Group 1 - The net financing amount of urban investment bonds has been negative for seven consecutive months, with a financing gap of 32.64 billion yuan in September [1] - In September, the issuance of urban investment bonds was 482.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.76% month-on-month, with a total issuance of 4,091.83 billion yuan and total repayment of 4,277.05 billion yuan for the year [1] - The overall financing pace in the urban investment bond market remains tight, with an increase in registrations, a slowdown in approvals, and a rise in terminations [1] Group 2 - After the National Day holiday, both the stock and bond markets experienced a positive start, with government bond futures rising and major interest rates on bonds declining [2] - The investment environment in the bond market has become more challenging compared to last year, influenced by various factors including the resumption of VAT on bond investments and new regulations on public funds [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.13 billion yuan on October 9 [6] - A one-stop account opening platform for foreign institutions in the interbank bond market has been launched, aimed at facilitating foreign investment [6] Group 4 - In the first nine months of the year, Inner Mongolia's technology innovation bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 11.5 billion yuan, supporting technology enterprises with core technologies [9] - Yunnan province has issued guidelines to encourage state-owned enterprises to acquire and revitalize historical risk real estate projects, while ensuring no new hidden government debt [9] Group 5 - The issuance of company bonds by Zhengzhou Road and Bridge Group is set at 500 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA [11] - The first expansion of a holding-type real estate ABS has been completed, raising an additional 453 million yuan, bringing the total scale to 1.623 billion yuan [13] Group 6 - The market sentiment regarding the bond market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a potential rebound in October, although institutions advise against chasing prices [20][21] - The bond market environment is improving, with better asset pricing and a focus on defensive strategies, particularly in the short to medium-term credit space [20]

Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1.1 trillion yuan to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] Group 2: Export Controls on Rare Earths - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain rare earth items and related technologies, requiring permits for the export of technologies related to rare earth mining, smelting, and recycling [2] Group 3: Resumption of Direct Flights - China and India are set to resume direct flights by the end of October this year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 612 billion yuan using a fixed rate and quantity tender method [1] Group 1 - The operation was aimed at providing liquidity to the financial system [1] - The amount of 612 billion yuan indicates a significant intervention in the market [1] - The use of a fixed rate and quantity tender method reflects the central bank's strategy to manage short-term liquidity effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 612 billion yuan, maintaining the operation interest rate at 1.40% [1] Group 1 - The total bidding amount for the reverse repurchase operation was 612 billion yuan, which matches the amount awarded [1] - The operation interest rate remains unchanged at 1.40%, consistent with previous rates [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market is closed while the Hong Kong stock market remains open, serving as a "barometer" for market sentiment, although it may not be entirely accurate [1] - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with silver rising by 14% and gold surpassing $3,900, reaching a historical high [1] - The semiconductor sector is also performing well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 6%, reaching a new high, and foreign banks setting target prices at HKD 117 [1] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for Q3 2025 has returned to 50.8, indicating a recovery in industrial production, while retail consumption has increased by 6.1% year-on-year [7] - Despite positive economic indicators, the general public does not feel significant improvements in income, as wages remain unchanged while prices continue to rise [7] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The market sentiment is cautious, with the A50 index showing minor fluctuations and external factors influencing investor confidence [3] - Historical data suggests a 70% probability of an increase on the first trading day after the holiday, with a 60% chance of continued gains over the next five days [3] - The A-share index approached 3,899.96 points before the holiday, but lacked sufficient trading volume, making it susceptible to high volatility [9] Trading Dynamics - The market is characterized by a mix of buying and waiting, with investors eager to act but uncertain about the next market direction [12] - The potential for a "red opening" exists, but sustained high trading volumes are necessary for a breakout above 3,900 points; otherwise, the market may experience fluctuations similar to previous days [9][10]

Economic Stability - Domestic economic data shows marginal stabilization, with the PMI recorded at 49.8 in September, up from 49.4 in August, indicating a slight recovery after a slowdown in July and August [1][6][7] - The EPMI for September increased by 4.6 points to 52.4, reflecting seasonal recovery trends [6] - The BCI index rose from 46.9 in August to 51.1 in September, slightly exceeding expectations [6] Foreign Reserves and Monetary Policy - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,387 billion at the end of September, an increase of $165 billion from August, marking a continuous rise after a brief decline in July [1][6][7] - The central bank's gold reserves stood at 7,406 million ounces at the end of September, up by 40,000 ounces from August, marking 11 consecutive months of increases [1][6][7] - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 1.1 trillion yuan on October 9, aimed at maintaining liquidity stability post-holiday [1][6][8] Travel and Tourism - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 6, the average daily cross-regional movement of people reached 295 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [2][8] - The national migration scale index showed a year-on-year increase of 20.3% during the same period [2][9] - Predictions indicate that daily inbound and outbound travelers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays will exceed 2 million, with total cross-border travel expected to increase by over 35% compared to last year [2][12][13] Retail Market Performance - The retail market showed stable growth, with key retail and catering enterprises' sales increasing by 3.3% year-on-year during the first four days of the holiday [3][14] - Sales of green organic food on major e-commerce platforms rose by 20.1%, while energy-efficient appliances saw a 19% increase [3][14] - Movie box office revenues during the holiday period averaged 246 million yuan per day, down 18.0% year-on-year, with attendance also declining by 9.8% [3][14] Real Estate Market - National real estate sales were weaker than the previous year, with average daily transactions in 30 major cities dropping by 19.0% year-on-year during the holiday [3][15] - First-tier cities showed relatively stronger performance, with sales in first, second, and third-tier cities recording year-on-year changes of 5.2%, -31.9%, and -24.7% respectively [3][15] Port Activity and Exports - Port container throughput remained strong, with a year-on-year increase of 12.0% from September 29 to October 5, indicating robust export growth [4][17] - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated investigations into trade barriers following Mexico's anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products [4][17][18] Technological Advancements - Significant breakthroughs were reported in the technology sector, including advancements in solid-state lithium batteries and enzyme catalysis research [4][18][19] Policy Insights - Recent articles in the People's Daily have focused on the current economic situation, emphasizing the resilience and vitality of China's economy under the leadership of the central government [4][20][21]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a 1,817 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a stable interest rate of 1.8%, aimed at managing liquidity before the National Day holiday [1][3] - This operation is a routine liquidity management measure, contrasting with previous years where single-day reverse repos reached up to 5,000 billion yuan, indicating a focus on "precise regulation" rather than "strong stimulus" [3][4] Group 2 - The short-term impact on the market is limited, but the operation signals that the central bank maintains a reasonable liquidity level and reassures that there will be no sudden policy shifts [4] - The macroeconomic policy remains supportive of growth, as evidenced by recent MLF operations and accelerated issuance of special bonds [4] Group 3 - Long-term investors should focus on three key indicators: MLF operation rates as a policy interest rate benchmark, social financing data to gauge real financing demand in the economy, and inflation expectations, particularly the core CPI [5] - The current environment suggests that investors should look for opportunities in undervalued stocks, especially if market volatility occurs post-holiday [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent macro - environment is generally favorable. Overseas, the Sino - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals and the Fed's first rate cut this year is beneficial to A - shares. Domestically, poor economic data has led to stronger policy expectations, increasing the necessity of promoting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and expanding fiscal policies. The stock index trend continues to be bullish, but the policy aims for a "slow - bull" pattern to avoid rapid rallies, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, controlling positions before the holiday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market and Liquidity - **Interest Rates**: DROO1 closed at 1.47 with a 3.76bp increase, DR007 at 1.60 with a 1.53bp increase, GC001 at 1.50 with a - 14.50bp change, GC007 at 1.88 with a - 4.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.57 with a 0.80bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37 with no change, 5 - year treasury at 1.63 with a - 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a - 1.00bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.16 with a 4.00bp increase [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday, with 4870 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan. This week, there are 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing from Monday to Friday (2800 billion, 2870 billion, 4185 billion, 4870 billion, 3543 billion respectively), and 3000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on September 25 [3] Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.6% to 4593.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.45% to 2952.7, the CSI 500 rose 0.24% to 7341.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.37% to 7506.5. The trading volume of the two markets was 23711 billion yuan, an increase of 443 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with game, power equipment, energy metals, and wind power equipment sectors rising, while precious metals, shipping ports, jewelry, gas, engineering machinery, and auto - service sectors falling [4] - **Futures Contracts**: For IF, the current - month contract rose 0.6%, with a trading volume of 133482 (down 9.0%) and an open interest of 266373 (up 1.0%); for IH, the current - month contract rose 0.4%, with a trading volume of 51813 (down 16.6%) and an open interest of 94947 (down 3.4%); for IC, the current - month contract rose 0.2%, with a trading volume of 129665 (down 26.8%) and an open interest of 248859 (down 2.8%); for IM, the current - month contract fell 0.4%, with a trading volume of 212836 (down 27.5%) and an open interest of 353327 (down 3.3%) [4] - **Premium and Discount**: IF's current - month contract has a 0.00% premium, IH's current - month contract has a - 0.60% discount, IC's current - month contract has a 10.88% premium, and IM's current - month contract has a 13.68% premium [5]

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 165.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% [1] - Additionally, a 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 600 billion yuan was carried out using a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding method [1] - With 354.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the net injection for the day was 411.5 billion yuan [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and rising risk appetite. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.23, down 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1146, up 0.001 (+0.01%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, with no change (-0.27%); DR007 was 1.48, down 0.01 (-0.90%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, up 0.01 (+0.63%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.63%) [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures related to the closing price trends, price change rates, capital precipitation trends, position ratios, net position ratios of the top 20, long - short position ratios of the top 20, the spread between government - owned enterprise bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures contracts [13][16][18][22]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows figures on the Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [28][36]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures contracts and the term spreads of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][37][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][49][52]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][74]. 4. Market Analysis 4.1 Macroeconomic Aspects - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The previous bonds issued before this date will remain VAT - exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and increase effective investment [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. 4.2 Capital Aspects - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed, indicating increased capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - to - long - term corporate financing demand. Deposits increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion power and the economy being in a weak recovery stage [2]. - Central Bank: On September 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.462%, 1.567%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4.3 Market Aspects - Closing Prices: On September 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.63 yuan, 107.72 yuan, and 114.32 yuan respectively, with price change rates of - 0.05%, - 0.13%, - 0.21%, and - 0.67% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.007 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, 0.018 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively [2]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].