新加坡瀚亚投资：美国经济不确定性推动资金流向新兴市场 瑞讯银行：美国国债收益率受财政政策与全球资本行为主导 SMBC日兴证券：日本7月参议院选举结果或影响超长债收益率 汉堡商业银行：法国制造业温和回升德国服务业衰退拖累经济 【机构分析】 新加坡瀚亚投资公司称，美国经济不确定性将促使对新兴市场国家进行多元化投资，多元化投资有助于 分散风险并可能提供更丰富的回报。 （文章来源：新华财经） 瑞讯银行策略师指出，美国国债收益率的未来走势将主要受美国的财政选择以及全球投资者的行为影 响。地缘政治关系的恶化、对美元兴趣的减少以及对美国国债作为避险资产信心的下降等，这些都可能 削弱市场对美国国债的信心。 市场分析称，如果美国实施一项削弱美元价值的计划，可能会导致违约风险增加；这样的行动可能导致 巨大的市场波动，对全球经济造成冲击。如果美元大幅贬值，其幅度和速度可能超过1985年广场协议后 的贬值情况（当时美元在九个月内贬值了25%，三年内几乎贬值了一半）；当前美国的债务规模远超以 往，政策制定者还在计划进一步增加债务，这使得美元贬值的影响更加复杂。 SMBC日兴证券策略师指出，日本7月即将举行的参议院选举可能是影响超长期限 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a renewed interest in emerging market stocks as a result of the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's, with emerging markets being seen as the next bull market [1][2] - Bank of America has identified emerging markets as the most attractive investment option due to factors such as a weakening dollar, peak US Treasury yields, and a recovering Chinese economy [1][3] - JPMorgan has upgraded its rating on emerging market stocks from "neutral" to "overweight," citing easing US-China trade tensions and significant valuation advantages [1][3] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen by 8.55% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 Index has only increased by 1% during the same period, indicating a strong performance of emerging markets compared to US equities [1] - Following the announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration, a divergence in performance between emerging markets and US markets became evident, with the S&P 500 dropping over 5% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 7% [2] - Current allocations of US investors to emerging markets are only between 3%-5%, significantly lower than the MSCI Global Index's weight of 10.5%, suggesting room for growth in emerging market investments [3] Group 3 - Emerging markets are expected to outperform due to a combination of factors including a potential weakening dollar, historically low investor allocations, and high growth potential under discounted valuations [3][4] - India is highlighted as having the best long-term growth prospects among emerging markets, with Argentina also noted for its low valuations [3] - The current market environment is characterized by deep discount valuations and ongoing structural reforms, particularly in India, which may contribute to a more sustainable rally in emerging markets compared to previous short-lived surges [4]

Core Insights - Emerging market investment is likened to constructing skyscrapers in geologically active zones, requiring both the harnessing of energy from tectonic movements and the management of seismic risks [2] - Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment has developed a three-dimensional analytical framework to deconstruct the risk-return characteristics of emerging markets into quantifiable, hedgeable, and manageable investment elements [2] Risk Assessment - Risk assessment is a prerequisite for investment decisions, with the team creating an emerging market country scorecard that includes 12 core indicators such as political stability, external debt structure, and current account balance [2] - The team quantifies a country's repayment ability using the ratio of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads to months of foreign exchange reserves, and predicts political risk premiums through election cycles and policy continuity indices [2] - In a specific investment decision regarding a Latin American country, the team identified an inflation rate inversion beyond historical thresholds, combined with rising social unrest indices, leading to a decision to limit allocation to 30% of the benchmark, successfully avoiding subsequent currency crises [2] Asset Allocation - Asset allocation should establish a robust structure, with Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment employing a "core-satellite" strategy, focusing core positions on consumption and financial sectors while satellite positions capture cyclical opportunities in technology and resources [2] - The team has developed a unique "moat width" assessment model that considers local advantages, supply chain control, and government relationship resilience in industry selection [2] Liquidity Management - Liquidity management is a critical line of defense in risk control, with emerging markets exhibiting a "dual-track" liquidity characteristic, showing significant price differences between official and offshore markets, as well as between large-cap and small-cap stocks [3] - The team has constructed a liquidity stress testing model to simulate asset liquidity under extreme scenarios such as capital control upgrades and foreign capital withdrawal [3] - During a recent volatility in the Indian stock market, the portfolio utilized a pre-configured liquidity buffer to increase positions in quality assets during market panic, turning the crisis into an opportunity for excess returns [3] Currency Risk Hedging - Currency risk hedging reflects a refined strategy, with the team moving away from a single derivative hedging model to develop a "currency basket + natural hedge" tool [3] - This approach involves configuring a basket of currencies such as USD, EUR, and RMB based on export structures, while also holding stocks of resource-exporting companies to hedge against local currency depreciation [3] - During the Turkish lira crisis, this strategy kept the portfolio's currency risk exposure net below 5%, and the holdings in energy companies benefited from enhanced export competitiveness due to lira depreciation, partially offsetting exchange losses [3] Investment Philosophy - The essence of emerging market investment is a dynamic game of risk and return, with Shanghai Zhongguang Yunzhi Investment's practices demonstrating that systematic evaluation frameworks, structured allocation tools, and refined risk control systems can help investors balance geopolitical changes and economic growth potential [3] - This investment philosophy is characterized by neither blind risk-taking nor excessive caution, but rather achieving optimal solutions for risk premiums and return elasticity through data-driven decision-making [3]

Group 1 - Hedge funds are increasingly bearish on U.S. stocks, with short positions becoming a consensus among institutional investors due to high market uncertainty [1][3] - The confidence indicator for hedge fund managers regarding specific investment strategies fell to a historic low of 10% at the end of March, although it has slightly recovered since then [1][3] - The S&P 500 index experienced its longest consecutive rise since November, but "smart money" is preparing for further declines in the U.S. market [1][3] Group 2 - Three significant challenges are leading hedge funds to short U.S. stocks while betting on European and Japanese markets, which have not yet fully reflected in current market prices [3][5] - The investment themes are becoming clearer, with stock strategy managers reducing U.S. stock holdings and increasing bets on Europe and Japan due to anticipated weaker growth not being priced in [3][5] - Emerging market investments performed notably well, with a return of 6.3% in the first quarter, driven by a surge in the Chinese stock market, while the overall hedge fund industry returned only 1.7% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian SENSEX30 index has broken out of its trading range, indicating a potential upward trend supported by macroeconomic factors, strong corporate earnings, and foreign investment confidence [1][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The Reserve Bank of India has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%, marking its second rate cut of the year and shifting to a more accommodative monetary policy stance [3]. - The central bank's governor indicated that future monetary policy will either maintain the current stance or involve further rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Corporate Earnings - Several Indian banks reported strong earnings for Q4 2024, with Yes Bank's net profit increasing by 59% year-on-year and HDFC Bank's net profit rising by 6.9% [3]. - Bank stocks are leading the market rally, reflecting the positive corporate performance [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Emerging Asia ETF (520580) is highly correlated with the Indian market, making it a suitable vehicle for capturing investment opportunities in India [4][7]. - The ETF's net asset value (NAV) is directly influenced by the performance of the Indian stock market, allowing for real-time investment strategies based on market movements [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - If the Indian market experiences a significant rise with a low premium on the ETF (e.g., premium < 2%), it is advisable to buy the ETF and hold until the premium increases for selling [8]. - In cases of market overselling, characterized by KDJ oversold conditions and support levels being reached, the ETF can be used to capture rebound opportunities [9]. Group 5: Financing Options - The Emerging Asia ETF has been included as a margin trading product, indicating its quality and meeting high market requirements in terms of asset size, holder count, and liquidity [11]. - This inclusion allows for diverse investment strategies, enabling investors to leverage gains or short-sell for profits [11].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.41% at 3379.83 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.33% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.19%[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell slightly by 0.01% to 23782.14 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.39% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.35%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 3070.34 million HKD[1] Economic Policies - The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, with no exemptions for trade partners[3] - Ukraine is prepared to accept a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, contingent on military aid and intelligence sharing[3][8] Corporate Developments - Avatr Technology, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, plans to raise 7.8 billion HKD through a Hong Kong IPO, with a potential launch in May[4] - China National Railway plans to issue 30 billion RMB in bonds, which was oversubscribed by 0.68 times[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%[11] - China's PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2% in February, while CPI fell by 0.7%[11] Market Sentiment - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers indicated a nearly 50% chance of a recession in the U.S. this year due to various policy measures undermining confidence[8]