Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's open - market operations last week had a net injection of 126.72 billion yuan, and this week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature. The central bank will conduct a 30 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on the 25th, with a net injection of 31.8 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity. It is expected that the central bank may continue to supplement liquidity through operations in the second half of the year [4][5] - In the first half of the year, the stock index showed a volatile pattern. Due to insufficient domestic demand support, significant policy support, and frequent overseas disturbances, the upward and downward movement of the stock index was restricted. In the second half of the year, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone. Policy support for domestic demand is expected to increase, and overseas factors will bring trading opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Market - **Interest Rate Data**: DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a - 0.17bp change, DR007 at 1.70 with a 1.18bp change, GC001 at 3.89 with a 216.50bp change, etc. [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repo operations and 30 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 126.72 billion yuan. This week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature, and a 30 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation will be carried out on the 25th, with a net injection of 31.8 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Stock Index Quotes**: On the last trading day of the week, the CSI 300 fell 0.61% to 3921.8, the SSE 50 fell 1.13% to 2707.6, the CSI 500 rose 0.44% to 5863.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 6276.9. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.5411 trillion yuan, a decrease of 42.1 billion yuan. The industry sectors showed more gains than losses [6] - **Stock Index Analysis**: In the first half of the year, the stock index showed a volatile pattern. In the second half of the year, policy support for domestic demand is expected to increase, and overseas factors will bring trading opportunities [7] - **Stock Index Futures**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all have different levels of premium or discount rates [8]

Group 1 - In June, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331.5 billion yuan, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 111 billion yuan [1] - The Canadian government has canceled its digital services tax to advance trade negotiations with the United States, with discussions between Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Trump aimed at reaching an agreement by July 21 [1] Group 2 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.93%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.42%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.12% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-30 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 202506 ...

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on "Promoting High-Quality Development of Culture and Tourism to Enrich People's Lives" [2] - The Taiwan Affairs Office will hold a regular press conference to address recent cross-strait hot issues [3] Group 2 - A total of 8 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked today, with a total unlock volume of 176 million shares, amounting to a market value of 1.019 billion yuan [4] - Among the companies, Baosteel Packaging, Ruifeng Bank, and Baoming Technology have the highest unlock volumes and market values, with unlock volumes of 143 million shares, 29.01 million shares, and 1.2653 million shares respectively [4] - Baosteel Packaging has the highest unlock market value at 682 million yuan, followed by Ruifeng Bank at 173 million yuan and Baoming Technology at 7.5891 million yuan [4] - One company has an unlock ratio exceeding 10%, with Baosteel Packaging at 11.19%, Ruifeng Bank at 1.48%, and Baoming Technology at 0.7% [4] Group 3 - 26 companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with 28 related announcements made [5] - Among these, 11 companies have disclosed stock repurchase plans for the first time, with the highest planned repurchase amounts from Shanying International at 1 billion yuan, Shengxin Lithium Energy at 500 million yuan, and Hualan Biological Engineering at 140 million yuan [5] - Three companies have had their repurchase plans approved by shareholders, with the highest amounts from Yanshan Technology at 60 million yuan, China Resources Materials at 24.96 million yuan, and Bayi Steel at 18.4575 million yuan [5] Group 4 - A total of 156.3 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, with an operation rate of 1.4% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the liquidity situation from June 16 - 20, 2025, indicating that the overall capital market shows a state of balanced and slightly loose funds, with some indicators showing upward or downward trends, and the market's expectation of the capital situation is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the impact of factors such as the end - of - quarter credit impulse and government bond supply on the capital market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rates - Last week, the open - market maturity was 1040.2 billion yuan, including 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturity. The open - market investment was 960.3 billion yuan, all in reverse repurchase, with a net withdrawal of 7.99 billion yuan. The overall capital situation was balanced and slightly loose, with the average DR007 at 1.52%, up 0.5BP from the previous week, and the average R007 at 1.58%, up 1BP from the previous week. The average DR001 and R001 were 1.38% and 1.44% respectively. The exchange repurchase rate increased, with the average GC007 at 1.61%, up 4BP from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of reverse repurchase was 960.3 billion yuan, up from the previous week [1]. 3.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) and IRS Yields - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 1021.64 billion yuan, the issuance was 1102.32 billion yuan, and the net financing scale was 80.68 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA CDs was 1.64%, down from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 1137.81 billion yuan, with a greater maturity pressure than the previous week. In terms of interest rate swaps, the average of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.53%, up from the previous week. The market's expectation of the capital situation is stable, and CDs are more affected by seasonal supply - demand pressure [2]. 3.3 Repurchase Volume and Institutional Behavior - Last week, the volume of pledged repurchase was between 7.7 - 8.8 trillion yuan, with the average R001 repurchase volume at 7462.2 billion yuan, up 361.4 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of repurchase was 12.7 trillion yuan, up from the previous week. The repurchase leverage has returned to the high point of December last year. By institution, the lending scale of large banks increased, while that of money market funds decreased. The borrowing scales of securities firms, funds, and wealth management increased. As of Friday, the repurchase balances of large banks and money market funds were 5.30 trillion yuan and 1.94 trillion yuan, up 358.3 billion yuan and down 9.4 billion yuan respectively from the previous week. The positive repurchase balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management were 1.86 trillion yuan, 2.47 trillion yuan, and 777.6 billion yuan respectively, up 21.7 billion yuan, 83.5 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan respectively from the previous week [3]. 3.4 Bill Rates and Exchange Rates - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 1.05%, up from the last trading day of the previous week. Near the end of the quarter, attention should be paid to the situation of credit impulse. Last Friday, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.18, up slightly from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed. Last week, the Fed held its June FOMC meeting, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25 - 4.5%, maintaining the interest rate unchanged for four consecutive times, while raising the inflation forecast and lowering the economic growth forecast, suggesting an increase in stagflation risk. Due to the Fed's caution, the approaching inflation pulse, and the Treasury's supply pressure, short - term US bond yields may remain high [4]. 3.5 This Week's Key Concerns - This week, the open - market capital maturity is 1060.3 billion yuan, including 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 100 billion yuan of treasury deposit maturity. On Friday, China's industrial enterprise profits for May will be announced, and attention should be paid to the enterprise profit repair situation. The eurozone's economic sentiment index for June will also be announced on Friday, and attention should be paid to the eurozone's economic trend. In addition, the US PCE for May will be announced on Friday, and attention should be paid to the inflation trend. This week, the 7 - day repurchase starts to cross the quarter, and the government bond supply scale is large. Attention should be paid to the impact on the capital situation [5].

Core Points - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 220.5 billion yuan for a 7-day term at an interest rate of 1.40%, which remains unchanged from previous rates [1] - A total of 242 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.5 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The overall liquidity in the market is balanced and loose, with DR001 falling below the 1.4% policy rate, and state-owned banks' net financing reaching a year-high of 4.55 trillion yuan [1][11][27] - Historical trends indicate that at the end of June, funding rates typically rise, but the central bank often increases liquidity support, especially during a month with significant fiscal spending [21][27] - Concerns for the upcoming cross-quarter period include a high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit exceeding 4 trillion yuan, and a recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks, which may lead to deposit outflows [26][27] Group 2 - Next week, the market will see over 10 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, along with the continuation of MLF operations, indicating ongoing liquidity support from the central bank [2][33] - Government bond net payments are expected to increase significantly, with a net payment of 7.498 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial fiscal activity [4][31] - The interbank certificate of deposit maturity will be 11.092 trillion yuan, which remains substantial, and attention will be paid to the pressure of renewing these deposits as the quarter-end approaches [6][31] Group 3 - The average daily net financing from state-owned banks has been rising, with a significant increase noted this week, indicating a robust liquidity position [5][27] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit remains stable, with no significant upward pressure on rates, suggesting a controlled liquidity environment [6][27] - The second quarter has seen an acceleration in fiscal bond issuance, which is expected to provide additional liquidity support as the quarter-end approaches [27][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the policy support period, treasury bond futures showed divergent trends. The central bank's operations and policy adjustments aimed to boost credit, stabilize market expectations, and promote high - quality economic development. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations affected market risk appetite, and the suspension of tariffs and export rush provided short - term support for domestic demand, which might delay the subsequent policy rhythm. In the context of capital disturbances, policy wait - and - see, and supply pressure in June, the bond market will maintain a short - term volatile and slightly strong pattern, and a clear policy signal is needed to break the situation [1][2][3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30%. Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, with a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%; manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02%. Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index was 98.79, with a decrease of 0.06 and a decline rate of 0.06%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1932, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.26%; DR007 was 1.54, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.14%; R007 was 1.64, with a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.60, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.37%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.37% [7][8] 3.2 Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds with various terms, the valuation change of treasury bonds with various terms in the past day, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, etc [9][13][15] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report shows multiple charts such as the bond lending turnover and the total position of treasury bond futures, the trading - to - position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank repurchase with collateral, and the issuance of local government bonds [24][26][27] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (2*TS - TF), etc [32][35] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [38][40][51] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [47][50][53] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [58][60] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the nearly three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the nearly three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [66][70][72]

央行今日开展1612亿元7天 逆回购操作。 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-06-19 政策呵护期内，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...