Core Viewpoint - The impact of global tariffs on U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve policy remains unclear, complicating predictions for future monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - UBS's Sergio Ermotti expresses confidence in continued U.S. economic growth despite uncertainties surrounding inflation and its effects on Federal Reserve policy [1] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates during the meeting on September 16-17, with changing investor expectations regarding the extent of policy adjustments [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Ermotti highlights that the real impact of tariffs will be felt by consumers, emphasizing the need for clarity on whether tariffs will trigger inflation in the U.S., which is currently uncertain [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global economy is exhibiting a bifurcation, driven by technology and AI on one side, and more traditional sectors on the other, with noticeable effects in regions like Hong Kong's thriving IPO market [1] - Overall, Ermotti describes the current market situation as positive, but notes the complexity of various influencing factors and the intricate geopolitical environment [1]

Core Insights - The impact of global tariffs on the US economy and inflation remains unclear, complicating predictions regarding Federal Reserve policy [1][3] - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti believes the US economy will continue to grow, but the implications of inflation on Fed policy are uncertain [3] - There is a significant divide in the global economy, driven by technology and AI on one side and more traditional sectors on the other [3] Economic Outlook - Ermotti emphasizes the need to understand whether tariffs will lead to inflation in the US, indicating that this is still unclear [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 is anticipated to involve discussions on interest rate cuts, with changing investor expectations regarding the extent of policy adjustments [3] Geopolitical Context - The current economic momentum is described as positive, but there is no definitive conclusion due to the complexity of economic factors and the intricate geopolitical environment [3] - The IPO market in Hong Kong is highlighted as an example of the economic divide, showcasing a thriving sector amid broader economic trends [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina: After a period of relatively high - level operation, the supply surplus in the alumina market has gradually affected the spot market. With the accumulation of social inventory and a significant increase in exchange warehouse receipts, the spot price has declined. In the third quarter, new production capacity in Guangxi is expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure remains high. Given the stable electrolytic aluminum production capacity on the consumption side, the market balance is under pressure, and the price is expected to remain weak. However, the cost of bauxite and potential policy support will limit the downside [3][63]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased, but the proportion of molten aluminum has risen by 1.3% to 75.07% in August, reducing the supply of aluminum ingots. Some aluminum - processing sectors have shown signs of entering the peak consumption season, with an increase in the operating rate. The power and new - energy vehicle sectors are expected to grow well, and exports remain resilient, while the real - estate and photovoltaic sectors are sluggish. The inventory accumulation rate of aluminum ingots has slowed down, and there are occasional destocking periods. Overall, the supply - demand balance has improved marginally, and aluminum prices are expected to rise during the peak season. However, the upside potential is limited, and the price increase may be volatile [3][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Alumina Futures: In August, the price of alumina futures first rose from 3,160 yuan/ton to a maximum of 3,384 yuan/ton and then gradually declined to 3,006 yuan/ton. It closed at 3,036 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 4.8% [9]. - Shanghai Aluminum Futures: In August, the price of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated but generally trended upward. It rose from a minimum of 20,365 yuan/ton to 20,835 yuan/ton due to the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and then declined. It closed at 20,740 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.17% [10]. - London Aluminum Futures: In August, London aluminum futures fluctuated due to the changing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. It remained within the previous month's trading range, closing at 2,619 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, up 2.2% [10]. 3.2 Macro 3.2.1 Overseas - Tariff Policy: The US has made multiple tariff adjustments, including expanding the list of critical minerals, imposing tariffs on EU products, and increasing tariffs on Indian goods, which have a negative impact on global trade [12]. - Fed Policy: The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, but Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was dovish, increasing the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. However, the personnel change and concerns about the Fed's independence have affected market expectations [12]. - Economic Data: In July, the US CPI and PPI increased, the unemployment rate rebounded in August, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was higher than expected. The manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high since 2022. In Europe, the ECB's inflation risk is balanced, and the economic growth in the eurozone may slow down in the third quarter [13][15][16]. 3.2.2 Domestic - Economic Data: In July, China's industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales growth rates all declined, and the CPI was flat year - on - year. The M2 and M1 growth rates increased, and the new special - purpose bonds issuance accelerated [17][18]. - Policy: Beijing and Shanghai relaxed property - purchase restrictions in August, and the central government promoted the development of urban agglomerations and the renovation of old urban communities [18]. 3.3 Alumina Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bauxite - Domestic Bauxite: In August, the supply of domestic bauxite remained tight, and the price was stable. The high - price bauxite may face limited acceptance due to the declining alumina price [20]. - Imported Bauxite: In July, China imported 20.063 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 33.75%. However, due to the rainy season in Guinea and policy uncertainties, the import volume may decrease in the short term [20]. 3.3.2 Alumina Supply - Domestic Production: In July, China's alumina production was 7.704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13%. It is expected that the production in August will be about 7.76 million tons. The supply in the north is relatively loose, while that in the south is still tight [23]. - Import and Export: In July, China exported 229,400 tons of alumina and imported 125,900 tons, with a net export of 104,000 tons. In August, the export window remained closed, and the import window opened, but the net - export pattern is expected to continue [24]. 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - Inventory: As of the end of August, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 98,000 tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory has been accumulating [25]. - Spot: In August, the alumina futures price dropped rapidly, and the spot price followed, with the spot premium increasing from 28 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 247 yuan/ton at the end of the month [25]. 3.3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - Cost: In July, the average fully - cost of the alumina industry in China was 2,933.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. The decrease in the price of liquid caustic soda led to a slight reduction in costs [26]. - Profit: With the decline in the alumina price, the profit margin has narrowed [26]. 3.3.5 Alumina Outlook The supply of alumina is expected to remain under pressure, but the cost of bauxite and potential policy support will limit the downside [3][63]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Domestic Production: In July, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7396 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. It is expected that the production in August will be about 3.745 million tons [37]. - Overseas Production: In July, the global (excluding China) electrolytic aluminum production was 2.406 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%. It is expected that the production in August will be 2.411 million tons [38]. - Import and Export: In July, China imported 248,300 tons of primary aluminum and exported 41,000 tons, with a net import of 207,300 tons. The import window is expected to remain closed [

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's baseline view is that U.S. GDP growth will slow to around 1% by Q4 2025, with only a slight increase in 2026, indicating that U.S. economic growth may not surpass that of other regions [1] - A recent weak labor market report highlights stagnation in hiring activity, underscoring the downside risks to economic growth [1] - The market is digesting significant risks associated with further easing policies from the Federal Reserve, with expectations that lower rates will stimulate foreign investors to hedge their dollar assets, potentially supporting the dollar [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the sustainability of public finances in countries like France and the UK are increasing the term premium on the yield curve, putting pressure on the euro and pound, while the U.S. is also affected by these fiscal trends [2] - A key risk for the dollar is the growth outlook and uncertainty surrounding monetary and public policy, with expectations that the dollar will weaken for the remainder of the year [2]

Group 1 - The economic data released on Friday highlights a stagnation in hiring, causing anxiety among the American public regarding job security in the age of artificial intelligence [1] - Despite the downturn in the job market, investors are betting on the Federal Reserve's intervention to support asset prices, indicating a divergence in perspectives between capital owners and the general workforce [1] - The stock market experienced a slight decline due to the weakened hiring trends, which underscore potential risks to future corporate earnings, yet the decline was moderate [1] Group 2 - The non-farm payroll growth was minimal, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since 2021, confirming the worst employment growth since the pandemic began [1] - Financial markets show resilience despite the pressures on the real economy, with the Russell 2000 small-cap index rising for five consecutive weeks and credit spreads hovering at a ten-year low [1]

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the complex interplay between gold prices, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies, highlighting the potential for gold prices to soar if the Fed's credibility is compromised [1] - Gold prices are influenced by three main factors: inflation, the US dollar, and geopolitical tensions, which create a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces [2][3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policy statements significantly impact market dynamics, with interest rate decisions reflecting internal divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts [6][7] - Market reactions to Fed officials' comments can lead to substantial fluctuations in gold prices, indicating the importance of the Fed's perceived credibility and independence [7] - The PCE price index serves as a critical indicator for the Fed's policy direction, with market expectations shifting based on upcoming data releases [8] Group 3 - The market demonstrates a keen ability to interpret Fed policies, with gold ETFs acting as a barometer for investor sentiment, showing significant inflows in 2024 [10] - Technical analysis plays a crucial role in trading strategies, with specific price levels acting as support and resistance, amplifying the effects of policy announcements [11] - Institutional reports suggest that even a minor shift in US Treasury holdings towards gold could lead to dramatic price increases, reflecting the market's sensitivity to Fed policies [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the potential for a market correction in the U.S. stock market due to signs of economic slowdown and overvaluation in AI-related stocks [1][10][11] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with consumer spending growth at approximately half of the average level seen in recent years [8][10] - The concentration of market capitalization among the "seven giants" in the AI sector has reached about 35% of the S&P 500, indicating a level of market concentration risk six times greater than that seen during the peak of the internet bubble in March 2000 [10][11] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to act cautiously regarding interest rate adjustments, influenced by initial signs of weakness in the labor market and external factors like tariffs [4][6] - There is a possibility of a moderate reduction in policy interest rates, but the extent will depend on future data performance [5][6] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from actions taken by the Trump administration regarding Fed officials [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. government faces uncertainty regarding its fiscal situation, leading to increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market [1] - The implied volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds surged by 12.12 points over the past three days, marking the largest consecutive increase since April 2 [1] - Concerns about the non-farm payroll data on Friday may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, with market participants closely monitoring the report [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's spending and tax cut plans are expected to worsen the U.S. fiscal situation unless tariff revenues are sustained [1] - There is growing market anxiety due to Trump's attempts to exert greater control over the Federal Reserve, including efforts to dismiss board member Lisa Cook [1] - These concerns are reflected more in interest rates, gold futures, and stocks than in currency markets, according to JPMorgan strategists [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data on the gold market, with gold prices recently breaking the $3500 mark, indicating a potential for further volatility and investment opportunities [1][2][3]. Group 2 - Non-farm payroll data is considered a key economic indicator that reflects the vitality of the U.S. economy, influencing both the dollar and gold prices. A strong report typically boosts the dollar and suppresses gold, while a weak report increases demand for gold as a safe haven [2][3]. - The non-farm payroll data set to be released on September 5 is crucial, with expectations of around 75,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3%, indicating a cooling job market. This data will significantly affect market sentiment and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision [2][3]. - Since August, gold prices have risen sharply, with spot gold climbing from $3281 to over $3500, marking a nearly 5% increase for the month, driven by multiple factors including shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical risks [3]. Group 3 - Three potential scenarios for the gold market following the non-farm payroll data release are outlined: 1. Strong data (over 100,000 new jobs, unemployment rate ≤ 4.1%) could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold prices, although limited downside is expected due to global risk factors [4]. 2. Weak data (fewer than 75,000 new jobs, unemployment rate ≥ 4.3%) would likely lead to a weaker dollar and a surge in gold prices, potentially breaking historical highs [5]. 3. Data in line with expectations (around 75,000 new jobs) may result in market fluctuations, with investors focusing on additional indicators to gauge future interest rate directions [6]. Group 4 - The company provides four strategic recommendations for investors navigating the volatile non-farm payroll data release: 1. Track expectations ahead of the data release to formulate operational strategies based on market consensus [7]. 2. Prioritize risk management by establishing clear stop-loss and take-profit strategies, adjusting positions based on risk tolerance [8]. 3. Monitor Federal Reserve movements closely, as non-farm data can influence monetary policy and long-term gold price support [9]. 4. Adjust investment strategies flexibly post-data release, avoiding impulsive trading decisions during high volatility [10]. Group 5 - The company, Huangyu Precious Metals, is a registered dealer in the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, holding the highest AA trading license, and has established itself as a trusted platform for gold trading through over a decade of stable operations [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the market focuses on upcoming US economic data for policy clues, with concerns about the Fed's independence. The US dollar index and Treasury yields are generally weak, and global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce between China and the US and increased US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled, and domestic risk appetite has significantly declined. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally but sentiment weakening. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - For assets, the stock index has corrected from its short - term high, and short - term cautious observation is recommended. Treasury bonds are oscillating at a high level, and cautious observation is needed. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and precious metals are all in short - term oscillations, and cautious observation is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The economic data in July slowed down and missed expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations reduce external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening but sentiment weakening. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated narrowly on Wednesday. The market focuses on Friday's PCE data to assess the Fed's policy path. Economists expect a 2.6% increase in PCE in July, the same as in June. After Powell's dovish signal, the market expects a more than 87% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. The manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high, but initial jobless claims rose. The increase in key capital goods orders in July exceeded expectations. The rate - cut expectation is further strengthened, providing short - term support for gold, but beware of the Fed's changing attitude [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets weakened, with low trading volumes. The stock market correction increased risk - aversion sentiment, dragging down the black sector. Real - world demand continued to weaken, inventories of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased, and apparent consumption declined. Supply increased slightly. Near the end of the month, there is more pressure for capital repatriation and sales. The steel market is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot price of iron ore remained flat, and the futures price declined slightly. With high steel mill profits, hot - metal production continued to decline slightly. In the next week, northern regions will have different degrees of production restrictions, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Mainstream Australian powder resources are stably supplied, but traders are reluctant to sell, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The port inventory decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys is currently okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the north and 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton in the south. In the south, production is increasing, but factories are in a wait - and - see state due to the falling futures price. The price of manganese ore is weak. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton for 72 - grade natural lumps and 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. Some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and have high production enthusiasm. Ferroalloy prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production increased due to the return from maintenance. In the new capacity - release cycle, there is supply pressure, and the oversupply pattern remains. New devices will be put into production in the fourth quarter. High supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, and downstream demand support is still weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and the supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production and the number of operating production lines remained stable. The real - estate industry is still weak, and demand is hard to improve. Downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as the glass price fell. With stable supply and limited demand growth, glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US data shows that core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military equipment) increased by 1.1% last month. As factors such as export rush, PV pre - installation, and the marginal effect of trade - in policies decline, domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price will not last [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the aluminum price rose and then fell. There was no news for the night - session surge, which was likely driven by the copper price. The aluminum price increase was greater than that of copper, but it fell during the day as commodities weakened. Aluminum's fundamentals changed little, with social inventory increasing by 20,000 tons and a cumulative increase of 170,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory also continued to increase. There is limited medium - term upward space, and it will oscillate in the short term, lacking a strong downward driver but with a weakening rebound foundation [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants face raw - material shortages, with rising production costs. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [11]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mine supply is currently tight, but the reduction in refined tin production is less than expected. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, and capacity utilization may decline. With the issuance of mining licenses, the mine supply will tend to be loose. African tin imports decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. PV pre - installation has overdrawn future demand, and new PV installations are weakening. The operating rates of PV glass and PV solder strips have declined. Overall, downstream orders are scarce. The price decline has stimulated downstream restocking, and inventory decreased by 802 tons to 9,278 tons, but downstream buyers are still cautious, only making purchases for immediate needs. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main lithium - carbonate contract 2511 fell by 0.23%, with a new settlement price of 80,000 yuan/ton and a reduction of 3,104 lots in weighted contracts, and a total position of 757,900 lots. The battery - grade lithium - carbonate price is 79,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the industrial - grade is 78,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CIF price of Australian lithium spodumene is 920 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The profit from purchasing lithium spodumene for production is 1,988 yuan/ton. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract 2511 fell by 1.56%, with a new settlement price of 8,540 yuan/ton, a position of 516,800 lots in weighted contracts, and a reduction of 9,286 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the futures price is at a discount of 775 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China 421 and East China oxygen - containing 553 is 250 yuan/ton. Recently, black metals and polysilicon have weakened, and industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 fell by 4.89%, with a new settlement price of 49,715 yuan/ton, a position of 334,600 lots in weighted contracts, and an increase of 14,137 lots. The price of N - type re -投料 is 49,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the P - type cauliflower - like material is 30,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.24 yuan/piece (unchanged), the M10 single - crystal TOPCon battery is 0.292 yuan/watt (unchanged), and the 210mm N - type module is 0.68 yuan/watt (unchanged). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased to 6,880, reflecting increased hedging pressure. The polysilicon output in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It broke through support in the short term, with a bearish direction. Attention should be paid to the spot support below [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US crude and fuel inventories decreased, alleviating concerns about imminent supply over - capacity. Although the absolute price is still in a range, the spread of WTI has widened to the largest in over a week, and Cushing inventory decreased for the first time in 8 weeks, with a national inventory reduction of 2.4 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The US increased tariffs on some Indian goods, but Indian refineries plan to maintain most purchases, so short - term supply concerns are hard to ease, and there is still significant medium - and long - term downward pressure on oil prices [16]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price decreased slightly as the market followed the decline of anti - involution leading varieties. The asphalt spot market has slightly recovered, and the decline of the basis has paused. However, social and factory inventories have not significantly decreased, and profits have slightly recovered with a significant increase in production. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. With limited inventory reduction, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern in the near term [16]. - **PX**: After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, the tight PX situation will provide obvious support at the bottom. Benefiting from petrochemical capacity adjustment, but with the PX plant load at a medium - low level, it is still in a tight pattern in the short term. The PXN spread is currently 266 US dollars, and the PX overseas price has rebounded to 864 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [16]. - **PTA**: The PTA price decreased with position reduction as the market declined. However, domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments have stabilized the energy - chemical sector in the short term. The temporary shutdown of the Huizhou plant due to environmental requirements provides some support, and the basis remains at +30. Downstream production has recovered to 90%, and the restocking pace has accelerated before the peak season. PTA may have a slight inventory reduction in September and is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol gave back some previous gains and oscillated narrowly in the short term. Port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. Domestic restrictions on petrochemical capacity and new - project approvals will limit supply. However, the basis has not significantly recovered. The increase in downstream production will support ethylene glycol at the bottom, but the supply pressure is still large after the resumption of synthetic - gas - based plants. It is necessary to wait for verification of peak - season demand. When going long at low prices, attention should be paid to crude - oil cost fluctuations [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased slightly as the sector declined. Terminal orders have seasonally increased, and short - fiber production has slightly rebounded, with limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in production. In the medium term, short - fiber can be short - sold along with the polyester sector [18]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have pressured the price. As the port price falls, the back - flow window is about to open, providing some support for the spot. MTO plants plan to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching. The methanol fundamentals show marginal improvement, but the oversupply pattern has not changed, and the price is expected to oscillate [18]. - **PP**: The increase in plant operation and upcoming new capacity have increased supply pressure. Downstream production has slightly increased, and demand is showing signs of recovery. There is significant fundamental pressure, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season stocking [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is showing a turning point. The "supply - side" speculation provides some price support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term bearish. Attention should be paid to demand and stocking [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1048.25, down 1.25 or 0.12% (settlement price 1047.50). The weather in the US core soybean - producing areas in August has been favorable, and the overall soybean quality rate remains high. With the increasing likelihood of a US soybean harvest, the futures price is under pressure. Market news indicates that China will send a delegation to the US for trade negotiations this week, boosting US soybean export expectations. Additionally, increased US Treasury bond selling and a weaker US dollar provide some macro - level support for US soybeans [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure on domestic oil mills to accumulate soybean and soybean meal inventories has eased. Market news suggests that this week's China - US trade negotiations will focus on soybean purchases, further stabilizing supply expectations. In the third quarter, preventive purchases have ensured sufficient soybean supply, but supply may tighten in the fourth quarter, with stable cost - based support. Rapeseed meal currently has high - inventory circulation pressure, but with low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases, there is still potential for price increases. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [21]. - **Edible Oils**: The port inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing. With few imported rapeseed purchases and low inventory in China, the supply is expected to contract strongly. The cost expectation of soybean oil has strengthened, and a low - valuation price increase is expected. The palm oil production cycle is in progress, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. There is no short - term incremental consumption expectation from policies, and the bullish market may enter an oscillation phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The arrival of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased over the weekend, and enterprise prices were slightly reduced. In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn will increase, and the C2511 contract has entered the price range of last year's opening price, 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton. There is no pressure from a large - scale arrival as in last year, with low carry - over inventory and the risk of excessive rainfall in the main producing areas. Although the planting cost has decreased this year, due to policies to stabilize the prices of important agricultural products and increase farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's price range. The futures price is currently in a relatively undervalued range, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [22]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs for slaughter is sufficient, and slaughterhouses have low purchasing pressure. The reduction in supply in some provinces has a limited impact on enterprise purchases, with a slight upward trend. There may be local emotional - driven price increases in the north tomorrow. In the south, demand supports the price, and the market is stable. Currently, secondary fattening is generally cautious, with limited restocking. As a result, the buffer space for large - scale future slaughter is reduced, and market pessimism about the fourth - quarter outlook is increasing [22].