Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector has entered an adjustment phase, with the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing a decline of over 8% from October 2 to November 12 [1] Group 1: Reasons for Recent Adjustment - The US dollar index has strengthened, rising from 96 to 100 since September 17, creating liquidity pressure on the Hong Kong market, particularly affecting technology assets sensitive to capital flows [3] - The US government shutdown for 42 days has led to the interruption of key economic data releases, causing global funds to flow out of interest-rate-sensitive Hong Kong technology assets [5] - Investors are switching styles, with some choosing to take profits as the Shanghai Composite Index approaches the psychological level of 4000 points, reallocating funds to lower-volatility, dividend-stable assets, which has put short-term selling pressure on the Hong Kong technology sector [6] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Hong Kong Technology - The long-term outlook for Hong Kong technology remains supported, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is not yet over, and a long-term weakening of the US dollar is likely [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Technology Index is 23.08, lower than other major global technology indices, indicating a higher investment value [9] Group 3: Investment Tools for Hong Kong Technology - The company offers two ETFs tracking the Hong Kong index: the Huaan Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF and the Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, which can be used to gain exposure to the Hong Kong technology sector [12] - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index focuses on leading internet companies in Hong Kong, with a high industry concentration and a current fund size of 1.39 billion [13] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has a broader industry distribution, covering new energy vehicles and semiconductors, and serves as a core tool for overall exposure to the Hong Kong technology sector [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since October 15, 2024, with a central parity rate of 7.0833 on November 12, 2023, indicating a potential for continued strength in the short term [1][6]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has declined by 6.8% year-to-date, reflecting a challenging environment for the dollar amid expectations of economic data releases that could influence Federal Reserve policy [2][4]. - The recent passing of a temporary funding bill by the US Congress has ended a record 43-day government shutdown, which had cast a shadow over the US economic outlook [4]. - Analysts predict that the combination of a weakening dollar and a strong domestic economic performance in China will support the yuan's resilience [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain a stable yuan exchange rate while implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth [6][7]. - The PBOC's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes the need to prevent excessive fluctuations in the yuan and to keep it at a reasonable and balanced level [7]. - UBS Global Research expresses optimism about the Chinese stock market and the yuan, anticipating improved confidence and credit growth in emerging markets by 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a complex upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [5]. Price Movement - As of the latest report, London gold is priced at $4130.98 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.1% and a low of $4098.41 during the session [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures have also risen, currently at $4134.4 per ounce, reflecting a 0.44% increase with a session high of $4151.5 [3][4]. Market Analysis - Analysts indicate that the current gold price volatility is influenced by profit-taking and market attention, with overall support from risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts [5]. - The global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks are significant factors pushing gold prices higher, while the strength of the US dollar may exert pressure on gold prices [5]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies suggest that ordinary investors should avoid short-term high-risk trades and consider including gold in long-term asset allocations [6]. - A phased investment approach is recommended, focusing on Federal Reserve policy signals and central bank gold purchases, while being mindful of the dollar's credit changes [6].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to pressure on global risk assets through two main channels [1] Group 1: Impact on Currency and Commodities - A decline in interest rate cut expectations supports the US dollar index in the short term, which, as a core global pricing currency, makes dollar-denominated commodities and emerging market assets less attractive, potentially causing capital to flow back to dollar assets [1] - The continued restrictive monetary policy will elevate real interest rates, negatively impacting the valuation logic of risk assets, particularly high-valuation growth assets, as rising discount rates compress their valuation space [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Recent market performance indicates a pullback in the US Nasdaq index, emerging market equities, and cyclical commodities like oil, reflecting the pressure on risk assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has shown strong resilience against the US dollar, maintaining a stable and slightly strong trend since surpassing the 7.1 mark on October 15, despite fluctuations in the US dollar index [1][3]. Group 1: Current Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB's central parity against the US dollar has slightly depreciated over two consecutive days, with rates reported at 7.0856 and 7.0866 on November 10 and 11, respectively, influenced by a slight increase in the US dollar index [3]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 97.96, the BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index hit 104.19, and the SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index stood at 92.34, all marking new highs since mid-April [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Stability - The RMB's strength is supported by various factors, including the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts and the impact of tariff policies on the US economy, which limit the upward potential of the US dollar index [3]. - Domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies are expected to stabilize economic operations in the fourth quarter, providing solid internal support for the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The chief economist at CITIC Securities expresses an optimistic long-term outlook for the RMB, predicting a moderate appreciation next year, provided that exports do not experience unexpected changes [4]. - The overall trend of stability in the RMB exchange rate remains unchanged, with its inherent resilience expected to continue amid mixed market conditions [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US private - sector employment data is cooling, with the ADP small - non - farm employment in October decreasing by 45,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low. There is uncertainty in economic assessment due to potential missing economic data. In the US, the stock market is divided, the 10Y Treasury yield fell to 4.06%, the US dollar index weakened to 99.5, gold prices rose, copper prices rose, and oil prices rose by over 1% [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets falling to 2 trillion. The micro - cap and dividend styles are still dominant over the technology style. In the short term, there may be new highs, but there is a risk of subsequent adjustments. In the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is oscillating, waiting for the release of October financial and economic data. The central bank emphasizes strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [3]. - For precious metals, the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts boosted gold and silver prices. The US Senate's bill to end the government shutdown and the expected weak economic data may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The demand for gold is expected to be strong this year and next, and the price may reach $4,700 per ounce [4]. - For copper, the market is cautious. The weak US labor market requires continuous interest rate cuts. The global mine supply is tight, and domestic social inventories are decreasing marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7]. - For aluminum, the macro - narrative is positive. The end of the US government shutdown, the resumption of economic data, and the dovish shift in the Fed's stance are positive. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and aluminum prices will continue to be strong and volatile [8]. - For alumina, the supply pressure persists, and the price remains weak. The production capacity is high, but the market expects potential production cuts in winter, so the price is oscillating at a low level [9][10]. - For zinc, the market is worried about the deterioration of the US labor market. The LME has low inventories and a strong structure, which supports zinc prices. However, weak domestic consumption limits the upside space, and zinc prices will oscillate [12]. - For lead, the LME is strong, driving up the price of Shanghai lead. The supply shortage in the domestic market has been alleviated, and Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term but may face a pull - back risk [13][14]. - For tin, the weak US employment and the slow recovery of Indonesian tin exports support tin prices. However, the volatile macro - sentiment and high raw material prices may lead to a pull - back in tin prices [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is contracting marginally, and the demand is weakening. The price will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the current fundamentals are strong, but there are risks of increased imports and weakening demand in the future. The price will fluctuate widely [18][19]. - For nickel, the weak US labor market boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is positive for nickel prices. The high cost of nickel ore limits the downside space, but the high inventory weakens the fundamentals [20]. - For soda ash and glass, there are maintenance plans for soda ash production lines, and the glass production line's daily melting volume is weakening. Both lack demand - driven price increases and may oscillate at a low level [21][22]. - For steel products, the supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [23][24]. - For iron ore, port inventories are increasing, and the price will oscillate weakly [25]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the South American production is expected to be good. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and the price will oscillate and adjust [26][27]. - For palm oil, the weak US employment data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The supply of rapeseed oil is tightening, and the price of vegetable oil has rebounded, driving up the prices of other oils. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The trading data of various metal contracts on November 11, including closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented. For example, SHFE copper closed at 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, with a trading volume of 156,444 lots and an open interest of 553,109 lots [30]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On November 11, SHFE copper's main contract price was 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. LME copper's price was 10,840 US dollars/ton, down 34.5 US dollars. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 42,964 lots, and LME copper's inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons [32]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel's main contract price was 119,380 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. LME nickel's price was 15,025 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 241 lots to 32,292 lots, and LME nickel's inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons [34]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc's main contract price was 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. LME zinc's price was 3,069 US dollars/ton, down 16.5 US dollars. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts increased by 649 lots to 70,518 lots, and LME zinc's inventory increased by 400 tons to 35,300 tons [34]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead's main contract price was 17,440 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. LME lead's price was 2,067 US dollars/ton, up 10.5 US dollars. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,981 lots, and LME lead's inventory increased by 24,525 tons to 226,725 tons [34]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum's continuous third - month contract price was 21,670 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. LME aluminum's price was 2,879.5 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 lots, and LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 545,225 tons [34]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina's main contract price was 2,816 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,869 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [34]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin's main contract price was 288,180 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. LME tin's price was 36,695 US dollars/ton, up 515 US dollars. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts decreased by 112 lots to 5,582 lots, and LME tin's inventory decreased by 20 tons to 3,015 tons [36]. - **Precious Metals**: SHFE gold remained unchanged at 948.88 yuan/gram, and COMEX gold remained unchanged at 4,116.30 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver remained unchanged at 11,880 yuan/kg, and COMEX silver remained unchanged at 50.744 US dollars/ounce [36]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: SHFE rebar's main contract price was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The main contract price of iron ore futures was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 380.41 million tons to 15,819.49 million tons [36][38]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The main contract price of coke futures was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan. The main contract price of coking coal futures was 1,213 yuan/ton, down 52.5 yuan [38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate futures was 8.46 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan. The spot price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 8.2 yuan/ton, up 0.10 yuan [38]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures was 9,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The average price of East China's 553 oxygen - containing silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [38]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean's main contract price was 1,126.75 US cents/bushel, down 0.75 US cents. The main contract price of soybean meal futures was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract price of rapeseed meal futures was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [40].

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has slightly risen to around 99.55 during the Asian trading session, primarily driven by the easing of U.S. government shutdown risks [2] - Market sentiment has improved as investors anticipate the passage of government funding legislation, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a mild recovery in the dollar against major currencies [2] - The fluctuations in the dollar index are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. macroeconomic data, fiscal policy developments, and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown weakness, putting pressure on growth momentum, with U.S. consumer confidence dropping to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November [3] - The labor market is also showing signs of cooling, with private sector employment decreasing by an average of approximately 11,000 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25, indicating declining confidence in hiring [3] - Market focus is on upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may provide signals regarding future interest rate directions, influencing the dollar's short-term volatility [3] Group 3 - Some forex strategists suggest that the easing of government shutdown risks is more of a short-term sentiment driver, while the medium-term outlook for the dollar will depend on actual economic data performance [4] - Key indicators such as inflation pressure, employment changes, and manufacturing activity will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's future policy [4] - International factors, including the relatively loose monetary policies in the Eurozone and Japan, provide some support for the dollar, but a continued slowdown in U.S. economic growth could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $31, or 0.29%, closing at $10,827.00 per ton on November 11, 2023, influenced by weak employment data and a declining dollar [1][2] - The year-to-date increase in LME copper prices is 23%, with a record high of $11,200 per ton reached on October 29, 2023 [4] - The U.S. Senate approved a compromise plan to restore federal funding, which is expected to end the government shutdown, positively impacting financial markets and industrial metals [4][5] Group 2 - Codelco, Chile's state-owned copper company, reported a 7% decrease in production in September, contributing to upward pressure on copper prices [5] - Deutsche Bank raised its year-end price forecast for copper to $10,500 per ton, aluminum to $2,900 per ton, and zinc to $3,000 per ton, while lowering nickel's forecast to $15,000 per ton [6] - Indonesia's Trade Ministry reported a 53.89% year-on-year decrease in refined tin exports in October, indicating potential supply constraints [7]

Group 1 - The US dollar index closed down 0.14% at 99.48 on November 11 [1] - Most non-US currencies experienced declines, with the euro rising 0.22% to 1.1583 against the dollar [1] - The British pound fell 0.21% to 1.3149 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar decreased by 0.14% to 0.6527 [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated slightly against the Japanese yen, increasing by 0.01% to 154.1495 [1] - The US dollar also saw a minor decline of 0.01% against the Canadian dollar, settling at 1.4019 [1] - The US dollar dropped 0.55% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.8005 [1]

Core Points - The ICE Dollar Index decreased by 0.16% to 99.428 points at the end of trading on Tuesday, November 11 [1] - The intraday trading range for the index was between 99.738 and 99.287 points [1]