炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：六里投资报 12月29日，著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，在一场对话中对当下热议的白银走势，人民币汇 率，以及市场走向等做出了观点鲜明的判断，并展望了2026年的政策大方向。 洪灝指出，贵金属方面，因为最近两个星期涨得太疯狂，比如现在白银的盘面情况； 让人想到1980年历史性的逼空行情，当时白银涨到了50美元一盎司。 但即便在那次逼空行情中，白银也没有出现连续8个月上涨的情况， 而且，这个月白银的大阳线，远远超过了80年代顶部的那根大阳线。 因此，洪灝建议应该见好就收，等待明年再布局。 洪灝早在半年前，就已明确提示白银的投资机会--银价绝对会创历史新高，投资报也最早予以跟踪分 析，并给出了具体的投资标的，点此查看。 当时国内唯一的这只白银基金其净值尚在1元附近，如今净值早已翻倍，其二级市场价格更是大涨200% 多。 但是， 洪灝同时指出，贵金属基于美元信用走弱的长线逻辑依然成立， 无论是黄金还是其他贵金属，涨势还没有结束。 财政政策上，他认为当前广义财政赤字率偏低， 面对经济数据走软，应大幅提升至20%左右以提振经济，并预计2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Delong Holdings (德尔股份), is expanding its solid-state battery applications beyond the electric vehicle market to include humanoid robots, two-wheeled electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics [1] Group 1 - The company is actively developing solid-state battery applications in various fields [1] - The focus on humanoid robots and two-wheeled electric vehicles indicates a diversification strategy [1] - Energy storage and consumer electronics are also targeted for solid-state battery applications, showcasing the company's broad market approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term vision in investment and career development, highlighting the need to focus on valuable opportunities rather than short-term gains [6][7]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author reflects on the limitations of focusing on buybacks and reinvestments, realizing that this approach led to missed opportunities that could have significantly impacted their career [3][4]. - A strategy is proposed to accumulate valuable skills from current roles while avoiding projects that lack long-term value [5]. - The importance of recognizing and seizing opportunities during market trends is discussed, suggesting that one should not only chase the next trend but also take time to reflect and connect past experiences [11][12]. Group 2: Market Insights - The article notes that as of November 2023, the A-share IPO scale has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with Hong Kong's IPO exceeding 260 billion HKD, making it the largest globally [14][17]. - It is mentioned that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange rank first, fifth, and eighth respectively in global IPO scale for the year [14]. Group 3: Personal Development - The author stresses the importance of broadening perspectives by observing various industries and learning from experienced colleagues, which can enhance professional capabilities [19][22]. - The concept of "opening one's eyes" to the world is introduced, suggesting that exposure to different environments and experiences can lead to greater insights and understanding [25][30].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up, achieving a nine-day winning streak, while the ChiNext Index fell over 1% at one point [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.14 trillion, a decrease of 20.9 billion from the previous trading day [1] - By the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 0.66% [1] Commodity Market Dynamics - A significant surge in precious metals was noted, particularly with the national investment silver LOF fund experiencing extreme volatility, moving from consecutive gains to losses [5][6] - The market saw a rapid influx of arbitrage funds, with 1.7 billion entering in just five trading days, compared to the fund's initial size of just over 800 million at the beginning of the year [7][10] - Silver prices experienced wild fluctuations, reaching highs of $80 per ounce before a sharp drop, followed by a strong rebound, with the main silver futures rising nearly 10% [11][12] Consumer Sector Insights - The Hong Kong stock market's consumer sector has attracted significant southbound capital, primarily driven by institutional defensive repositioning due to weak domestic consumption data [15] - November economic data indicated weakness in both consumption and investment, raising concerns about the real estate market and potential withdrawal of consumer subsidies [16] - Despite the pessimistic outlook, this presents an opportunity for left-side positioning, as many consumer sectors are trading at historical low valuations, particularly in retail and consumer services [17][18] AI Sector Trends - The AI sector has been a dominant theme throughout the year, but recent market behavior indicates a divergence in investment logic, with a shift towards profitability rather than just narrative [20][21] - The performance of major tech stocks in the U.S. has lagged behind the market, while AI-related upstream resources like copper have seen significant gains [21] - There remains potential for AI investments in the upcoming year, particularly in the first half, driven by expectations of overseas monetary easing and seasonal market movements [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to enter a bull market in 2025, supported by policies, valuations, earnings, and capital, with a notable differentiation in market segments anticipated in 2026 as the "14th Five-Year Plan" begins [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The core variable driving the stock market in 2026 is expected to be earnings, transitioning from valuation-driven to earnings-driven performance, with all sectors presenting investment opportunities [2] - The market style in 2026 is anticipated to be more balanced compared to 2025, as various sectors, including traditional industries, are expected to show earnings recovery and valuation repair [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - In 2026, institutional funds are likely to shift towards new consensus areas beyond just technology growth sectors, expanding into traditional industries as the overall market enters an earnings release phase [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving domestic consumption and technological self-reliance, indicating significant long-term investment opportunities in these areas [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors should focus on balancing long-term and short-term investment strategies, adjusting their portfolio based on individual risk preferences and return expectations [4] - For long-term investments, attention should be paid to industry trends and fundamental changes, while short-term opportunities require monitoring of price fluctuations and relative valuations [4] Group 4: Changes in Valuation Logic - The emphasis on "technological self-reliance" in the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reshape the valuation system of A-shares, with a potential reduction in mid-term volatility of technology stock valuations [6] - The focus on core technology autonomy and industry policy support may increase the weight of non-financial indicators in valuation assessments [6] - Valuation logic in the technology sector may evolve from a focus on individual segments to a more integrated approach across entire industry chains, creating a linked valuation framework [6] Group 5: Recommendations for 2026 - A balanced and long-term investment approach is recommended for 2026, with a focus on fundamental factors such as corporate earnings, while avoiding speculative trading [7] - The current market conditions suggest that equity assets still hold mid-to-high investment value, despite some high valuations potentially leading to short-term volatility [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the fiscal policy for 2025 is set to be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit scale increasing by 39% and broad deficit scale by 27% [1][12][13] - The government debt net supply is expected to reach a recent high, with a notable increase in the issuance pace of bonds, particularly in the first half of 2025, where net supply is projected to increase by 128% year-on-year [1][14] - Fiscal expenditure trends are expected to show a "U" shape in 2024 and a "front high and back low" pattern in 2025, aligning with economic and equity asset trends [1][13] Group 2 - One highlight in the fiscal sector for 2025 is the improvement in the structure of fiscal revenue, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a commitment to reduce reliance on non-tax income [1][16] - Tax revenue is expected to perform well in the second half of the year, driven by active industries and tax policy adjustments, contrasting with the decline in non-tax revenue [1][17] Group 3 - Another highlight in the fiscal sector for 2025 is the expansion of debt resolution methods and the diversification of debt resolution tools, including the issuance of special new bonds and the use of local fiscal funds to pay for existing PPP project costs [2][19] - The debt resolution measures are expected to benefit small and micro enterprises by improving cash flow [2][19] Group 4 - A constraint on the economy in 2025 is the anticipated slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of the year, attributed to various factors including the front-loading of fiscal funds and the diversion of debt funds to debt resolution [2][22][23] - The decline in infrastructure investment growth is expected to be predictable, with narrow infrastructure investment growth dropping from 10.4% in the first five months to 0.1% by November [2][22] Group 5 - Looking ahead to 2026, the central economic work conference has indicated that a "more proactive fiscal policy" will continue, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal intensity compared to 2025 [3][25] - The narrow target deficit rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level of 4.0%, with a small chance of increasing to 4.2%, reflecting a cautious approach to fiscal policy [3][25][26] Group 6 - The broad deficit is expected to see structural adjustments, with new special bonds projected to increase from 4.6 trillion yuan to around 5 trillion yuan, focusing on optimizing the use of local government special bonds [3][28] - The total government debt net supply is anticipated to be approximately 14.9 trillion yuan in 2026, an increase of about 5.4 billion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a continued expansion of fiscal policy [3][30] Group 7 - Fiscal revenue growth is projected to rebound to around 3%-5% in 2026, driven by price increases and the effects of tax policy adjustments [3][33] - The expected growth in fiscal expenditure is anticipated to slow to 3.9%, down from 5.9% in 2025, reflecting limited debt expansion [3][34] Group 8 - The main driver for fixed asset investment will be the 500 billion yuan new policy financial tools, which are expected to leverage credit significantly and support investment growth in 2026 [3][36] - The focus on effective investment will also include adjustments to special bonds and support for private sector participation in key projects [3][39] Group 9 - In the consumption sector, there is an expected structural shift towards new types of consumption and service consumption, with a focus on releasing the potential of service consumption [3][41] - The anticipated growth in durable goods consumption is expected to slow, while service consumption areas such as tourism and elderly care are projected to see increased demand [3][41] Group 10 - The debt resolution area is expected to expand to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear debts owed by local governments to enterprises [3][43] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for multiple measures to mitigate risks associated with local government financing platforms [3][43] Group 11 - The improvement of the local tax system is highlighted as a key focus for 2026, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [3][45] - The reforms aim to create incentives for local tax revenue generation and shift the competitive focus from production to consumption [3][45]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3940.95, up by 0.53% with an increase of 20.97 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13486.42, up by 0.88% with an increase of 117.43 points [2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4634.06, up by 0.29% with an increase of 13.32 points [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3229.58, up by 0.77% with an increase of 24.57 points [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1352.13, up by 0.90% with an increase of 12.11 points [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 1445.55, up by 0.39% with an increase of 5.61 points [2] Sector Rankings - The top five sectors by growth include Defense and Military Industry (2.88%), Electronics (2.12%), Building Materials (1.72%), Light Industry Manufacturing (1.69%), and Machinery Equipment (1.49%) [3] - The sectors with the largest declines include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (-0.85%), Coal (-0.70%), Food and Beverage (-0.36%), Banking (-0.30%), and Media (0.01%) [3] Market Outlook - The market showed a collective rise with the three major indices increasing, indicating a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive days of gains [4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.88 trillion, a decrease of 196 billion from the previous trading day [5] - The report highlights a structural transformation at the bottom of the economic cycle, with manufacturing showing resilience and new industries emerging as bright spots [5] - It is suggested to focus on sectors such as dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer goods for potential investment opportunities [5]

12月24日，A股市场早盘窄幅震荡，三大指数集体翻红。截至午盘，沪指涨0.24%，深成指涨0.31%，创 业板指涨0.08%。沪深两市半日成交额1.16万亿，较上个交易日缩量895亿。全市场超3800只个股上涨。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3929.25 | 9.27 | 0.24% | 4659亿 | | 深证成指 | 13410.05 | 41.06 | 0.31% | 6828亿 | | 万得全A | 6345.55 | 30.17 | 0.48% | 11592亿 | | 科创综指 | 1615.07 | 12.48 | 0.78% | 1171亿 | | 创业板指 | 3207.59 | 2.58 | 0.08% | 3083亿 | | 北证50 | 1442.57 | 2.63 | 0.18% | 106亿 | 从板块来看，商业航天概念持续走强，近20只成分股涨停，其中超捷股份20cm涨停，神剑股份5连板， 九鼎新材、合众思壮、再升科技涨停。消息面上，据证监会网上办事服务平台披露，近日 ...

Group 1 - Multiple fund managers remain optimistic about the equity market for the upcoming year, discussing investment opportunities in AI technology, consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals during recent strategy meetings [1][17] - Sunac China has completed a comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, relieving approximately $9.6 billion in existing debt and significantly reducing overall repayment pressure by nearly 60 billion yuan [2][18] - The listing of Easy Health Group on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange saw its stock price surge by 158.82% on the first day, achieving a market capitalization of 12.1 billion HKD, marking it as one of the few profitable digital health companies [4][20] Group 2 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the significant growth potential in the real estate sector during the national housing and urban construction work conference [8][25] - The central economic work conference calls for the formulation and implementation of further deepening state-owned enterprise reforms in 2026, indicating a new cycle of reform [9][26] - The recent strengthening of the RMB, nearing the 7.0 mark against the USD, is attributed to positive economic data and increased willingness among exporters to convert their earnings [10][27] Group 3 - National Pension Insurance Co. is undergoing a second round of capital increase, with a total amount of 500 million yuan planned, reflecting a 20% increase in share value compared to the previous year [11][28] - The securities industry is expected to continue its transformation, focusing on differentiated development and enhancing operational efficiency as it moves towards 2025 [12][29][30] - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming for sustained economic recovery [13][31]

● 本报记者 魏昭宇 近期，国泰基金、招商基金、汇丰晋信基金、长城基金等多家公募机构召开了2026年度策略会，多位基 金经理围绕AI科技、消费、创新药等热门板块的后续投资机遇展开深度探讨。 展望2026年，有业内人士表示，市场值得乐观期待，上涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向"盈利 +估值"双重驱动。2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，相关产业政策及宏观经济支持政策值得期待。明年上 市公司整体业绩有望进一步改善，结构性亮点大概率增多，有利于提高市场风险偏好。当前A股自由流 通市值与居民存款的比值仍然处于相对较低的水平，股票市场或迎来更多新增资金。此外，当前市场估 值结构较为健康，并未出现整体过热的情况。 企业整体业绩大概率提升 从宏观层面来看，招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛认为，中国经济增长模式逐渐转向创新驱动，基建 和高技术产业拉动经济增长。权益方面，市场目前开启了一轮估值修复与资产轮动逻辑驱动的行情。综 合来看，2026年消费有望缓慢抬升，出口有韧性，商品价格温和走高，进而带动名义GDP上行，企业业 绩或持续修复，这将成为市场的基本面支撑。A股行情或逐渐过渡至公司业绩支撑的"缓而慢"的格局。 国泰基金宏观策 ...