Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump could lead to a more aggressive monetary policy, impacting market dynamics significantly [1][2][4]. Group 1: Potential Impact on Monetary Policy - Hassett's approach may shift the Fed from a "data-dependent" model to a "demand-driven" model, potentially resulting in earlier and larger interest rate cuts than currently anticipated [3][5]. - Market expectations are already adjusting to the possibility of "larger and faster rate cuts," with significant implications for interest-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Valuations - If Hassett is appointed, there may be a notable increase in stock and gold prices due to anticipated liquidity easing, while bank stocks could face pressure from narrowing interest margins [2][4]. - The potential for a "Christmas rally" in the stock market is suggested if Hassett is officially nominated before the holiday season [4]. Group 3: Concerns Over Fed Independence - Analysts express concerns that Hassett's close ties to the Trump administration could politicize monetary policy, undermining the Fed's independence and potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates due to inflation fears [5][6]. - The market may react negatively to perceived loss of Fed independence, impacting the valuation of U.S. dollar assets, with short-term bonds and gold likely benefiting [5][6]. Group 4: Uncertainty During Transition Period - The transition period between Powell and Hassett may create confusion in market expectations regarding monetary policy, leading to increased volatility in the short term [7].

Core Insights - The report indicates strong support among bankers for the independence of the Federal Reserve, with 95% considering it important for monetary policy [1][11][27] - Data security is highlighted as the primary concern in third-party collaborations, with 47% of bankers citing customer data breaches as their top worry [2][14][42] - Overall, bankers express a stable outlook for the industry, with expectations of declining funding costs and a slight increase in loan demand [3][16][46] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - 95% of bankers believe maintaining the Fed's independence in monetary policy is important, with 75% stating it is "very important" [1][11][27] - 88% of bankers assert that a Fed governor should only be removed for proven misconduct, reflecting a desire for political neutrality in monetary policy [2][12][23] Group 2: Third-Party Risk Management - Customer data breaches are the foremost concern for 47% of bankers when selecting third-party vendors, followed by vendor-related reputational and operational risks at 38% [2][14][42] - Understanding cybersecurity risks, particularly regarding sensitive consumer data, is deemed the most critical factor in managing third-party relationships by 52% of bankers [2][37] Group 3: Business Outlook - 58% of bankers report that deposit competition has remained steady, with 37% anticipating increased competition in the coming year [3][15][46] - 77% of banks have seen a decrease in funding costs over the past year, and 80% expect further declines in the next 12 months [3][16][46] - 46% of bankers have experienced an increase in loan demand recently, with 47% projecting further growth in the next year [3][16][46] Group 4: Economic Confidence - 36% of bankers believe the economic situation has improved over the past year, the highest level since Q1 2022, and 32% expect further improvement [4][46] - The "Bank Experience Index" and "Bank Confidence Index" have both shown continuous growth, indicating positive sentiment among bankers regarding the industry [4][46] Group 5: Conclusion - The survey reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook for the banking industry, emphasizing the importance of Fed independence and data security in third-party relationships, alongside stable expectations for funding costs and loan demand [5][46]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's inclination to appoint Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could be a significant personnel decision for his second term [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - Trump has indicated he knows who he wants to select for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with Hassett being a strong candidate due to his loyalty and credibility in the market [2][3]. - The selection process has narrowed down from 11 candidates to 5, with Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, current Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rieder as the finalists [4]. - The final candidates are set to meet with Vice President JD Vance and other White House staff, with an announcement expected before Christmas [5]. Group 2: Hassett's Qualifications and Controversies - Hassett's close relationship with Trump gives him an advantage over other candidates, having previously served as the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and currently as the Director of the National Economic Council [3][6]. - Despite his qualifications as an economist and his previous bipartisan confirmation, there are concerns among former colleagues regarding his temperament and willingness to challenge Trump when necessary [6][7]. - Hassett has previously defended the independence of the Federal Reserve but has recently criticized it alongside Trump, which has raised eyebrows among policymakers [7].

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普周日表示，他已确定下任美联储主席的人选。海外市场消息显示，目前，白宫 国家经济委员会主任、特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特最可能成为下一任美联储主席。 分析人士表示，作为特朗普制定经济政策的左膀右臂之一，哈塞特若当选，可能会更加积极地推动降 息，把美联储政策利率从目前的3.75–4.0%降至3.0%以下。 美联储现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月到期，新主席的遴选工作已经进入尾声。除哈塞特 外，其他候选人包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，前美联储理事凯文·沃什。此前，沃勒当选的呼声较 高，但11月底以来，哈塞特胜出的概率大幅上升。截至北京时间周二11：30，美国预测网站Polymarket 的数据显示，哈塞特当选概率为66%，沃勒则降至4%。 美联储主席由总统提名，同时需要参议院确认，任期4年。按照往常的惯例，下一任主席人选应该在今 年冬季公布。据负责新主席遴选工作的美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特透露，特朗普很可能在圣诞节前正 式宣布提名结果。 上周，彭博社、路透社等多家媒体称哈塞特深受特朗普信任，是接替鲍威尔的热门人选。哈塞特周日在 哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The New York precious metals futures prices continue to rise, particularly silver, which surged over 2% due to a short squeeze effect, reaching a new historical high [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - As of December 1, 2023, the February 2026 gold futures price increased by $8.6, closing at $4,265 per ounce, with a rise of 0.20% [1] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December and concerns over a slowing U.S. economy have pressured the dollar index, contributing to the strength of precious metals [1] - The market perceives an 87% probability of a rate cut in December, significantly influencing the recent surge in gold and silver prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators Impacting the Dollar - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, below market expectations, indicating economic activity weakness [2] - The dollar index decreased by 0.03% to 99.415, reflecting the impact of the weak economic data [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have also supported the rise in precious metals [2] Group 3: Silver Market Specifics - Strong investment demand has tightened the supply of silver, with ETF holdings increasing by 9.5 million ounces last week [3] - COMEX silver inventories have dropped to an eight-month low, indicating a significant supply crunch [3] - On December 1, the March 2026 silver futures price rose by $1.365, closing at $58.450 per ounce, with an intraday high of $59.435 [3]

智通财经APP获悉，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)愈发被市场视为下一任美 联储主席的最热门人选。在被问及这一情况时，特朗普周日在"空军一号"上对记者表示："我已经知道 我要选谁了，没错，我们将公布。"然而，无论最终特朗普的提名人选是谁，他都将接手一个在未来货 币政策利率路径上存在严重分歧并且面临要求进行大刀阔斧改革呼声的美联储。 2025年1月重返白宫开启第二个美国总统任期的唐纳德·特朗普已经知道他将选择谁来担任掌舵美联储货 币政策框架的下一任美联储主席，但目前还不打算公开。Polymarket等知名付费型预测市场平台似乎已 经有了自己的判断，而这位热门人选本人也在刻意保持低调。 尽管这部分谜团似乎将在未来几周内明朗得多，但远不确定的是，新任美联储掌舵者将在何种环境下履 职——而在此之际可能正是美国经济增长的一个重要十字路口。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特被认为是最明显的热门人选，此前已经有媒体对于接替现任美联 储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的五人竞争格局进行了"赔率"分析，实际上确立了市场上的投资者们对于哈塞特 遥遥领先的支持率。鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束。 "我已 ...

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 郑雨航 每经编辑｜程鹏 兰素英 鲍威尔将辞职的传闻，最早由一个币圈相关账号在X平台发布。但截至目前，包括美联储和白宫在内的官方渠道均未有任何证据支持这一说法。 美联储官网日程显示，鲍威尔将在美国东部时间12月1日晚8点（北京时间12月2日早上9点）参加一场活动，但这只是常规演讲，并非传闻中的紧急会议。 今年7月，也有一封由AI伪造的鲍威尔"辞职信"在社交媒体疯传。包括参议员迈克·李在内的多位MAGA阵营人士信以为真并转发，随后又紧急删除。 美国东部时间11月30日晚，一篇关于"鲍威尔即将召开紧急会议并宣布辞职"的"小作文"在国外社交媒体迅速发酵。 国际关系学院美国问题专家孙冰岩向《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）指出，鲍威尔主动辞职概率为0。市场希望通过"换帅"消息来推动降 息。若鲍威尔下台，接下来上任的大概率是鸽派人物。 在小道消息甚嚣尘上的同一天，美国总统特朗普宣布，他已经确定了下任美联储主席的人选，将在近期公布。从预测平台Polymarket的数据来看，白宫国 家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特获提名的概率高达74%。 孙冰岩对此分析道，哈塞特与鲍威尔的根基差异不大，更多是细节判断 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's announcement regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair has created significant tension and speculation in the financial markets, marking a departure from traditional practices in U.S. politics [1][3][15] Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's relationship with current Chair Powell has been strained, with past public disputes and pressure for more aggressive interest rate cuts [3][10] - The announcement appears to be a strategic move to exert influence over the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, raising concerns about the independence of the institution [3][8][15] - The political maneuvering surrounding the Fed Chair position reflects broader tensions between domestic politics and global economic stability [15][17] Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the new Chair's alignment with White House interests has heightened market sensitivity, with potential implications for the dollar's value and global inflation [5][12][15] - Investors are on high alert, as changes in Fed leadership can lead to significant shifts in monetary policy, affecting capital flows and market confidence [5][14][15] - The market's reaction to the new Chair will depend on their perceived independence and ability to maintain the Fed's credibility [17] Group 3: Institutional Integrity - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining market confidence, and any perceived political interference could undermine its authority [8][9][10] - Historical precedents show that previous administrations respected the Fed's autonomy, making Trump's approach particularly notable [14][15] - The potential for the Fed to become a tool of the White House raises concerns about the long-term implications for U.S. monetary policy and global economic stability [10][15]

美国总统特朗普一记"预告式官宣"，再度将全球目光聚焦于美联储主席人选之争。当地时间周日，特朗普公开表示已确定下任美联储主席 人选，但拒绝透露姓名，仅称"很快公布"。这场牵动全球金融市场的权力更迭，瞬间引爆舆论：是政治筹码的赤裸博弈，还是美国经济政 策转向的信号灯？ 一、一场"官宣前的沉默战"：为何特朗普故弄玄虚？ 首先，哈塞特的政策立场与特朗普高度同频。他长期主张宽松货币政策，公开支持"降低贷款利率"，这与特朗普呼吁大幅降息的诉求不谋 而合。其次，作为特朗普旧部，哈塞特若执掌美联储，或将大幅削弱央行独立性，使货币政策更直接服务于白宫政治目标。 但隐患同样明显：哈塞特虽擅长政治沟通，却缺乏央行系统任职经验。相比之下，美联储理事沃勒等人更具专业背景。特朗普若坚持提 名"自己人"，恐引发市场对美联储政治化的更深忧虑。 三、鲍威尔辞职"小作文"：谣言背后的权力暗涌 事件另一爆点，是社交媒体突然流传"鲍威尔将于12月1日辞职"的匿名消息。尽管该传闻未被主流媒体证实，但其发酵速度折射出市场对 美联储高层动荡的强烈不安。 特朗普的"预告"看似突然，实则暗合其一贯的政治策略。一方面，他高调宣称"已做出决定"，另一方面却对热门 ...

Group 1 - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair raises concerns about a possible interest rate cut, which could negatively impact the US dollar [1][2] - Market reactions to Hassett's nomination rumors have been muted, possibly due to his status as a popular candidate and recent declines in Treasury yields [1][3] - The probability of Hassett's nomination has increased by 18 percentage points to 53%, while other candidates like Christopher Waller and Kevin Walsh have lower probabilities [1][2] Group 2 - The market currently downplays risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve, despite concerns about the government's desire to lower rising national debt financing costs [3][4] - Analysts believe that the future path of interest rates will primarily depend on new economic data rather than the preferences of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve Chair [3][4] - Even if Hassett is seen as less independent compared to other candidates, his traditional economic background may prevent extreme policy shifts [3][4]