Core Insights - The core point of the news is the significant growth in orders for Chip Origin Co., Ltd., which has reached a historical high for a single quarter, driving the strength of the AI computing chip concept and related stocks [1][6]. Company Performance - Chip Origin Co., Ltd. announced that it signed nearly 2.5 billion yuan in new orders for the fourth quarter, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 129.94% [2][7]. - Over 84% of the new orders in the fourth quarter are related to AI computing, indicating a rapid growth in demand for AI ASIC chips [2][7]. Industry Trends - ByteDance is set to purchase Ascend chips from Huawei, with total orders expected to exceed 40 billion yuan by 2026, marking a significant step in the domestic computing power replacement [3][8]. - The domestic computing power sector is experiencing changes on both the supply and demand sides, with continuous iterations of domestic chips represented by Huawei's Ascend and major internet companies adapting to these chips [10]. ETF and Market Dynamics - The Huabao Science and Technology Innovation AI ETF (589520) has seen a maximum intraday increase of 2.07%, closing up 0.69% with a trading volume of 35.94 million yuan, reflecting a 26% increase in trading activity [1][6]. - The ETF focuses on the domestic AI industry chain, with over 70% of its top ten holdings concentrated in the semiconductor sector, indicating a strong offensive strategy [10]. Stock Performance - Leading stocks include Chip Origin Co., Ltd. with a rise of over 5%, followed by Yun Tian Li Fei and Cambricon Technologies, both increasing by over 4% [4][9].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue its upward trend due to clear domestic policy, strong economic growth momentum, and relatively loose market liquidity[3] - Investors are advised to actively position for the spring market, focusing on sectors with improving performance and benefiting from policies[3] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - BeiGene (688235.SH): Global sales of its core product, Zanubrutinib, reached $2.78 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53.2%[4] - Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ): The storage cycle is on the rise, and the company is expected to benefit from the L3 autonomous driving market[11] - Haiguang Information (688041.SH): The company is a leading domestic computing power provider, with revenue maintaining rapid growth in the first three quarters of 2025[18] - Daotong Technology (688208.SH): The company has seen rapid revenue growth and is advancing its AI strategy[26] - Penghui Energy (300438.SZ): The company ranks among the top three globally in household storage cell shipments in the first three quarters of 2025[32] - Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ): The gross margin for wind turbine and component business reached 7.97% in the first half of 2025, showing significant improvement[39] - Chifeng Gold (600988.SH): The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and increased production from new mining projects[46] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH): The company is positioned to benefit from rising copper prices and increased production[52] - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH): The company reported a 120.7% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025[57] - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH): The company has maintained a high dividend yield, exceeding 3% since 2018[65]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook based on recent developments in the duty-free retail sector and domestic dairy industry [1]. Core Insights - The duty-free retail sales in Hainan have significantly increased following the implementation of the duty-free policy, with sales amounting to 1.1 billion yuan during the first week of operation, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.9% [3][15]. - The EU's preliminary anti-subsidy investigation into dairy products has led to the imposition of temporary anti-subsidy tax measures, which are expected to increase the import costs of EU dairy products, thereby benefiting domestic dairy producers [3][15]. - The consumer sector showed mixed performance in the last week of December, with textile and apparel, home appliances, and retail sectors showing positive growth, while food and beverage, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced declines [3][13]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector exhibited varied performance, with textile and apparel (+0.61%), home appliances (+0.54%), and retail (+0.16%) showing gains, while food and beverage (-0.56%), social services (-1.05%), and beauty care (-1.08%) faced declines [3][5]. - Notable stock performances included Anji Food (+29.65%), Feike Electric (+24.57%), and Jujie Microfiber (+35.46%) leading the gains, while Huanle Home (-16.35%) and China High-Tech (-26.02%) were among the biggest losers [3][13]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The duty-free shopping in Hainan has shown a robust growth trend, with significant increases in shopping amounts and visitor numbers following the policy implementation [15][16]. - The report highlights the launch of the first Pop Mart store in the Philippines, indicating expansion into international markets [18]. - The report also notes various company announcements, including changes in housing policies in Beijing aimed at easing home purchase conditions for non-local families [18].

| 潘宁河 | | --- | | 执业登记编码：S0760523110001 | | 邮箱：panninghe@sxzq.com | | 林挺 | | 执业登记编码：S0760524100003 | | 邮箱：linting@sxzq.com | 其他专用机械 瑞晟智能（688215.SH） 增持-A(首次) 智能工厂装备领军者，算力机器人双轮驱动 2025 年 12 月 29 日 公司研究/公司分析 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点： | 市场数据：2025 年 | 12 月 | 29 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元/股）： | | | 68.05 | | 总股本（亿股）： | | | 0.62 | | 流通股本（亿股）： | | | 0.62 | | 流通市值（亿元）： | | | 42.48 | | 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 | 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元/股）： | | 7.95 | | 每股资本公积（元/股）： | | 4.40 | | 每股未分配利润（元/ | | 1.99 | | 股）： | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the "Four Little Dragons" of domestic GPUs—Mole Thread, Muxi Technology, Bilan Technology, and Tensu Zhixin—marks a significant moment in the capital market, raising questions about their sustainable growth amidst international competition [1][8]. Group 1: Company Profiles and Strategies - Mole Thread, with a team rooted in Nvidia, emphasizes ecosystem compatibility and parallel development of graphics rendering and AI computing, utilizing its self-developed MUSA architecture [2][3]. - Muxi Technology and Tensu Zhixin adopt a pragmatic approach similar to AMD, focusing on high-performance parallel computing while sacrificing complex graphics rendering capabilities [2][3]. - Bilan Technology stands out with its original architecture and Chiplet technology, aiming for extreme computing performance and flexibility in product offerings [3][4]. Group 2: Market Position and Performance - The "Four Little Dragons" have begun to establish their presence in various sectors, with Bilan achieving commercial success in heterogeneous training solutions, Mole Thread securing large-scale delivery contracts, Muxi reporting significant orders, and Tensu being the first to achieve mass production of 7nm GPGPU [7][8]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by overlapping targets among the four companies, particularly in securing contracts from major internet firms and local government data centers [15][16]. Group 3: Financial Insights and Challenges - All four companies exhibit high growth accompanied by significant losses, with R&D expenses consuming a large portion of their revenues, particularly for Muxi and Tensu [19][20]. - The R&D expenditure for 2024 shows that Mole Thread has 886 R&D personnel with a rate of 309.88%, while Muxi has 706 personnel with a rate of 121.24% [21]. - The timeline for achieving profitability is projected around 2026-2027, mirroring Nvidia's early growth trajectory [22]. Group 4: Ecosystem and Market Dynamics - The competition extends beyond hardware performance to include software ecosystems, with each company developing its own software stack to attract developers and enhance product value [23][24]. - The ability to expand customer bases and maintain high repurchase rates will be crucial for validating the true value of their products in a market increasingly driven by performance and cost [24][25]. - The stability of supply chains is critical, as the GPU industry is interconnected with various sectors, and any disruptions could significantly impact production and market presence [25].

超募研究所 . 结合公域&私域数据以及实操咨询业务，为私募股权行业从业者（FOF、LP、GP、企业等）提供专业、垂直类研究内容。 以下文章来源于超募研究所 ，作者Mira 导读： 赚钱效应强势回归。 作者｜ Mira 2025年底，中国科技投资市场被 "中国GPU四小龙" 的集中上市彻底点燃。头部GPU企业集中上市的热潮，不仅刷新了市场对国产高端芯片赛道的估 值认知，更让早期投资的造富效应再度成为焦点。 12月5日，成立仅5年的GPU企业摩尔线程登陆科创板，首日股价 暴涨425% ，收盘价定格在600.5元/股，盘中市值冲破 3200亿元 。 摩尔线程成立仅3个月，沛县乾曜兴科技合伙企业（有限合伙）便果断参与其首轮融资，以仅仅1000万元的投前估值，向摩尔线程投资了190万元。以 首日收盘价测试， 这笔早期布局的投资回报超5300倍 ，沛县乾曜背后的投资人，凭借对硬科技赛道的精准押注，上演了一场堪称教科书级别的早期 投资造富案例。 这样的造富神话并非个例。从12月17日沐曦股份科创板上市首日693%的涨幅，到12月17日壁仞科技通过港交所聆讯，12月19日天数智芯通过港交 所聆讯。至此， "中国GPU四小龙" ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the price of photovoltaic silicon wafers, indicating a positive trend in the solar energy sector. Additionally, major companies such as Mitsui Chemicals are consolidating their ethylene businesses, which may enhance operational efficiencies [1][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 7th in overall performance for the week of December 22-26, 2025, with a gain of 4.23%. This performance outpaced the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points [3][20]. Key Industry Trends - The report notes a continued divergence in the chemical industry’s prosperity, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5]. Synthetic Biology - The report emphasizes the arrival of a pivotal moment for synthetic biology, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies are expected to face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that leverage green energy and scale advantages are likely to thrive [5]. Refrigerants - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is expected to lead to a high-growth cycle. The supply of second-generation refrigerants is being reduced, while demand remains stable due to market expansions in heat pumps and cold chains [6]. Electronic Specialty Gases - The electronic specialty gas market is characterized by high technical barriers and value addition. The domestic market is facing a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements [7][8]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is highlighted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is expected to enhance production efficiency and align with global carbon neutrality goals [8]. COC Polymers - The report discusses the accelerated industrialization of COC/COP materials in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the increasing demand from downstream industries [9]. Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, alleviating inventory pressures. The report suggests that the market is entering a destocking phase, which could lead to price stabilization [10]. MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with major players controlling over 90% of global capacity. Despite current price pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive as demand recovers [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yili Group (stock code: 600887) [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies and improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival stocking season [1] - The report highlights that the company is positioned to gain from the implementation of temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products, which may enhance domestic product competitiveness [5] - The company is also likely to benefit from ongoing government support for childbirth, which is expected to boost milk powder consumption [5] - The report anticipates revenue growth of 2.1% in 2025, 4.0% in 2026, and 3.9% in 2027, with net profit growth projected at 32.5%, 7.8%, and 7.0% respectively [5] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in million CNY)**: - 2024A: 115,780 - 2025E: 118,264 - 2026E: 122,993 - 2027E: 127,731 - **Net Profit Forecast (in million CNY)**: - 2024A: 8,453 - 2025E: 11,200 - 2026E: 12,079 - 2027E: 12,930 - **EPS Forecast (in CNY)**: - 2024A: 1.34 - 2025E: 1.77 - 2026E: 1.91 - 2027E: 2.04 - **PE Ratio**: - 2024A: 21.78 - 2025E: 16.43 - 2026E: 15.24 - 2027E: 14.24 [2][6][7] Market Data - The closing price of Yili Group's A-shares as of December 26, 2025, was CNY 29.10, with a market capitalization of CNY 183.2 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry in China is expected to end its downward cycle in 2026, presenting structural investment opportunities due to the recovery of downstream demand, the acceleration of domestic substitution, and the ongoing implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2]. Group 1: Traditional Chemical Sector Recovery - The core opportunity in the traditional chemical sector for 2026 arises from improved supply-demand dynamics driven by anti-involution policies, leading to a rational price recovery [2][18]. - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon has peaked, with major companies leading production cuts to stabilize prices, resulting in inventory levels dropping to a three-year low [2][4]. - PTA production capacity expansion is nearing completion, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential recovery in the polyester chain's profitability [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Chemicals and Price Recovery - The agricultural chemical sector is poised for growth as safety incidents have disrupted global pesticide supply chains, leading to a supply contraction that catalyzes price recovery [4][8]. - The price index for raw agricultural chemicals has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating a potential rebound in prices [4]. Group 3: Acceleration of Domestic Substitution in New Materials - The domestic substitution of chemical new materials is gaining momentum, driven by government support and technological advancements, becoming a key growth engine for the industry [9][10]. - The market for lubricating oil additives has seen a decrease in imports and an increase in exports, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter and enhancing domestic brands' market presence [10]. - The electronic chemicals sector is benefiting from the growth of AI and semiconductor industries, with domestic manufacturers achieving technological breakthroughs and entering major supply chains [14][17]. Group 4: Demand Recovery and Policy Support - Gradual recovery in downstream demand, particularly in the real estate and automotive sectors, is expected to support the chemical industry's growth [18][19]. - Government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and stimulating consumption are expected to bolster demand for chemical products, enhancing the industry's resilience [19]. - The implementation of anti-involution policies and regulations is expected to improve market competition and guide industry profitability back to reasonable levels [19]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment in the chemical industry should focus on three core areas: capitalizing on cyclical recovery opportunities in sectors like organic silicon and PTA, investing in high-growth areas such as bio-based materials and electronic chemicals, and targeting leading chemical companies with cost and scale advantages [20]. - The industry is at a critical juncture of cyclical reversal and structural upgrade, with both cyclical and growth opportunities present [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the active performance of semiconductor stocks in the A-share market, driven by the launch of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund, which is expected to mobilize trillions in funding for early-stage projects in integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [2][3]. - The semiconductor index saw a rise of over 1.5%, with individual stocks like Maiwei Co. hitting a 20% limit up, and other companies such as Dongwei Semiconductor and Cambricon also experiencing significant gains [3]. - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to attract diverse investments from local governments, central enterprises, financial institutions, and private capital, focusing on strategic emerging industries and future industries [3]. Group 2 - In the South Korean stock market, major chip manufacturers like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have seen their stock prices rise significantly, with SK Hynix increasing by over 6% and Samsung Electronics by over 2% [4]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $659.1 billion in 2024, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth, with integrated circuits making up the largest share at 73.9% [6]. - Investment opportunities are emerging in the domestic semiconductor industry, particularly in third-generation semiconductor materials, computing chips, and RF communication chips, driven by national policies and international dynamics [6][7].