1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG exhibits a game between sentiment and fundamentals, with PG oscillating before the holiday. In the short - term, the internal and external market logics are differentiated, and the PG price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is advisable to pay attention to geopolitical situations and opportunistically short at high levels [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Can - Chemical Product Closing Price Monitoring - The report presents the closing prices, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of various can - chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current value of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate is 6,959 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.13%, a monthly decrease of 0.77%, and an annual decrease of 2.95%. The current value of LPG is 4,258 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly decrease of 0.75%, a monthly increase of 0.88%, and an annual decrease of 2.34% [3]. 3.2. LPG: Game between Sentiment and Fundamentals, PG Oscillates before the Holiday - **Supply**: It is bearish. Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 548,800 tons. The civil gas commodity volume was 225,400 tons (-2.76%), the industrial gas was 191,700 tons (0.31%), and the ether - after carbon four was 179,800 tons (0.94%). The LPG arrival volume last week was 510,000 tons (2.63%). Domestic supply increased this week, but it is expected to decline next week [4]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. The winter heating demand is maintained, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving. However, the PDH device load will gradually decrease before the Spring Festival, and the propane chemical demand is expected to decline. The MTBE profit is in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending oil demand is slowing down, which restrains the civil gas price [4]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. Last week, the LPG refinery inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the port inventory showed a trend of accumulating. Refineries successfully reduced inventory, while some ports withheld goods for sale [4]. - **Basis and Position**: It is neutral. The weekly average basis in East China, South China, and Shandong are 234.80 yuan/ton, 644.80 yuan/ton, and 261.80 yuan/ton respectively. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume increased by 6,902 lots [4]. - **Chemical Downstream**: It is bearish. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 62.66%, 58.15%, and 36.54% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are -374 yuan/ton, 142 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: It is bullish. The PG - SC ratio is 25 (0.41%), and the PG primary - secondary monthly spread is -303 yuan/ton (3.06%). The oil - gas cracking spread has a weakening trend [4]. - **Other Factors**: It is bullish. The US EIA oil and gas inventory continued to decline last week. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine regions are intensifying. The natural gas price has skyrocketed due to the cold wave, and the geopolitical situation has caused market panic [4]. 3.3. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures oscillated and declined, with a price fluctuation range of 4,110 - 4,360 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices oscillated sharply and trended downward, and international LPG prices oscillated. Domestic supply and demand both decreased, and the spread between ether - after carbon four and civil gas was inverted [6]. 3.4. LPG Futures Price, Monthly Spread, and Cross - Month Spread Overview - **Futures Price**: The current values of PG01 - PG12 contracts are between 4,082 - 4,516 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, most contracts decreased, and compared with last month, most contracts increased [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values and changes of various monthly spreads are presented. For example, the PG01 - PG02 spread is -134 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 47.25% and a monthly decrease of 494.12% [11]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: The current values and changes of various cross - month spreads are also presented. For example, the PG01 - PG03 spread is -49 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 800.00% and a monthly decrease of 141.18% [11]. 3.5. Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many refineries under Sinopec, PetroChina, Sinochem, and CNOOC have maintenance plans, with different maintenance times and capacities [13]. - **Local Refineries**: Some local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China also have maintenance plans, and some of the end times are undetermined [13]. 3.6. International Spot Price - The report shows the price trends of CP propane, CP butane, MB propane, MB butane, FEI propane, and FEI butane, as well as the spreads between them [16][27][30]. 3.7. Other Related Data - The report also presents data on LPG consumption, production, import and export, port inventory, refinery inventory, and deep - processing profits, etc., and shows their trends over time [135][150][174][195].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - **Weak or Bearish**: PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PVC [9][10][11][18][19][68] - **Neutral**: Rubber, PP,烧碱, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), short - fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, pure benzene [13][24][28][32][36][43][47][48][53][63][70][80][82][84][91] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Market Volatility**: Most commodities are in a state of oscillation, with some facing upward or downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - **Seasonal and Event - Driven Factors**: The approaching Spring Festival affects market supply and demand, with some industries experiencing reduced trading activity and inventory changes. Geopolitical events, such as the Iran - US negotiations, also impact market sentiment [41][79] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**:节前区间震荡，下方有支撑，月差反套。2月聚酯需求真空期，产业链上游供需格局转弱，开工率上升，PXN加工费压缩，建议PTA加工费450以上逢高试空 [9] - **PTA**:下方空间有限，月差偏空。终端需求方面，1月纺织内销收尾、外贸有单，聚酯开工2月预计80.5%、3月回暖至91%，单边关注5100元/吨支撑 [10] - **MEG**:供应压力大，基差月差反套操作。供应装置开工率回升，海外装置3月供应减量，但需求端聚酯停车，2月累库压力大，节后库存消化难 [11] Rubber - 宽幅震荡，春节期间半钢和全钢轮胎样本企业放假天数较去年略有减少，复工计划时间变化不大 [12][14][15] Synthetic Rubber - 震荡承压，短期预计高位回落，宏观情绪震荡，部分估值指标处于高位，下游企业生产利润被压缩，负反馈预期增加 [16][18] LLDPE - 进口窗口缩窄，节前偏震荡市。原料端原油价格回落企稳，中东地缘局势不定，乙烯单体环节偏弱，PE乙烯工艺利润有所修复，关注节中累库幅度及节后去化斜率 [19][20] PP - 估值修复有限，出口周签单下滑。成本端原油、丙烷价格震荡，烯烃内部估值分化，供应端2605合约前无新投产，需求端下游新单刚需跟进，关注PDH装置边际变化 [22][23] Caustic Soda - 成本抬升，估值低位。此前做空烧碱利润的逻辑后期或受挑战，液氯短期强势格局4月后或难持续，烧碱成本抬升，需求端偏弱，供应端3月后减产和降负预期增强，建议春节前03合约空单止盈，05合约逐步低位建仓多单 [27] Paper Pulp - 震荡运行，假期临近，市场交投活动减轻，呈现有价无市特征，供需基本面未变，关注供需基本面及宏观环境变化 [30][33] Glass - 原片价格平稳，国内浮法玻璃价格主流稳定，临近春节，贸易商及加工厂陆续放假，市场刚需走弱，局部产能有缩减预期，对价格有一定支撑 [35][36] Methanol - 震荡运行，宏观层面伊朗和美国谈判难有定论，基本面港口库存同比高位且有伊朗装置复产预期，驱动中性偏向下，上方2300 - 2350元/吨有压力，下方参考河南地区煤头装置现金流成本线 [41][42] Urea - 震荡有支撑，节前受春节收单和春耕需求强预期支撑，05合约基本面压力位在1830元/吨附近，支撑位在1750 - 1760元/吨附近 [46][47] Styrene - 高位震荡，资金退潮，绝对价格高位震荡，关注eb利润缩，纯苯二季度后格局转好，关注eb利润缩以及px - eb的机会 [49] Soda Ash - 现货市场变化不大，国内纯碱市场低位震荡，企业装置窄幅波动，下游需求不温不火，价格或弱稳震荡 [52] LPG - 地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 [56] Propylene - 供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 [57] PVC - 偏弱震荡，春节假期临近，供需基本面转弱，行业库存累库，预计节前偏弱震荡，2026年供应端检修旺季减产力度可能超预期 [67][68] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**:窄幅调整，短期弱势暂缓 [70] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**:偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续下探 [70] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - 震荡市，运价指数有不同程度下跌，关注市场供需和宏观因素变化 [72] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Short - Fiber**:短期震荡市，期货震荡盘整，现货工厂报价多维稳，下游按需采购，产销率有变化 [81] - **Bottle Chips**:短期震荡市，上游原料期货震荡，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳，市场成交气氛尚可 [82] Offset Printing Paper - 空单止盈离场，山东和广东市场纸价稳定，规模纸厂维持排产，部分中小纸厂停产，市场走货一般 [84][85][87] Pure Benzene - 偏强震荡，山东地炼纯苯成交受阻，港口库存有去库情况，关注市场动态和库存变化 [89][90][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the international crude oil market showed high volatility and wide - range fluctuations, mainly driven by the repeated geopolitical negotiations between the US and Iran. Combined with macro - demand concerns and supply - side signals, oil prices first fell and then rebounded, but still recorded a weekly decline, ending the previous consecutive upward trend. Geopolitics is the short - term trading focus. If the US - Iran negotiation makes substantial progress, the risk premium will quickly fade, and oil prices may further decline to the $60 - 62 range; if the situation becomes tense or the negotiation breaks down, prices may quickly rise above $68 - 70 [5]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for unilateral trading, expect wide - range fluctuations; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market Performance**: The international crude oil market this week had high volatility and wide - range fluctuations, with prices first falling and then rebounding, but a weekly decline was recorded, ending the previous upward trend [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: wide - range fluctuations; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Macro - **US Labor Market**: The ADP data shows that the market expects a mild recovery in private - sector new employment, and there are continuous concerns about labor market cooling. The non - farm employment data for January is expected to add about 70,000 jobs, with the employment rate stable at around 4.4% and a moderate average hourly wage growth. This data has been postponed to next week due to the government shutdown [11]. - **US Dollar Index**: It strengthened during the week, suppressing market risk appetite and causing a sharp decline in the commodity market. It weakened on Friday, leading to a recovery in risk appetite [11]. 3.2.2 Supply - **Russian Oil Exports**: As of late January, over 140 million barrels of Russian crude oil were stranded at sea, causing payment delays and port congestion. Russian oil revenue is at a low point since the war, with a 24% year - on - year decline in 2025 and accounting for less than 23% of the budget, a 20 - year low [14]. - **Iranian Issue**: Geopolitical factors dominated the market. At the beginning of the week, the expectation of negotiation easing led to a decline in oil prices, while in the middle and late week, due to the resurgence of negotiation uncertainty and the US shooting down an Iranian drone, the geopolitical premium increased and oil prices rebounded. The possibility of a direct conflict in the short term is low, but tail risks still exist [17]. - **US Oil**: On February 6th, the number of active US oil rigs was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1. In the week of January 30th, US crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day. The EIA slightly raised the forecast for US crude oil production in 2026, expecting the annual average production to remain at around 13.6 million barrels per day, basically the same as in 2025 (with a decline of less than 1%). It is expected that production in 2027 will decline more significantly, to 13.3 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 2% (or about 340,000 barrels per day) compared to 2026 [18][20]. 3.2.3 Balance - The IEA's January balance sheet slightly increased the demand forecast for 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day, the third consecutive upward revision. Supply was revised up by 100,000 barrels per day, mainly due to slightly higher - than - expected production increases in non - OPEC+ (especially in the Americas). In an environment of both supply and demand growth, the surplus is still high, with a surplus of 4.25 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 [23]. 3.2.4 Market Conditions - **Western Market**: The Middle East market was relatively strong. The spread between the first - line and third - line of the Dubai swap strengthened, remaining above 0 during the week but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. The DFL weakened significantly on a week - on - week basis, remaining around $0.7 - 0.8 per barrel, and the EFS also increased slightly [24][26]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price and Monthly Spread**: Data on the first - line prices and monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and Dubai are presented [30]. - **Crude Oil Spot - Europe & West Africa**: Data on DFL, CFD 1W - 1M, and various oil - type discounts are provided [33]. - **Crude Oil Spot - Middle East & Mediterranean**: Data on CPC, Azeri, Urals, Oman discounts, and EFS first - line are presented [37]. - **Crude Oil Spot - North America**: Data on Brent - WTI, Cushing - Midland, LLS - Mars spreads are provided [41]. - **US EIA Weekly Data**: Data on US crude oil production, feed - in volume, export volume, import volume, refinery operating rate, gasoline production, distillate production, jet fuel production, commercial inventory, Cushing inventory, and strategic inventory are presented [44][47][50]. - **Inventory - Crude Oil Floating Storage & Waterborne**: Data on global, Asian, European, and Middle Eastern crude oil floating storage, as well as global waterborne and in - transit crude oil are provided [54]. - **Inventory - European Refined Oil**: Data on ARA fuel oil, diesel, gasoline, naphtha, and jet fuel inventories are presented [57]. - **Inventory - Singapore & Middle East Refined Oil**: Data on Singapore's heavy, medium, and light inventories, as well as Fujeirah's heavy, medium, and light inventories are provided [60]. - **Cracking and Profit - Northwest Europe**: Data on NEW - Brent - Topping, NEW - Brent - HSK, NEW - Brent - HCU, and NEW - Brent - FCC cracking spreads are provided [66]. - **Cracking and Profit - Asia - Pacific**: Data on APAC - Dubai - FCC, APAC - Dubai - HCU, APAC - Dubai - HSK, and APAC - Dubai - Topping cracking spreads are provided [71]. - **Cracking and Profit - North America**: Data on US - WTI - FCC, US - WTI - Coking, US - WTI - HSK, and US - WTI - Topping cracking spreads are provided [76]. - **Oil Price vs. Position**: Data on the relationship between Brent and WTI prices and their management fund net positions are presented [79][82].

Report Title - LPG Liquefied Gas Weekly Report: Focus on US-Iran Negotiations [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG has been oscillating within a range after a previous decline. Overseas, Middle Eastern supplies remain tight with rising Saudi CP prices in March and uncertain Iranian situation, keeping prices high. In Europe and America, cold snaps led to continuous inventory reduction of propane in the US, driving prices up with natural gas, but supply is sufficient. Domestically, although the arrival volume is low, refinery off - gas has increased. In terms of demand, combustion demand is still in the peak season, but chemical demand is weak, with low PDH operating rates due to high import prices and poor profits. Looking ahead, refinery off - gas may decline slightly, and there is no sign of further weakening in PDH operations. The impact of the Iranian negotiations should be continuously monitored [4]. - Unilateral trading strategy: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage strategy: wait - and - see; Option strategy: wait - and - see [5] Summary of Each Chapter Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Overseas market: Tight Middle Eastern supply, rising Saudi CP prices in March, and uncertain Iranian situation keep Middle Eastern prices high. In Europe and America, cold snaps in the US led to propane inventory reduction, driving prices up with natural gas, but supply is sufficient. - Domestic market: Supply side shows low arrival volume but increased refinery off - gas. Demand side has strong combustion demand but weak chemical demand, with low PDH operating rates due to high import prices and poor profits. Future refinery off - gas may decline slightly, and PDH operations may not weaken further [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Option: wait - and - see [5] Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis Crude Oil - The international crude oil market is highly volatile and widely oscillating, mainly driven by the repeated US - Iran geopolitical negotiations, along with macro - demand concerns and supply - side signals. Oil prices first fell and then rebounded, but still ended the week lower, breaking the previous upward trend. Geopolitical factors led to a roller - coaster market. At the beginning of the week, easing negotiation expectations reduced geopolitical risks and oil prices declined. In the middle and later part of the week, negotiation uncertainties and the US shooting down an Iranian drone increased the geopolitical premium and oil prices rebounded. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC + confirmed no change in the March production policy, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price to Asia, the impact of extreme cold in the US is fading, and the US oil inventory change is limited with an emerging supply - surplus pattern [10]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of domestic major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 81.81%, up 1.79% week - on - week and 2.87% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries is 60.00%, down 0.91 percentage points week - on - week. Due to the increased operation of major refineries and reduced self - use in some enterprises, supply has increased. Next week, refinery off - gas is expected to decrease, and domestic LPG production may decline [13]. Demand - Chemical demand is weak. The PDH operating rate is 62.66%, up 1.94% week - on - week but at a historically low level, mainly due to increased production in East China. MTBE production remained flat this week. The capacity utilization rate of alkylation oil samples is 36.30%, up 0.87% week - on - week [16]. Inventory - This week, the number of arriving ships at ports decreased slightly, but the inventory of ships arriving last week was unloaded this week, increasing the unloading volume. Due to the addition of new port sample enterprises by Longzhong, port inventory increased. LPG inventory at refineries decreased slightly. From the perspective of tertiary - station inventory, the storage rates in different regions vary, with the storage rate in North China rising from the bottom, remaining high in South China and along the Yangtze River, increasing in East China, and being neutral in other regions [20]. Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [24] Spread Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [27] Disk Profit Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [30] Spot Profit Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [34] Supply Data - Data on the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG production, and crude oil processing volume are presented. There is also a refinery maintenance plan table showing the maintenance information of multiple domestic refineries from 2025 to 2027 [37][39] PDH Device Maintenance Data - A table shows the maintenance information of PDH devices of multiple enterprises from 2023 to 2026 [41] National Temperature Forecast - Not summarized as only the data source is provided without specific content [45] Inventory Data - Data on the storage rates of tertiary stations, port inventory, and port storage ratios of LPG are presented [48]

Group 1: Energy - Brent crude oil's main contract dropped to $67 per barrel, and WTI crude oil price also fell to around $63 per barrel. Geopolitical events have a phased and intermittent impact on oil prices, and the oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with expected continued volatility [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue a strong trend due to geopolitical uncertainties and a tight supply - demand pattern, while low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from refinery issues, increased supply, and weakening demand during the shipping off - season [21] - The production of asphalt in February is expected to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month, with improved consumption. The price is expected to be strong, and the cracking spread may continue to rise [22] - Urea production is increasing, with some agricultural demand starting and industrial demand declining. The market is expected to oscillate within a range [23] - Methanol's overseas and domestic device operations have changed, with coastal demand weakening and inventory transfer. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is affected by overseas situations [24] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals rebounded on Friday. The US economic data was mixed, and the market is waiting for non - farm payrolls and CPI data to reassess the prospects of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical uncertainties remain, and short - term precious metals are in a volatile stage [2] - Copper prices oscillated at a relatively high level last week. The contract spreads in spring and the second quarter are in a positive market arrangement, and post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure prices and then lead to an upward exploration [3] - Aluminum prices oscillated on Friday night. The spot premium and discount varied in different regions, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating with adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - Zinc prices oscillated at a high level, with a support level at 24,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds is maintained [7] - Lead prices continued to decline. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand weakened, and the market is expected to be weak before the festival, with opportunities for low - buying to be awaited [8] - Nickel prices fell, and the stainless - steel market had weak actual transactions. The inventory of steel mills is low, and traders are reluctant to lower prices, but market sentiment is panicked [9] - Tin prices declined unilaterally last week. It is recommended to trade with a light position this week, and pay attention to inventory changes during and after the festival [10] - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated weakly. The market participation is affected by exchange policies, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [11] - The production capacity of domestic alumina is decreasing, and the balance has improved but the oversupply situation is hard to change. The basis is low, and the futures market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [6] - The price of industrial silicon is under pressure. The implementation of emission reduction goals and the reduction of polysilicon production may affect supply and demand, and the market sentiment is weak [13] - Iron ore prices fell last week. The supply and demand are relatively loose, with a certain improvement expectation on the margin, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [15] - Coke and coking coal prices oscillated downward. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is at a low level. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range [16][17] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The supply and demand of both are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and market expectations [18][19] Group 3: Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon industry is in a new round of in - depth adjustment, with the problem of supply - demand mismatch not resolved. The inventory shows a differentiated performance, and the short - term price may oscillate strongly [12] - The price of styrene is affected by factors such as increased production and post - holiday supply uncertainties [26] - The supply of polypropylene, plastic, and propylene is expected to increase, but the pre - holiday supply is tight. The demand is weakening, and the support from the demand side is further reduced [27] - PVC prices declined, with inventory changes and cost support. The export situation is good, and the price is expected to rise. Caustic soda is running weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [28] - PX and PTA prices oscillated with oil prices. There are opportunities for long - positions in PX in the first half of the year, but the current demand is weak, and the processing margin may be under pressure [29] - Ethylene glycol inventory is increasing, and the short - term trend is oscillatory. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, but the long - term is under pressure [30] - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but the downstream orders are weak. Bottle - chip has a certain improvement in processing margin, and there are opportunities for positive spreads in the medium - term [31] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The market expects changes in the soybean production of Brazil and Argentina and the ending inventory of US soybeans. The short - term soybean meal is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35] - The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as macro risks, export expectations, and policies. It is necessary to pay attention to risk control [36] - The price of soybeans oscillated. The policy promotes the improvement of domestic soybean production, and the market supply has increased marginally [37] - Corn futures are expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to risks [38] - The price of live pigs dropped significantly over the weekend, and the supply pressure is high. The price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [39] - The egg price has the power to repair upwards in the first half of 2026. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the low - point of the spot price around the Spring Festival and then configure long - positions [40] - The price of cotton is expected to oscillate. The global supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is general [41] - The price of sugar is affected by the production progress in India and Thailand and the production expectations in Guangxi. The short - term price faces pressure [42] - The price of apples oscillated. The market focus is on the demand side, and the high purchase price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the de - stocking speed [43] - The price of wood is at a low level. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is recommended to wait and see [44] - The price of pulp declined last week. The inventory is increasing, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [45] Group 5: Others - The container shipping index (European line) oscillated last week. The pre - holiday market is stable, and the post - holiday market has some positive expectations. The near - month contracts are expected to turn to an oscillatory pattern, and the far - month contracts may be under pressure [20] - The A - share market continued to decline with reduced trading volume, and the stock index futures contracts all closed down. The market may recover this week, and there may be structural rotations [46] - The bond market has opportunities under the influence of risk - aversion sentiment. The trend of TL is unclear, while other varieties are relatively strong [47]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and sanctions impacting Iranian oil exports [2][3][35] - WTI crude oil for March closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 3.41% for the week, while Brent crude for April settled at $68.05 per barrel, down 2.48% [2][35] - The US has imposed sanctions on multiple entities and individuals related to Iranian oil trade, aiming to significantly reduce Iran's illegal oil and petrochemical exports [3][35] Group 2 - The EU is proposing a new round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a complete ban on maritime services for Russian oil and restrictions on LNG tanker services [3][35] - Venezuela's oil exports to the US surged threefold in January, reaching an average of 284,000 barrels per day, driven by relaxed US policies [4][36] - The US oil production has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, at 13.22 million barrels per day, due to severe winter storms [5][37] Group 3 - Domestic demand for refined oil has seen a price increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [6][38] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, with investors likely to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the holiday season [6][38] - The overall oil market is influenced by both geopolitical narratives and supply dynamics, with potential for significant price volatility [6][38]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Methanol - Current methanol has priced in a considerable number of negative factors. Overseas geopolitics may still fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2]. 2.2 Urea - The situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expectation of a recovery in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations for urea are approaching. It is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [3]. 2.3 Crude Oil - Current oil prices have risen to a certain extent and have priced in a relatively high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. Considering the previous prediction that Venezuela's production increase will exceed expectations and OPEC's subsequent production increase and recovery expectations, medium - term layout should be the main operation idea, but it is necessary to wait for the end of the geopolitical situation to eliminate tail risks [8]. 2.4 Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate significantly following the commodity market. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Short positions can be taken when RU2605 is below 16,000, and the position of buying the main NR contract and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. 2.5 PVC - Fundamentally, enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The reduction in supply is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. In general, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Short - term electricity price expectations, production capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment support PVC. As the industry enters a very low - profit range, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in production capacity and production [16]. 2.6 Pure Benzene & Styrene - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene have declined, and the basis has widened. The spot and futures prices of styrene have declined, and the basis has weakened. Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is relatively high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The production of pure benzene at a low level has rebounded, and the supply is still relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation in the supply side has increased, and the production of styrene has fluctuated at a low level. Styrene port inventory has continued to increase. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products in the demand side has increased. The port inventory of pure benzene has decreased from a high level, and the port inventory of styrene has continued to decrease. Since the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. 2.7 Polyethylene - The futures price has risen. OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for downward PE valuation. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high in the same period, reducing the pressure on the market. In the supply side, only one BASF plant has been put into production in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. In the seasonal off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films in the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate is declining [23]. 2.8 Polypropylene - The futures price has risen. In the cost side, the EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventories will slightly decrease, and the oversupply situation may ease. In the supply side, there are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, reducing pressure. In the demand side, the operating rate of downstream industries fluctuates seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period. When the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year, the market price may bottom out. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production capacity mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. 2.9 PX - Currently, PX production remains at a high level, and there are many maintenance activities in the downstream PTA industry, with the overall operating rate at a relatively low level. It is expected that PX will maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation center has risen, and short - process profits are also high. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure of both PX and downstream PTA is relatively strong, with a good medium - term outlook. The repair of PTA processing fees has also further expanded the PXN space. For the subsequent valuation to rise further, it is necessary for the downstream polyester production start - up and raw material plant maintenance plans after the Spring Festival to meet expectations. Medium - term attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips following crude oil [28]. 2.10 PTA - In the future, the supply side will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber will gradually decline due to the off - season. PTA will enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage. In terms of valuation, PTA processing fees are expected to remain high and stable, and PXN has回调 to a neutral level. There is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Medium - term attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips and grasping the rhythm [30]. 2.11 Ethylene Glycol - In terms of industry fundamentals, the number of overseas plant maintenance activities is higher than that in the fourth quarter, but the decline in domestic maintenance is still insufficient. The current overall operating rate is still relatively high. The expected import volume in February will decrease slightly, but due to the downstream off - season, the port stock - building pressure is still high. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of stock - building and high operating rates. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. The current valuation is relatively low compared to the same period. Tensions in the Iranian situation and the rebound in coal prices support its valuation in the short term, and there are increasing unexpected production cut news under the low profit of oil - chemical industry, so there is a risk of rebound [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea - **Market Information**: In Shandong, the price changed by 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Shanxi, the price did not change; in Jiangsu, the price changed by 10 yuan/ton; in the Northeast, the price did not change. The overall basis was reported at - 16 yuan/ton. The main futures contract price changed by - 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1776 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: In Jiangsu, the price changed by - 45 yuan/ton; in Lunan, the price changed by - 2.5 yuan/ton; in Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, the price did not change. The main futures contract price changed by 6 yuan/ton, reported at 2244 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 5 yuan [5]. 3.3 Singapore ESG Oil Products - **Inventory Data**: Gasoline inventory increased by 0.62 million barrels to 17.53 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.68%; diesel inventory increased by 0.33 million barrels to 8.93 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; fuel oil inventory increased by 4.26 million barrels to 24.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 21.37%; total refined oil inventory increased by 5.21 million barrels to 50.65 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [6]. 3.4 Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed up 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22%, reported at 2831 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46%, reported at 3298 yuan/ton [7]. 3.5 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed up 1.7 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.37%, reported at 465.4 yuan/barrel; the main high - sulfur refined oil futures contract... (not fully described in the text) [8]. 3.6 Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market is priced by funds, with a low correlation with fundamentals. Bulls are bullish due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations; bears are bearish due to weak demand. As of January 29, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.41%, 0.29 percentage points lower than the previous week and 54.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of all - steel tires was under pressure. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 75.35%, 0.08 percentage points higher than the previous week and 53.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 25, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 127.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 tons, a decrease of 0.17%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 84.7 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 42.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. As of January 30, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an increase of 1.88%. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15,150 (- 100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1935 (- 20) US dollars; STR20 mixed was 1935 (- 20) US dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9950 (- 400) yuan; cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12300 (- 100) yuan [10][11][12]. 3.7 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 71 yuan, reported at 4981 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 90) yuan/ton. The basis was - 221 (- 19) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (- 4) yuan/ton. In the cost side, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 698 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 589 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; among them, the calcium carbide - based process was 80.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the ethylene - based process was 75.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [15]. 3.8 Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In the cost side, the price of pure benzene in East China was 6070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures side, the spot price of styrene was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton; the basis was 175 yuan/ton, a weakening of 36 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 171.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 51.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.6 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. In the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. In the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%; the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [19]. 3.9 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6812 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 137 yuan/ton, a weakening of 100 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons; the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 52 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [22]. 3.10 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6715 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis was 24 yuan/ton, a weakening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons; the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons; the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was 121 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton [24]. 3.11 PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 74 yuan, reported at 7172 yuan; the PX CFR rose 6 US dollars, reported at 898 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, the basis was - 59 yuan (- 12), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan (+ 12). In terms of PX production, the production in China was 89.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the Asian production was 82.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Regarding the plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and the production of Fujian United Petrochemical fluctuated. The PTA production was 77.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. Regarding the plants, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 40.8 tons of PX to

Market Overview - The recent oil market has shown wide fluctuations, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][43]. - The EIA data indicated a significant drop in US oil production due to the winter storm "Fein," with production falling to 13.215 million barrels per day [6][44]. Price Data - As of February 6, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $2.64 (-3.73%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $63.55 per barrel, down $1.66 (-2.55%); Dubai crude futures settled at $67.57 per barrel, down $0.29 (-0.43%) [6][44]. - The price fluctuations are attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the impact of the winter storm on production and demand [6][44]. Geopolitical Factors - The US-Iran negotiations have been a focal point, with Iran maintaining two key red lines: opposing the removal of sanctions and excluding missile programs from negotiations. The outcome of these talks could significantly impact oil prices [5][43]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, with both sides continuing high-intensity attacks, particularly on energy infrastructure, contributing to market volatility [5][43]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial oil inventories by 3.455 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, indicating mixed demand trends [6][28]. - The downstream sector experienced a significant increase in refined product demand week-on-week, although gasoline demand saw a decline due to consumer behavior influenced by weather concerns [6][28]. Refinery Operations - The capacity utilization rate for domestic refineries was reported at 81.81%, with independent refineries at 60%, affected by maintenance and external sanctions [72]. - Processing margins for main refineries were at 770.95 yuan per ton, while independent refineries saw a decrease in profit margins by 13.85% [72].

记者在首府努克采访的几天里，明显感受到了这种变化。过去，当地民众见面时，谈论的多是天气、海 冰厚度和捕捞季节。而现在，"美国那边又说了什么"已成为日常话题。语气不算激烈，但透着挥之不去 的不安。 这种不安，正在慢慢改变格陵兰岛人的生活方式。有人开始在家中准备应急食品和常用药品；格陵兰岛 自治政府也罕见地提醒居民，留意可能出现的断电、断网情况；电视和社交媒体上，与美国有关的消息 反复滚动；一些商铺则在门口挂起"格陵兰岛不出售"的标语。 在努克机场工作的当地居民西克宁努瓦克告诉记者，近一个月来，她几乎每天都能看到来自不同国家的 军人抵达机场，这令她格外不安，也让当地气氛更加紧张。 "最开始是震惊，接着是害怕，现在更多的是愤怒。"机场空中交通管制员奥勒·约特这样描述过去一年 的心理变化。他回忆，大约一年前，特朗普的儿子到访努克，向路人分发印有"让美国再次伟大"字样的 帽子。许多人以为那只是"一场拙劣的政治表演……后来我们才意识到，他们并不是在开玩笑"。 学生马利克·谢贝尔告诉记者，一开始，他并没有把特朗普的言论当成真正的威胁。"那时候听起来更像 是疯话。"谢贝尔说，"但当他说到'吞并'，我们突然意识到，这件事也许真 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the future week, asphalt prices will mainly fluctuate with the cost - end crude oil. The main factor influencing crude oil is geopolitics, but small - scale geopolitical frictions cannot reverse the weak fundamentals and oversupply situation of crude oil. [1] - Due to the continuous slump in domestic diesel prices and the large inventory pressure of refined oil in some Shandong refineries, the suppression of asphalt by full - storage may lead to a smooth decline in prices when the rigid demand after the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations. [1] - As the holiday approaches, the trading enthusiasm of asphalt may gradually fade, and investors need to pay attention to position risk control before the festival. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As the holiday approaches, the spot - end has "celebrated the New Year in advance", and the demand has dropped to zero. The previous continuous premium increase in the futures market has not been fully followed by the spot market. [1] - The increase in the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has led some Shandong refineries to switch to other heavy - oil resources. The so - called raw material shortage is not the key factor restricting the refinery's operating rate, but it does have a certain impact on the long - term cost valuation. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The update of the basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations is suspended due to compliance requirements. The update of the recent strategy review is also suspended. [10] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the coming month is 2800 - 3150 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.63% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.76%. [10] - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short asphalt futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce capital costs. [10] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy asphalt futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums. [10] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East have increased the upward elasticity of crude oil prices, and the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has risen. [11][13] - **Negative Information**: No specific negative information was provided in the text. - **Spot Transaction Information**: This week, asphalt prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the futures market were favorable, and there was some rush - work demand in the south. However, in the north, the rigid demand stagnated, and the overall sales volume decreased. [15][16] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Geopolitical situation changes, including the latest shipping and arrival logistics of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil, the export and shipment of Russian crude oil, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the changes in floating storage inventory at sea. [17][22] - The progress and results of the subsequent US - Iran negotiations. [22] - The end of the asphalt consumption peak season, with demand under pressure. [17] - The US may cause the geopolitical premium of crude oil to decline by urging Ukraine to resolve the battlefield issue. [17] - The US may issue more threats of imposing tariffs under the pretext of national security. [17] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the asphalt futures price showed a volatile trend, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key asphalt seats has decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future market. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. [18] - **Basis Structure**: This week, the asphalt basis structure weakened, with the futures market at a premium. Frequent geopolitical disturbances supported market activity through low - price contract resources despite weak demand. [21] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The absolute price of asphalt jumped due to geopolitical factors, but the calendar spread structure remained in a weak C - structure, which is in line with the characteristics of the approaching off - season. [39] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Coking Material Market**: As of February 5th (compared with January 29th), the price of Shandong coking materials increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3650 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the refined oil market was positive, and the replenishment enthusiasm of middle - and lower - stream users was high, leading to a slight rebound in coking material prices. [43] - **Asphalt Market**: The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton. Although the previous strong crude oil price supported the asphalt futures market, the weak demand led to few spot transactions. In the short term, the off - season demand and the planned resumption of production of some refineries may lead to a further decline in asphalt prices. [43] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 395 - 405 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3180 - 3260 yuan/ton. Although the price of South Korean asphalt in February increased compared with January, it still has a price advantage, and the import volume in January and February remained high. [52] - **Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Markets**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 490 - 510 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3870 - 4030 yuan/ton; the CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 465 - 475 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3680 - 3760 yuan/ton. The price increase in the Singapore market was driven by crude oil and fuel oil, but the trading atmosphere has cooled down due to the decrease in rush - work demand. [52] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic Production**: In 2025, China's asphalt production was 28.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Among them, the production of PetroChina refineries increased by 33% year - on - year, Sinopec's decreased by 12% year - on - year, CNOOC's increased by 13% year - on - year, and local refineries' increased by 19% year - on - year. [55] - **Import**: The import volume of South Korean and other regions' asphalt remained at a relatively high level, and the price of some brands' March shipments continued to rise. [52] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Most regions' demand has decreased due to temperature and the approaching holiday, and the operating rate of modified asphalt plants has continued to decline. [80] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast, Northwest, and North China continued to store winter - storage resources; the inventory in the South China and Southwest regions decreased steadily due to some rush - work demand; the inventory in the Yangtze River Delta and Central China regions fluctuated little. [97] 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet from January to December 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes. [119] 3.5.5 Weather Outlook In the next 10 days (February 8 - 17th), most of the regions in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, southern China, and the eastern part of the southwestern region will experience precipitation, which is higher than the same period in previous years. [120]