Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% for this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the April prediction, and 3.1% for 2026, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The global trade growth forecast has been raised by 0.9 percentage points to 2.6% for this year, indicating resilience in the global economy amid increasing uncertainties [1] - China's economic growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.8 percentage points to 5.6% for this year, and by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for India has been slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.4% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points for next year [1] - Developed economies' growth predictions have been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% for this year and 1.6% for next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% for this year and by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for developing countries has been raised by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0% for next year [1] - The Eurozone growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0% for this year, while the next year's forecast remains at 1.2% [1] Group 2 - The IMF warns that there are still widespread downside risks to the economic situation, including potential increases in average tariff rates and unresolved trade tensions stemming from the Trump administration [2] - Ongoing uncertainties may begin to suppress economic activity, while geopolitical tensions could exacerbate inflationary pressures and disrupt supply chains [2] - High debt levels, unstable public finances, and various structural imbalances continue to pose significant risks [2]

美联储的决策困境随之加剧：一边是通胀压力如火焰升腾，一边是增长前景如寒冰凝结，政策天平 在"灭火"与"保温"间艰难摇摆，普通人的钱包却成为无声的牺牲品。 美国《财富》杂志网站报道，美国6月核心商品价格创两年来最大涨幅，CPI持续攀升2.7%。这不仅是 冰冷数据，更像是一颗经济"延时炸弹"被引爆的倒计时。 若企业将关税成本悉数转嫁给市场，物价的加速飙升将如沉重枷锁，锁住民众的消费意愿与能力。当普 通家庭在超市货架前犹豫不决时，消费引擎的熄火便近在眼前。 特朗普的关税壁垒，本意打造"美国优先"的护盾，却在经济规律的无情折射下，化作一枚凌厉的回旋 镖。 当核心通胀率飙升成为现实，企业与消费者在转嫁与消化的两难中挣扎，美联储在通胀与增长的钢丝上 战战兢兢。特朗普挥舞关税大棒，最终恐难避免全民买单的结局。 企业同样深陷泥潭。若选择咬牙自吞关税苦果，利润空间被强行挤压，无异于抽走投资与创新的血液。 裁员阴影可能蔓延，劳动力市场随之承压——底层员工与求职者将沦为这场无声战役中的"次生伤员"。 更令人警醒的是，历史教训犹在耳畔：过往研究表明，美国进口商与中国出口商往往共同分担关税成 本，而美国消费者最终承受了大部分实际负担。 ...

黄金周四（7月31日）亚盘慢涨走势，到欧盘初最高上涨至3315附近，随后承压开始震荡下跌，美盘最低跌至3289附近，尾盘维持在3299-3289区间震荡，日 线收出一根带有长上影的阳线。 一、基本面 1、关税不确定性引发避险情绪 5、今日重点关注 15:50-16:30，法国/德国/欧元区/英国7月制造业PMI终值； 17:00，欧元区7月CPI年率/月率初值； 20:30，美国7月失业率、季调后非农就业人口、平均每小时工资年率/月率； 特朗普签署行政命令调整多数国家对等关税税率，将加拿大关税从25%上调至35%，8月1日生效，同时对巴西和韩国部分进口产品加征关税，给予墨西哥90 天关税豁免期，对未达成协议的国家8月1日后实施更高关税。关税政策加剧全球贸易伙伴紧张关系，推高进口商品价格，刺激通胀压力，导致市场紧张情绪 上升，投资者转向黄金等避险资产。 2、美国通胀压力升温 美国6月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数环比上涨0.3%，高于5月修正后的0.2%，核心PCE通胀率同比增长2.8%，商品价格上涨明显。惠誉评级美国经济研究 主管认为当前通胀趋势与美联储2%目标背道而驰，可能使市场对9月或10月降息预期复杂化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) needs to remain flexible in adjusting interest rates as inflation pressures are under control, with the eurozone inflation rate at the target level of 2% and France's at a lower rate of 0.9% [1] Group 1 - ECB's Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau emphasized the importance of keeping an open stance on future monetary policy decisions [1] - The market is gradually reducing the likelihood of a final rate cut in the current cycle [1] - Villeroy noted that the increase in U.S. tariffs, the extent of which remains unclear, is not expected to lead to rising inflation [1] Group 2 - The appreciation of the euro is having a significant downward effect on inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in U.S. inflation as indicated by the June CPI data, which shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in the previous month, primarily driven by a rebound in energy prices. The Federal Reserve may need more time to assess the situation before making further decisions on interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact global financial markets in the second half of the year [1][19]. Inflation Data Summary - The June CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, compared to a previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.6%. The month-on-month increase is 0.3%, up from 0.1% previously [2][3]. - Core CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% previously, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5][15]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI increased to 3.17% year-on-year, up from 3.03%, indicating a rise in inflation breadth and stickiness [5][6]. Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rebounding significantly. The impact of retail gasoline prices, which typically lag behind crude oil price fluctuations, is expected to continue into July [3][5]. - Food prices remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, driven by a rise in household food prices [5]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with various categories such as furniture and appliances showing significant increases. However, prices for clothing and vehicles remain below trend lines [10][11]. - Core services saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with super core services (excluding housing) also showing a rebound, indicating some recovery in demand [15][16]. Impact of Tariffs - The article highlights that tariffs are beginning to show an impact on inflation, but the effect is currently moderate. The expected overall impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to be around 80 basis points [17][18]. - Companies are employing various strategies to mitigate tariff costs, including price adjustments, renegotiating with suppliers, and diversifying supply chains [14][18]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the moderate inflation impact and the weakening job market before making decisions on interest rate cuts. The consensus is leaning towards a potential rate cut in the fourth quarter of the year [17][20]. - Recent comments from key Fed officials suggest a more dovish stance, indicating that even if inflation rises due to tariffs, it may not delay rate cuts [20]. Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market has shown mixed performance, with technology stocks benefiting from certain market expectations, while financial stocks have faced adjustments due to disappointing earnings reports [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with current trading around the support levels established previously [1][4] - COMEX gold prices have declined to $3371.3 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.77%, while domestic SHFE gold prices are reported at 778.08 yuan per gram, down 0.78% [3] - The latest PMI data shows a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5, below expectations, while the services PMI is at 55.2, indicating a reliance on the service sector for economic growth [3] Group 2 - The weekly chart suggests that gold prices are expected to remain within the range of $3000 to $3500 for the second half of the year, with potential upward movement anticipated next year [4] - Short-term trading strategies should focus on the support and resistance levels, with key support identified at $3350 or $3335 and resistance at $3382 or $3393 [5]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently under pressure, trading around $3368, following a decline influenced by optimistic global trade sentiment and strong economic data [1] - On July 24, gold prices fell approximately 0.55%, closing at $3368.35 per ounce, as market optimism regarding trade agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The unexpected improvement in US labor market data has strengthened the US dollar and Treasury yields, further exerting downward pressure on gold prices [1] - President Trump’s rare visit to the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, despite his assurance that he would not dismiss Chairman Powell [1] - The market anticipates that the Fed will maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% during the upcoming meeting, although expectations for a rate cut in September remain [1] Economic Data - The latest data from the US Labor Department shows that initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest level in three months, indicating a solid labor market despite a slowdown in hiring [3] - The S&P Global Composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July, with the services PMI significantly increasing to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic activity [3] - The strengthening of the dollar and rising Treasury yields have diminished gold's investment appeal, as gold typically performs poorly in high-interest-rate environments [3] - Approximately 40% of service providers and nearly half of manufacturers attribute price increases to tariff policies, suggesting rising inflationary pressures [3] - There are warnings that consumer price inflation may exceed the Fed's 2% target in the coming months, further reducing expectations for a rate cut [3] Global Trade Situation - Signs of easing global trade tensions have contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices, with the US and Japan reaching a trade agreement that lowers auto import tariffs to 15% [4] - Positive developments in US-EU trade negotiations are also noted, with expectations of a potential agreement that includes a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [4] - The easing of trade tensions has led investors to favor higher-risk assets, such as equities, over traditional safe-haven assets like gold [4] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that discussions regarding extending trade agreement negotiations with China are set to take place next week, further boosting market confidence [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The combination of strong US economic data and improved trade sentiment may suppress gold prices in the short term, but caution remains as the Trump administration's tariff deadlines approach [5] - Market participants are advised to monitor upcoming employment data and the Federal Reserve's decisions, as well as developments related to Trump and geopolitical situations [5]

Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement to reduce auto import tariffs to 15% and exempt certain goods from punitive tariffs. Additionally, positive progress in U.S.-EU trade talks is expected to lead to a deal with a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [3] - Strong economic data has boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000, the lowest in three months, and the composite PMI and services PMI both rising in July, indicating accelerated economic activity. This has led to a stronger dollar index (up 0.3%) and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.408%, reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3] - President Trump's rare visit to the Federal Reserve raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, which could provide medium to long-term support for gold prices. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September [4] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. June durable goods orders, which is an important indicator of manufacturing activity and economic health, likely to impact gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weakening trend after forming three consecutive bullish candles, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed. The price has broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [5] - Key support levels to monitor include 3339, the lower boundary of the current upward channel, and 3324, a trendline support formed by previous lows. Resistance is significantly higher at around 3450, making a rebound to this level unlikely in the short term [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a series of bearish candles, with a slight recovery after hitting 3351. Confirmation of the 3351 low is crucial; if the price rebounds above this level, resistance can be identified at 3393/3395 and 3402/3406. A drop below 3351 would lead to a focus on the daily support levels mentioned [6] - The one-hour chart suggests that gold may be in a corrective phase, with potential for a rebound from the recent low at 3351. The structure indicates that if the price breaks above key resistance levels, it could signal a shift in trend direction [7]

Core Insights - The latest PMI data indicates a strong start for the U.S. economy in Q3, but there are significant uncertainties regarding the sustainability of this growth [1] Economic Growth - The current economic growth is heavily reliant on the services sector, while the manufacturing sector has experienced its first deterioration of the year [1] - The decline in manufacturing is partly attributed to the fading effects of short-term purchases driven by tariff expectations [1] Business Confidence - Business confidence in both manufacturing and services has decreased, reaching one of the lowest levels in two and a half years [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflationary pressures are rising, with companies attributing cost and price increases to tariffs [1] - The price increase for goods and services in July was one of the largest in the past three years, suggesting that consumer price inflation may exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Airlines reported a second-quarter revenue of $7.24 billion, slightly below the expected $7.3 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.43, lower than the anticipated $0.53. The company expects economic turmoil to consume up to $1 billion of its annual pre-tax profit, leading to a significant reduction in its 2025 shareholder return forecast [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s second-quarter revenue was $7.24 billion, slightly below the expected $7.3 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.43, lower than the analyst expectation of $0.53 [1] - Southwest Airlines anticipates a pre-tax profit of $600 million to $800 million for 2025, down from an earlier estimate of $1.7 billion [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Competition - Southwest Airlines provided a more cautious outlook compared to larger competitors like United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, which reported a recovery in travel demand [2] - Factors such as frequent tariff policies, inflation pressures, and operational chaos at some hub airports have negatively impacted consumer confidence and demand [2] - Delta Airlines noted improvements in corporate travel demand, while United Airlines indicated that demand recovery could lead to exceeding its 2025 profit targets [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing a significant transformation plan, moving away from its long-standing "one-size-fits-all" business model [2] - Southwest Airlines plans to introduce more spacious premium seating, designated seating services, and new boarding processes starting next year [2] - The company has begun charging for checked baggage since May, with the initiative exceeding expectations without negatively impacting flight operations [3] Group 4: Revenue Projections - Southwest Airlines expects a unit revenue growth range of -2% to 2% for the third quarter, compared to analysts' previous expectation of a 1.7% increase [4] - The company aims to achieve $1.8 billion in pre-tax profit by 2025 and $4.3 billion by 2026 through cost reductions and increased revenue from new fare packages and service fees [3] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - The board of Southwest Airlines has approved a $2 billion stock buyback plan, expected to be completed within two years [5]