Core Viewpoint - Silver is currently testing the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, maintaining short-term bullish hopes despite recent price pressures from a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements and Technical Analysis - Silver prices found support around $38.00 after a slight decline, rebounding to approximately $38.50 from a low of $38.08 [1]. - The recent pullback has brought silver back to the upper boundary of the triangle pattern, currently near the critical support area around $38.13 [3]. - A decisive break below the support level of $38.13 could invalidate the recent bullish breakout and shift short-term momentum in favor of bearish positions [3]. Group 2: Indicators and Market Sentiment - Momentum signals are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly recovering while the MACD remains below the signal line, indicating weakness [1]. - The RSI is hovering around 50, suggesting a lack of clear directional strength, while the MACD shows a decrease in bullish momentum with a bearish crossover [3]. - Future resistance levels are identified at $38.63 and $39.06, with a need for sustained breakthroughs to restore bullish momentum towards the next target of $39.53 [3]. Group 3: Market Context - The silver market is under pressure due to renewed demand for the dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which are impacting precious metals [1]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened following President Trump's announcement to dismiss Fed official Lisa Cook, contributing to market volatility [1].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月28日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价上行,布伦特10合约涨0.82%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降239.2万桶,汽油及 精炼油库存也录得下降，体现夏季用油高峰尾声需求仍有韧性。布伦特临近70美元/桶已基本定价俄 鸟和谈僵局相关供应风险的利多影响，在地缘风险进一步发酵前原油或转为震荡走势，关注旺季因 素支撑过后原油的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜美元波动剧烈，贵金属高位震荡。本周特朗普罢免美联储官员加剧美联储独立性担忧冲击美元 信用,被解雇理事库克将提起诉讼。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中继续测试上方关键阻力，中期维持 回调买入多头思路。今日关注美国二季度GDP修正值和周度初请失业金数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，市场对经济表现仍偏谨慎，同时等待美国PCE指标，且关注特朗普与美联储独立性间 的博弈，美元指数波动快。国内现铜79585元，精铜消费受多省梳理再生铜补贴政策减停而受益， 现需要时间等待国内废铜报价的博弈调整。今日关注社库，整数关胆力强,高位空单持有。 【铝】 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。供应过剩逐渐显现 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Overnight, the US dollar fluctuated sharply, and precious metals oscillated at high levels. Trump's dismissal of Fed officials this week intensified concerns about the Fed's independence and impacted the US dollar's credit. International gold and silver are in an oscillating trend, continuing to test the upper key resistance. The medium - term strategy maintains a long - buying approach on pullbacks. Attention should be paid to the revised value of the US Q2 GDP and weekly initial jobless claims data today [1] Other Summaries Fed - related - Biesent called for an internal review of the Fed and said it would surely know in the fall who Trump would choose as the Fed chair. Williams said the policy remains moderately tight, inflation is gradually falling, and every meeting is absolutely "real - time" [1] Tariff - related - The White House trade advisor said that if India stops buying Russian oil, it can get a 25% tariff discount. India hopes that the US will reconsider the decision to impose a 25% tariff on it. Biesent said many things India does are "performative." The EU plans to accelerate the legislative process before this weekend to fully cancel tariffs on US industrial products to meet Trump's requirements. Japanese Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa Ryosei visited the US again, urging the US to implement the auto tariff reduction agreement [2]

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 39,504 kilograms, with an increase of 2,001 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The opening price of gold futures on August 28 was 782.00 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 784.58 CNY and a low of 781.40 CNY, with a current price of 783.22 CNY, reflecting a 0.21% increase [1] - The trading volume for the day was 148,309 contracts, while the open interest decreased by 22,127 contracts to 144,469 contracts [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's third-ranking official indicated that interest rates could be adjusted at every policy meeting [1] - European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn stated that President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve's independence could have significant global impacts on financial markets and the real economy [1]

Gold - The independence of the Federal Reserve is threatened as President Trump attempts to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, leading to market concerns reflected in the selling of U.S. Treasuries and rising bond yields, particularly in the 30-year Treasury [1] - The risk of stagflation is increasing, with rising long-term bond yields expected to push inflation higher while slowing economic growth [1] - Recent events surrounding Trump's dismissal of a Fed official are unprecedented in U.S. history and are likely to weaken the Fed's independence, which could favor gold prices due to political turmoil and rising rate cut expectations [1] - Technically, gold rebounded from $3320, with potential upward movement towards $3409 or a downward test of support at $3350 if it breaks below $3384 [1] Oil - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 2.392 million barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 6.014 million barrels and an expectation of a 1.863 million barrel decrease, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - The end of the U.S. driving season and the reduction in oil inventories help alleviate concerns about oversupply [2] - The ongoing tariff battle between the U.S. and India is significant, with Trump raising tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, pressuring India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil [2] - Technically, oil prices rebounded from around $63, with a potential upward target of $65 if it breaks above $64.20, while a drop below $63 would lead to a focus on $61.80 support [2] U.S. Dollar Index - New York Fed President Williams indicated that risks are becoming balanced, suggesting potential actions in future Fed meetings, which may hint at rate cuts and increase the likelihood of a weaker dollar [3] - The dollar is influenced by two main factors: expectations of Fed rate cuts and threats to the Fed's independence, which could exacerbate market volatility [3] - Technically, the dollar has been experiencing significant short-term fluctuations, with a downward trend from around 100, currently oscillating between 97.50 and 98.80, indicating a higher probability of further declines [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a corrective phase since last week, finding support around 42120 and continuing its rebound [5] - The index faces resistance at 43200, and if it breaks this level, it may target the previous high of 43900, while support is noted at 42500 [5] Copper - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July, reversing previous gains, and have since maintained low-level fluctuations with weak rebound strength [6] - The resistance level at $4.50 is critical; failure to break above this could lead to a new round of declines [6] - Currently, copper is trading within a range of $4.32 to $4.50, suggesting a trading strategy of shorting at the high and going long at the low until a breakout occurs [6]

来源：滚动播报 欧洲央行管委雷恩：如果美联储的独立性受到破坏，通胀必然会上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing public disagreement between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding monetary policy has escalated, particularly with Trump's recent announcement to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which he claims is effective immediately [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve - Cook's response emphasizes that the President lacks the authority to unilaterally dismiss a Fed governor and plans to challenge this "illegal attempt" through legal means [3]. - Cook was appointed by Biden in 2022, with her term set to last until 2038, making this dismissal significant in terms of Fed governance [3]. - If Cook is ultimately removed, Trump could further influence the decision-making structure of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a majority of his appointees on the board [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The tensions between Trump and the Fed may increase selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries and contribute to a weaker dollar, although the dollar initially softened before recovering after Trump's announcement [3]. - The bond market showed mixed reactions, with short-term yields generally declining while long-term yields slightly increased, as evidenced by a 0.78 basis point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.261% and a 3.56 basis point rise in the 30-year yield to 4.920% [3]. - The stock market remained relatively stable, with all three major indices recording gains, partly due to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed, as Powell indicated that a weak labor market could alleviate inflationary pressures [3]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - While loose monetary policy may provide short-term support for the stock market, there are warnings that a loss of central bank independence could lead to turmoil in the bond market and increased overall financial uncertainty [4].

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook by President Trump is primarily due to allegations of falsification in mortgage application documents, raising concerns about integrity within the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. Group 1: Background and Context - The controversy began when William Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency appointed by Trump, questioned Cook's integrity regarding two mortgage applications where she allegedly misrepresented properties as "primary residences" [3]. - On August 20, Trump requested Cook's resignation based on these allegations, which she refused, leading to an investigation by the Department of Justice into her mortgage applications [3][5]. Group 2: Official Statements and Reactions - In his official letter, Trump emphasized the need for trust in officials responsible for monetary policy, citing Cook's alleged deceptive actions as a breach of public trust and integrity [4]. - Cook has publicly stated her intention to contest the allegations, asserting that she takes the inquiries about her financial history seriously and is gathering accurate information to respond to the claims [5]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve - The dismissal is seen as a significant adjustment within the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, potentially sparking discussions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the mechanisms for financial scrutiny of public officials [6]. - The sudden nature of the dismissal based on "suspected financial fraud" may have lasting implications for the direction of U.S. financial policy and the perception of the Federal Reserve's integrity [6].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the British pound is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with a preliminary target price of around 1.36 [2] - Recent economic data from the UK shows that the GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 0.1% [2] - The GBP/USD exchange rate is projected to reach 1.38 by the end of 2025, supported by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent fluctuations in the US dollar have impacted the short-term outlook for the British pound, which is expected to trade between 1.3433 and 1.363 [2] - The report maintains a neutral to positive outlook for the British pound in the second half of the year, benefiting from the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices have been fluctuating upwards, recently rebounding by $30 to break through the $3400 mark, but facing resistance and adjustments [1][6][12] - The market is currently in a rebound trend, with key support levels at $3384 and $3350, while resistance levels are at $3408 and $3438 [12][13] - The gold market has experienced four consecutive months of gains, but is now entering a period of consolidation, oscillating between $3300 and $3400 [12] Group 2 - Recent factors influencing gold prices include rising inflation expectations in the U.S., driven by tariff impacts and increased consumer confidence, alongside strong Japanese bond yields leading to a sell-off [13] - The upcoming U.S. unemployment claims data and second-quarter GDP figures are expected to significantly impact the labor market and economic outlook, which could influence Federal Reserve decisions [14] - The U.S. sovereign credit is facing unprecedented challenges, raising questions about the future of the dollar as a global reserve currency [15]