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巴菲特“神指标”闪现抄底信号,美股估值回落引发买入热潮
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 10:13
这个被称为"巴菲特指标"的估值工具,是通过衡量美股整体市值(以Wilshire 5000指数为代表)与美国 GDP总量的比值来判断市场估值水平。目前,这一比例约为180%,处于去年9月以来的最低水平,尽管 近几周股市强势反弹,但该指标仍未回升至去年高点。 虽然目前的180%远高于疫情期间2020年初的低点(当时接近100%),但在美股估值整体回落、S&P 500指数自4月低点反弹约12%的背景下,市场参与者对是否继续"追高"或开始对冲风险正产生分歧。 投资公司50 Park Investments创始人亚当·萨尔罕表示:"这是一个关键指标,它能帮助交易者判断何时投 入资金。"他本人近期大举加仓科技股,"只要特朗普在贸易战上不'硬碰硬',投资人就会持续买入。" 目前市场也在密切关注下周的美联储会议以及接下来的财报季,它们可能成为左右市场下一阶段走势的 关键因素。 其他估值工具也传递出类似信息。例如,S&P 500目前的前瞻市盈率为20.6倍,虽然高于10年平均的 18.6倍,但比年初下跌了约8%,显示估值正逐步回归合理。 "股神"巴菲特最看重的估值指标,正释放出美股"抄底"信号,支持当前美股强劲反弹行情仍有上涨 ...
一周展望:美联储料再跟特朗普唱反调!黄金盯紧这一防线
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-03 11:07
鲍威尔又要和特朗普掐架?黄金或有更多回调空间!欧佩克+投下重磅炸弹,油价恐跌至50美元?"巴菲特指标"发出美股买入信号..... 过去一周,人们对贸易紧张局势的担忧进一步缓解,此外,尽管一系列经济数据喜忧参半,但最受关注的非农报告意外强劲也令经济增长放缓担忧有所降 温。 美股惊人地在短短两周内收复4月初特朗普"解放日"宣布对等关税以来的所有跌幅。标普500指数连续九天上涨,创2004年以来最长连涨纪录;道指亦录得日 线九连阳,为2023年12月以来最长连涨纪录。随着交易员削减对美联储的降息预期,美债收益率大幅拉升,收益率曲线熊市趋平。美元指数在非农数据公布 后上演深V反转,最终收于100大关上方。 大宗商品方面,黄金在市场风险偏好上升和美元、美债收益率走高的情况下承压,周五勉强收涨,但已连跌两周,本周跌幅为去年11月15日美国大选以来最 大。油价周五跌超1%,本周下跌8%,创3月以来最大单周跌幅。欧佩克+此前宣布将会议提前至5月3日以讨论6月产量计划,截至发稿,该联盟已同意6月增 产41.1万桶/日。 未来一周市场的注意力将转向央行利率决策,包括美联储和英国央行。经济数据方面,全球多国的服务业PMI将出炉。美 ...
巴菲特最青睐的估值指标发出美股买入信号
news flash· 2025-05-02 13:52
金十数据5月2日讯,巴菲特所推崇的一个关键估值指标显示美国股市相对使宜,这进一步支持了美国股 市强劲反弹仍有上涨空间的观点。这项"巴菲特指标"衡量的是以威尔希尔5000指数为基准的美国股市总 价值除以美国国内生产总值美元值的比率,该指标目前处于9月初以来的最低水平,即使是在最近几周 股市大幅反弹之后。 巴菲特最青睐的估值指标发出美股买入信号 ...
“巴菲特指标”亮起看涨信号! 经历剧烈动荡的美股迎历史级抄底机遇?
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-02 12:09
Core Viewpoint - The "Buffett Indicator," a key valuation metric praised by Warren Buffett, suggests that the overall valuation of the U.S. stock market is currently relatively cheap, supporting the view that the strong rebound in U.S. stocks since April may continue in the long term despite the ongoing trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - The "Buffett Indicator," which measures the total market value of U.S. stocks against the U.S. GDP, currently stands at 180%, the lowest level since early September, indicating that U.S. stock valuations are relatively inexpensive [1][3]. - This indicator is calculated by dividing the total market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 Index by the U.S. GDP, and it remains above the typical levels seen during market bottoms, such as the near 100% level during the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off in early 2020 [1][5]. Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index has rebounded by 12% since reaching a low in April, prompting traders to consider whether to continue betting on upward momentum or to buy on dips [3][4]. - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Buffett, has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index, showcasing its status as a "safe haven" during market turmoil, with a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion [6][7]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are preparing for upcoming earnings seasons and Federal Reserve meetings, which could influence the trends of U.S. and global stock markets [4]. - The importance of quantitative valuation metrics has increased this year as investors seek to determine if stock prices have become more attractive relative to fundamentals due to tariff-induced sell-offs [3][5]. Berkshire Hathaway's Position - Berkshire Hathaway's stock has risen nearly 17% this year, outperforming the S&P 500, which has declined by nearly 5% [7]. - The company holds a record cash reserve of $334.2 billion, enhancing its appeal as a safe investment during volatile market conditions [6][7].
“投资界春晚”即将上演:巴菲特如何看待特朗普政府的激进政策?
凤凰网财经· 2025-05-01 11:34
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting on May 3 is significant as it marks the 60th anniversary of Warren Buffett's acquisition of the company, and it may be his last full participation due to his advanced age [1] Group 1: Leadership Transition - Buffett's successor, Abel, is expected to take over as CEO soon, indicating a gradual end to the Buffett era, which may lead to significant changes in Berkshire's management and investment philosophy [2][3] - Abel's management style is more hands-on compared to Buffett's, and his ability to maintain Berkshire's culture of long-term investment and focus on quality companies will be closely scrutinized [2] - Buffett's children, Howard and Susan, may also influence the company's future through their control of trust funds holding Buffett's shares, although their influence will diminish over time as Buffett's shares are donated to charity [3] Group 2: Cash Reserves Management - Berkshire's cash reserves have reached a record $334 billion, equivalent to the foreign exchange reserves of the top twenty economies, with cash constituting the highest percentage of total assets since 1998 [5] - The market is eager to hear Buffett's insights on risk management and whether he will initiate large-scale acquisitions or stock buybacks [6] - Analysts suggest that investors expecting significant stock purchases may be disappointed, as Buffett has been cautious with new investments and has been a net seller of stocks in recent years [7] Group 3: Political and Economic Outlook - Buffett's views on the aggressive policies of the Trump administration, which have caused global market volatility, are anticipated to be a focal point during the meeting [9][10] - Despite his previous support for American resilience, Buffett has criticized Trump's tariff policies, indicating a potential divergence from the administration's economic strategies [9] - The meeting will also address how Buffett perceives the current U.S. stock market's valuation and whether he will shift focus to international markets, particularly Japan and Europe, which may offer more attractive investment opportunities [12] Group 4: Future of Berkshire Hathaway - The upcoming meeting is seen as a pivotal moment for Berkshire Hathaway, as Buffett's insights will serve as a critical guide for investors navigating the company's future in a post-Buffett era [13]
“申”挖数据 | 估值水温表
以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ,作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 当前A股巴菲特指标为71.82%,处于相对较高区间,目前处于安全区间。 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微,能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务,为您的财富保驾护航。 2、估值历史百分位水平: 数据速看: 1、巴菲特指标: 1、重点关注指数PE估值水平 重点关注指数PE估值水平 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 中证500 15.58 · - . 83.24 27.36 (↓3.97%) 科创50 29.71 · -A. 117.18 99.77 (↓0.12%) 18.94 .- 中证1000 - ● 144.82 36.37 (↓4.55%) 半导体 - ▲ . 219.12 33.21 · 112.9 (↓1.67%) 中证新能 11.21 · t . . 111.57 32.04 (↓9.86%) -- ▲. 69.26 15.36 · 北证50 63.82 (↑3.94%) 宽基指数方面: 目前市场主要宽基指数中创业板和中小100指数的PE估值(TTM)低 ...