Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% during the upcoming decision, with investors focusing on dissenting votes and statements to gauge future rate cuts [3] - Recent economic data indicates that the U.S. economy is performing better than expected, although concerns about a weak labor market persist, and inflation continues to gradually decline from high levels [3] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, with a significant likelihood of another cut by the end of the year [3] Group 2: Earnings Season and Key Companies - The earnings season is gaining momentum, with major tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla set to report their performance [4] - Other companies of interest during the earnings season include Texas Instruments, SanDisk, UPS, Boeing, Starbucks, and American Express [4] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical factors, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.92% to $61.07 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 2.73% to $65.88 per barrel [6] - Gold futures for January delivery rose by 8.45% to $4976.20 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 14.57% to $100.92 per ounce, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical turmoil [6] - The demand for hard assets has increased due to a weaker U.S. dollar, declining real yields, and heightened policy uncertainty, further supporting silver prices [6]

据金吾财讯消息，英国1月标普全球综合PMI初值从去年12月的51.4跃升至53.9，显著高于市场预期 的51.5，创下2024年4月以来最快增速。服务业表现尤为亮眼，商业活动指数升至54.3（前值51.4）；制 造业PMI同样攀升至51.6（前值50.6），达到17个月高点。这是过去四个月中第三次出现新订单增长， 主要受出口销售改善推动。 03 经济增速与前景评估 标普全球首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森指出，1月份的PMI初值数据"预示着稳健的季度GDP增 长，可能接近0.4%"。这一评估显示，英国经济在2026年初呈现稳健增长态势。 威廉姆森进一步指出，尽管服务业仍然是增长的主要引擎，特别是金融服务业和科技行业。 01 超出预期的经济扩张 英国2026年1月的经济表现远超市场预期。综合PMI初值53.9，不仅远超51.5的市场预期，也是自 2024年4月以来的最高水平。 服务业PMI的迅猛增长尤其令人瞩目。从12月的51.4飙升至54.3，这一跃升幅度展现了服务业强劲 的扩张势头。 制造业也展现出了坚实的复苏迹象。制造业PMI从50.6进一步改善至51.6，连续第四个月保持在荣 枯线以上，并达到了自202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs on January 23, with gold hitting $4,959 and silver rising to $96, driven by increased market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The rise in gold and silver prices is supported by three main factors: increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, heightened geopolitical tensions, and ongoing purchases of gold by central banks [1] - Historically, gold tends to outperform most assets during periods of rising inflation, a trend that is continuing in the current market environment [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Conservative investors may consider physical gold bars for security, while those seeking liquidity might opt for gold ETFs due to their ease of trading [1] - Investors willing to accept higher volatility could explore mining stocks, which can offer greater returns but also come with increased risk [1] - The rapid increase in silver prices has led to significant changes in the gold-silver ratio, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunities for investors [1]

"我们预计反弹势头将持续，"宝盛集团股票策略主管Mathieu Racheter表示，"真正重要的是要超越地缘 政治新闻的表象，着眼于大局：经济增长依然稳健，通胀压力得到控制，欧股预计将实现双位数的盈利 增长。" 随着特朗普宣布不对反对美国获得格陵兰的欧洲国家加关税，欧股五天来首次上涨，同时一系列乐观的 企业财报也提振了市场情绪。 斯托克欧洲600指数收涨1%，这是自11月以来的最大涨幅。巴克莱衡量的受贸易影响较大的一篮子股票 （包括奢侈品制造商和汽车制造商）上涨1.3%。有报道称基尔·斯塔默的执政受到潜在挑战，导致富时 100指数跑输。 建筑板块也跑赢，而矿业和能源板块则最为滞后。 特朗普此前威胁要就格陵兰问题征收10%的关税，导致地缘政治不确定性飙升，引发了对经济增长前景 的担忧，进而动摇了投资者情绪。斯托克600指数在本周前三天下跌了近2%。 受财报影响的个股方面，大众汽车上涨6.5%，这家德国公司公布的汽车部门现金流高于预期。轮胎制 造商米其林走高3.5%，其发布的自由现金流初值也超出预期。 另一方面，育碧暴跌40%，创纪录最大跌幅，这家法国电子游戏公司下调了业绩指引并宣布取消六款游 戏。德国医疗光学 ...

劳动力市场数据以及下周的季度通胀数据，是政策制定者在澳洲联储2月2日至3日政策会议前至关重要 的参考依据。该行可能正接近一个转折点，需要决定是保持关键利率不变，还是转向加息以帮助遏制新 的通胀压力。 新华财经北京1月22日电由于就业增长超出预期，澳大利亚12月份失业率意外下降，这支撑了澳洲联储 的观点，即在2月政策决定前劳动力市场依然紧张。 澳大利亚统计局周四公布的数据显示，失业率从4.3%降至4.1%，市场预期为4.4%。就业人数增加了6.52 万人，主要由全职岗位带动，远超预期的3万人增长。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving multipolar world order, highlighting the geopolitical tensions and their impact on various markets, particularly focusing on commodities like oil, lithium carbonate, and precious metals [1][2][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has officially exited the World Health Organization after a year of submitting its application, which reflects a significant shift in international relations [1]. - Tensions surrounding Greenland's sovereignty have been emphasized, with Denmark firmly stating it will not negotiate with the U.S. on this matter [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - **Oil**: The SC night market saw a 1.22% increase, with geopolitical risks diminishing as Trump adopts a wait-and-see approach regarding Iran. The OPEC report predicts stable demand for oil from member countries, with daily demand expected to rise to 43 million barrels by 2026 [2][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons, with strong terminal demand. However, the price surge may suppress end-user demand in the short term [3][25]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices continue to rebound due to rising geopolitical uncertainties, while silver and platinum are supported by supply-demand gaps. The macroeconomic environment, including easing inflation pressures in the U.S., is expected to support the long-term upward trend of precious metals [4][20]. Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The stock market is experiencing a shift from valuation-driven growth to profit-driven growth, with expectations of continued upward movement supported by supply-side reforms and economic recovery [12]. - The bond market shows a slight increase in long-term yields, with the central bank maintaining a stable monetary policy while indicating potential for further easing [13]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - **Artificial Intelligence**: The core industry scale of AI in China is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025, with significant advancements in humanoid robots and 6G technology trials [9]. - **Agricultural Products**: Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, with expectations of increased production, while domestic pressures on soybean prices remain due to high inventory levels [30]. Group 5: Shipping and Logistics - The shipping index is experiencing downward pressure as Maersk reduces prices to attract cargo ahead of the Chinese New Year, indicating a potential decline in freight rates [34].

Group 1 - The situation in Greenland has heightened demand for gold, pushing prices to a historic high of $4,780 per ounce, reflecting increasing global economic uncertainty [1] - President Donald Trump's firm stance on acquiring Greenland has intensified geopolitical risk concerns, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - The potential for increased tariffs on European countries has further escalated market uncertainty, driving investors towards gold [3] Group 2 - The collapse of the Japanese government bond market has raised concerns about the fiscal health of major economies, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [4] - A shift towards "devaluation trades" has become a mainstream strategy, with investors reallocating assets to gold as a hard currency amid rising currency devaluation risks [5] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation report, which could significantly influence future Federal Reserve interest rate policies and, consequently, gold prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Cautious bearish: Crude oil, methanol, apple, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, container shipping to Europe [5] - Cautiously bullish: Stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, corn [5] Core View of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026 due to factors such as the technology cycle, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [13] - Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and central bank gold purchases [3][4] - The oil market's geopolitical risk premium has decreased, but the demand for OPEC+ crude oil is expected to increase in 2026 and 2027 [2][16] - The copper market may experience a phased correction due to supply disruptions and weakening downstream demand [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day - **International News:** US Treasury Secretary revealed that Trump is close to nominating the next Fed chair and has narrowed the candidates to four, with the final decision possibly announced next week. He also responded to the "kill line" phenomenon and blamed the Biden administration [7] - **Domestic News:** In 2026, China's macro policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand, including optimizing policies, formulating plans, and promoting high-tech industries [8] - **Industry News:** During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will improve water resource management and conservation, aiming for an irrigation water utilization coefficient of over 0.6 and a water-saving industry scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined, while the US dollar index also fell [11] - London gold and silver prices rose, while most base metals and agricultural products declined [11] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial:** The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, while the bond market has stabilized due to policy support and a cooling equity market [13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals:** Crude oil prices may be under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks and increased supply expectations. Methanol prices are expected to rise in the short term, while rubber prices may be volatile [16][17][18] - **Metals:** Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, while copper and zinc prices may experience a phased correction. Aluminum prices may be supported by low inventory in the long term [22][23][24][26] - **Black Metals:** Coking coal and steel prices may be strong in the short term, while iron ore prices are expected to remain stable [28][29][30] - **Agricultural Products:** Protein meal prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and a bumper harvest in South America. Vegetable oil prices may be supported by strong exports and policy expectations [31][32] - **Shipping Index:** Container shipping rates to Europe are expected to decline before the Spring Festival due to increased supply and weak demand [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals amidst geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors, suggesting a continued upward trend for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold continues to rebound, driven by increased market demand for safe-haven assets due to rising geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Silver and platinum are supported not only by macroeconomic factors but also by supply-demand gaps, with silver experiencing tight supply and robust industrial demand [3]. - The long-term upward trend for gold is expected to persist, bolstered by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, central bank purchases, and heightened geopolitical risks [3]. Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with geopolitical risk premiums decreasing as President Trump adopts a more cautious stance regarding Iran [2][14]. - OPEC's report indicates that global demand for oil from member countries is expected to remain stable, with daily demand projected to increase to 43 million barrels by 2026 [2][14]. Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have decreased by 1.28%, with tight concentrate supply and fluctuating smelting profits impacting the market [20]. - The overall growth in smelting output continues, but the supply disruptions are shifting global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [20]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation pressures are easing, with December's core CPI rebound lower than expected, indicating a potential continuation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3][12]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support the long-term performance of precious metals, as liquidity remains loose [3]. Group 5: Domestic Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission of China plans to focus on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand in 2026, which may influence various sectors [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance water resource management and promote water-saving industries, targeting a significant increase in agricultural irrigation efficiency by 2030 [8].

Group 1 - The traditional labor market frameworks, namely the Phillips Curve and the Beveridge Curve, are facing systematic challenges as labor market dynamics in developed economies, particularly the U.S., deviate from historical patterns [2][4] - The Phillips Curve is flattening, indicating a weaker relationship between unemployment rates and inflation, as AI alters the labor supply dynamics and reduces the sensitivity of wage growth to labor market tightness [4][5] - The Beveridge Curve is shifting outward, reflecting a structural mismatch in the labor market where high vacancy rates do not correspond to lower unemployment, primarily due to AI's impact on middle-skill jobs [5][6] Group 2 - AI's influence on the labor market is primarily task-based rather than job-based, leading to a reduction in marginal labor demand for tasks that AI can perform more efficiently [3][4] - The introduction of AI has resulted in a significant increase in the elasticity of effective labor supply, meaning that a decrease in unemployment does not necessarily indicate a tightening labor market [4][5] - The wage formation mechanism is becoming more stratified, with non-replaceable tasks commanding wage premiums while replaceable tasks face downward pressure, thus diminishing the average wage's sensitivity to labor market conditions [5][6] Group 3 - The efficiency of wage growth in transmitting inflation signals is weakening, as AI enhances labor productivity without a corresponding increase in employment levels, leading to a potential overestimation of inflation persistence when relying solely on wage data [6][7] - Unemployment rates are responding more slowly to economic changes, necessitating a shift in monetary policy focus to potential risks before significant labor market deterioration occurs [6][7] - Future monetary policy may adopt a forward-looking risk management approach, allowing for preemptive easing measures even before core employment indicators show clear signs of weakness [7]