美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查一事继续发酵！ 当地时间1月12日，美联储主席鲍威尔"被调查"的消息，占据了美国各大媒体的显著位置。市场担忧， 此事将对美联储的独立性带来实质性冲击。 同日，包括美联储前主席、美国财政部前部长在内的多名美国前财经要员发表联合声明，批评特朗普政 府对鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 据彭博援引知情人士表示，在特朗普政府大幅升级对美联储的施压行动后，全球多家央行行长正在草拟 一份声明，以声援美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。这份联合声明预计将以国际清算银行（BIS）的名义发 布，并将对所有央行开放签署。该声明最早可能于当地时间周二发布。 有分析师警告，随着市场对美联储独立性及美联储抗通胀意愿的担忧加剧，投资者会要求更高的利率以 弥补本金受损的风险，从而导致债券收益率进一步上行。这将提高消费者的借贷成本，尤其是抵押贷款 利率。 联名批评 据央视新闻消息，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士12日发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对联邦储 备委员会主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 签署这一声明的包括多名美联储前主席、美国财政部前部长和白宫经济顾问委员会前主席。声明说，美 联储的独立性对美国经济表现至关重要，而对鲍威尔的刑事调查 ...

Group 1: Economic and Political Context - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to sue Powell, driven by immense election pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates ahead of the midterm elections[2] - High credit card and mortgage rates are limiting U.S. consumer spending, with polls indicating significant election pressure on the Trump administration[8] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The Trump administration's actions may counteract its goal of lowering medium- and long-term interest rates, as rate cuts could increase inflation risks and steepen the yield curve[2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, leading to decreased attractiveness of U.S. assets and downward pressure on the dollar index[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Increased expectations for interest rate cuts could benefit commodities like copper and aluminum, as well as emerging market equities[2] - The current U.S. real interest rate is approaching the natural rate, suggesting potential for significant economic growth if rates are cut, but also posing risks for re-inflation[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market adjusted on Tuesday after the regulatory authorities cooled down the market on Monday night. The short - term index may continue to oscillate and adjust. Investors are advised to focus on the structure rather than the index, wait for the volatility to decrease, and be aware of the possible disturbances from the annual report performance forecasts of listed companies near the end of January [5]. - Due to the further escalation of geopolitical situations, the safe - haven sentiment has risen. The macro funds may increase their allocation of long - term bonds for risk hedging. At present, when the valuation of long - term bonds is at a low level, it is not advisable to short. It is recommended to lightly try to go long on TL2603 in treasury bond futures [9]. - The precious metals sector showed obvious differentiation in the Asian market today. Silver continued to be strong, mainly driven by macro - level changes such as international geopolitical tensions and the challenge to the Fed's independence. In the short - term, it is difficult for the Powell case to have a major negative impact on gold and silver. Micro - level factors such as tight silver inventory also support the silver price [11][12]. - The shipping companies have lowered the spot freight rates, and the bullish sentiment in the container shipping index market has ebbed. The spot freight rate may reach an inflection point at the end of January if the cargo volume growth before the Spring Festival falls short of expectations. Spot enterprises are recommended to continue with hedging, and positive arbitrage opportunities between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be focused on [14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日要闻 - Since January 14, 2026, anti - dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imported solar - grade polysilicon originating from the United States and South Korea for a period of 5 years [2]. - On January 12, CME announced a change in the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts, from a fixed - amount margin to a percentage of the contract's notional value, effective after the close on January 13 [2]. - US President Trump announced that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US, and the US State Department asked US citizens to leave Iran immediately [3]. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell regarding a $2.5 - billion over - budget renovation project of the Fed's headquarters [3]. - Two Chinese - flagged super - large oil tankers that were originally heading to Venezuela to load crude oil for debt repayment have turned back [4]. - Japanese Prime Minister Hayasaka Sanae expressed her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives at the beginning of the parliamentary session on January 23 [4]. 3.2品种观点 3.2.1股指期货 - On Tuesday, the market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64%, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 3.651 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day. Among the underlying indexes of stock index futures, the CSI 300 fell 0.60%, the SSE 50 fell 0.34%, the CSI 500 fell 1.28%, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.84%. Among the current - month contracts of stock index futures, IF2601 fell 0.56% (basis 5.17 points), IH2601 fell 0.21% (basis 3.67 points), IC2601 fell 1.26% (basis 29.52 points), and IM2601 fell 1.92% (basis 30.67 points) [5]. - The petroleum and petrochemical, pharmaceutical and biological, and non - ferrous metal sectors led the gains, while the military industry, electronics, and communication sectors led the losses [5]. - Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has continued to rise. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets hit a record high for two consecutive days on January 12 and 13, the margin trading balance increased by 45.5 billion yuan on January 12, and the premium and discount of stock index futures narrowed significantly, indicating high market sentiment [5]. - From the perspective of the Spring Festival market evolution, the time is not yet up, but more than half of the upward space has been achieved. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 3 trillion yuan or even increase, the market risk is low; otherwise, attention should be paid [5]. 3.2.2国债期货 - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 16.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 342.4 billion yuan. The money market was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate was 1.39% [9]. - Affected by the escalation of geopolitical situations, the safe - haven sentiment rose. Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher in the morning, and futures performed better than spot bonds. TL2603 returned above the 10 - day moving average. In the past four trading days, the trend of treasury bonds has gradually become less correlated with the stock market [9]. - Since December, treasury bond futures have been under pressure due to increased expectations of stable growth and supply concerns. Although the PMI data in December returned above the boom - bust line and relevant policies were implemented at the beginning of the year, the sustainability of the data structure is questionable, and the fundamentals are hard to reverse. Currently, the above negative factors have been partially released [9]. 3.2.3贵金属 - In the Asian market today, the precious metals sector was significantly differentiated. Shanghai silver stood above the 20,000 - yuan integer mark for two consecutive days. Domestic gold and silver rose 1.01% and 5.90% respectively, while platinum and palladium fell 3.32% and 5.22% respectively, with the former two hitting new historical highs during the session [11]. - Speculative funds mainly increased their positions. Gold had a large - scale increase in positions for five consecutive days. According to the initial position data released by CME on the 12th, the total position of New York gold futures was 530,500 lots (+30,990 lots); the total position of New York silver futures was 152,800 lots (+2,306 lots); the total position of New York platinum futures was 77,757 lots (-1,361 lots); the total position of New York palladium futures was 19,519 lots (+113 lots) [11]. 3.2.4集运指数 - Shipping companies have lowered the spot freight rates, and the bullish sentiment in the container shipping index market has ebbed. The 04 - contract of the container shipping index significantly corrected on Tuesday. For example, Hapag - Lloyd lowered the booking freight rates for late January by $50 and $100 to $1,635/TEU and $2,635/FEU respectively; CMA CGM's latest quotes for some February voyages followed the January - end prices [14]. - The current transportation demand is stable, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. If the cargo volume growth before the Spring Festival falls short of expectations, the spot freight rate may reach an inflection point at the end of January. According to the China Shipping Prosperity Survey data, the prosperity range in the first quarter of this year has dropped to a slight prosperity level compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the confidence of container shipping enterprises has declined, and the corporate profit situation may narrow [14]. 3.3未来24小时重点数据 - Tonight (January 13): At 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted (%) is expected to be 2.7 (previous value 2.7); the US December core CPI annual rate unadjusted (%) is expected to be 2.7 (previous value 2.6); at 23:00, the US October seasonally - adjusted annualized total of new home sales (in ten thousand units) is expected to be 70.5 (previous value 70.5) [18]. - Tomorrow (January 14): At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on China's import and export situation in 2025; at 10:30, China's December trade balance in US dollars (in billions of US dollars) is expected to be 113.3 (previous value 111.68), the December export annual rate in US dollars (%) is expected to be 2.9 (previous value 5.9), and the December import annual rate in US dollars (%) is expected to be 0.8 (previous value 1.9); at 21:30, the US November retail sales monthly rate (%) is expected to be 0.4 (previous value 0), and the US November PPI annual rate (%) is expected to be 2.7 (previous value 2.7); at 23:00, the US December annualized total of existing home sales (in ten thousand units) is expected to be 421 (previous value 413) [18].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has broken years of restraint by publicly addressing a criminal investigation and political pressure from the Trump administration, which allegedly threatens to force the Fed to lower interest rates [2][4]. Group 1: Powell's Response to Investigation - Powell received a subpoena from a grand jury and decided to disclose the investigation publicly, marking a significant shift from his usual diplomatic and neutral stance [2][4]. - He characterized the investigation as a direct challenge to the Fed's independence and emphasized that the threat of criminal charges arises from the Fed's commitment to setting rates based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [4][5]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Market Reactions - Some Trump allies had anticipated that the pressure would lead Powell to resign before his term ends in May, but his public rebuttal signals a refusal to back down [3][5]. - Analysts were caught off guard by this escalation, especially since Powell has been pivotal in advocating for interest rate cuts during recent Fed meetings [6]. - Concerns are growing that if Powell loses his position as a protective figure, Trump's anger may shift towards other members of the Federal Open Market Committee [7]. Group 3: Future Implications and Risks - The current situation poses risks of further escalation, with Trump potentially attempting to dismiss Powell on grounds of "dereliction of duty," which could lead to prolonged legal battles [8]. - Political resistance is increasing, as Senator Thom Tillis indicated he would block any new Fed official nominations until the investigation concludes, complicating future personnel decisions at the Fed [8]. - Investors are shocked by the implications of potential criminal investigations for defying presidential orders, raising questions about the independence of any new Fed chair [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Fitch Ratings considers the "independence" of the Federal Reserve as a key factor in maintaining the United States' AA+ sovereign credit rating [1] - Prior to Fitch's statement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell disclosed that he received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice, indicating that federal prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation against him [1] - Last October, another credit rating agency, S&P Global Ratings, also identified the "independence" of the Federal Reserve as a critical support for maintaining the U.S. sovereign credit rating [1]

隔夜，现货黄金收盘暴涨87.96美元，涨幅1.95%，报4597.05美，金价盘中最高触及4630.28美元，创下 历史新高。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4594美元附近徘徊。 重磅数据来袭！ 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.17%，标普500指数涨0.16%，均创收盘新 高，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.26%。 消息面上，美国前财经要员联名批评特朗普政府对鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿总部翻修相关事宜，对美联储主席 鲍威尔启动刑事调查。 不过，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士12日发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对联邦储备委员会主 席鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 此外，曾担任美联储主席的耶伦、伯南克和格林斯潘发表声明声援现任美联储主席鲍威尔。他们称针对 鲍威尔的刑事调查是对美联储独立性的"前所未有"攻击。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 摩根大通认为，特朗普政府最新一轮对美联储独立性的攻击，至少在短期内对美股构成威胁。"宏观与 企业基本面支持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure exerted by the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve and the subsequent support for Chairman Jerome Powell from global central bank officials, highlighting concerns over the independence of monetary policy amid political pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Political Pressure - The Trump administration has escalated its pressure on the Federal Reserve, leading to a potential joint statement from multiple central banks in support of Powell [1]. - Powell is under criminal investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters and whether he misled Congress about the project's scope [1]. - The investigation includes an analysis of Powell's public statements and spending records, approved by the U.S. Attorney in November [1]. Group 2: Powell's Defense and Monetary Policy Independence - Powell asserts that the criminal threat is not related to his testimony or the renovation project, but rather a response to the Fed's independent decision-making on interest rates, which does not align with Trump's preferences [2]. - The ongoing legal actions against Powell raise concerns about the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, suggesting that monetary policy may become influenced by political demands rather than economic indicators [2]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Support - Canadian Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem expressed full support for Powell, emphasizing his commitment to evidence-based monetary policy amid political challenges [3]. - Other central bank leaders, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, have also defended Powell, underscoring the importance of central bank independence in the face of rising populism and public skepticism [3]. - Analysts suggest that this support aims to protect the credibility of central banks globally, signaling that attacks on the Fed could threaten all central banks [3].

美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查一事继续发酵！ 当地时间1月12日，美联储主席鲍威尔"被调查"的消息，占据了美国各大媒体的显著位置。市场担忧，此事将 对美联储的独立性带来实质性冲击。 同日，包括美联储前主席、美国财政部前部长在内的多名美国前财经要员发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对鲍 威尔发起刑事调查。 据彭博援引知情人士表示，在特朗普政府大幅升级对美联储的施压行动后，全球多家央行行长正在草拟一份声 明，以声援美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。这份联合声明预计将以国际清算银行（BIS）的名义发布，并将对所有 央行开放签署。该声明最早可能于当地时间周二发布。 有分析师警告，随着市场对美联储独立性及美联储抗通胀意愿的担忧加剧，投资者会要求更高的利率以弥补本 金受损的风险，从而导致债券收益率进一步上行。这将提高消费者的借贷成本，尤其是抵押贷款利率。 另有分析人士指出，特朗普政府动用刑事传票向美联储施压，将使下任美联储主席更难说服市场与公众相信央 行具备独立性，这反过来也会让控制通胀预期变得更加困难。 联名批评 据央视新闻消息，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士12日发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对联邦储备委员 会主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查 ...

Group 1 - The core event involves Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell facing a criminal investigation, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. Senate is reviewing the "2025 Digital Asset Market Clearity Act," which could impact the regulatory landscape for digital assets [2] - South Korea is set to implement the second phase of its cryptocurrency open policy, indicating a progressive regulatory approach [2] Group 2 - Overall policy regulation is becoming clearer, which is a long-term positive for the market; however, the Powell incident has created short-term risk aversion and uncertainty [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) is influenced by Federal Reserve speeches and economic data, with persistent inflation or hawkish signals potentially strengthening the dollar and suppressing BTC [3] - The conflict between Trump and Powell increases uncertainty; if the Fed accelerates interest rate cuts, it could push BTC to break the $100,000 mark [3] Group 3 - Institutional caution is reflected in an ETF outflow of approximately $480 million, although the long-term narrative remains strong [3] - Ethereum (ETH) benefits from the Fusaka upgrade, which enhances data capacity and efficiency, with institutional staking and ETF inflows of $25 million providing support [3] - Despite the positive developments, DeFi activity is slowing down, and macro uncertainties (such as a Fed pause) are increasing selling pressure on ETH [3] Group 4 - Current market conditions for BTC and ETH are characterized by consolidation, with fundamentals driven by macro policies and institutional flows [3] - Technical indicators show a neutral to bearish sentiment, but signs of overselling are emerging [3] - Short-term focus should be on Federal Reserve data and economic reports; a dovish stance could lead BTC to retest $95,000 and ETH to rebound to $3,300, while a hawkish stance could increase downside risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock's Global Fixed Income, advocates for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 3%, emphasizing the independence of the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Rieder believes that lowering the interest rate to 3% would bring it closer to a neutral level, which he defines as neither stimulating nor restricting the economy [2]. - Currently, the Federal Funds rate is in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, and a reduction to 3% would decrease borrowing costs by at least 50 basis points [2]. - Despite the Fed's recent rate cuts, officials' median expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are limited to only one instance of 25 basis points, while market expectations suggest at least two cuts [2]. Group 2: Fed Independence and Leadership - Rieder expresses confidence in the Fed's independence, stating that the committee will make decisions based on data and integrity [3]. - He acknowledges the accuracy of reports regarding his interview for the Fed Chair position and mentions that President Trump may announce the nominee before or after attending the World Economic Forum in Davos [3]. - Other candidates for the Fed Chair position include Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, and Chris Waller, but Trump has indicated that he has already decided on a nominee [3]. Group 3: Market Perspective - Rieder shares his market outlook, indicating a preference for a balanced investment approach rather than favoring small-cap stocks, and predicts that 2026 will be a market for investors rather than speculators [3].