期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货震荡小幅调整 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。央行表示 2026 年要继续实施好适度宽 松的货币政策，具体方面的表述是"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策 工具"，这说明降息的条件会根据外部货币环境以及国内经济基本面综合考 虑。考虑到短期内宏观数据表现较强韧性，货币政策宽松的紧迫性下降，叠 加一季度国债密集发行带来的供给端压力，国债期货价格承压。当然中长期 来看内需有效需求不足的问题仍需偏宽松的货币信用环境，未来仍存降息 可能性，国债期货支撑力量仍存。总的来说，预计短期内震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反 ...

央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年1月8日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、 多重价位中标方式 开展11000亿元买断式逆回购 操作，期限为3个月（90天）。 | | | | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | 金融科技 | | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 报刊年鉴 | | 网送文告 | | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中心 | 网上 ...

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.26 with a 2.07 bp increase, DR007 at 1.43 with a 0.26 bp increase, GC001 at 1.74 with a 173.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.57 with a 156.50 bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.32 with a 1.80 bp increase, 5 - year at 1.62 with a 1.00 bp increase, 10 - year at 1.83 with a 1.70 bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 0.00 with no change [3] - The central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operation rate of 1.40%, and 3125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan [3] - This week, 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases will mature on Thursday, and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Friday [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 rose 1.9% to 4717.7, the SSE 50 rose 2.26% to 3099.7, the CSI 500 rose 2.49% to 7651.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.09% to 7753.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 28326 billion yuan, an increase of 2651 billion yuan [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with only the beauty and care sector falling [6] - In the short term, the stock index may continue its strong trend, and in 2026, it is expected to rise further on the basis of 2025 [7] - It is recommended that investors choose to build long positions [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Domestic factors have a generally positive impact on the stock index, including improved fundamental data, policy support, good liquidity, and high market risk - appetite [6] - In December 2025, both the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range [6] - In 2026, the "two new" policies were clearly implemented, and the scope of equipment renewal support was broadened [6] - Before the festival, the trading activity of A - shares increased significantly, and the margin trading balance increased [6] - During the festival, the Hong Kong stock market and the A50 index performed actively, and the RMB exchange rate strengthened [6]

人民财讯1月7日电，央行公开市场开展286亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，与前次持平。 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index has risen with increased trading volume and may continue its strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk preference. In the long - term, the stock index in 2026 is expected to continue to rise on the basis of 2025 due to continuous macro - policy efforts, moderate inflation recovery, capital market reform policies, and the supporting role of Central Huijin. It is recommended that investors mainly choose to build long positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Financial Market Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price and change of various interest rate varieties are presented. For example, DROO1 is at 1.26 with a 2.07bp increase, GC001 is at 1.49 with a - 37.50bp decrease, etc. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The closing price and change of different - term treasury bonds are given. The 1 - year treasury bond is at 1.32 with a 1.80bp increase, and the 10 - year treasury bond is at 1.83 with a - 1.70bp decrease. The 10 - year US Treasury bond is at 4.19 with a 1.00bp increase [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4823 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 4688 billion yuan. This week, 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases on Thursday and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits on Friday [3][4] Stock Index Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are reported. The CSI 300 rose 1.9% to 4717.7, and the SSE 50 rose 2.26% to 3099.7. The trading volume of the two markets reached 25675 billion yuan, a significant increase of 5016 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with insurance, medical devices, etc. leading the gains [5] - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices, daily changes, trading volumes, and open interests of stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, IF's closing price is 4714 with a 2.0% increase, and its trading volume increased by 20.0% [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: The premium and discount rates of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, including next - month, current - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts. For example, IF's next - month contract has a premium rate of 2.63% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank conducted a 162 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 7-day maturity at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation [1] Group 1 - The central bank's reverse repurchase operation aims to manage liquidity in the financial system [1] - A total of 312.5 billion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature today, indicating significant liquidity movements [1]

Group 1 - The central bank net injected 100 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) in December 2025 [1] - In December 2025, the central bank conducted 7-day reverse repurchase operations amounting to 3.5361 trillion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 3.4542 trillion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 81.9 billion yuan [1] - In the open market operations, there was a net injection of 400 billion yuan through reverse repos of other maturities in December 2025 [1]

每经AI快讯，1月5日，央行发布的数据显示，2025年12月，公开市场业务中，其他期限逆回购净投放 4000亿元。 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with Shanghai aluminum leading at a rise of 3.98%, reaching a peak of 23,780 yuan/ton, a new high since March 2022 [1] - Shanghai copper, zinc, and tin also saw gains exceeding 2%, with copper up 2.68%, zinc up 2.25%, and tin up 2.45% [1] - Other metals had increases of less than 1%, while alumina rose by 0.14% and casting aluminum surged by 4.14%, hitting a historical high of 22,695 yuan/ton since its listing [1] - Lithium carbonate increased by 7.74%, and polysilicon rose by 2.31%, while industrial silicon fell by 1.24% [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore was the only metal to rise, up 0.95%, while hot-rolled and rebar both fell over 0.7% [1] - As of 15:04, foreign base metals were generally up, with London nickel stable at $16,820/ton, and tin rising by 5.22% and copper by 3.39% [1] - Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up 2.3% and silver up 6%, while domestic gold and silver rose by 1.4% and 1.16% respectively [1][2] Macro Environment - The Chinese Commodity Price Index rose for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 117.9 points in December 2025, a 3.2% increase from the previous month, indicating improved market conditions [6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining a stable monetary policy [7] - The US dollar index increased by 0.22% to 98.66, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The central focus of the article is on the upcoming maturity of various reverse repos and treasury cash deposits in the central bank's open market operations, indicating liquidity management strategies [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Maturities - A total of 13,236 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature next week, with specific maturities of 4,823 billion yuan, 3,125 billion yuan, and 5,288 billion yuan due from Monday to Wednesday [1] - There are no reverse repos maturing on Thursday and Friday, which may influence liquidity conditions in the market [1] Group 2: Other Financial Instruments - On Thursday, an additional 11,000 billion yuan in buyout reverse repos will mature, further impacting the liquidity landscape [1] - On Friday, 600 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits will also reach maturity, contributing to the overall liquidity management [1]