证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 "十五五"开端的"稳中求进" 事件描述 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中 国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 事件点评 站在"十五五"开端的"稳中求进"。会议重申"稳中求进"总基调，但在"十四五" 与"十五五"交接的节点上，其内涵发生了战略扩容。"稳"的核心逻辑从单纯的 经济增速维稳延伸至国家安全与发展主动权的统筹，特别是要"更好统筹国内 经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，以确保护航国内产业链、供应链的安全。而"进"则 承载了为"十五五"确立新坐标的使命，通过"适度宽松"的政策环境支持技术突 破和产业升级，确保新旧动能转换期间经济不失速。 货币宽松面临"两大约束"，降息或将"谨慎"。尽管货币政策定调转向"适度宽 松"，但我们认为价格型工具的使用将面临掣肘。首先是人民币汇率的硬约束， 在应对"国际经贸斗争"背景下，需防止中美利差倒挂过大引发资本外流；其次 是商业银行净息差的底线约束，需维护金融系统稳定。因此，预计未来央行将 更多依赖降准、买债等"量"的工具，降息路径大概率采取"存款利率先行"的非 对称模式。 财 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 9 日 政治局会议点评 提质增效 行稳致远 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中 国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 外部环境关注度有所上升。在宏观形势的判断上，本次会议对 2025 年及 过去五年的经济成就给予了肯定，认为'十四五'规划目标将顺利实 现。对于下一阶段的政策目标，本次会议首次提出'更好统筹国内经济 工作和国际经贸斗争'，显示当前外部环境不确定性加大背景下，政策 对于外部环境的关注度有所上升。 开局'十五五'，提质增效，行稳致远。宏观政策定调上，延续了'稳 中求进'的总基调的同时以'提质增效'代替去年的'以进促稳'；强 调'发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度'； 同时指出'增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性'，'持续扩大内需、优化供 给、做优增量、盘活存量'，可见 2026 年宏观政策 ...

中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继 续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动， 加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共 赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大， 努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 ...

综合今天最新落地的政治局会议和座谈会内容来看，基本预示了即将落地的经济工作会议的主基调： （来源：研讯社） 今日午间，12月政治局会议落地：中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 12月政治局会议是中央经济工作会议的前瞻，因此今天会议内容比较简洁，主要内容都要等经济工作会 议落地。今天主要定了个主基调，提到明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 同时，今天盘后据报道，中共中央在中南海召开党外人士座谈会，就今年经济形势和明年经济工作听取 各民主党派中央、全国工商联负责人和无党派人士代表的意见建议。 座谈会也是中央经济工作会议召开之前的惯例，目的就是广泛听取意见建议。因此今天政治局会议和座 谈会双双落地之后，就意味着中央经济工作会议很快就要召开了，本周落地是大概率事件。 座谈会上，重要讲话再次强调坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好 统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化 供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes "high-quality development" as a primary goal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, continuing the focus from the 14th Five-Year Plan and highlighting the need for a balanced approach between stability and progress [1][2] Group 1: Stability and Progress - "Stability" is identified as the foundation for high-quality development, requiring a focus on employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to maintain economic stability [3] - "Progress" represents the goal of high-quality development, necessitating reforms in quality, efficiency, and driving forces to achieve a balance between qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth [4] Group 2: Methodological Approach - The principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" serves as a methodological framework for economic work, advocating for macroeconomic regulation and the effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policies [5] - Emphasizing the need for a systematic approach, the strategy calls for a balance between government and market roles, speed and quality, and development and safety [5] Group 3: Coordinated Development - The strategy promotes "point" and "surface" coordination, focusing on key issues while ensuring overall systemic progress, enhancing the internal dynamics of high-quality development [6][8] - Identifying key breakthrough areas in industrial development, the strategy emphasizes the importance of focusing on the real economy and technological innovation to drive high-quality development [7] Group 4: Domestic and International Integration - Strengthening the domestic cycle is crucial for high-quality development, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumption as a primary driver of economic growth [11] - The strategy highlights the importance of facilitating both domestic and international dual circulation, promoting an open and competitive market environment to enhance the quality and efficiency of high-quality development [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "high-quality development" as a primary goal for China's 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the need for a balanced approach between stability and progress in economic and social development [1][2][5]. Group 1: Stability and Progress - "Stability" is identified as a prerequisite for high-quality development, reflecting a methodology that respects objective laws and emphasizes practical realities [3]. - The current development environment is characterized by complex changes, necessitating a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations to ensure economic operations remain within a reasonable range [3][5]. - "Progress" is framed as the goal and direction of high-quality development, requiring transformative changes in quality, efficiency, and momentum to achieve a balance between qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth [4][5]. Group 2: Dynamic Balance - The article stresses the need for a dynamic balance between "stability" and "progress," which serves as a guiding principle for economic work, advocating for effective macroeconomic regulation and policy implementation [5]. - It highlights the importance of maintaining a systematic view to harmonize government and market roles, speed and quality, and development and safety [5]. Group 3: Coordinated Development - The concept of "point" and "surface" coordination is introduced, emphasizing the need for targeted breakthroughs in key areas while ensuring overall systemic advancement [6][7]. - The article suggests that breakthroughs in core issues can lead to broader systemic improvements, particularly in the context of developing a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [7][8]. Group 4: Internal and External Integration - The article discusses the necessity of integrating internal and external development, advocating for a strong domestic cycle while promoting international cooperation and trade [10][12]. - It notes that domestic consumption is a significant driver of economic growth, with a focus on enhancing consumer demand and optimizing investment structures [11][12]. Group 5: Institutional Support - The article calls for the establishment of a robust institutional framework to support high-quality development, including the construction of a high-level socialist market economy and the removal of barriers to market integration [9][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of creating a conducive business environment to facilitate the efficient allocation of resources and promote innovation [9][13].

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry must achieve high-quality development through a gradual process, emphasizing stability before progress and promoting stability through advancement [1] Group 1: Financial Contributions - The banking and insurance sectors have provided an additional 170 trillion yuan to the real economy through various means such as credit, bonds, and equity [1] - The balance of loans to inclusive small and micro enterprises stands at 36 trillion yuan, with interest rates decreasing by 2 percentage points [1] Group 2: Financial Industry Development - Financial openness is accelerating, significantly enhancing the international competitiveness and influence of the financial sector [1] - Different types of banking institutions should identify their positioning to achieve specialized operations and differentiated development, contributing to a diverse, orderly, and sustainable financial ecosystem [1] Group 3: Institutional Positioning - Large state-owned banks should focus on steady progress, enhance their strengths, accelerate digital transformation, leverage comprehensive operational advantages, and improve international operational capabilities to support higher levels of openness [1] - Nationwide joint-stock banks should adhere to differentiated development positioning, concentrate on niche areas and key regions, engage in competitive differentiation, and create value for clients through specialization [1] - Small and medium-sized banks should maintain their market positioning, utilize geographical and relational advantages, serve local economies, small and medium enterprises, and rural revitalization, and focus on developing business characteristics [1]

Core Insights - Shandong's GDP for the first three quarters of 2023 reached 77,115 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.6% at constant prices, indicating a stable and improving economic performance [1][4][6] Economic Drivers - The "three driving forces" of consumption, investment, and exports showed stable and increasing trends, with retail sales totaling 30,386.1 billion yuan, also growing by 5.6% [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.7%, but manufacturing investment rose by 3.6%, with industrial investment growing by 7.7%, highlighting the resilience of Shandong's economy [2] - Total goods import and export volume reached 2.62 trillion yuan, growing by 5.5%, indicating an ongoing improvement in trade structure [2] Sector Performance - The agricultural sector remained stable with a total output value growth of 4.3%, while industrial production saw a significant increase with a 7.8% growth in value added for large-scale industries [3] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, automotive, and electronics showed robust growth, with value added increasing by 12.0%, 17.0%, and 16.6% respectively [3] - The service sector also performed well, with revenue from large-scale service industries growing by 5.4% from January to August [3] Future Outlook - Shandong is on track to exceed the 10 trillion yuan GDP milestone, with a projected GDP of 98,565.8 billion yuan for 2024, marking a growth of 5.7% [5] - The province aims to achieve a GDP growth of over 5% this year, aligning with the goals set in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][6] - The economic performance in the first three quarters lays a solid foundation for the successful completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel industry maintains a weak - stable state with dual growth in supply and demand, but price elasticity is limited. It is recommended not to participate in directional speculative trading for now [3]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, they have low valuations and cost support. It is advisable to go long on silicon - iron on dips [3]. - Regarding coking coal and coke, the expectation of the second round of coke price increase is strengthening, but it is not recommended to chase the rise. Industrial clients can consider selling hedging on part of the spot when the price soars [3]. - For iron ore, it is relatively weak compared to other commodities. Short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Weekly industrial data shows improvement, with social inventory reduction and a weak - stable supply - demand balance. The inventory level is similar to 2023 and higher than last year, suppressing price elasticity. "Silver October" may see a peak in demand, but the market is cautious. Cost - end differentiation may squeeze steel mill profits. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for single - side trading, and look for opportunities to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread below 150 for the 01 contract in arbitrage trading [3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - They have low production profits, limited supply growth, and cost support due to rising coal prices. High iron - water production drives strong demand. Current silicon - iron inventory is normal, and the futures valuation is not high. With a warm macro - environment, it is advisable to go long on silicon - iron on dips [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The probability of the second round of coke price increase is high next week. The coking coal spot market is strong, with most prices hitting new highs this year due to supply disruptions and high iron - water demand. However, the high price may face uncertainty in breaking through previous highs, and it may be difficult to implement the coke price increase due to weak downstream demand. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and industrial clients can consider selling hedging [3]. Iron Ore - Commodities are generally rising, but iron ore is relatively weak due to the marginal weakening of supply - demand. Iron - water production is gradually decreasing, and there is a risk of supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter. The expected shipment from Simandou still restricts the price ceiling. Short - term observation is recommended [3]. 4. Key Data on October 23 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts**: RB2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; HC2605 at 3271 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; I2605 at 756 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; J2605 at 1896 yuan/ton, up 3.02%; JM2605 at 1325 yuan/ton, up 4.17% [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (Main Contracts)**: RB2601 closed at 3071 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; HC2601 at 3256 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; I2601 at 777 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; J2601 at 1768 yuan/ton, up 4.21%; JM2601 at 1258.5 yuan/ton, up 5.14% [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: RB2601 - 2605 was - 57 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; I2601 - 2605 was 21 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 - 2605 was - 128 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 66.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.95; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.40; the rebar's on - paper profit was - 152.8 yuan/ton; the coking on - paper profit was 94.2 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: Shanghai rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [1]. - **Others**: Super - special powder at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; Coking coal at Ganqimao Port was 1310 yuan/ton, unchanged; Quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1]. - **Basis**: HC main contract basis was 54 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; RB main contract basis was 159 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; I main contract basis was 38 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 141.6 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan; JM main contract basis was 81.5 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan [1].

Core Viewpoint - The future of the mainland real estate market is expected to maintain a policy tone of "stability while seeking progress and precise measures" [1][7]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Local governments may gain greater autonomy to make micro-adjustments in policies such as purchase restrictions, loan limits, and public housing fund policies, although the "housing is for living, not for speculation" principle in core cities will remain unchanged [1][7]. - There is a suggestion for significant policy adjustments, including the complete removal of housing purchase restrictions and further reductions in transaction taxes and housing loan interest rates to support reasonable demand [4]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Housing Supply - The acceleration of three major projects: affordable housing construction, urban village renovation, and dual-use public infrastructure development is anticipated, serving as a key driver for high-quality housing supply transformation and investment stability [1][7]. - Recommendations include lowering the long-term housing provident fund loan interest rate by 25 basis points and reducing the additional interest rate for second-home loans by approximately 0.2 percentage points in major cities [4]. Group 3: Financial Support and Regulation - Financial regulatory bodies are expected to focus on "precise drip irrigation" in their financial support for real estate companies, with a continued strict curtailment of the trends of financialization and bubble formation in the real estate sector [1][7].