Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract rising 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The industry is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased. The PMI is declining, and the copper market is in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The processing fee is recovering slowly, and CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [4][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper's main contract rose 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors from the Russia - Ukraine war and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. LME copper inventory was 213,400 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,330 tons to 171,611 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2023, the copper market is in a tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2024. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory remains at a high level, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is recovering slowly [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific information provided. - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific information provided.

大宗系列|化工：大投产后聚酯产业链表 现分化，PTA 供需压力大 专题报告 2025 年 2 月 26 日 主要内容： 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司 研究发展部 翁欣 wengx@cspengyuan.com 2024 年对聚酯产业链而言，是充满挑战的一年。自 2021 年以来，波澜壮阔的 投产周期逐渐走向尾声，上下游各环节均从新增产能的投放转向存量产能的再 平衡，行业调整的步伐将加快。从价格走势来看，各品种整体波动率有所下降， 然而上下游、品种间出现了明显的分化。在上半年原油价格波动有限，需求保 持平稳的情况下，以 PX、PTA 为代表的上游品种效益相对稳定。下半年，随着 海外原油、汽油价格的走弱，成本端快速下降，加上内需没有出现超预期的表 现，PX、PTA 价格随之大幅下跌；乙二醇在 2024 年迎来了供需格局的边际改 善， PX 产量增长，对外依存度下降，供需压力偏大。2025 年 PX 投产放缓，供需寻 求平衡。PX 仍旧处在投产真空期，另外 2024 年 PX 行业产能率已经提升至较高 水平（86%），考虑到目前行业的低利润格局以及年内会有常规的检修损失量， 因此预计 2025 年 PX 的供应增量 ...