Oil and Gas - KazTransOil supplied 160,000 tons of crude oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline in June [2] - Russian Urals crude oil prices are $2 per barrel below the $60 price cap set by Western countries due to weakening Brent crude prices [2] - IEA raised oil supply forecasts for this year and next, noting a decline in Iranian crude production and exports in June, while Saudi oil production surged above OPEC+ quotas [2] - EU representatives are nearing agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including a mechanism to lower the price cap on Russian oil [2] - Iraq set the official selling price for Basrah medium crude oil for August at a discount of $1.15 per barrel to Argus sour crude for North and South America, a premium of $1.35 per barrel to Oman/Dubai average for Asia, and a discount of $0.55 per barrel to Brent for Europe [2] Precious Metals and Mining - Spot silver surpassed $39, with a year-to-date increase of 35% [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts continued strong demand for gold from central banks, forecasting gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-next year [3] - ANZ forecasts gold prices to rise to $3,500 per ounce by the end of Q3 2025, while platinum prices may fall to $1,250 per ounce if they do not break through $1,400 per ounce [3] US Tariffs - Thailand's finance minister is considering zero tariffs on more US imports [4] - South Korean officials indicated a potential trade framework agreement with the US before August [4] - EU officials plan to deepen trade agreements with Asian countries in response to US tariffs [4] - Italy's foreign minister stated that the EU is prepared with a €21 billion tariff list on US goods if no agreement is reached with the US [4]

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 107 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 56.24 million yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 111% [2][3] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, of -13 million yuan for the first half of 2025, which is an increase of 131.15 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2][3] - The significant increase in profit is attributed to effective macro policies that have positively impacted the bulk commodity market, despite challenges in the black metal circulation sector due to weak demand and fluctuating steel prices [2] Group 2 - The company's previous year's total profit was 87.24 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -144.15 million yuan, and earnings per share of -0.01 yuan [2] - The company emphasizes a strategy focused on stability and progress, enhancing capability building and risk management while actively adjusting market strategies [2]

Oil Market - Saudi Arabia has unexpectedly raised the price of its main crude oil grades for Asian buyers in August, with a premium of $2.20 per barrel over the regional benchmark [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that OPEC+ will increase oil production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, maintaining the Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel for Q4 and $56 per barrel for 2026 [2][4] Commodities and Trade - The European Union plans to establish an emergency reserve for critical minerals to address geopolitical risks [3] - Canada is "very likely" to build a new oil pipeline, according to Prime Minister Carney [4] - OPEC+ is expected to agree to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [4] - Companies such as Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Trafigura are seeking government assistance to maintain Australian smelting plants [4] - Indonesia has committed to purchasing more U.S. wheat to reach a trade agreement [4] - Indonesia's Chief Economic Minister proposed near-zero tariffs on 20 major U.S. export goods during tariff negotiations [4] - Thailand's Finance Minister announced a new tariff proposal for zero tariffs on many imports from the U.S. [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to hold nuclear talks with Iran in Oslo next week [1] - Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast to $72 per barrel for 2025 and $70 per barrel for 2026 [1] - The U.S. Treasury has imposed sanctions on companies related to Iraq for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling, targeting the "shadow fleet" [1] Group 2 - Indonesia will sign a memorandum of understanding with U.S. partners before the tariff negotiation deadline [1] - The EIA reported a natural gas inventory change of 550 billion cubic feet for the week ending June 27, marking the smallest increase since April 11, 2025 [1] - BlackRock is considering selling its stake in Saudi Aramco's natural gas pipeline company [1] Group 3 - Non-farm employment in the U.S. oil and gas extraction industry decreased by approximately 500 jobs in June compared to the previous month, and by about 900 jobs year-over-year [1] - Russia is seeking to confiscate a top gold mining company from a billionaire [1] - Nornickel expects a global nickel surplus of 130,000 tons in 2026, up from a surplus of 120,000 tons in 2025 [1] Group 4 - India's mining minister stated the need to double aluminum and copper production by 2030 [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. and Vietnam have reached a trade agreement, with Vietnam opening its market to the U.S. and agreeing to pay a 20% tariff, along with a 40% tariff on any transshipped goods [1] - The U.S. agriculture sector is expected to benefit from the trade agreement with Vietnam [1] - Kazakhstan has announced the halt of construction on the Karachaganak gas processing plant [1] Group 2 - Indonesia plans to increase its crude oil production to 1 million barrels per day [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil imports from Nigeria reached the highest level since August 2019 [1] - OPEC's 12 member countries increased their production by 360,000 barrels per day in June, averaging 28 million barrels per day, with approximately two-thirds of the increase contributed by Saudi Arabia [1]

Group 1 - Iran is preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz amid the outbreak of conflict with Israel [1] - Russia will temporarily reduce fuel exports to stabilize the exchange rate [2] - Iraq reports that imports of Iranian natural gas have decreased by half [3] Group 2 - Mexico's oil production has fallen to levels not seen since the late 1970s [4] - Goldman Sachs indicates that if OPEC+ decides to increase production, the market is unlikely to react significantly as expectations have already shifted in that direction [5] - Shipping intelligence firm Kpler reports that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June to 6.33 million barrels per day, the highest level in over a year [6] Group 3 - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in June increased by 7.5% compared to May, reaching 1.88 million barrels per day, marking a historical high [7] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in the first half of the year grew by 13% year-on-year, reaching 1.79 million barrels per day [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commodity market in the second half of 2025 Core Insights - The global commodity market is influenced by the U.S. tariff policy, which affects various commodities differently, leading to increased price volatility and risk [1][4] - Two major factors are expected to impact the commodity market in the second half of 2025: fundamental changes and cost support levels [1][5] - The effectiveness of agricultural commodity CTA strategies has increased due to the significant impact of U.S. tariff policies on global commodity prices [1][6] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The outlook for the global commodity market in the second half of 2025 can be summarized by two main viewpoints: consensus expectations and changing factors [2] - Historical trends indicate that commodity markets often experience either broad increases or decreases, influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies [2] Price Dynamics - Commodity prices being close to cost lines does not necessarily indicate future price declines; it requires consideration of fundamental changes and the reasons behind current cost distributions [3][8] - The oil market in the first half of 2025 showed poor performance due to a downward revision in global demand growth and increased production from non-OPEC sources [11] Specific Commodity Trends - Copper is expected to face short-term demand risks but maintains a reasonable price level due to long-term supply shortages [12] - Iron ore prices are projected to gradually decline to around 90 USD as the market becomes more balanced [13] - Gold has seen significant increases in ETF holdings, indicating its role as a safe-haven asset, although recent growth has plateaued [14] Structural Adjustments - The overall commodity market is anticipated to undergo structural adjustments in the second half of 2025, with a focus on supply-side variables and potential marginal cost reductions [15]

Oil Industry - Russian National Oil Pipeline Transport Company indicates that oil transportation will continue to decline through 2025 [4] - U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm states that sanctions on Iranian oil remain effective [4] - Market rumors suggest OPEC+ is considering a significant increase in oil production [4] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak mentions that OPEC+ may discuss production increases on July 6 [4] - Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil oil field exported its first batch of oil to Germany via the Friendship pipeline in May [4] - Israeli refineries are expected to fully resume operations by October 2025 [4] - Former President Trump claims to have completely destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities and suggests lifting sanctions if peace is achieved [4] Natural Gas and Energy - U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm identifies natural gas, nuclear energy, and coal as key components for the future of the U.S. power grid [4] - Reports indicate that the short-term outlook for natural gas supply on Australia's east coast continues to deteriorate, with structural shortages expected from 2028 unless new supplies come online [4] Trade and Imports - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reports a 13.9% year-on-year increase in crude oil imports for May, while refined oil sales decreased by 4.2%, gasoline sales by 0.6%, and kerosene sales by 8.7% [4] - Indonesia's Trade Minister announces the easing of import measures covering forestry products, plastic materials, and certain fertilizers [4] - Indonesia has proposed joint investment in critical mineral "brownfield projects" to the U.S. as part of tariff negotiations [4] - A trade agreement reducing tariffs on automotive and aircraft parts between the U.S. and the UK has come into effect [4]

Oil Market - Citigroup predicts that oil prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year [1] Natural Gas - LNG carriers have been spotted near Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project for the first time in months [2] - The EIA reported that as of the week ending June 20, U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 28,980 billion cubic feet, an increase of 960 billion cubic feet from the previous week, with a year-on-year decline of 6.3% and a 6.6% increase compared to the five-year average [2] Precious Metals and Mining - Supply concerns have driven spot platinum prices to their highest level since 2014 [3] - The London Metal Exchange's key daily copper price spread reached its highest level since 2021 [3] - The Hong Kong government reported that gold exports to mainland China in May totaled 57.76 tons, down from 58.61 tons, with net gold exports of 48.127 tons, up from 43.462 tons [3] Other Commodities - Weak coal prices are putting pressure on the credit status of Asian coal producers [4] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that the tax legislation will ultimately lead to higher energy prices [5] - Reports indicate that Trump is leveraging U.S.-EU trade negotiations to pressure the EU and prevent oil giants from being constrained by climate regulations [5] - Due to declining Brent crude prices, the price of Ural crude oil at Russian ports has reportedly fallen below the price cap [5] - The U.S. is not expected to complete the planned delivery of strategic petroleum reserves before December, with only about 8.8 million barrels delivered out of a planned 15.8 million barrels by May [5] Agriculture - Thailand's Ministry of Commerce anticipates that rice exports will reach the target of 7.5 million tons this year [6]

Group 1: Oil and Gas Market - Japan's largest gas supplier, Tokyo Gas, is negotiating a long-term liquefied natural gas procurement agreement with the United States [1] - Shell is reportedly in preliminary talks to acquire BP [3] - If OPEC deems it necessary, Russia is willing to increase oil production again [3] - Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade states that the country's refinery will produce 7.7 million tons of oil products in the second half of the year [3] - Israel's Ministry of Energy has approved the resumption of operations at a natural gas field [3] - The Turpan to Zhongwei section of the West-to-East Gas Pipeline has been fully completed and put into operation [3] Group 2: Metals and Mining - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices could reach a peak of $10,050 per ton this year [2]