Core Viewpoint - The rise of Haiyouhui Mall represents a quiet revolution in cross-border trade, leveraging global resource integration and policy benefits to reshape the underlying logic of global trade through a dual approach of "supply chain deepening + technological empowerment" [1][8]. Group 1: Policy and Market Strategy - The dynamic adjustment of tariff policies signifies a reshuffling of global resource allocation, with Haiyouhui Mall's founding team identifying policy opportunities early on, particularly through the "pilot" policy matrix formed by 165 cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones in China [3]. - Haiyouhui Mall benefits from the zero-tariff policy on 90% of goods among RCEP member countries, establishing overseas procurement centers in Vietnam and Thailand to directly connect with original manufacturers [3]. - For instance, the cost of Thai latex pillows is reduced by 40% compared to traditional trade through a "factory direct procurement + ASEAN tariff reduction" model, alongside 72-hour cross-border logistics to domestic bonded warehouses [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Quality Control - Haiyouhui Mall has established operational centers in key cross-border trade hubs such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Guangzhou, creating a multi-dimensional supply chain network characterized by "global selection - bonded warehousing - intelligent distribution" [5]. - A "three-dimensional review system" is implemented to ensure supply chain quality, requiring overseas brands to provide international certifications like FDA and CE, while domestic partners must be among the top 20% of merchants on platforms like Tmall International and JD International, with annual sales of no less than 50 million RMB [5]. - Only first or second-level authorized agents are permitted, eliminating risks associated with multi-layer distribution, and monthly evaluations of brand sales data, complaint rates, and return rates are conducted to maintain high activity levels in the platform's brand library [6]. Group 3: Innovation and Future Outlook - Unlike traditional cross-border e-commerce that relies on traffic thinking, Haiyouhui Mall builds a "customized cross-border e-commerce operating system," marking a transition from "policy arbitrage" to "value creation" at the intersection of tariff policy and technological revolution [8]. - The practices of Haiyouhui Mall demonstrate that the core of global competition lies in accurately decoding policy benefits, deeply integrating supply chain resources, and continuously innovating technological tools [8]. - As traditional trade grapples with tariff rates and traffic thinking reaches a bottleneck, Haiyouhui Mall is innovating its cost structure through model innovation, establishing a new ecosystem for global trade driven by "supply chain + technology" [8].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现，上游高炉、焦化开工率同比涨幅扩大。截至3月第四周，全国247家高 炉开工率（期末值，下同）同比增长5.6pct；焦化企业开工率同比增长5.6pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长 16.3pct；PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落4.6pct；山东地炼开工率同比回落3.6pct，PVC开工率同比回落 0.8pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同比增长2.6pct，全钢胎开工率同比回落1.4pct。 第二， 燃煤发电量和耗煤量延续了前两个月增速中枢。中电联统计截至3月27日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤 电厂当月累计发电量同比下降6.7%；燃煤电厂耗煤量月同比下降6.6%。这与前期数据相当，统计局数据1-2 月火电发电量同比-5.8%。不过需要指出的是：（1）火电是整体的一部分，1-2月发电量同比-1.3%； （2）发电量是统计规模以上发电企业，用电量统计整体，1-2月用电量同比1.3%；（3）1-2月用电量包含 高基数（去年同期同比11.0%）和工作日减少影响；（4）从3月PMI数据看，高耗能企业景气环比下行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The March EPMI increased by 10.6 points to 59.6, indicating a significant improvement in the economic climate, reaching the second-highest level for March since 2019, only behind March 2021 [1][6][8]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The production, order, and export indices rose by 21.6, 13.7, and 11.6 points respectively, reflecting a recovery in production as the operational season commenced [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio stands at 3.3, indicating a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance compared to the averages from 2021 to 2024 [2][10]. - Employment indicators improved by 5.8 points, marking the second consecutive month of positive change [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - All seven major emerging industries are in the expansion zone, with significant increases in the new generation information technology sector, which rose by 27.1 points to above 60 [4][14]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and new materials sectors saw increases of 16.4 and 9.0 points respectively, supported by government policies promoting emerging industries [4][14]. - The new energy vehicle sector increased by 8.1 points, reflecting the impact of policy incentives [4][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The EPMI's upward trend is crucial for assessing the manufacturing and economic climate, with expectations that the manufacturing PMI could return to around 51 in March [3][12]. - The upcoming months are critical for sustaining economic recovery, influenced by debt management policies and fiscal changes [5][15].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 今年春节呈现返乡大年的特征，按照交通部2月下旬发布的数据， 2025年1月旅客周转量同比增长 17.6%。从城市拥堵指数来看，节后开复工情况平稳推进，2月最后一周开复工节奏的影响应接近释放完毕。 截至2月28日，全国39城高峰拥堵延时指数录得1.80，相当于节前倒数第二周（1.13-1.17）均值的 102.0%。2月最后一周（2.24-2.28）地铁客运量相当于节前倒数第二周（1.13-1.17）均值的97.1%。 第二， 2月工业部门开工率农历同比涨跌互现，钢铁、汽车等重要部门开工率同比正增长。截至2月27日、 28日（正月三十、二月初一），全国247家高炉开工率（期末值，下同）相较去年农历同期（二月初一）增 长2.7pct。苯乙烯开工率相较去年农历同期（正月三十）增长18.1pct。PVC开工率相较去年农历同期（二 月初一）回落2.2pct。PTA相较去年农历同期（正月三十）同比回落3.9pct。山东地炼开工率相较去年农历 同期（正月三十）同比回落10.9pct。汽车半钢胎开工率较去年农历同期（正 ...