Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, with major companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum reaching historical highs, and the popular ETF, Huabao Non-ferrous ETF, hitting record levels as well [1][10] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 6, the non-ferrous metal sector led the market, with Zijin Mining's market capitalization surpassing 1 trillion yuan for the first time [1][10] - Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) saw a price increase of 4.21%, reaching a new historical high [1][10] - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 97.49 million yuan over the past five days, totaling 126 million yuan over the last 20 days, indicating strong market interest [1][10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that upcoming economic data may support further interest rate cuts, with expectations of a reduction exceeding 100 basis points this year [3][12] - Analysts from CITIC Securities believe that as long as the Fed remains in a rate-cutting cycle, non-ferrous metal prices will continue to have upward momentum [3][12] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the aluminum sector, concerns over the stability of electrolytic aluminum supply have arisen due to the indefinite shutdown of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique, with global demand expected to increase by 150,000 to 187,000 tons by 2026 [4][13] - The copper market is projected to face a supply gap exceeding 100,000 tons by 2026, driven by regional supply mismatches and optimistic demand forecasts from the U.S. and China [4][13] - In the gold market, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, are expected to drive safe-haven investments into precious metals, maintaining a strong outlook for gold prices [4][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - Various institutions are bullish on non-ferrous metal prices, with UBS raising its 2026 gold price target to $5,000 and Citigroup predicting copper prices to reach $15,000 per ton by mid-year [5][14] - The non-ferrous sector is anticipated to enter a bull market driven by a convergence of monetary policy, demand, and supply dynamics [5][14][6] Group 5: ETF Coverage - Huabao Non-ferrous ETF and its associated funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's performance across different economic cycles [7][15]

有券商表示，2025年，不仅黄金、白银等贵金属显著上涨，铜、铝等工业金属和钴、锂等能源金属也涨幅良好，多个金属创下历史 新高或阶段性新高，有色金属迎来超级周期。综合来看，有色金属超级周期的成因主要有三个：一是美联储降息周期美元呈走弱趋 势，推动以美元计价的有色金属价格上涨；二是供需缺口的支撑，铜等工业金属面临主要矿山品位下降、边际成本抬升以及前期矿 业资本开支萎缩带来的供给压力，需求端有人工智能、新能源、数据中心等基础设施建设的带动；三是国内"反内卷"政策发力，推 动过剩产能的优化，有利于促进供需平衡。 受盘面影响，有色、矿业相关ETF涨约4%。 | 代码 | 类型 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159690 | 王 | 有色矿业ETF招商 | 2.096 | 0.087 | 4.33% | | 159880 | 主 | 有色ETF基金 | 2.083 | 0.085 | 4.25% | | 560860 | 主 | 工业有色ETF | 1.697 | 0.067 | 4.11% | | 561330 | H | ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant rally, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF reaching a historical high and attracting substantial capital inflows, indicating strong market confidence in the sector's future performance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) has seen a price increase of 4.4%, marking a continuous four-day rise and a record high in trading volume, with real-time transaction amounts nearing 46.22 million yuan [1]. - As of January 5, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF's total scale reached 879 million yuan, also a historical high, with a net subscription of 36.6 million units reported [1]. - Key stocks within the sector, such as Vanadium Titanium Co. and Tin Industry Co., have hit the daily limit, while companies like Aluminum Corporation of China and Huayou Cobalt have seen increases exceeding 8% [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are driving up non-ferrous metal prices by devaluing the dollar, making metals cheaper and increasing global demand [2]. - Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for companies, which is expected to boost demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, 56 out of 60 companies in the leading non-ferrous ETF reported profits, with 44 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit, highlighting strong fundamentals in the sector [3]. - Notably, Chujiang New Materials reported a staggering 20-fold increase in net profit, with several other companies also experiencing significant profit growth [3]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The current non-ferrous bull market is characterized by demand from emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace, contrasting with previous cycles driven by real estate and infrastructure [3]. - Supply-side disruptions are exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance, further driving up metal prices and emphasizing their strategic value [3]. Group 5: Policy Support - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, including a joint plan from eight departments, are expected to enhance resource security and promote digital upgrades in the industry [3]. - Major infrastructure projects, such as the Yaxi Hydropower Project, are anticipated to create significant demand for non-ferrous metal materials [3]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to thrive, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary policy, demand, and supply dynamics [4][6]. - The potential for a prolonged super cycle in non-ferrous metals is supported by factors such as a weak dollar, policy backing, and industrial upgrades [4].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), reaching a historical high and attracting substantial capital inflows, indicating strong market confidence in the sector's future performance [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector led the market with a 94.73% increase in 2025, outperforming all other sectors [3][13]. - As of January 6, 2026, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) saw a price increase of 4.4%, marking a four-day consecutive rise and a trading volume of 46.22 million yuan, nearing the previous day's total [1][8]. - The ETF has recorded a net subscription of 36.6 million units, reflecting a total net inflow of 56.48 million yuan over the past four days, indicating strong investor interest [1][8]. Group 2: Fundamental Support - In the third quarter of 2025, 56 out of 60 companies in the leading non-ferrous ETF reported profits, with 44 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit, highlighting robust earnings in the sector [4][10]. - Notably, Chujiang New Materials reported a staggering 20-fold increase in net profit, while 10 other companies also saw triple-digit growth [4][10]. Group 3: Macro and Policy Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are driving up non-ferrous metal prices by devaluing the dollar, making metals cheaper and boosting global demand [3][9]. - Emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace are driving demand, while supply remains constrained, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and pushing prices higher [4][10]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, including the "anti-involution" initiative and significant infrastructure projects, are expected to support the sector [4][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to thrive, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary policy, demand, and supply dynamics in 2026 [4][11]. - The continuation of the "super cycle" in non-ferrous metals is likely contingent on the recovery of dollar credit, strategic stockpiling, and the effectiveness of supportive policies [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown remarkable performance in 2025, with significant gains in leading companies and ETFs, indicating strong market confidence and potential for continued growth [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 31, 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector continued its strong performance, with Jiangxi Copper hitting the daily limit, Yunnan Copper rising over 5%, and Zijin Mining increasing by more than 3% [1][9]. - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) saw a price increase of over 2.5% during the day and closed up 1.01%, reaching a new high since its listing [1][9]. - The Huabao ETF received a net subscription of 3 million units on the same day, reflecting strong investor interest in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][9]. Group 2: Annual Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals sector topped the industry performance rankings in 2025, with the Huabao ETF's index rising 91.67%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (18.41%) and the CSI 300 (17.66%) [3][10]. - Several key stocks doubled in price over the year, with Zijin Mining up 133.09%, Luoyang Molybdenum up 210.27%, and Jiangxi Copper up 176.92% [3][10]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is expected to benefit non-ferrous metals, as a weaker dollar typically boosts metal prices and reduces holding costs [5][12]. - Zijin Mining announced an expected net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, driven by rising prices and volumes of core mineral products [5][12]. - The strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is attributed to multiple factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, enhanced monetary attributes, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations [5][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of market conditions and drivers, suggesting a diversified investment approach through the Huabao ETF and its associated funds could be beneficial [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant inflow of funds into the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly through the Huabao ETF, indicating strong market expectations for future performance in this industry [1]. Group 1: Fund Inflows and Market Sentiment - As of the report, the Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) has seen a net subscription of 3.6 million units, with an additional 85.71 million yuan attracted over the previous five days, reflecting positive investor sentiment towards the non-ferrous metal sector [1]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is leading among 31 first-level sub-industries in the A-share market, driven by macroeconomic policies and structural supply-demand changes [3]. Group 2: Company Performance and Projections - Zijin Mining announced an expected net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, with a non-recurring net profit forecast of 47.5 to 48.5 billion yuan, up 50% to 53% [2][3]. - The growth in Zijin Mining's performance is attributed to increased production and rising prices of core mineral products, including approximately 90 tons of gold, 1.09 million tons of copper, and 437 tons of silver for 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - Analysts from Dongfang Securities and Guoxin Futures suggest that the upward trend in copper prices is driven by supply shortages and increasing demand, particularly in the context of global monetary easing and the rise of new demands in AI and renewable energy sectors [3]. - The article recommends a diversified investment approach through the Huabao ETF, which covers a wide range of non-ferrous metals, thereby mitigating risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant capital inflows and positive market sentiment [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic trends, with three main themes projected to influence commodity fluctuations by 2026: green inflation, anti-involution, and a rate-cutting cycle [1] - Analysts remain optimistic about the super cycle of non-ferrous metals, which is likely to continue until 2026, depending on the recovery of the US dollar credit, strategic reserve progress, and the effectiveness of anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 30, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) has a total size of 835 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index among three similar products in the market [2]

Market Overview - On December 30, 2025, A-shares experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a "10 consecutive days" increase, marking the longest streak of the year [1] - The market's trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the third consecutive day, indicating robust investor interest [1] Sector Performance - The chemical and non-ferrous metals sectors opened lower but rebounded, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 2.5% during the day, reaching a three-year high [1] - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) also saw a rise of 1.75%, reflecting strong investor sentiment [1] - Technology stocks remained active, particularly AI-related ETFs, with the AI-focused ETFs achieving new closing highs [1] ETF Highlights - The chemical ETF (516020) has accumulated a year-to-date increase of over 40%, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite [15][21] - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) received a net subscription of 28.8 million units, indicating strong market confidence in the sector's future performance [22] - The Hong Kong market saw a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.86%, driven by hard technology stocks [2] Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor market in China is projected to reach $176.9 billion in 2024, with a 15.9% year-on-year growth, and is expected to grow to $206.7 billion in 2025 [10] - The chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with specific sub-sectors like titanium dioxide and certain pesticides expected to see better conditions [21] - The domestic manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which may provide additional growth opportunities for the chemical industry [21] Notable Stocks - In the semiconductor sector, stocks like SMIC and other related companies have shown significant price increases, reflecting positive market sentiment [8] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, companies such as Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum reached historical highs, indicating strong performance within the industry [24]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Huabao ETF (159876) indicates strong investor confidence in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant net subscriptions and positive price movements, suggesting a bullish outlook for the industry [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Huabao ETF saw an intraday increase of 2.27%, currently up by 1.55%, with a real-time net subscription of 28.2 million units and an additional 15.36 million yuan attracted yesterday, reflecting strong market interest [1]. - Key constituent stocks such as Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum reached new highs, while Hai Liang, China Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt rose over 4% [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Yun Aluminum: +5.67%, market cap of 108.6 billion yuan, trading volume of 1.625 billion yuan [2]. - Tianshan Aluminum: +4.86%, market cap of 75.3 billion yuan, trading volume of 1.023 billion yuan [2]. - Hai Liang: +4.85%, market cap of 30.2 billion yuan, trading volume of 393 million yuan [2]. - China Aluminum: +4.54%, market cap of 201.7 billion yuan, trading volume of 4.406 billion yuan [2]. - Huayou Cobalt: +4.42%, market cap of 129 billion yuan, trading volume of 4.911 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need for large-scale mergers and restructuring in the aluminum and copper industries to enhance competitiveness and scale [2]. - The aluminum market is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a traditional commodity to a core energy value carrier, with potential for independent price increases driven by the copper-aluminum ratio and rising demand for aluminum [3]. - The current phase of the industry is characterized by a reversal in fundamentals, a "de-involution" policy, and opportunities arising from AI developments, which are expected to lead to more stable returns and a focus on investment efficiency [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876), which has seen a significant increase in net subscriptions and is expected to continue its upward trend [1][2] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) experienced a price drop of 2% at the opening but quickly rebounded, currently showing a gain of 0.52%, indicating resilience in the market [1] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that by 2026, three main themes (green inflation, anti-involution, and interest rate cuts) will continue to drive commodity price fluctuations, with a positive outlook for basic metals like copper and aluminum due to emerging industries [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 29, the Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) has a total size of 794 million yuan, making it the largest ETF among three products tracking the same index in the market [2]