Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing geopolitical uncertainty due to speculations about potential U.S. military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, leading to significant declines in U.S. stock index futures, with the Dow futures dropping by 400 points and Nasdaq futures falling over 1% [1] - Reports indicate that U.S. officials are preparing for possible strikes against Iran, with Trump publicly considering joining Israel in an attack, which could escalate tensions in the oil-rich Middle East [1][2] - Trump is weighing the pros and cons of bombing Iran's Fordow nuclear facility, which is seen as critical to Iran's nuclear capabilities, and has not yet made a final decision [2][3] Group 2 - The White House has stated that Trump will decide within two weeks whether to attack Iran, emphasizing that diplomatic options are still on the table [2] - Any nuclear agreement with Iran must include provisions to prevent uranium enrichment and the acquisition of nuclear weapons, as Iran is reportedly closer than ever to developing a nuclear weapon [3] - Following the discussions about potential military action, international crude oil futures saw a near 3% increase, while U.S. stock futures continued to decline [3] Group 3 - Trump has criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming it has cost the U.S. "thousands of billions" and calling for a reduction of 2.5 percentage points [6][7] - Trump expressed his frustration on social media, labeling Powell as one of the most destructive figures in the government and highlighting the need for the U.S. to follow Europe in rate cuts [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the potential for U.S. military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, which has led to significant declines in U.S. stock index futures [4][8] - U.S. stock index futures saw a sharp drop, with the Dow futures down by 400 points and the Nasdaq futures falling over 1%, reflecting market concerns over rising oil prices and inflation due to geopolitical tensions [4][6] - Oil prices increased by nearly 3% during the trading session, indicating market reactions to the potential for military action and its implications for oil supply [6][8] Group 2 - Former President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him "destructive" and suggesting that interest rates should be lowered by 250 basis points to alleviate financial burdens on the Biden administration [11][12] - Trump expressed frustration over Powell's decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, which has remained unchanged since December of the previous year [11][12] - The article highlights that Trump's ongoing criticism of Powell is not surprising, as he has consistently called for lower interest rates, contrasting the Fed's actions with those of European central banks that have implemented multiple rate cuts [12]

英国央行：将继续对经济和地缘政治环境中日益增加的不确定性保持高度敏感。 ...

金十数据6月19日讯，爱尔兰央行连续第二个季度下调经济前景，地缘政治不确定性加剧，给这个开放 的小经济体带来压力。根据爱尔兰央行的季度经济公报，修正后的国内需求（MDD）目前预计到2025 年将增长2%，到2026年平均增长2.1%，上个季度的预测分别为2.7%和2.4%。该指标比GDP更准确的衡 量爱尔兰经济增长。预测下修正描绘了一幅新的图景，即美国总统特朗普的贸易战可能对爱尔兰的经济 模式造成极度不利的影响。该国财政严重依赖苹果(AAPL.O)和辉瑞(PFE.N)等美国跨国公司的外国直接 投资，而这些公司受到全球贸易波动的影响。 不确定性加剧 爱尔兰央行再次下调经济预期 ...

摘要国际黄金周二（6月17日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，国际黄金收报3387.58美元/盎司，上涨3.04美元或 0.09%，日内最高上探3403.08美元/盎司，最低触及3365.79美元/盎司。 国际黄金周二（6月17日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，国际黄金收报3387.58美元/盎司，上涨3.04美元或 0.09%，日内最高上探3403.08美元/盎司，最低触及3365.79美元/盎司。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至6月17日，黄金ETF持有量为945.94吨，较上一交易日 增持4.01吨。 黄金ETF最新持仓数据： 【要闻回顾】 中东局势的持续恶化无疑是近期黄金价格反弹的核心驱动因素。以色列与伊朗的空战已持续五天，冲突 范围不断扩大，德黑兰和伊斯法罕等地接连发生爆炸，特拉维夫响起空袭警报。 美国进一步加强在中东的军事部署，增派战斗机并扩大战机部署范围，令市场对地区冲突升级的担忧加 剧。 Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wycoff指出，地缘政治不确定性为市场提供了避险买盘的支撑，尤其是在伊 朗与以色列冲突可能先升级后缓和的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力显著增强。 【上一交易日黄金 ...

本周一，国际金价延续强势上涨，亚洲时段现货黄金一度攀升0.6%至3450美元/盎司关口附近，距离4月 历史高点仅剩50美元空间。本轮涨势直接诱因仍为中东局势升级——以色列与伊朗周末爆发新一轮导弹 与无人机袭击，能源基础设施遭袭风险推高原油价格，同时加剧全球系统性风险溢价。 ETO Markets 核心观点：地缘政治不确定性已成为黄金短期核心驱动因素。若冲突范围进一步扩大，避 险资金或加速涌入黄金市场，推动金价快速突破历史峰值。 上周美国通胀与就业数据双双疲软，市场对美联储年内降息的预期升温。利率下行周期中，无息资产黄 金的相对吸引力持续上升。 3. 避险资金迁移路径清晰 Guardian Gold Australia分析师John Feeney指出："当前黄金买盘已非短期避险情绪驱动，长期资金正从 美债市场向黄金转移，央行储备多元化是重要推手。" 技术面：多头通道完整，警惕超买风险 日线格局：金价维持多头通道上轨运行，MACD指标呈现强劲金叉，动能柱持续放大，显示短线买盘充 沛。 多因素共振支撑金价创新高 1. 全球央行"去美元化"布局深化 2025年以来，黄金累计涨幅超30%，背后是美联储货币政策转向与美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trafigura warns that market volatility may not translate into profit opportunities for its traders, as its recent financial report shows dividend payments exceeding net profits [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the six months ending in March, Trafigura reported a net profit of $1.52 billion, a slight increase of 2.8% year-on-year [1] - The company paid out $1.54 billion in dividends, a significant increase of 136% year-on-year, surpassing the total dividend amount of $2.02 billion for the entire fiscal year 2024 [1] - Trafigura's net assets decreased to $16.2 billion as of March, down from $16.3 billion at the end of September last year, but still above the minimum target of $15 billion [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategy - The company anticipates continued market volatility into the second half of 2025, driven more by policy decisions than traditional supply-demand imbalances [1] - Trafigura's trading volumes for bulk mineral products decreased by 21% year-on-year, while oil and gas trading volumes remained flat, and non-ferrous metal volumes fell by 4.8% [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency in policies and processes, especially after reporting an $1.1 billion loss in its Mongolia operations due to employee misconduct [2] Group 3: Corporate Actions - Trafigura has delayed some of its share buyback payments due this year, creating financial pressure as high executive turnover has forced the company to spend significantly on repurchasing shares [2] - The company publicly acknowledged its involvement in the $3 billion acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, which increased the value of its non-listed equity holdings from $197 million to $467 million [2]

美国银行：地缘政治不确定性将继续支撑金价 年底或达到4000美元 金十数据6月5日讯，美国银行预计，到今年年底或2026年初，黄金价格将达到4000美元。该行分析师表 示，贸易引发的地缘政治不确定性将继续支撑金属，对美国政府财政状况的担忧日益加剧，可能催化下 一轮上涨。"到目前为止，贸易争端主要通过扰乱供应链和削弱信心来影响经济。"美国银行全球大宗商 品和衍生品研究主管弗朗西斯科·布兰奇表示，黄金目前似乎正在调整，但长期前景仍然看涨。"从更长 期来看，也许到下半年或2026年，金价将突破每盎司4000美元，但由于近几个月的一些极端不确定性似 乎正在消退，金价在经历调整，这个阶段可能会持续几个月。" ...

操作及建议： 1.3369附近空，止损3378.，止盈3343/3328 2.3328-30附近多，止损3318，止盈3356-66 黄金消息面：周一（6月2日）黄金价格延续涨势，最高触及3382.83美元/盎司，现交投于3389.60美元附 近。支撑因素包括：特朗普重提关税威胁及俄乌冲突在第二轮和谈前加剧（乌方大规模打击、俄方无人 机夜袭），显著提升了黄金作为地缘政治不确定性时期避险资产的需求。同时，市场风险偏好受抑（如 亚洲股市疲软）及持续的中美贸易紧张也利好金价。投资者正密切关注本周多位美联储官员讲话以寻求 未来货币政策线索，黄金通常在低利率环境下表现更佳。 黄金走势分析：日内符合我看跌回落，然后陷入震荡的走势，因为短期支撑上涨的消息面不够强劲，又 有地缘风险不断加持，金价能以持续上涨，所以看好短期回落，重回震荡，晚间的话，重点关注 3328/3335附近支撑，此区间可以考虑转空为多，短期上方关注3366-71附近压制，依托此位做空，止损 3378.6，止盈3343，跌破看3328-35区间，若有3328-30附近机会，可以低多，止损3318即可，止盈看 3356-66。 前言：下跌行情不言底，上涨行情 ...

黄金消息面：周一（6月2日）黄金价格延续涨势，最高触及3382.83美元/盎司，现交投于3389.60美元附近。支撑因素包括：特朗普重提关税威胁及俄乌冲突 在第二轮和谈前加剧（乌方大规模打击、俄方无人机夜袭），显著提升了黄金作为地缘政治不确定性时期避险资产的需求。同时，市场风险偏好受抑（如亚 洲股市疲软）及持续的中美贸易紧张也利好金价。投资者正密切关注本周多位美联储官员讲话以寻求未来货币政策线索，黄金通常在低利率环境下表现更 佳。 操作及建议：回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注3400-3415一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3370-3360一线支撑。 黄金走势分析：本周黄金行情相对清晰，大周期维持多头趋势下的震荡上涨格局，区间暂看3365-3270，周初料在此区间运行。需注意本周是非农周，周三 起需重点关注消息面影响。技术面看涨信号明确：周线、日线及H4周期均呈多头形态。日线连阳形态确立涨势，中期目标指向布林上轨3400附近，耐心等 待多头放量。H4周期受消息推动已有效突破前期关键阻力3330，布林带开口预示上行空间打开，下一阻力看3365，突破则有望挑战3400。小时线显示亚盘 回踩3301后强势反 ...