零和博弈

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犬儒主义者很难成功,只因陷入了零和思维
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-19 00:55
犬儒主义认为人类本质上是自私的,人与人之间的互动本质上是一场残酷的、达尔文式的生存斗争,成功之路可能需要你越过或踩在别人身 上。这种思维不仅会降低团队的士气、心理安全感和忠诚度,也会直接阻碍个人的成长。但好消息是,犬儒主义并非不可改变。 五百年前,尼科洛·马基雅维利在《君主论》中为力图扩张势力的统治者们出谋划策。他写道:"君主应该表现得虔诚、忠诚、仁慈、真诚、有信仰,并且 最好是这样。但若有必要,他也应该准备好采取相反的行动。" 换句话说,不要过分坚持你的价值观,因为其他人可能并不会这么做。 几个世纪后,这段话依然完美地概括了一种犬儒主义的世界观。犬儒主义认为人类本质上是自私的。这也意味着人与人之间的互动本质上是一场残酷的、 达尔文式的生存斗争,成功之路可能需要你越过或踩在别人身上。 简单来说,犬儒主义者打错了牌。成功并非一场零和博弈,人们通常是通过建立信任和联系来获胜的。即使有人想方设法挤到顶端,他们的团队往往也要 付出代价。心理学家最近分析了NBA球员推文中的自恋程度,发现自恋程度更高的球队赢得的比赛更少。为什么?要在最高水平上竞技,队友们首先必 须停止相互较量。如果他们霸占球权,自恋的球员会让他们的队伍 ...
中美经贸磋商机制首次会议为全球经济注入确定性|专家热评
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-13 06:53
何立峰副总理强调"贸易战没有赢家",并提出中美双方要"进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用,不断 增进共识、减少误解、加强合作"。 作为发展阶段、经济制度不同的两个大国,中美双方在经贸合作中出现分歧和摩擦是正常的。然而,国 际贸易不可忽视的本质是互利共赢。在全球产业链分工日益细化的今天,世界经济体系高度相互嵌套, 一荣俱荣,这种基于市场选择的自然合作是全球化资源配置的必然结果。近年来,随着美方当局违背经 济规律,倒行逆施单边主义与保护主义,全球政治、经济、贸易局势呈现出显著地恶化趋势。这种将经 贸问题政治化、安全化的做法,不仅撕裂了全球供应链的完整脉络,更在根本上动摇了多边贸易体系的 根基。历史与现实反复印证,贸易战没有赢家,霸凌打压只会造成多败皆伤的困境。当保护主义阴云笼 罩全球经济之际,理性回归的呼声正逐渐汇聚成强大的力量——发展中国家联合捍卫公平贸易原则,跨 国资本用投资选择表达对开放市场的信心,美国国内工商界和农业州也持续发出反制关税的抗议。来自 各方的呼吁清晰表明,世界经济的复苏需要拆除人为藩篱,全球秩序的重构亟须重返合作轨道。 伦敦会议的成果是中美双方正视经贸互利共赢本质,尝试回归经济理性的重要探索。 ...
魏建国:中国单边开放是世界近代史的奇迹一一在郑永年新作《论单边开放》国内首发式上讲话
Feng Huang Wang Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 09:41
Core Viewpoint - China's unilateral opening is a remarkable achievement in modern history, representing a creative breakthrough in the logic and rules of globalization [1][2]. Group 1: China's Unilateral Opening - China's unilateral opening breaks the traditional "reciprocal opening" principle of Western-led globalization, showcasing a proactive approach to lowering tariffs from an average of 15.3% to 7.4% since joining the WTO [1]. - By the end of 2023, China has attracted a total foreign investment of $3.3 trillion, with 660,000 foreign enterprises operating in the country, maintaining its position as the top destination for foreign investment among developing countries for 30 consecutive years [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Decision - The decision for unilateral opening was made during a time of significant challenges, including a weak industrial base and low technological levels, reflecting the courage and wisdom of the Chinese government [2]. - This approach is not a passive response to external pressures but a strategic decision based on a deep understanding of international economic dynamics and domestic development needs [2]. Group 3: Continuation of Traditional Open Ideals - China's unilateral opening is an extension and elevation of its traditional open mindset, which has been evident throughout history, from the Silk Road to Zheng He's voyages [3]. - This modern unilateral opening embodies the spirit of openness and inclusivity, linking China's development closely with global progress and challenging traditional protectionist barriers [3]. Group 4: New Model for Global Governance - China's unilateral opening offers a new model for global governance by moving away from "zero-sum" thinking, demonstrating that market openness can lead to "incremental win-win" outcomes [4]. - Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP reflect China's commitment to regional cooperation and participation in global governance, contributing to the UN's 2035 global development agenda [4]. Group 5: Future Directions of Unilateral Opening - Future developments in China's unilateral opening will transition from "factor flow" to "rule-leading," focusing on institutional openness and establishing standards in emerging fields like digital economy and green trade [5]. - The approach will evolve from "economic and trade openness" to "civilizational dialogue," enhancing cultural exchanges and soft power to counter narratives of "China threat" [5]. - China's unilateral opening will shift from merely adopting international rules to contributing Chinese solutions, promoting a more inclusive and equitable global governance framework [5]. Group 6: Conclusion - The essence of unilateral opening is rooted in self-confidence regarding its development path and a belief in human progress, aiming to attract more entrepreneurs, scholars, and media to engage in this significant topic [6].
确保中美经贸关系大船行稳致远
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-09 21:52
此次中美元首通话,是继两国日内瓦经贸会谈后,双方从最高层级为弥合分歧、解决问题所做的又一次 重要努力。根据美方提议,两国经贸牵头人此前在日内瓦举行会谈,迈出了通过对话协商解决经贸问题 的重要一步,其成果受到两国各界和国际社会普遍欢迎,并为全球市场带来显著积极预期,再次证明对 话和合作是唯一正确的选择。 之后,中方始终秉持言必行、行必果的负责任态度,严肃认真执行了日内瓦会谈达成的协议。然而,美 方后续行为却与对话合作精神背道而驰,接连出台针对中国的歧视性政策,包括发布人工智能(AI) 芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售等举措。这些行径不仅违背日内瓦共识,损害中方正当 权益,更构成对双边关系发展的干扰甚至破坏。 中方通过对话协商解决经贸分歧的诚意是坚定的,同时坚守维护国家核心利益的原则立场也是明确的。 既然双方达成共识,就应当共同遵守。美方不能片面强调中方承诺而忽视自身义务,应当实事求是看待 取得的进展,撤销对中国实施的消极举措,与中方相向而行,为中美关系重返正轨创造必要条件。 中美关系稳定发展既关乎两国人民,也关乎人类前途命运。在当前重要关键节点,中美元首举行通话, 有助于双方增进共识、减少误解、加强合 ...
高考成绩和主权货币
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-09 14:26
今年,全国有1335万考生同时走进高考考场,争夺宝贵的高等教育资源。针对这一极度稀缺的资源,不同国家根据其社会共识建立了不同的分配机制。从 经济学的逻辑看,大体上分为两种: 一种是以"高考币"定价的高等教育体系,其特征是国家组织统一的标准化考试,考试成绩具备一定的主权货币的属性;另一种则不组织此类考试,信用主 体较为分散,主要依靠市场机制完成分配,姑且称之为以法币定价的高等教育体系。 从这一理论框架出发,本文试图分析这两种分配机制各自的利弊,挂一漏万,欢迎讨论和补充。 本文逻辑: 纵观历史上各种稀缺资源的分配机制,高考制度无疑是其中最平等的,这种平等体现在极致的机会平等,"只看分数"最大程度上避免了财富和权力的干 预,而这两者在其他稀缺资源的分配上往往是无孔不入,且起决定性作用的。 "小镇做题家"进入社会之后的无力感正由此而来,但做题家的身份最起码保证了他们不用赤身面对金钱和权力的倾轧。 一、"高考币"定价的高等教育体系 公平,公平,还是公平 二、法币定价的高等教育体系 全球"消费者"和顶级"供应商" 三、"高考币"定价,要公平还是要效率? 基础教育:内卷、双减、零和博弈、成本、价值观 高等教育:三方博弈、论 ...
美国的真实目的,中方早已识破,拿不到稀土后,特朗普彻底急了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-08 13:52
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in US-China economic relations are exacerbated by the US's frequent provocations, particularly regarding the rare earth supply chain, which China has recognized and is strategically responding to [1][4][9]. Group 1: US-China Economic Talks - The high-level economic talks in Geneva resulted in a joint statement, with China demonstrating goodwill by suspending certain tariffs and non-tariff measures against the US [1][3]. - In contrast, the US quickly issued guidelines for AI chip export controls and cut off sales of semiconductor design software to China, undermining the outcomes of the Geneva talks [3][6]. Group 2: Rare Earth Supply Chain - China controls over 90% of the global rare earth magnet production and has implemented export restrictions, impacting not only the US but also other countries [4][7]. - The US has expressed concerns over China's rare earth export policies while ignoring the fact that these restrictions were not specifically targeting the US [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Dilemmas - The US faces a strategic dilemma as its automotive industry warns of production disruptions due to potential rare earth supply shortages, while its policies towards China appear chaotic and ineffective [6][9]. - There is a growing recognition that the US underestimates China's bargaining power and resolve to exit negotiations, which could lead to broader economic implications [6][9]. Group 4: Negotiation Dynamics - The negotiation dynamics reveal a fundamental conflict in logic, with China advocating for mutual respect and equal consultation, while the US employs a zero-sum game mentality [7][9]. - The US's strategy of "talking while fighting" has not succeeded in forcing concessions from China and has instead increased uncertainty in global supply chains [9].
中国反制后,3名美上将罕见承认美国已受阻,美国局势还在恶化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-31 11:06
Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Military Dynamics - The U.S. military leadership acknowledges that U.S. global strategy is significantly hindered by China's counteractions, indicating a shift in the balance of power [1][11] - The U.S. has implemented strict export controls on high-end chips to China, aiming to isolate China's high-tech industry and prevent its self-sufficiency in this critical sector [3][4] - China has responded to U.S. tariffs with equivalent countermeasures, leading to increased inflation in the U.S. due to reliance on Chinese low-end products [3][6] Group 2: Resource Dependency and Military Production - The U.S. military's dependency on Chinese rare earth elements is highlighted, with over 80% of its military supply chain reliant on these materials, which are crucial for advanced weaponry [6][9] - The U.S. military's production capabilities are under threat due to potential restrictions on rare earth exports from China, which could lead to material shortages and production halts [6][10] - The U.S. has proposed unrealistic solutions to its rare earth challenges, such as acquiring territories for resource access, which are impractical and violate international law [6][10] Group 3: Technological and Industrial Competitiveness - China's shipbuilding capacity is reported to be 200 times greater than that of the U.S., showcasing a significant gap in military production capabilities [7][9] - The U.S. Navy's shipbuilding projects are lagging, with significant delays in the construction of new vessels compared to China's rapid production timelines [7][9] - The U.S. military leadership expresses deep concern over China's advancements in both traditional and emerging military capabilities, indicating a loss of competitive edge [9][10] Group 4: Strategic Misjudgments and Future Directions - The U.S. has historically underestimated China's potential and resilience, leading to misguided policies that have exacerbated its current strategic challenges [10][11] - The U.S. military's resource allocation issues and inefficient budget usage contribute to its declining military effectiveness [10][11] - A call for the U.S. to abandon its hegemonic mindset and seek cooperative relations with China is emphasized as a necessary step for future stability [11]
德国总理:若谈不拢,将反击!欧洲央行:美元主导地位正变得不确定
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-27 02:03
此外默茨表示,美国科技公司在欧盟享有有利的税收环境,但这种情况不一定会持续下去,欧盟不希望与美国陷入关税战升级的情况,欧美双方需共同解决 经贸冲突。 德国总理默茨。图片来源:视觉中国 每经编辑|毕陆名 据央视新闻27日报道,当地时间26日,德国总理默茨表示,德国和其他欧盟国家不希望关税争端升级。从德国的角度看,加征关税会损害德国的利益,如果 欧美谈判无法达成一致,德国没有选择,德国将会对美国关税政策进行反击。 现在的欧美谈判正在努力避免局势升级,德国也希望避免关税战这种情况的出现。默茨还称,德国需要为欧盟与美国谈判的失败以及其他任何情况做好准 备。 据新华社26日报道,美国总统特朗普25日说,在与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话后,他同意将对欧盟征收50%关税的起征时间从6月1日延至7月9日。 特朗普当天在新泽西州莫里斯顿登上总统专机前告诉媒体记者,冯德莱恩和他通了电话,希望推迟对欧盟征收50%关税的起征时间,以"认真推进"与美方的 谈判。据美国有线电视新闻网等媒体报道,特朗普对记者说,冯德莱恩在通话中告诉他:"我们将迅速聚在一起,看看是否能解决问题。"他在与冯德莱恩进 行"非常愉快的通话"后作出延期决定。 冯德 ...
中国打出“关键牌”!特朗普的让步前所未有,全世界将铭记这一天
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 03:13
据国际在线消息,近日,中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行。5月12日,双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共 识,同意于5月14日前采取有关举措。美东时间5月12日,美方发布行政令,宣布自美东时间5月14日0时01分起调整对华加征关税措施。本次中美大幅降低双 边关税水平,符合两国生产者和消费者的期待,有利于中美两国经贸往来,有利于全球经济。 美国制造业(资料图) 美国多个行业代表和经济专家指出,关税政策带来的伤害或已铸成,经济冲击可能仍难避免。据美国有线电视新闻网报道,曾在特朗普第一个总统任期内担 任白宫国家经济委员会主任的加里·科恩表示,美国目前关税政策的影响将在5月底开始在全国范围内显现,届时,关税政策将对低收入美国人产生更大的影 响,社会经济背景较低的人,将会把100%的薪水用于购买商品。 美联储在为期两天的货币政策例会后发表声明称,尽管净出口波动影响了数据,最近的指标表明美国经济活动继续稳步扩张。失业率稳定在低位,劳动力市 场状况保持稳健,通胀率仍然略高。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济前景不确定性进一步加剧。美联储密切关注其双重使命面 临的风险,并 ...
美参议员强调:中美贸易不是零和博弈
news flash· 2025-05-19 08:54
金十数据5月19日讯,当地时间5月18日,美国共和党籍参议员兰德·保罗在接受美国广播公司《本周》 栏目采访时指出,特朗普政府过于夸大贸易逆差,可这其中存在一个经济学谬误,即认为贸易逆差真有 什么实际意义。兰德·保罗表示,数十年来美国一直对华贸易逆差,可两个国家却都越来越富有。市场 的作用就在于压低价格、提升效率,只要是自愿交易,就必然对双方有利,否则交易根本不会发生—— 这根本不是什么国家间的零和博弈。 (CCTV国际时讯) 美参议员强调:中美贸易不是零和博弈 ...