12月31日，A股迎来年度最后一个交易日，商业航天概念再度强势走高。催化因素来自政策与产业双重 利好：12月30日，海南省航天领导小组会议在海口召开，明确提出要抢抓商业航天发展（000547）战略 机遇期，加快培育"向天图强"的新质生产力；12月26日，上交所发布《发行上市审核规则适用指引第9 号》，首次细化商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准，为商业航天企业打通资本市场通道。 更深层的逻辑正在形成。多家券商年度策略会纪要指出，当前商业航天的投资主线已从早期的基础设施 叙事，转向以"太空算力"为核心的新范式——即通过低轨卫星搭载AI芯片，实现星上智能处理，从而缓 解地面数据中心的能源瓶颈。这一闭环不仅提升了商业航天的经济可行性，也使其成为2026年科技投资 的核心主线之一。 在此背景下，市场关注焦点正从火箭、卫星整机制造，向上游高价值核心元器件(如高效能源系统)和下 游应用场景延伸。而光伏，尤其是具备超高能量密度与轻量化特性的钙钛矿电池，正成为支撑"太空算 力"落地的关键技术路径。 近日，光伏电池龙头企业钧达股份（002865）(002865.SZ)宣布与尚翼光电签署战略合作协议，共同推 进钙钛矿电池在太空能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the intense competition in the reusable rocket sector, particularly between Chinese companies and SpaceX, with significant advancements in technology and launch capabilities being made by both sides [1][22][41]. Group 1: Chinese Space Achievements - China achieved a record of 88 space launches in 2025, nearing the 100-launch milestone, with notable events including the successful emergency launch of Shenzhou 22 and a record of three launches in one day [1][21]. - The Long March 12甲 rocket successfully launched on December 23, becoming the first methane rocket from China's national team and the fifth globally to achieve this feat, although it did not succeed in its first-stage recovery [4][25]. Group 2: SpaceX Dominance - SpaceX continues to lead the industry with a record of 163 launches in 2025, including a monthly record of 15 launches in October and a successful launch of 29 satellites in one go on December 9 [1][21]. - The Falcon 9 rocket has achieved a record of 32 reuses, showcasing the effectiveness of its recovery technology [1][21]. Group 3: Reusable Rocket Developments - Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket successfully completed its second launch with first-stage recovery, marking it as the third rocket globally to achieve vertical landing after Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy [2][23]. - The Blue Arrow Zhuque-3 rocket, despite a landing failure, is significant as China's first attempt at orbital rocket landing and the world's second stainless steel rocket [2][23]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Prospects - The emergence of multiple Chinese reusable rockets, including Zhuque-3, Long March 12甲, and Tianlong-3, indicates a strategic move to compete directly with SpaceX's Falcon 9, targeting the high-demand market segment [9][30][31]. - The article emphasizes that the 10-20 ton rocket class is becoming the market's mainstay due to its ability to efficiently deploy multiple satellites and meet the growing demand for low Earth orbit satellite constellations [11][32][34]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The competition in the reusable rocket sector is seen as a precursor to broader geopolitical and technological rivalries, with the potential for China to surpass the U.S. in space capabilities [20][41]. - The article suggests that the ongoing developments in reusable rockets are not just about technology but also about establishing a sustainable space economy and infrastructure for future advancements [19][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the commercial aerospace industry [4] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to transition from initial scale expansion to a critical development phase focused on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement by 2026, as highlighted in a recent speech by President Xi Jinping [8] - The introduction of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's guidelines for commercial rocket companies is anticipated to accelerate the IPO process for private enterprises in the sector, particularly those with reusable rocket technology [8] - The efficiency of satellite constellation deployment is expected to improve, driven by advancements in rocket capacity and cost control, with reusable rockets playing a crucial role [8] - The concept of space computing is moving towards practical implementation, with SpaceX planning an IPO in 2026, which may influence domestic developments in space computing [8] Summary by Sections - **Rocket Sector**: The report indicates that 2026 will see the listing of main rocket manufacturers and a potential turning point for reusable technology, which is expected to enhance the launch capabilities of private companies [8] - **Satellite Sector**: The report emphasizes that the acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite launches will depend on the management of launch costs and rocket capacity, with reusable rockets being a key driver [8] - **Space Computing**: The report outlines a government-led initiative to develop a multi-core plan for space computing, focusing on specialized computing constellations and the integration of terrestrial and space computing capabilities [8] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on leading companies in rocket components and satellite operations, which are likely to benefit from increased launch capacity and reduced costs [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter an explosive growth phase over the next two years, driven by technological breakthroughs and policy incentives. The demand for launch services and satellite networking is anticipated to increase significantly, supported by the U.S. "America First" space policy and China's advancements in rocket launch capabilities [9][21] - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body, the "Commercial Aerospace Administration," and the rapid acceptance of Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO indicate accelerated policy and capital support for the commercial aerospace sector [11][22] - The integration of artificial intelligence with commercial aerospace is transforming "space computing" from a concept into a commercial reality, enhancing demand for satellite manufacturing and launch services [12][23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 32,882.43 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 28,949.45 billion CNY [3] Key Developments - The successful launch of the "Fengyun-4C" satellite and the "Long March 7" rocket demonstrates China's growing capabilities in aerospace technology [14][30] - The first operational 30 MW pure hydrogen gas turbine marks a significant milestone in aviation equipment, showcasing advancements in green energy technology [13][28] Market Performance - The defense and military industry index rose by 3.05%, ranking second among 31 major industry sectors, with a current PE(TTM) of 78.4 times [41][48] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies in the missile and military electronics sector include Hongyuan Electronics, Torch Electronics, and Macro Electronics [24] - In the aerospace engine sector, companies like Aero Engine Corporation of China and supporting firms such as Yingliu Co. and Aerospace Technology are highlighted [25] - For military trade, key players include AVIC Chengfei, AVIC Shenyang, and AVIC Xi'an [26] - In the new domain construction, companies like Guolian Aviation and Superjet Co. are suggested for investment in commercial aerospace [27]

重要新闻提示 国家集成电路基金在中芯国际H股的持股比例从4.79%提升至9.25% 特斯拉电动车年销量首次被比亚迪超越 恒生指数公司：将于2月13日公布2025年第四季度恒生指数系列检讨结果，成分股变动将于3月9日生效 财经新闻 1. 1月2日，恒生指数公司发布公告称，将于2月13日（星期五）宣布2025年第四季度之恒生指数系列检 讨结果，恒生指数系列成分股变动将于3月9日（星期一）生效。 1. 中芯国际：1月2日，香港交易所信息显示，中芯国际同意向国家集成电路产业投资基金股份有限公司 发行3.57亿股股份。国家集成电路基金在中芯国际H股的持股比例于12月29日从4.79%升至9.25%，持股 比例接近翻倍。 2. 据新华社报道，美国电动汽车制造商特斯拉公司2日公布的数据显示，该公司2025年全球交付汽车 163.6万辆，同比下降约8.6%。这是特斯拉有史以来首次在全年电动汽车销量上被中国汽车制造商比亚 迪超越。 3. 长安汽车：长安汽车1月2日在其微信公众号披露，2025年销量291.3万辆，同比增长8.5%，创近九年 新高。其中，新能源销量110.9万辆，同比增长51%。海外销量63.7万辆，同比增长18 ...

来源：行业报告研究院 有个数字一直让我很震惊。 根据业内人士透露，目前中国已发射的遥感卫星，数据利用率不到5%。换句话说，迄今为止积累的海 量遥感数据，有95%从来没人看过。 你没看错。我们花几十亿、几百亿发射到天上的卫星，拍下来的照片大部分在硬盘里吃灰。 这就有点讽刺了。 一边是商业航天产业如火如荼——2024年融资披露金额达181亿元，六大头部火箭企业估值突破千亿， 卫星发射数量年年创新高。 另一边呢？卫星公司们集体亏损。长光卫星3年半亏了12亿，国星宇航年亏4.4亿。 一边造星，一边亏钱。这究竟是怎么回事？ 先看几组数据：产业规模vs应用收入 中国商业航天的整体盘子有多大？我整理了几个权威机构的数据： 【图表1】中国商业航天市场规模增长趋势（2018-2025E） 看起来很漂亮，年均增速超过20%。但问题来了——钱都去哪了？ 【图表2】2024年商业航天投融资赛道分布 2025年中国商业航天行业市场前景预测研究报告》 你发现问题了吗？ 资本一窝蜂往上游和中游涌（卫星互联网41%+火箭25%+卫星制造18%=84%），但真正关乎"数据能不 能用起来"的遥感应用，融资占比只有2%。 这就是典型的"能力过剩、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus on space computing power is gradually forming, with major overseas companies like SpaceX, Starcloud, and Google planning to establish space data centers, while domestic commercial aerospace is entering a phase of large-scale deployment, expected to experience explosive growth in the coming years [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The system cost of solar power, as the only energy source for satellites, is expected to continue increasing [1] - Current solar wing panels primarily use gallium arsenide technology, but new technologies such as P-type heterojunction and perovskite/silicon tandem are anticipated to gradually replace it in the medium to long term [1] Group 2: Market Potential - The space photovoltaic market is projected to reach a scale of trillions of yuan, indicating significant long-term investment opportunities in space photovoltaics [1]

首都在线 20251230 摘要 首都在线受益于大模型推理应用增长，边缘云需求随之提升，公司致力 于打造国产与英伟达适配平台，支持 MiniMax 等大模型企业出海，客户 依赖性增强。 基于 MaaS 服务和 Converged UI 平台的新业务每月增长率达 20%- 30%，有望显著提升公司毛利和收入水平。 首都在线转型较早，与智谱等公司建立了深度合作，积累了技术投入和 用户理解优势，并具备全球资源适配能力，满足客户国内外资源布局需 求。 公司通过"铁三角战略"（销售、产品技术解决方案、大客户服务）深 耕大客户，提供国产设备适配服务，确保业务合规性和连续性。 首都在线积极布局前瞻领域，包括太空算力相关业务，已在文昌建设算 力中心，在庆阳设立算力中心支持酒泉卫星发射，并探索 AI 生成短剧等 行业应用。 公司采取根据客户需求逐步扩大资产和合作的策略，国内重点布局庆阳、 怀来、芜湖和海南等八大节点，海外布局包括达拉斯和新加坡。 首都在线通过 MAAS 服务及 ComfyUI 与模型厂商合作推广业务，获取 较高毛利，并通过政府补助及政策支持，实现区域内较高盈利。 Q&A 近期大模型上市和 AI 应用发展对首都在 ...

TMT｜2026 年度科技投资展望 20251230 2025 年科技领域的发展可以分为几个关键阶段。1 月至 3 月，我们提出了春 季科技进攻的思路，并在 1 月建议进行科技抄底。3 月时，我们对科技年报和 一季报进行了展望。在 4 月市场低迷期间，我们再次明确了科技方向作为进攻 方向的重要性。到 9 月份，我们对 AI 产业动态进行了分析，并展望了四季度行 情，坚定了对 AI 投资的信心。 对于 2026 年的科技投资，您有哪些核心观点和判断？ 展望 2026 年，我们认为通信、电子、计算机和传媒四个行业将位于涨幅榜的 前 1/3，甚至有可能进入前 10 名。特别是通信板块，有望位于涨幅榜的前五名。 这一判断基于全球 AI PC 产业变革带来的基础设施建设高潮，以及国内外算力 需求持续增长。 具体来说，海外算力板块在 2026 年的业绩增速预计为 AI 领域 2026 年预计出现大模型大战，各大厂商争夺流量。流量分配方 式可能变化，生成式引擎优化（GEO）兴起，多模态 AI 应用带来娱乐方 式变革。 商业航天及太空算力发展超预期，通过部署在晨昏轨道上的卫星，可以 24 小时不间断地接收太阳能，从而显著提高 ...

目录 信息科技产业2026年年度策略 拥抱"AI+"与商业航天两大投资主线 信息技术产业研究团队 证券分析师：王秀钢 SAC NO:S1120519020001 徐 康 SAC NO:S1120525070004 2025年12月31日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 01 1 市场复盘：板块估值迎来重估，关注盈利端兑现 02 AI+ 2 ：AI革命持续演绎，应用&场景锚定价值落脚点 03 3 商业航天：运力迎来拐点时刻，产业进入加速发展期 04 4 选股逻辑及受益标的 05 5 风险提示 1 1 市场复盘：板块估值迎来重估，关注盈利端兑现 2 1.1 市场回顾：中小科创领跑全年行情，10月冲高后震荡分化 图：2025年初至今几大指数涨跌幅情况 3 资料来源：Wind、华西证券研究所 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 沪深300 上证指数 科创50 科创100 中证1000 科创板营收同比增速连续两季度改善：受宏观经济下行及行业周期波动影响，科创板2024年整体营收为14391.40亿元，同比微增 0.64%，高成长属性承压显著。2025 年 ...