Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a positive outlook for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) due to easing US-China trade tensions, with expectations for the index to return to 27,000 points [2][3] - The HSI closed at 26,649 points, up 407 points or 1.55%, with a total market turnover of 214.79 billion [3] Group 2: Macro & Industry Dynamics - The Hong Kong government proposes three recommendations to expand the commodity market, aiming to enhance economic resilience and solidify its status as an international financial center [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need to strengthen the spot trading foundation before developing futures trading, which will gradually increase demand for related derivatives [6] - Key commodities such as gold, iron ore, copper, and aluminum are identified as having significant growth potential due to strong demand from mainland China and global energy transition trends [6][7] Group 3: Company News - Nissin Foods reported a 2.73% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, amounting to HKD 258 million, driven by robust performance in Hong Kong and other regions [10] - HKTVmall's total order value in October increased by 6.01% month-on-month, although it decreased by 4.31% year-on-year, reflecting changing consumer patterns and increased competition [11] - Boyaa Interactive anticipates a doubling of profits for the first three quarters, primarily due to an increase in the fair value of digital assets [12]

Core Insights - The global energy market is experiencing volatility due to rapid industry development, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand imbalances [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has risen nearly 15% for 2025, but the underlying fundamentals appear unstable [3][8] - There is a significant divergence between the soaring gold prices and the declining oil prices, reminiscent of the 2008 market conditions [3][8] Commodity Price Trends - Gold is trading around $4,000 per ounce, while oil is at approximately $40 per barrel, indicating a stark contrast in performance [3] - The WTI crude oil is entering a "low-price recovery" phase, which will impact natural gas and gasoline prices, currently around $2 per million BTU and $2 per gallon, respectively [3][8] - The agricultural sector, particularly soybeans, is becoming a focal point, with $11 per bushel for soybeans seen as a critical resistance level for 2026 [4][8] Agricultural Market Outlook - If soybeans can maintain above $11 per bushel, it may signal bullish trends for the grain and energy markets [4] - However, the likelihood of sustained prices above 2025 averages for soybeans, corn, wheat, oil, and natural gas is low due to oversupply concerns [4][8] - Historical patterns suggest that after significant price increases, commodities tend to correct, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [4][7] Market Dynamics and Risks - The overall commodity price increase is primarily driven by the metal sector, with gold's surge diverging from fundamental values [7][8] - The performance of the Bloomberg Commodity Index relative to the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index indicates potential systemic risks if the U.S. stock market experiences a downturn [11]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of US-China trade negotiations on the commodity market, particularly focusing on copper and soybean markets [3][4][6]. Key Points on Copper Market - Global supply risks from free ports have driven copper prices up, with expectations of a structural shortage in the market due to low inventory and long-term demand from new energy sectors [4][6]. - Currently, there are no signs of copper being overbought, indicating potential for continued price increases [4]. Key Points on Gold Market - Recent gold price declines are attributed to reduced risk aversion and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, leading to a downward adjustment in December rate cut probabilities [4][5]. - Central bank gold purchases have slowed, contributing to short-term price pressures, but gold remains attractive as a long-term hedge against uncertainty [5]. Key Points on Soybean Market - The projected soybean production for the 2025-2026 season is 117 million tons, but this may be adjusted due to the USDA shutdown [6]. - Soybean exports are expected to be 45.86 million tons, with approximately 13 million tons directed to China. However, insufficient prior purchases from China have created a surplus pressure of about 12 million tons for US farmers [6][7]. - The forecast for US soybean export pressure in 2025 is between 10 to 12 million tons, significantly influenced by US-China procurement agreements [7][8]. Price Dynamics and Scenarios - Three scenarios for soybean price movements are proposed: 1. **Conservative Estimate**: If tariffs remain and first-quarter purchases are below 3 million tons, prices may quickly decline [8]. 2. **Baseline Scenario**: If imports range between 6 to 8 million tons, prices may stabilize around 1,100 cents per bushel [8]. 3. **Optimistic Scenario**: If China purchases around 12 million tons in the first quarter, prices could rise above 1,150 cents, potentially reaching 1,200 cents [8]. Chinese Soybean Market Dynamics - The Chinese soybean market is shifting from gap pricing to cost pricing, with ample supply leading to price declines in Q4 [9]. - If US-China relations improve in Q1, prices may stabilize based on Brazilian and US soybean procurement costs, with potential for profit recovery [9][10]. Impact of Chinese Procurement on Futures - The pace of Chinese soybean procurement directly affects the March futures contracts. Slow procurement and insufficient margins may lead to price increases post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Agricultural Planting Decisions - Rising soybean prices may shift planting decisions towards soybeans over corn, creating a seesaw effect in planting areas [12]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the interconnectedness of US-China trade negotiations, commodity pricing, and agricultural production decisions, emphasizing the need for close monitoring of procurement agreements and market dynamics.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current supply is relatively balanced with an increase in the north and a decrease in the south, and the overall supply will gradually decline in November. The demand in the polysilicon segment will weaken after November due to the dry - season and quota production, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that the short - term market will remain range - bound, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [6]. - For polysilicon, the current supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations, and it is expected to remain in high - level oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract rebounded slightly, closing at 8920 yuan/ton on October 24 [6]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's output increased due to newly ignited silicon furnaces, while the start - up in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little. Yunnan had a small reduction in production under high - cost pressure, and the start - up rate is expected to decline further in November. Sichuan's start - up decreased gradually during the dry season. Overall, the output increased slightly this month and is expected to decline next month [6]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon production decreased slightly, reducing the consumption of industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon was basically stable, and a small amount of monomer production capacity under maintenance will resume next week. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, with primary aluminum alloy running stably and recycled aluminum alloy restricted by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous month and an 8% increase year - on - year [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 559000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 52305 yuan/ton on October 24 [7]. - **Supply**: Three enterprises resumed production and increased output in October, and the production is expected to increase slightly this month. According to the fourth - quarter production plans of each enterprise, some production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be gradually shut down for maintenance during the dry season in November, and the production will gradually decline from November to December [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, and component and cell manufacturers have a weak willingness to purchase. Downstream purchasing enterprises are mainly waiting and watching, and no actual transactions have been made. A new round of transactions is expected to be carried out in batches next week. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a 28% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the purchasing pace of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, and 421 oxygen - passed was 9100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [10]. - **Industrial Silicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [14]. - **Polysilicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, P - type dense material was 33000 yuan/ton, and P - type cauliflower material was 30500 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [18]. - **Polysilicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17000 yuan/ton, and the premium over P - type cauliflower material was 19500 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [22]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of October 24, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1140 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang silicon coal was 1700 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica stone was 340 yuan/ton, Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [26]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shandong port Saudi petroleum coke was 1555 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from last week. The electricity price in Xinjiang was 0.375 yuan/kWh, Sichuan was 0.325 yuan/kWh, and Yunnan was 0.33 yuan/kWh, all unchanged from last week [30]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Yunnan wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, Yunnan charcoal was 2450 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes were 12750 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [34]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of October 24, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.34, 1.34, 1.365, and 1.69 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. Due to weak terminal demand, second - tier and tail enterprises actively lowered prices [37]. - **Batteries**: As of October 24, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.315, 0.315, 0.285, and 0.31 yuan/watt respectively, with decreases of 0.003, 0.003, 0.002, and 0 yuan/watt respectively from last week. Overseas market demand has declined, and export order support has weakened [41]. - **Components**: As of October 24, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.68, 0.7, 0.68, and 0.7 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and cost pressure has increased [45]. Other Related Products - **Organic Silicon**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up was stable, and the price remained stable [49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20800 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from last week. Aluminum alloy enterprises maintained stable start - up, the primary aluminum sector was relatively stable, and recycled aluminum alloy was restricted by scrap aluminum supply [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodities rebounded from low levels, with most varieties seeing an upturn, especially industrial products, while agricultural products showed a volatile trend. The reasons include the deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and US sanctions leading to a sharp rebound in oil prices, the increasing expectation of domestic policy intensification, and the weak US inflation data leading to a growing expectation of Fed rate cuts [3]. - The Sino-US trade relationship is at a critical stage with both tension and dialogue. The future direction depends on the ongoing consultations and political decisions in subsequent meetings between the two leaders [3]. - The US CPI in September was weaker than market expectations, and core inflation slowed month-on-month. Employment will be the main factor for the Fed to cut rates in the future, and inflation may not be an effective macro factor [3]. - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8% due to the slowdown in investment, consumption, and employment. Although China's actual economic growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, achieving the annual target requires a 4.4% growth in Q4. There is still room for incremental policies in Q4 [3]. - The PBOC kept the one-year and five-year LPR unchanged in October. Small and medium-sized banks are still under great pressure on net interest margins, and it is expected that the intensity of growth-stabilizing policies will increase in Q4, and there is still room for monetary policy easing [3]. - Risk appetite has increased, and commodities may rebound in the short term due to the easing of Sino-US relations, the opening of the window for incremental policy intensification, the weak US inflation data strengthening the Fed's rate cut prospects, and the uncertainty in geopolitical factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement on October 24, and Sino-US officials held a new round of economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur on October 25 [3]. - The US CPI in September was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.3% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.4%); core CPI was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.2% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.3%) [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8%. From January to September, real estate development investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and infrastructure investment increased by 6.1% year-on-year. To achieve the annual 5% growth target, Q4 GDP needs to grow by 4.4% [3][20]. - The PBOC maintained the one-year and five-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively in October. Since October, small and medium-sized banks in various provinces and cities have been intensively lowering or preparing to lower deposit rates [3][23]. PART FOUR: High-Frequency Data Tracking - On October 24, the开工率 of POY, PTA, and PTA in the polyester industry chain was 75%, 89%, and 74% respectively [26]. - The values of some other high-frequency data are also presented in the report, such as the开工率 of the polyester industry chain, blast furnace开工率, and the average wholesale prices of agricultural products [26][27][41].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On October 20, 2025, the A-share market showed a general upward trend, but the trading volume decreased. Different futures varieties had different price trends, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international market conditions [1] - Most futures varieties are currently in a state of complex supply - demand relationships, with short - term trends being mainly volatile, and different varieties have different influencing factors and future focus points [5][8] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 20, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% to 3863.89 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98% to 12813.21 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98% to 2993.45 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1737.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 200.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index rebounded and consolidated, closing at 4538.22, a rise of 23.99 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On October 20, the coke weighted index fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1735.3, a rise of 28.9; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1229.0 yuan, a rise of 29.5 [3][4] - The supply of coking coal increased, but production was restricted by over - production inspections. The strong thermal coal market supported the price of coking coal. Coke production decreased with the decline of hot metal, and factors such as shrinking steel mill profits and inventory accumulation restricted the rise of coking coal prices. In the short term, the upward driving force of double - coking was insufficient [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Although the US sugar fell last Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract did not follow. Affected by the decrease in imports in September, short - covering pushed the futures price to close slightly higher. Supported by bargain - hunting, the contract also rose slightly at night [5] Rubber - On October 20, Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly, with natural rubber being strong and 20 - number rubber being weak. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported trucks and parts from November 1 [6] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 20, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated and closed higher. As of October 17, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans had reached 23.27% of the expected total area, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year. Domestically, on October 20, soybean meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the M2601 contract closing at 2895 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.94%. In the short term, soybean meal lacked upward driving force and was expected to fluctuate [6][8] Live Pigs - On October 20, live pig futures rebounded from the bottom, with the LH2601 contract closing at 12155 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.16%. In the short term, the live pig market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the rebound space might be limited [8] Palm Oil - On October 20, palm oil futures prices fluctuated slightly within the range. The main contract P2601 closed with a small negative line with an upper shadow. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared with the same period last month [8] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper was strong. The contraction of global copper mine supply, continuous maintenance of domestic smelters, and the Fed's loose policy provided support for copper prices. The 86000 yuan/ton integer mark was a key pressure level [9] Cotton - On the night of October 20, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13480 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 55 lots compared with the previous trading day. The price of machine - picked cotton increased on average, and the machine - picking progress in Xinjiang was more than half [9] Logs - On October 20, the 2511 log contract opened at 802, with the lowest at 798.5, the highest at 806.5, and closed at 802.5, with a reduction of 503 lots. The futures price rebounded near the 800 mark, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price and the pressure of the 807 moving average [9] Iron Ore - On October 20, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.58% and a closing price of 767 yuan. The iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly, the domestic arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. In the short term, the iron ore price was in a volatile trend [10] Asphalt - On October 20, the main contract of asphalt 2601 fluctuated and closed up, with a rise of 0.13% and a closing price of 3141 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the shipment volume rebounded month - on - month. In the short term, the asphalt price was expected to fluctuate [10] Steel - On October 20, rb2601 was reported at 3045 yuan/ton, and hc2601 was reported at 3215 yuan/ton. The domestic steel demand was weak, and the supply - demand situation was weak. The raw fuel market was divided, and the steel price was expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][13] Alumina - On October 20, ao2601 was reported at 2806 yuan/ton. The supply of imported alumina ore was stable, and the inventory was high. The industry's operating capacity was at a high level. Before the emergence of a clear production - reduction signal, the market was in a weak rebound pattern with limited space [13] Shanghai Aluminum - On October 20, al2511 was reported at 20910 yuan/ton. The overseas and domestic macro signals were generally neutral and slightly improved. The macro - level provided mild support for the non - ferrous sector, but Sino - US relations might still cause disturbances [14]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1% on Wednesday, while the Dow rose by 0.84% to 46,657.52 and the NASDAQ climbed 1.19% to 22,788.69 [1] - Real estate shares saw a notable increase of 1.7%, and health care stocks rose by 0.4% on the same day [1] Company Financials - Bank of America reported a net income of $8.5 billion for Q3 fiscal 2025, up from $6.9 billion a year ago, with an EPS of $1.06, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.94 [2] - The bank's revenue, net of interest expense, increased by 11% year-over-year to $28.24 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $27.50 billion [2] Commodity Market - Oil prices increased by 0.4% to $58.96, while gold rose by 1.3% to $4,217.50 [5] - Silver traded up 1.6% to $51.410, whereas copper experienced a slight decline of 0.1% to $5.0225 [5] Stock Movements - Australian Oilseeds Holdings Limited shares surged by 270% to $3.6200 following comments from President Trump regarding potential business terminations with China [8] - Genprex, Inc. saw its shares increase by 173% to $0.6910 due to upcoming presentations at a major cancer therapeutics conference [8] - Omeros Corporation's shares rose by 144% to $10.02 after Novo Nordisk acquired its global rights to Zaltenibart [8] - Conversely, Yueda Digital Holding shares plummeted by 84% to $0.2259 after announcing a $28 million registered direct offering [8] - Largo Inc. shares fell by 45% to $1.39 following the announcement of a $23.4 million registered direct offering and private placement [8] - Aqua Metals, Inc. shares decreased by 37% to $18.72 after raising $13 million from an institutional investor [8] International Markets - European shares were generally higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.6% and France's CAC 40 surging by 2.2% [6] - Asian markets closed positively, with Japan's Nikkei 225 increasing by 1.76% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumping by 1.84% [9] Economic Indicators - The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose by 19.4 points to a reading of 10.7 in October, surpassing market expectations of -1.0 [10]

Group 1: Oil Market - WTI crude oil has dropped to $58.7 per barrel, the lowest price since May, while Brent crude is around $62 [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in global oil supply compared to demand next year, marking an unprecedented overproduction [3] - Trade tensions have led to decreased demand expectations for oil, causing further price declines [3] - Major oil executives from companies like Trafigura and Gunvor predict that oil prices are likely to continue falling, with gasoline and diesel demand potentially peaking [3] Group 2: Base Metals - Base metals are experiencing a collective decline, with LME copper down 2.24%, aluminum and nickel also falling, and zinc hitting a nearly eight-month low with a 2.63% drop [3] - The decline in metal prices is attributed to weak industrial demand and uncertainty in trade relations, leading to reduced factory orders for raw materials [3] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold has risen by 0.73% to $4,138.7 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts [4] - The ongoing trade tensions have prompted investors to convert cash into gold for protection, while lower interest rates make non-yielding gold more attractive [4] - Long-term forecasts suggest that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce, supported by continued buying from ETFs and central banks [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The global ETF gold holdings have significantly increased, with a net inflow of 146 tons year-to-date, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. The North American market contributed the majority of this increase, reflecting concerns over U.S. economic risks, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The oil market is under pressure due to global risk asset sell-offs, despite OPEC's October meeting aligning with expectations for a slight reduction in production increases. Brent crude oil is expected to find support at around $60 per barrel [1][4] - The copper market is experiencing supply-side risks, particularly due to a Freeport incident leading to a supply-demand imbalance. Long-term fundamentals remain positive, with expectations of a copper shortage from 2025 to 2026 [1][6] Key Points on Specific Markets Gold Market - The rise in gold prices since September is primarily driven by safe-haven demand rather than expectations of interest rate cuts. The increase in ETF holdings in non-U.S. regions, especially Asia, is noteworthy [1][5] Oil Market - OPEC's recent actions included accelerating production cuts from April to September, with Saudi Arabia increasing production by approximately 1 million barrels. However, the market is expected to face downward pressure due to seasonal declines in downstream consumption and rising U.S. inventories [1][3][4] Pork Market - The pork market has seen a significant decline in prices, with a 15% drop in 2025 attributed to increased supply during peak seasons without a corresponding rise in demand. Future developments in the pork cycle will depend on supply-demand balance, policy adjustments, and breeding costs [1][7][8] - For October to November, pork prices are expected to continue declining, with planned slaughter volumes increasing by 5.5% and high slaughter weights maintained [1][9] - The medium-term outlook suggests that pork prices will not rebound significantly from Q4 2025 to H1 2026 due to ongoing supply pressures from increasing piglet numbers and policy measures affecting supply dynamics [1][10] - Long-term projections for H2 2026 indicate a target of 39 million breeding sows, with current losses in breeding profits accelerating the culling process. However, any significant capacity reduction in the near term may provide some price rebound opportunities [1][11] Additional Insights - The copper market is expected to remain in a state of shortage from 2025 to 2026, with favorable long-term fundamentals supporting price increases despite short-term market risk preferences [1][6] - The current futures market shows the 11 contract at a balanced state, indicating some supply pressure has been alleviated, while potential opportunities exist in the 09 contract due to deep losses in the 11 contract [1][12]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market closed up 0.46% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. Due to the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation, the commodity market may be under pressure in the short term [2]. - The US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish statements from Fed officials, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Non - ferrous metals may be under pressure due to trade tensions despite supply disturbances. Black metals are likely to face pressure with weak demand and increasing external trade frictions. Energy prices may oscillate weakly due to inventory increases and geopolitical factors. Chemical products may be affected by trade frictions and oil price drops. Agricultural products may face supply shortages if the trade war persists [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.46% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rose 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [2]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Tin, copper, and coking coal led the gains with increases of 4.1%, 3.37%, and 3.11% respectively. Pigs, eggs, and crude oil had larger declines of 8.38%, 7.64%, and 3.71% respectively [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The losses from the US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish Fed statements, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals. With the rising risk of the Sino - US trade war, the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Supply disturbances made the sector perform strongly during the holiday, but the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation led to large declines in previously strong varieties. Supply remains tight, but terminal consumption has slowed, and inventories are accumulating. The sector may be under pressure in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: During the long holiday, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production decreased slightly, and inventories increased sharply. With high - level molten iron, weakening steel mill profitability, and increasing external trade frictions, the sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and geopolitical factors may have a negative impact on oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. - **Chemical Products**: For building materials, trade friction may be unfavorable for PVC exports, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Polyester products may be affected by trade friction and oil price drops, facing cost collapse and weak demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Possible US tariff increases may affect domestic soybean supplies in the first and second quarters of next year. If the trade war lasts, the overall supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year. Oils and fats may be under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty caused by the US government shutdown [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Precious Metal ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.94% - 2.99%. The total net asset value of gold ETFs was 1,773.72 billion yuan, with a 1.66% increase. The total net asset value of all commodity ETFs was 1,853.72 billion yuan, with a 1.83% increase [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical futures ETF had a - 1.28% return, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a - 0.29% return, the non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a 3.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a 2.61% return [38].