Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical dynamics surrounding Russia, Europe, and China are complex and uncertain, particularly in the context of potential leadership changes in Russia and the implications for international relations [1][2]. Group 1: Russia's Stance and Strategy - Russia has consistently emphasized the importance of security and territorial integrity since Putin's rise to power in 2000, indicating that core interests will not easily change regardless of leadership [2]. - Medvedev has stated that Russia is not interested in war with Europe, but warns that misjudgments by European nations could lead to severe consequences [2]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted over three years, with Russia's economy enduring sanctions yet remaining resilient, highlighting its ability to navigate through adversity [2]. Group 2: Energy and Economic Relations - In 2021, Europe relied on Russia for 40% of its natural gas, which is projected to drop to 10% by 2024, yet the existing pipeline infrastructure still connects the two regions [2]. - The trade volume between China and Russia is expected to exceed $240 billion in 2024, showcasing a strong economic partnership that benefits both nations [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - Medvedev's comments reflect a growing assertiveness in Russian foreign policy, emphasizing that a change in leadership will not resolve deep-rooted conflicts between Russian security needs and European values [4]. - The European Union has spent over a thousand billion euros in aid to Ukraine, leading to rising energy prices and social unrest within Europe, indicating a challenging economic environment [4]. - The rise of nationalism and far-right movements in Europe is causing economic strain, with European companies facing high operational costs and increasing unemployment [5]. Group 4: China-Russia Relations - The relationship between China and Russia is characterized by mutual interests rather than personal ties, with both countries collaborating on strategic stability and anti-hegemonic efforts [5][6]. - Cultural exchanges between China and Russia are thriving, with increased tourism and educational interactions, reinforcing the bilateral relationship [6]. - Medvedev predicts that Europe's optimistic expectations regarding Russia will be shattered, leading to further difficulties for European nations [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $4002.50 per ounce, with a recent increase of nearly 2.4% due to the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut, which has enhanced gold's attractiveness [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 0.25%, aligning with market expectations, but there are differing opinions on the implications of this move [2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against overestimating the likelihood of a December rate cut, indicating that further reductions are not guaranteed, which has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold tested the 3915 area before rising, breaking through resistance levels at 3975-80 and 4030, closing with a bullish engulfing pattern [4] - The market is expected to experience volatility, with key support levels at 3960-55 and 3920-15, while a break below 3915-20 could open up further downside potential [4] - The short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at 4030-4060 and support levels at 3970-3940 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.64 per barrel, up nearly 1%, while U.S. crude oil futures rose to $60.88 per barrel, also up nearly 1% [5] - Market sentiment was influenced by geopolitical news regarding potential U.S. military action against Venezuela, which caused significant price fluctuations [5] - Analysts project global oil demand growth between 650,000 to 2 million barrels per day, primarily driven by economic growth in Asian countries [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - Oil prices have shown a recovery trend, with three consecutive bullish candles observed, indicating a shift from previous downward momentum [6] - The short-term price range is expected to oscillate between $59.60 and $61.00, with a higher probability of breaking upward [6] - The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips and consider selling on rebounds, with resistance at $62.0-63.0 and support at $59.5-58.5 [6]

Core Insights - The presentation will cover Netcompany's strategy, business model, and financial performance, particularly focusing on synergy effects from a recent acquisition and long-term targets [2]. Group 1 - The agenda includes discussions on the strategy and business model of Netcompany, followed by financial insights from the CFO [2]. - The presentation aims to foster a dialogue, allowing for questions after each segment [2]. - The session will be conducted at a high pace while emphasizing essential facts [4]. Group 2 - The current global landscape is influenced by two major forces, one of which is geopolitical factors [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the meeting between China and the US in South Korea on October 30 is the discussion of practical topics such as combating fentanyl, adjusting tariffs, and postponing rare earth regulations, which has significant implications for Europe [1][3] - The consensus reached during the meeting appears substantial but lacks detailed actionable rules, indicating that the underlying deep-seated differences remain unresolved [3][13] - The meeting signals a potential shift away from the golden era of free trade, as both nations continue to utilize tariffs and administrative interventions as tools of pressure [13][20] Group 2 - China's response to US tariff pressures has evolved from passive to more assertive, utilizing rare earth export controls and agricultural trade countermeasures, showcasing its newfound confidence [7][9] - The reliance of European industries on Chinese rare earth supplies highlights the geopolitical leverage China holds, as disruptions could lead to production delays and increased costs for European companies [9][11] - Europe faces a dilemma in balancing its economic interests with China against its security dependence on the US, complicating its strategic positioning in the ongoing geopolitical landscape [11][18] Group 3 - The EU's push for strategic autonomy, including the introduction of the "Critical Raw Materials Act," aims to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths and establish stable supply chains [15][20] - Achieving consensus among EU member states on strategic decisions is challenging due to varying national interests, which complicates the EU's ability to navigate the US-China rivalry effectively [17][18] - The future of Europe's position in the evolving global trade landscape hinges on its ability to implement strategic autonomy and reduce dual dependencies on both the US and China [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Long - term strategic value of gold remains unchanged due to global currency easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction; short - term geopolitical issues cause small price increases [3] - Long - term positive outlook for copper due to strategic value, but short - term high - level risks are significant [6][7] - Zinc is under pressure in the short - term with sufficient macro - level positive factors realized, and in the long - term, supply increases while demand decreases [10][11] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short - term, supported by terminal consumption in the peak season [2] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to sufficient domestic supply and inventory accumulation, with only some support from the peak consumption season of nickel sulfate [2] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show no obvious contradictions, and it can be treated with a long - position approach in the short - term due to optimistic market sentiment [2] - For polysilicon, positive policies boost market sentiment, and long - positions can be held [2] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have improved in the short - term, with obvious inventory reduction and strong terminal demand, so long - positions can be held [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Situation**: After the G2 meeting, short - term geopolitical issues lead to a small increase in gold prices. Trump's support rate has declined, geopolitical issues are recurring, and the Senate has passed a resolution to terminate Trump's tariff policy [3] - **Investment Strategy**: Long - term strategic value is high, and long - positions can be held. In the short - term, entry can be considered when prices stop falling, with a support level of 910 for domestic gold [3][4] Silver - **Market Situation**: The short - term squeeze event has ended, and silver follows the trend of gold. In the long - term, global policy stimulates demand, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Long - positions can be held for the long - term, with a strong support level at 11200 [2] Copper - **Market Situation**: High - level retracement after the G2 meeting. Trump has revoked emission restrictions on copper smelters, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. High prices suppress demand [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term: stop profit on long - positions and wait for prices to stabilize. Long - term: strategic long - positions can be held. Short - term, pay attention to the range of 84500 - 88500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10500 - 11200 dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - **Market Situation**: Pressure on prices due to sufficient supply of zinc concentrates and weak demand in the peak season. The domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and overseas soft - squeeze risks persist [10] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, it is under pressure; in the long - term, it is a short - position allocation. Pay attention to the range of 22000 - 22500 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2950 - 3050 dollars/ton for London zinc [11] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: High - level consolidation, with alumina showing a slight stabilization trend. Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, and domestic consumption in the peak season provides support [12][14] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, take profit on long - positions when prices are high. Pay attention to the operating range of 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [15] Nickel - **Market Situation**: Rebound is restricted due to inventory accumulation. Overseas supply disturbances are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is increasing. Stainless steel inventory removal pressure is high [16][18] - **Investment Strategy**: Sell on rebounds. Pay attention to the operating range of 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton for nickel [19] Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: Fundamentals show no obvious contradictions. Northern production starts to slow down, and southern production is affected by the dry season. Downstream demand is weak, but market sentiment is optimistic in the short - term [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - positions in the short - term, with a range of 9100 - 9300 [2] Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: Positive policies boost market sentiment, with a contrast between strong expectations and weak reality [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Hold long - positions [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Fundamentals have improved in the short - term, with continuous inventory reduction and strong terminal demand. Supply is still growing, but there are some production restrictions in Sichuan [20][22] - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - positions in the range of 82800 - 85500 [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly strong" rating to precious metals, expecting the price of London gold to range between $3,900 - $4,200 per ounce and London silver between $47 - $52 per ounce [3] Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US meeting released positive signals, easing trade tensions and reducing safe-haven buying. However, it did not change the medium-term logic of easing and credit contraction. The Fed's policy combination is "loose with stability", which suppresses short-term bullish sentiment on the interest rate side while maintaining support on the liquidity side [1][3] - The improvement in the trade environment boosts manufacturing expectations, and the relatively tight liquidity in the London market makes silver's performance relatively strong. If the subsequent Sino-US negotiations continue to improve, the recovery of industrial demand will drive the silver price to strengthen further [3] - If the negotiation results are successfully implemented but the macro data is weak, precious metals will maintain a shockingly strong pattern [3] Summary by Directory Key Information - The results of the Sino-US leaders' meeting are positive. Trump said he would lower tariffs on fentanyl-related goods and discuss the export of NVIDIA AI chips. The two sides reached a consensus on rare earth supply and agricultural product procurement, and market risk appetite rebounded [2] - The high-level talks focused on supply chain and investment issues. China proposed to selectively open investment areas, and Trump said he was "willing to consider resuming investment cooperation in non-sensitive industries" [2] - Geopolitical issues are still sensitive. The US refused to make substantial concessions in the security field but will maintain strategic ambiguity. Although it is difficult to form a "big deal" in this meeting, it helps to control conflict risks [2] - Gold ETFs had the largest single-day outflow in nearly half a year, indicating that institutions took short-term profits [2] Price Logic - Gold: The Sino-US meeting released a signal of easing, suppressing safe-haven buying in the short term. The Fed's policy combination is "loose with stability", which suppresses short-term bullish sentiment on the interest rate side while maintaining support on the liquidity side. Although some funds took profits at high levels, central bank gold purchases and fiscal deficit expansion still provide medium-term support [3] - Silver: The improvement in the trade environment boosts manufacturing expectations, and the relatively tight liquidity in the London market makes silver's performance relatively strong. If the subsequent Sino-US negotiations continue to improve, the recovery of industrial demand will drive the silver price to strengthen further. However, considering the high volatility of precious metals, short-term technical corrections need to be guarded against [3] Market Performance - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was not detailed; the commodity index was 2,250.38, down 0.57%; the commodity 20 index was 2,544.78, down 0.52%; the industrial product index was 2,246.75, down 0.87% [42] - The precious metal index was 3,210.36, with a daily decline of 0.13%, a decline of 2.14% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.77% in the past month, and an increase of 45.11% since the beginning of the year [44]

Core Viewpoint - The merger between Wingtech Technology and Nexperia has evolved from a successful business transaction into a critical lesson for Chinese companies aiming to expand internationally, highlighting that commercial success alone does not guarantee the success of cross-border mergers in the new global landscape [5][6]. Event Review - On October 12, Wingtech Technology announced that the Dutch government had issued a directive on September 30 to freeze the assets and intellectual property of its subsidiary Nexperia for one year, marking a significant escalation in a multi-year cross-border merger struggle [10][12]. - The timeline of events includes the acquisition of Nexperia from NXP in 2017, the complete acquisition by Wingtech from 2018 to 2020, and the subsequent acquisition of Newport Wafer Fab in 2021, which triggered national security reviews in the UK [12][13]. Governance Traps and Strategic Misjudgments - **Trap One**: The commitment to "independent operation" was perceived as a "covert takeover" due to changes in the power structure among key executives, leading to a loss of trust [17][18]. - **Strategic Insight**: Governance transparency is prioritized over control, emphasizing the need for clear processes in executive changes to maintain stakeholder trust [18]. - **Response Strategy**: Establish a governance structure that includes local independent directors to advise on decisions involving core technologies and local security [20]. - **Trap Two**: Financial success masked cultural integration failures, with the pandemic-induced demand surge temporarily alleviating internal issues [23][24]. - **Strategic Insight**: A dynamic communication mechanism with stakeholders is essential to address internal vulnerabilities [25]. - **Response Strategy**: Regular dialogue with all key stakeholders, including local unions and government departments, is crucial for building trust [28]. - **Trap Three**: The production of legacy chips triggered national security concerns, illustrating the broadening definition of "national security" in geopolitical contexts [29][30]. - **Strategic Insight**: Redefining "national security" is necessary, as it now encompasses critical infrastructure and core technologies [31]. - **Response Strategy**: Conduct geopolitical pressure tests during merger planning to assess potential impacts and develop contingency plans [32]. Summary and Path Forward - The Wingtech-Nexperia case underscores the extreme risks associated with geopolitical tensions, suggesting that future winners will be those companies that can balance financial acumen with geopolitical awareness [37]. - Companies must integrate their governance structures with national strategies, leveraging policy financial support and industry alliances to build systemic risk resilience [38]. - A clear action plan for global-minded enterprises includes elevating governance design to a strategic level, viewing stakeholder communication as a core competency, and conducting thorough geopolitical risk assessments [39][40].

Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend with all three major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.73%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.16%, and ChiNext Index down 1.84% [1] Sector Performance - Energy metals, steel, and battery sectors showed strong gains, while gaming, power equipment, and coal sectors faced significant declines [1] Fund Flows - Major capital inflows were observed in energy metals, steel, and insurance sectors [1] ETF Performance - Rare metals, oil and gas, and battery-related ETFs performed well, likely driven by recent news [2] - The cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. and the suspension of a 24% reciprocal tariff for one year may positively impact market sentiment [2] Strategic Asset Insights - Small metals are viewed as having irreplaceable strategic uses, leading to an increase in overseas valuations that may elevate domestic strategic asset values [2] - The potential for a valuation reset across all domestic strategic assets is anticipated, not limited to rare earths [2] Oil and Gas Sector Outlook - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term outlook for oil supply and demand remains positive, with a focus on major oil companies and oil service sectors [3] - A potential increase in oil prices could benefit upstream assets, while improved demand and supply management may favor midstream refining [3] Battery Industry Trends - The battery sector is benefiting from dual demand drivers in power and energy storage, with production capacity currently unable to meet demand [4] - Lithium battery demand is projected to grow by 40% for the year, with significant increases in global energy storage battery demand expected to reach 550 GWh by 2025, a 70% year-on-year increase [4] - Price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate are anticipated, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [4]

Core Points - The Netherlands government signaled a desire to negotiate with China regarding ASML, but this was met with a unified hardline stance from the EU, particularly Germany and France, indicating a collective approach to counter China [1][8][24] - China responded firmly to European pressure, stating that if Germany does not ease restrictions on high-tech exports to China, it will not relax its own export controls on rare earths [1][18] Group 1: Semiconductor and Technology Cooperation - In June, the Netherlands announced restrictions on ASML's exports of advanced lithography machines to China under U.S. pressure, severely impacting Sino-Dutch technological cooperation [3] - China retaliated by implementing export controls on critical metals gallium and germanium, essential for semiconductor manufacturing, with over 90% of gallium and 60% of germanium sourced from China [3][5] Group 2: European Industry Impact - The new export controls from ASML took effect on September 1, and by December 1, high-purity graphite was added to the restricted list, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Europe's dependency on these materials during its green transition [5][10] - Germany's automotive industry, already suffering from chip shortages, faced production halts, indicating significant distress among major manufacturers like Mercedes, BMW, and Volkswagen [6][10] Group 3: Political Dynamics and Internal EU Tensions - The EU summit on October 23 marked a turning point, with German Chancellor Merz expressing a desire for a mutually acceptable solution while simultaneously criticizing China's rare earth controls, revealing internal contradictions within the EU [8][10] - France's President Macron suggested the EU should consider all retaliatory measures against China, while the European Commission President indicated readiness to use all available tools, reflecting a unified yet conflicted stance [8][10] Group 4: Economic Realities and Strategic Dependencies - Despite political rhetoric, European industries are increasingly aware of their reliance on Chinese resources, with reports indicating that Germany has submitted a "white list" to China for sectors like automotive and electronics, seeking to restore rare earth supplies [10][18] - The EU's internal discussions reveal a struggle to balance political posturing against the economic realities of dependence on Chinese markets and resources, with many companies reconsidering their supply chains [16][22] Group 5: Broader Implications for Sino-European Relations - The ongoing tensions over semiconductors and rare earths reflect deeper geopolitical and economic struggles, with European politicians exhibiting a duality of wanting to be tough on China while needing to maintain economic ties [20][24] - China's clear stance emphasizes that cooperation must be based on mutual respect and equality, rejecting one-sided benefits while asserting its position in the global supply chain [18][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term macro is favorable, but the actual impact may be limited. The market is currently driven by short - term geopolitical factors, but the medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the excess supply in the fundamental supply - demand situation. It is necessary to pay attention to the time when the short - term geopolitical sentiment cools down and the market switches back to the fundamental logic [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: After the US Treasury Department's sanctions on two Russian oil companies last week, the crude oil market rebounded. However, the actual impact of the sanctions remains to be seen, and it is expected to be limited. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure due to the excess supply in the fundamental situation. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 471 [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 471 level [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The rebound of crude oil last week had little impact on styrene. The supply - demand logic and expectations of styrene itself dominate the market. With the continuous commissioning of new plants and slow demand growth, the inventory of styrene has been accumulating, leading to a risk of price collapse. The strategy is to hold short positions [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6630 level [6]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Tire demand is stable, but the inventory pressure and high raw material prices have led to low inventory - building willingness. There is a certain bullish driving force in the short term due to continuous inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the inventory - building pressure in the peak season in the medium term. The strategy is to stop profit on short positions [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure has turned bullish. The short - term support is at the 15240 level [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The high supply pressure of butadiene rubber continues, and the inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the continuous downward driving force brought by the loosening of the cost side. The strategy is to hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 11000 [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure of butadiene rubber are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 11000 level [13]. (5) PX - Logic: The high profit of PX drives high - level production, and the supply is sufficient while the demand is stable. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. The lower support is at the 6570 level [16]. (6) PTA - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4580 level [20]. (7) PP - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the high supply pressure of PP remains. The demand recovery in the peak season is limited, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to hold the short positions replenished yesterday, with a stop - loss reference of 6740 [25]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6740 level [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Due to seasonal factors, there is a certain logic for going long on the methanol 01 contract in the future, but the short - term long - entry time has not arrived. The domestic supply and demand have both weakened, and the port inventory is still at a historical high. Attention should be paid to the technical signal of whether the market can break through the short - term pressure level and the time of gas restrictions in Iran. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously, with a stop - profit at the 2300 level. For the hedging strategy, methanol can be used as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure level [27][29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and short - term structures of methanol are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 2300 level [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: The weekly production has decreased slightly due to maintenance, but the overall supply of PVC remains high. The domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has accumulated to the highest level in history. The high - production, high - inventory, and weak - demand structure makes it difficult for the price to rise. The strategy is to hold short positions [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [31]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply of ethylene glycol remains high, and the inventory has started to accumulate. The previous support from low inventory has disappeared, and the supply - demand weakening expectation is being realized. The strategy is to wait and see [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of ethylene glycol is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4065 level [34]. (11) Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure of plastic has increased. The demand in the peak season is weak, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the cost - side collapse logic brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to wait and see [39]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 6955 level [39]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of soda ash continues to worsen. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle [43]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of soda ash is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [43]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The production of caustic soda remains at a high level, and the supply pressure has increased due to the commissioning of new plants. The profit of the downstream alumina industry is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force is still weak under the high - inventory situation. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit before the holiday [45]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of caustic soda is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 2400 level [45].