| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 1115.000 | | -35.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1756.3 | -24.30↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 -641.30 | | -3.30↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | | -552.00 | -6.00↓ | | EC合约基差 5.49 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 29314 | | -110.43↓ -3117↓ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 1120.49 | | -134.43↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 921.25 | -272.39↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1114.52 | | -83.69↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | 1,227.97 | 0.04↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1087.41 | | -32.82↓ ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate Majority Leader, a Republican, indicated that U.S. agricultural exports are struggling due to the trade war, and a significant portion of tariff revenue may be used to provide assistance to farmers [1] - The U.S. Soybean Association reported that China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans since May, opting instead for suppliers from Brazil and Argentina, causing distress among U.S. soybean farmers [1] - The dramatic shift in soybean trade mirrors the situation during Trump's first term, where U.S. soybean exports to China plummeted from $14 billion in 2016 to $3.1 billion in 2018 [1] Group 2 - U.S. Agriculture Secretary expressed that soybean, corn, wheat, sorghum, and cotton growers are facing very difficult times, and discussions are ongoing regarding a farmer assistance plan [1] - President Trump has indicated a desire to allocate part of the tariff revenue to support farmers, although the USDA has not yet released specific plans [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson urged the U.S. to take positive actions to remove unreasonable tariffs to create conditions for expanding bilateral trade [2]

从时间线来看，国际贸易流程复杂，运输、谈判、签约等环节耗时漫长，等一切尘埃落定，美国大豆可能早已错过最佳销售窗口。 更令美国豆农忧心的 是，中国正加速从阿根廷、巴西等国家采购大豆。数据显示，中国至今未像往年一样下单购买美国新产季的大豆，这是近30年来的首次。 中国市场对美国 大豆有多重要？ 大豆是美国出口量最大的农产品，占全国农产品出口总额的14%，而中国一直是其最大买家。2023年，中国进口了价值超过125亿美元的美 国大豆，而排名第二的欧盟采购额不足25亿美元，差距悬殊。 如今，失去中国订单的美国豆农正经历至暗时刻。许多农场主面临严重亏损，部分人甚至被 迫申请破产。 中国精准反制让美国尝到苦果，农民懊悔支持特朗普 中美之间持续数月的贸易博弈已进入白热化阶段，其中最受冲击的当属美国大豆产业。随着中国转向 南美市场，美国豆农正面临前所未有的生存危机。 错失黄金销售期，美国豆农陷入绝望 明尼苏达州大豆种植者协会主席约翰逊近日透露了一个残酷的现 实：即便中美近期达成贸易协议，也赶不上今年的收获季了。 特朗普的关税战反噬自身 这场危机与特朗普政府发起的对华关税战直接相关。尽管特朗普声称加征关税是为了保护美国利益，但 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Impact - U.S. soybean production reached a historical high in 2025, but prices have plummeted by 40% compared to 2022, leading to significant distress among farmers [1] - The trade war has caused U.S. soybean market share in China to drop from 40% in 2016 to 20% in 2024, with farmers expressing frustration over the government's handling of the situation [2] - The number of farm bankruptcies increased by 55% in 2024, indicating a severe crisis in the agricultural sector [2] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The Trump administration's tariffs were expected to generate over $300 billion in revenue, but actual revenue was only $100 billion by July 2025, highlighting a significant shortfall [3] - Tariffs have led to a drastic reduction in U.S. soybean exports to China, from 22 million tons in 2024 to just 3 million tons, resulting in a complete loss of related tariff revenue [3] - The U.S. economy is facing a potential slowdown, with a 65% probability of recession as consumer prices for everyday goods have risen by 30% due to tariffs [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25% in response to rising unemployment and low job growth, with expectations of further cuts [4] - Despite potential cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points, the structural issues caused by tariffs may negate the positive effects of lower interest rates on consumer spending [4] Group 4: Business Challenges - Companies are facing a dilemma as tariffs increase production costs while incentivizing domestic manufacturing, creating a challenging environment for supply chains [6] - Retailers and importers are struggling with reduced product lines and legal challenges against the government due to the financial strain caused by tariffs [3]

"0"分通知书已经出炉，50万人心急如焚，中国外交部一锤定音。特朗普制华大计已经踢到铁板，美国 再无退路。 美国大豆 作为美国农业经济的一个关键领域，大豆危机影响到相关上下游产业的稳定和发展。运输业因货运量锐 减，不得不裁减运输车队，众多从业者失去工作岗位；压榨厂因原料供应和市场需求的变化，被迫减 产，大量工人面临轮岗甚至失业。大豆贸易的崩塌仅是开端。农产品出口下滑拖累美国能源、物流等相 关产业，加剧经济下行压力。 郭嘉昆 日前，外交部例行记者会上，发言人郭嘉昆被问及关于进口美国大豆的事宜。他并未说明具体措施，但 是给了美方提了个醒。他强调，关税战对两国都无益，中美之间想要解决问题，就必须互相尊重。最重 要的是，双方来往要始终平等，将互惠互利作为核心。中方的"话外音"很明确，特朗普的胡搅蛮缠，已 经让美国自己受到了重大影响。 此前，美国广播公司报道称，美国大豆协会主席拉格兰强调，目前中国的进口订单量为"0"。拉格兰此 前曾强调，美国50万大豆种植者，正面临史上最"可怕境地"。最大买家没有任何订单，直接让美国农民 面临破产，更是会让美国农民走投无路。他喊话特朗普称，中国市场至关重要。 拉格兰 要知道，美国大豆产 ...

这对于美国大豆农户来说，无异于是又一次"晴天霹雳"。我们都知道大豆是美国农产品出口的重中之 重，此前美国每年种植的大豆超过40亿蒲式耳，其中将近25%要出口到中国。去年一年，美国大豆商从 中国赚了130亿美元。可以说，中国市场成了美国豆农的"救命稻草"。 但特朗普上台后，对中国产品大规模加征关税，中国不得不调整采购方向。结果，美国大豆农户的订单 一下子"蒸发"了。 有美国农业公司测算，如果11月之前还没有中国订单，美国损失可能高达1400万至1600万吨，金额至少 也有数十亿美元。 在美国豆农发愁大豆卖不出去之际，阿根廷趁机大发美国"国难财"。据报道，当地时间9月22日，阿根 廷政府突然宣布一个重大决定：暂时取消谷物等农产品的出口税。 【阿根廷和中国达成数十船大豆交易】 阿根廷是全球大豆的主要生产国之一，但过去一直对大豆征收高达26%的出口税，导致不少买家对其望 而却步，如今突然取消出口税，等于主动放水，对于大豆需求量非常高的中方来说，这无疑是一个交易 的好机会。 据路透社报道，这一政策实施后，中国买家就迅速拍下了10船阿根廷大豆。两名熟悉情况的交易员称， 每船大豆大约为6.5万吨，计划11月装运，成本加运费 ...

When President Donald Trump made his “Liberation Day” speech on April 2, announcing sweeping tariffs across a range of sectors, markets reacted sharply. Investors feared a replay of the disruptive trade battles of his first term, and stocks dropped as they tried to assess how new levies might ripple through global supply chains. But six months on, the story looks different. Much of the initial panic has faded, replaced by recognition that the real economic impact of Trump’s tariffs has been softened by ca ...

Group 1 - The G7 and EU are planning to set a price floor for rare earths and impose tariffs on Chinese exports to counter China's dominance in rare earth production [3][5] - Rare earths are crucial for industries such as electric vehicles and military applications, with China controlling approximately 70% of global supply [5][6] - The G7's reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals poses a significant risk to their industrial sectors, including automotive and defense [5][6] Group 2 - China possesses a unique leverage in the trade war with the West due to its control over rare earth supplies, which are essential for various technologies [5][8] - The potential use of rare earth export restrictions could serve as a bargaining chip for China to negotiate the lifting of bans on semiconductor technology and other goods from the West [10] - The strategy of leveraging rare earths could lead to substantial long-term economic benefits for China, outweighing short-term revenue losses from export restrictions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a new policy targeting China's shipbuilding industry, imposing additional service fees on Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports, aiming to curb China's dominance in shipbuilding and support its own shipyards [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Policy and Its Implications - The U.S. Trade Representative's office announced a policy on February 21, 2025, requiring additional fees for Chinese-built ships, starting from October 14, with fees set at $50 per ton for Chinese ships and $18 per ton or $120 per container for non-Chinese ships [2]. - The policy stems from a Section 301 investigation initiated on April 17, 2024, which highlighted China's subsidies and market practices, leading to significant cost increases for Chinese ships entering U.S. ports [3]. - The average cost for a large Chinese-built ship could double, resulting in an increase of $200 per TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) for shipping costs, which poses challenges for global trade [3]. Group 2: China's Shipbuilding Industry Performance - China's shipbuilding industry has been performing exceptionally well, with a completion rate of 55.7% of global shipbuilding, 74.1% of new orders, and 63.1% of hand-held orders as of January 16, 2024 [5]. - China leads in 14 out of 18 major ship types, including bulk carriers, oil tankers, and container ships, and has captured over 70% of global orders for green ships in the first three quarters of 2024 [5]. Group 3: Impact on Global Shipping and Competitors - Following the U.S. policy announcement, Chinese ship orders plummeted, with Norwegian and European shipping giants redirecting 30% of their orders to South Korean shipyards, which are now benefiting from the situation [6]. - South Korean shipyards, such as Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries, have introduced "zero-risk compensation clauses" to attract clients and have seen a 25% increase in order tonnage by July [6]. - The global shipping chain has been disrupted, leading to increased shipping costs for high-value goods and a significant drop in shipping stocks on Wall Street [9]. Group 4: China's Countermeasures - In response to the U.S. policy, China has initiated reciprocal measures, including additional fees on Boeing aircraft entering Chinese ports and antitrust investigations into Qualcomm, impacting U.S. companies heavily reliant on the Chinese market [11]. - Chinese shipyards are upgrading their equipment and improving efficiency to capture markets in Southeast Asia and India, maintaining their leading position in global orders [11]. Group 5: Long-term Industry Dynamics - The ongoing trade conflict represents a struggle for global maritime influence, with shipping accounting for over 90% of world trade, and future trends leaning towards green transformation and digitalization [12]. - Despite U.S. efforts to regain its shipbuilding industry, analysts suggest that China's market share will remain above 60%, as the resilience of its industrial chain and international cooperation will enable it to adapt [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The global soybean trade landscape is undergoing a profound transformation due to China's shift in sourcing from Brazil and Argentina, significantly impacting U.S. agriculture [1]. Group 1: Chain Reaction of Order Shifts - In April, China imported 2.4 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, causing concern among U.S. soybean farmers [5]. - Following Argentina's announcement to cancel grain export tariffs on September 22, China quickly signed a contract for 650,000 tons, further deepening the despair among U.S. Midwest farmers [5]. Group 2: Unexpected Costs of Trade War - The shift originated from the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration in April 2025, which led to a near halt in U.S.-China trade as tariffs soared to 145% [9]. - By 2025, China had almost completely stopped importing U.S. soybeans, contrasting sharply with the 32.85 million tons imported in 2017, which accounted for 56.4% of U.S. exports [9]. Group 3: Technological Trade Barriers - China has established a rigorous detection system to ensure the smooth implementation of trade transformation, including biological characteristic detection to determine the origin of soybeans [11][13]. - A strict penalty mechanism has been put in place for intermediaries violating the ban on re-exporting U.S. soybeans, resulting in 88 farms declaring bankruptcy and 320,000 tons of unsold pork by-products facing spoilage risks [15][16][18]. Group 4: China's Strategic Layout - China is diversifying its procurement, with South American orders exceeding 10 million tons this oil season, doubling year-on-year [21][23]. - The country is also enhancing self-sufficiency by optimizing feed formulas and expanding domestic planting [21][24]. - China capitalized on market opportunities by signing significant contracts immediately after Argentina's tax reduction announcement [21][26]. Group 5: Economic Insights - The ongoing trade dynamics illustrate a profound economic principle: unilateralism in a globalized era often backfires, as evidenced by the accumulation of U.S. soybean inventories [27]. - China's development of a diversified agricultural supply system not only secures food safety but also demonstrates a cooperative and win-win approach to global trade [27].