Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the prices of important production materials in circulation for late January, covering nine categories and 50 products [1] - The expected SPGI services PMI for January is 51.5, slightly down from the previous value of 52.0, while the composite PMI is expected to be 51.2, down from 51.3 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. EIA will announce the crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 30, with the previous value showing a decrease of 2.295 million barrels [2] - A continued decline in crude oil inventory is anticipated to support the rise in crude oil and related commodity futures [2] Group 3 - The European Central Bank is set to announce its interest rate decision, with expectations that the main refinancing rate will remain unchanged at 2.15% [3] - The deposit facility rate and marginal lending rate are also expected to remain at 2% and 2.4%, respectively [3] Group 4 - The U.S. Department of Labor will release initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31, with expectations of 212,000 claims, up from the previous 209,000 [4] - A slight increase in jobless claims may support the rise in prices for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures [4] Group 5 - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for February is expected to be 55, down from the previous value of 56.4 [5] - A lower than expected consumer sentiment index may suppress the rise in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while supporting gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures [5] Group 6 - The People's Bank of China will announce the foreign exchange and gold reserves for January, with the foreign exchange reserves reported at $3,357.87 billion and gold reserves at 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising concerns over the security and credibility of gold reserves held by countries, particularly Germany, in the context of the U.S. dollar's dominance and the potential risks associated with it [1][4][14]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Trust Issues - Gold prices have surpassed $5000, reflecting a shift in perception regarding wealth and financial security, particularly in Europe [1]. - Germany's demand to repatriate its gold reserves is driven not by financial need but by fears that their gold may have physically disappeared or been misappropriated [3][6]. - The U.S. delayed the repatriation of Germany's gold for seven years, raising suspicions about the integrity of the gold reserves [4][6]. Group 2: Political and Financial Implications - The discovery that the serial numbers of the gold bars returned to Germany did not match the original records has led to allegations of misappropriation by the U.S. [4][6]. - The urgency expressed by German officials for the return of their gold indicates a looming crisis and a lack of confidence in the U.S. financial system [7][16]. - European pension funds, traditionally conservative investors, have begun to sell off U.S. Treasury bonds, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment and trust in U.S. financial stability [9][10]. Group 3: Changing Dynamics in Global Finance - The total value of global central bank gold reserves is projected to surpass that of U.S. Treasury holdings by the end of 2025, indicating a fundamental shift in asset preference [13]. - The Bretton Woods system, which relied on the dollar's backing by gold, is being questioned as countries increasingly favor gold over paper assets [14]. - The internal conflict within European leadership regarding trust in the U.S. reflects deep-seated anxieties about financial security and geopolitical stability [16].

Core Insights - Uzbekistan's international reserves reached a record high of $66.31 billion as of January 1, 2026, marking a 61% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: International Reserves - The total international reserves of Uzbekistan increased to $66.31 billion, representing a 61% growth compared to the previous year [1] - The central bank's gold reserves have set a new record for the sixth consecutive month, valued at $55.09 billion, with gold holdings rising to 12.6 million troy ounces (approximately 391.9 tons) [1] Group 2: Foreign Currency Reserves - The total foreign exchange reserves amounted to $10.64 billion, which includes $1.48 billion held in foreign central banks and the International Monetary Fund, as well as $7.6 billion in accounts with other overseas credit institutions [1] - The central bank's holdings of foreign currency securities slightly increased to $1.53 billion, although its share in the total international reserves decreased to 2.31% [1]

世界 黄金协会在《全球黄金需求趋势2025年四季度及全年报告》中提到，巴西中央 银行于2025年恢复 购金，上一次购金还是在2021年。该行在9月至11月期间增持43吨，使其黄金储备增至172吨。尽管黄金 储备显著增加，但黄金在其总外汇储备中的占比仍仅为7%。 ...

| | | 黄金股全线高开，截至发稿，赤峰黄金（600988）(06693)涨6.2%，报49港元；山东黄金（600547） (01787)涨4.49%，报53.5港元；招金矿业(01818)涨3.04%，报42港元；紫金黄金国际(02259)涨1.9%，报 258港元。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普表示，一支庞大的舰队正前往伊朗，已准备好迅速履行其使命。希望伊朗能 够迅速坐到谈判桌前。伊朗外长回应美方威胁称，伊朗武装力量高度戒备。此外，匈牙利可能考虑提高 央行储备中黄金的占比，波兰央行已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。 值得注意的是，1月29日，现货黄金首次突破5500美元/盎司大关，再创历史新高。大摩发布研报称，波 兰央行正转向以绝对吨位数作为黄金储备目标，而非占总储备比例，显示其对价格敏感度降低。该行认 为黄金涨势尚未结束，强调对2026年下半年的牛市情境目标为每盎司5700美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tether has emerged as a significant player in the gold market, holding approximately 140 tons of gold valued at around $24 billion, making it one of the largest gold holders globally, second only to central banks, ETFs, and large commercial banks [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Accumulation Strategy - Tether is aggressively accumulating gold at a rate of about 1 to 2 tons per week and plans to continue this purchasing pace for at least the next few months [7][15]. - In the last quarter, Tether purchased an additional 27 tons of gold for its gold-backed stablecoin, which has appreciated by at least $700 million this year [5][4]. - The company acquired over 70 tons of gold last year, surpassing nearly all single central bank purchases, with only Poland's 102 tons being higher [8]. Group 2: Market Impact and Demand - Tether's role as a significant new buyer is expected to sustain gold demand, contributing to a 65% increase in gold prices last year [9]. - The price of gold has surged from $3,858 per ounce in September last year to over $5,200, leading to a value increase of Tether's gold holdings by over $5 billion [4][6]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Tether aims to compete directly with traditional financial institutions like JPMorgan and HSBC in the gold trading business [3][15]. - The company has hired two senior gold traders from HSBC to enhance its market activities [16]. Group 4: Gold as a Reserve Asset - Tether views gold as a safer asset than any national currency, emphasizing its liquidity and status as a non-debt asset [21][22]. - The company has also invested in gold royalty companies, acquiring shares in several mid-sized Canadian listed firms [24]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Tether's gold-backed token, Tether Gold (XAUT), is projected to reach a market circulation of $5 billion to $10 billion by the end of the year [27]. - The company is exploring ways to improve the efficiency of its gold purchasing process, as acquiring approximately $1 billion worth of physical gold monthly presents logistical challenges [18][20].

黄金股上涨，白银有色（维权）7连板，四川黄金、中国黄金4连板，招金黄金、湖南黄金3连板，晓程科技、招金黄 金、四川黄金、湖南黄金、西部黄金、豫光金铅、铜陵有色、赤峰黄金、中金黄金、山东黄金、恒邦股份、盛达资 源、莱百股份创历史新高。 消息面上，受美国政策不确定性上升及日元强势反弹影响，隔夜美元指数暴跌，一度跌至95.51，创2022年2月以来新 低。美元下跌进一步刺激金价走强。纽约期金突破5300美元/盎司，日内涨3.53%；现货黄金向上触及5270美元/盎司， 日内涨近2%。 国金证券认为，对于黄金而言，从全球储备资产来看，虽然黄金现在超过了美债，但是相比于以美元计价的资产占比 还有较大提升空间：官方储备中，美元超过黄金只是一个阶段性历史事件，开始于1990年美国绝对领导地位强化时 期；当下，黄金储备上升并非是美元信用崩溃，而是全球认为美元的风险需要对冲。同样的，更广义的实物资产同样 具备上述意义。值得关注的是：以各自商品计价的商品股来看，黄金股仍然存在明显的低估，随着业绩兑现的逐步回 归，黄金股表现的收敛值得期待。 对于黄金，兴业证券认为，若将黄金的逻辑单一聚焦于美国，眼下或有波动的"噪音"和畏高的情绪； ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that German lawmaker Strack-Zimmermann is urging the German federal government to repatriate its gold reserves stored in the United States due to increasing global uncertainties and unpredictable U.S. policies [1] - Germany has over 1,200 tons of gold reserves stored at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, which is valued at over 100 billion euros at current prices [1] - Approximately 37% of Germany's gold reserves are currently held in New York, with about half of the total reserves located in Frankfurt and 13% in London [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of rising gold prices amidst a declining trust in the US dollar, highlighting the implications for the US economy and global financial stability. Group 1: Gold and US Dollar Dynamics - The US holds the largest gold reserves globally, approximately 8,133 tons, which could translate into significant wealth if gold prices rise [2] - The notion of selling gold to pay off the US national debt of $35 trillion is criticized, as it would signal a loss of confidence in the dollar, potentially leading to a rapid sell-off of dollar assets globally [4] - Central banks are reportedly reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds while increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift in asset allocation amid concerns over the dollar's credibility [6] Group 2: Economic Pressures and Interest Payments - The interest payments on US debt are projected to exceed $1.1 trillion in the fiscal year 2025, creating significant financial pressure on the US government [8] - The rising gold prices are seen as a reflection of the weakening dollar, creating a cycle where increasing gold values lead to further distrust in the dollar, necessitating more debt issuance [10] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a growing sentiment of distrust towards the dollar, with individuals preferring to hold physical gold rather than relying solely on dollar assets [8] - The article notes a significant premium on physical gold, indicating a shift in investor behavior towards tangible assets [12] - The potential for the US to re-link gold to the dollar or intervene in gold prices raises concerns about market stability and investor confidence [13]

Core Insights - Russia's financial situation is deteriorating, with its available "safety cushion" becoming increasingly thin, particularly in terms of gold reserves [1][3] - The country has sold nearly 400 tons of gold from its national welfare fund over the past three years, indicating a reliance on past accumulations to stabilize current finances [1][3] - The gold is not being used for investment or structural adjustments but is directly funding the budget and covering rigid national expenditures [3][5] Financial Condition - By early this year, the gold reserves in the national welfare fund had significantly decreased to about 30% of their pre-conflict levels, indicating a heavy reliance on these reserves to meet increased financial obligations [3][5] - The welfare fund, originally designed for "emergency situations," is now tasked with covering not only regular welfare expenditures but also substantial costs related to military conflicts, such as compensation for casualties and support for military families [3][5] Economic Dynamics - The expenditures funded by gold sales do not generate long-term returns and only maintain the status quo, leading to a weakening of the financial model as gold reserves are depleted [5][7] - Despite the economic pressure, the Russian economy has not collapsed, partly due to domestic investments stimulated by capital restrictions and a wartime economic structure that has absorbed significant labor in sectors like military, energy, and transportation [5][7] Challenges Ahead - The internal economic cycle remains incomplete, as many essential technologies and materials still need to be imported, limiting the effectiveness of domestic production [7][9] - The shift in transaction methods, with a preference for gold and energy over the ruble, has accelerated the consumption of gold reserves, making it a critical payment tool for military procurement and essential goods [7][9] Future Outlook - While Russia's gold reserves have not yet reached a critical level, the ongoing reliance on these reserves for funding indicates a persistent financial pressure that could lead to challenges in the future [9] - The sustainability of this financial model is in question, as continued high expenditure rates could outpace the ability to replenish reserves, leading to increased economic and social costs down the line [9]