基本面： 周一（2月9日）黄金价格早盘高开大涨，随后大跌，市场短线追空或者等地回落支撑位多单布局，金价早盘上演绝地反击，单日狂飙近4%，现货价格一度 逼近每盎司4955美元，周线顽强收涨。现货黄金延续涨势，一度上涨1.7%至5046.15美元/盎司。与此同时，白银的波动更为剧烈，上周五盘中暴跌后10%后 大幅反弹，收盘上涨逾9%，收报77.50美元/盎司，波动幅度令人咋舌，周一续涨3%至79.90美元/盎司。这绝非简单的技术性反弹，其背后是美元指数的微妙 转向、中东地缘政治"火药桶"引信的忽明忽暗、以及全球央行政策路径的混沌交织。 本次金价暴力拉升，最直接的催化剂来自于外汇市场与地缘政治两个层面的"共振"。美元的"短暂喘息"：美元指数在上周五下跌0.2%，结束了连续多日的强 势。尽管整周仍录得上涨，但此时的回落，对于以美元计价的黄金而言，如同卸下了一副沉重的枷锁，使其对持有欧元、日元等其他货币的投资者而言变 得"更便宜"，从而刺激了实物买盘和投资需求。这种"跷跷板"效应在情绪敏感时期总是被放大。中东迷雾中的"避险脉冲"：伊朗方面关于在阿曼与美国举行 的核谈判取得"良好开端"并将持续推进的表态，本意是缓和局势， ...

2026/2/9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货贵金属周报 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 2025-01-02 2025-02-02 2025-03-02 2025-04-02 2025-05-02 2025-06-02 2025-07-02 2025-08-02 2025-09-02 2025-10-02 2025-11-02 2025-12-02 2026-01-02 2026-02-02 美联储新一任主席沃什就任后的鹰派预期升温，美国初 请失业金人数激增，黄金价格反弹。截至上周五，美黄 金报收4989美元/盎司，周内上涨1.7%，关注上方压力 位5050，下方支撑位4750。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 37.000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, suggesting stable and multi - allocation [1] - Silver: Bearish, not recommended for participation [1] - Copper: Bullish in the long - term, suggesting long - term holding and short - term profit - taking [1][7] - Zinc: Neutral in the short - term, suggesting waiting for more macro guidance; bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips [1][11] - Lead: Bearish, price under pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral, wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, price under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Neutral, waiting for stabilization [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold**: With the decline of US inflation expectations, the market sentiment has recovered after adjustment. In the long - term, due to the reshaping of the geopolitical order and central banks' continuous gold purchases, the long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1][3] - **Silver**: Although there are long - term supply - demand gaps and favorable factors from global fiscal policies, short - term market adjustments continue, and the risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - term participation [1] - **Copper**: In the short - term, approaching the Spring Festival, market risk - aversion sentiment rises, demand is weak in the traditional off - season, and high global copper inventories suppress the upside space. In the long - term, it is still optimistic due to copper's strategic position and green demand [1][6][7] - **Zinc**: In the short - term, speculation enthusiasm cools down, demand is weak approaching the Spring Festival, and inventories are accumulating. In the long - term, it is advisable to buy on dips due to potential supply challenges [1][10][11] - **Aluminum**: Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, alumina costs are low, domestic inventories are accumulating, and downstream开工 rates are declining, so the price rebound is under pressure in the short - term [1][12][14] - **Nickel**: The expectation of supply contraction in Indonesia has been digested, domestic high inventories and weak consumption continue, and stainless steel inventories have rebounded slightly, so the price rebound is under pressure in the short - term [1][16][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Total inventories have been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks, production has declined. Market sentiment has been affected, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization before layout [1][20][21] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: After a significant adjustment, the prices of gold and silver rebounded on Friday, but market confidence has not been fully restored. Positions and narratives are in an unstable state [2] - **Influencing Factors**: US inflation expectations have declined, and the Chinese central bank has been continuously buying gold. The three pillars supporting the gold price (central bank purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty) remain stable, but the market needs time to digest volatility [3] - **Strategy**: Domestic gold should be observed around 1060, and silver around 19000. Gold VIX and silver VIX are still at relatively high levels, and attention should be paid to volatility reduction [4] Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded. Global copper inventories are at a high level, and downstream demand is weak approaching the Spring Festival [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Global copper mines are in short supply, and the growth of copper smelting capacity has been curbed. The output in January increased slightly year - on - year, and is expected to decline slightly in February [6] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is recommended that long - position holders take profits on rallies and hold cash and be empty during the holiday. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term Shanghai copper should focus on the range of 99500 - 104000 yuan/ton, and LME copper on 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc is in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - **Influencing Factors**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc ingot output increased in January, and inventories are accumulating approaching the Spring Festival. Traditional demand is weak, but emerging demand may make up for part of the gap [10] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is recommended to reduce positions and control risks, waiting for more macro guidance. In the long - term, it is advisable to buy on dips. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of 24000 - 25000 yuan/ton, and LME zinc on 3250 - 3300 US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebounded under pressure, and alumina prices declined [12][13] - **Influencing Factors**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventories are increasing, and downstream demand is weak. Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, and alumina inventories are still under pressure [14][15] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot inventories. The main operating range is 22000 - 24500 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices rebounded under pressure [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. Domestic pure nickel inventories are accumulating, and downstream stainless steel inventories have rebounded slightly. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season [18] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is 120000 - 140000 yuan/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went low, and recovered the 130,000 - yuan mark at the end of the session [20] - **Influencing Factors**: The external atmosphere of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is weak, and the market liquidity is insufficient. The fundamentals have no obvious negative factors, and the inventory is decreasing in the off - season. The market is worried about inventory accumulation in the peak season in March [21] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty - position mainly, with the range of 130000 - 145000 yuan/ton [22]

Quick Read iShares Silver Trust (SLV) dropped nearly 7% in the week ending February 6 after gaining 139% over the prior 12 months. Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination catalyzed the SLV selloff by signaling policy continuity that favors a stronger dollar. Physical silver remained in backwardation during the decline. Spot prices exceeded futures despite aggressive futures selling. Investors rethink 'hands off' investing and decide to start making real money iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) droppe ...

转折出现在1月底。美联储会议维持利率不变，随后特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席，市场解 读为可能带来政策确定性的信号。美元指数由此展开反弹，回到97上方运行。然而，反弹力度相对温 和，显示出市场对美元中长期前景仍持谨慎态度。 主要非美货币在此期间表现分化。欧元、英镑兑美元均录得一定涨幅，反映出欧洲经济边际改善与央行 政策立场的支撑。人民币表现尤为突出，兑美元汇率一度突破6.94关口，创2023年5月以来新高。这种 强势既与美元整体走弱相关，也得益于中国经济的企稳迹象。 从政策层面观察，中国人民银行在2月初实施了降准操作，释放长期流动性。这一宽松举措并未对人民 币汇率形成明显压力，显示出当前汇率形成机制具有较强的弹性。外汇管理局同时公布了外汇储备增长 的数据，为人民币汇率提供了基本面支撑。 展望未来，美元指数的走势将取决于美联储政策路径的清晰度以及美国经济的相对表现。若就业与通胀 数据确认放缓趋势，美元可能继续承压；反之，若数据展现出韧性，则支持美元企稳。主要央行货币政 策的分化程度将是决定汇市格局的关键变量。 外汇市场在2026年开年呈现出复杂的波动特征。美元指数经历了先抑后扬的走势，年初一度跌至202 ...

美元指数承压提供额外助力。部分美元抛售现象出现，削弱美元对黄金的压制。美联储政策预期继续支 撑金价：CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员定价2026年内至少两次25基点降息概率较高。本周美国劳动 力市场数据疲软加剧这一预期——ADP私营部门1月新增就业仅2.2万，远低于前值3.7万(修正后)和预期 4.8万；JOLTS职位空缺降至654.2万(前值692.8万修正)；初请失业金人数升至23.1万，高于前值20.9万和 预期21.2万。这些数据强化经济放缓担忧，推动降息预期升温，有利于无息黄金。 【技术分析】 从技术面来看，4月黄金期货上周日线图形成看空"关键反转"形态，或预示阶段性顶部。但今日强势反 弹已突破前期高点，多头力量重新占据上风。多头下一目标为站稳5250.00美元关键阻力位上方并收盘 其上；空头下行目标为跌破本周低点4423.20美元关键支撑。黄金期货第一阻力位5000.00美元（已接近 或突破），第二阻力位周四高点5045.00美元；第一支撑位4800.00美元，第二支撑位隔夜低点4670.00美 元。 【要闻速递】 避险情绪回升是当前金价的主要支撑力量。全球股市延续抛售，尤其是科技股暴跌加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson expresses a "cautiously optimistic" outlook for the economy in 2026, anticipating growth slightly above trend levels, a stabilizing labor market, and inflation returning to the Fed's 2% target [1] Group 1 - Jefferson states that the current Federal Reserve policy is "well-prepared" to respond to any economic changes, aligning with expectations of pausing further interest rate cuts [1] - Decision-makers are awaiting more employment and inflation data before making further policy adjustments [1] - Jefferson emphasizes that any further adjustments to the policy rate should be based on the latest data, dynamic outlook, and risk balance [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil price volatility has increased this week, and the rebound height may be limited without clear signals of production cuts or a significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4] - PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term due to weak downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol is in a situation of supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [5] - Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish, but there is a risk of correction [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, oil prices fluctuated sharply due to geopolitical and Fed policy uncertainties. Tensions in the Middle East, concerns about potential supply disruptions, a reduction in US crude oil production due to force majeure, a decrease in US crude oil inventories, and a decline in the US dollar index supported oil prices [4] - OPEC+ announced a suspension of the production increase plan for the first three months of 2026 at the end of 2025, but the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute an output increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] PX & PTA - Domestic PX load remained unchanged, and processing fees fell to around $300/ton. With the end of some device maintenance, PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and attention should be paid to the subsequent terminal restocking [4][10] - This week, PTA devices remained unchanged, factory inventories started to accumulate, and downstream operations weakened significantly. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in February. The polyester industry's operating rate will decline rapidly, and the overall maintenance intensity exceeds that of the same period last year [4] - The current spot price of PTA is 5,068 yuan/ton, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 76.29%. Factory - in inventory days increased to 3.72 days. PTA processing fees are 422 yuan/ton. As future supply recovers and downstream demand weakens, PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [16] MEG - At the beginning of the month, there are plans for large Saudi contract ships to enter the warehouse, and the near - term arrivals are still relatively high. The arrivals will gradually decrease from mid - February [5] - The seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February is at a high level since 2021, and the future expectation is difficult to reverse. Polyester demand is weak, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is imbalanced, and device losses are expanding [5] - The current price of ethylene glycol is around 3,600 yuan/ton, which has a certain support. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to overseas situations [5] BZ & EB - The operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and there are expectations of restarting multiple domestic related devices, so the overall supply is expected to rise. This week, the pure benzene port inventory remained flat but is still at a high level [5][38] - It is expected that during the Spring Festival, the load reduction of styrene will be limited under high profits, while other varieties with weak profits may have obvious load reductions. In February, the overall demand will remain stable month - on - month, and it is expected to gradually enter a seasonal inventory accumulation pattern [5] - The overall operating rate of downstream 3S is not high, showing an inventory reduction trend. With the subsequent resumption of some devices and the high inventory of pure benzene, there is a risk of correction. Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish [5] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 79.53%, a decrease of 2.34 percentage points from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, multiple devices are under maintenance, and the domestic polyester industry output continues to decline significantly [30] - The operating rate of sample enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving industry is 22.47%, a decrease of 19.94% from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 6.35 days, a decrease of 0.35 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory is 26.08 days, a decrease of 2.72 days from last week [30]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold experienced a significant drop of over $350, followed by a sharp recovery of $200, indicating a deep V-shaped reversal and a potential challenge at the $4900 level [1][12] - The market saw a decline below $4700, touching $4655 before rebounding strongly to above $4800, with a temporary pause at $4840 [5][7] - Key support levels to watch include $4760 and $4600, while resistance levels are at $4900 and $5024, suggesting a volatile trading environment [10][12] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, alongside improving conditions in the Russia-Ukraine situation, have influenced market sentiment, leading to a sell-off in gold [13] - The US job market is showing signs of distress, with rising layoffs and unemployment claims, yet the Federal Reserve remains focused on inflation, which has contributed to the bearish sentiment in precious metals [13] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points for gold trading, emphasizing the importance of trend direction and timing for stable profits [14] - The company highlights the necessity of risk management and the potential for maximizing profits through disciplined trading strategies, with a track record of achieving high accuracy rates [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with the current bull market in gold not yet showing signs of ending despite recent volatility triggered by Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - As of February 6, the international gold price is $4783.50 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of $7.87 or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range between $4654.29 and $4793.49 [1]. - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices, which saw declines of 20% and 40% respectively, was a reaction to Warsh's hawkish stance on interest rates and balance sheet reduction, leading to a stronger dollar and a global asset sell-off [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The end of the current bull market in gold may follow two potential paths: either the Federal Reserve halts interest rate cuts and begins balance sheet reduction, or an AI-driven economic growth in the U.S. leads to lower inflation [2]. - Despite recent price corrections, the expectation is that the gold bull market will continue as neither of the aforementioned conditions has yet materialized, with recommendations to strategically overweight gold and buy on dips [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a shift to a weaker trend for gold, with prices breaking below previous support levels, suggesting continued downward pressure [3]. - Short-term resistance is noted in the $4790-$4800 range, while support is anticipated around $4590-$4600, indicating potential for minor rebounds but limited upward momentum [3].