]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are [not fully provided in the text]. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are also [not fully provided in the text] [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio is [not fully provided in the text] (a 3.35% decrease), and the PG secondary - to - primary month spread is - 242 yuan/ton (a 26.04% increase). In the fourth quarter, the LPG price is firm, the crude oil shows a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread has a weakening trend [4]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 reached the fastest in the past three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed weak labor demand. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group have implemented a restructuring. Trump's remarks have led to repeated fermentations of risk events in the US - Venezuela, Middle East, and Russia - Ukraine regions, greatly increasing the volatility of crude oil prices and driving up the price fluctuations of oil - chemical products [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to PG2 - 3 positive arbitrage, PG3 - 4 reverse arbitrage, long SC and short PG, long PP and short PG [4].