执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 如何在定位和投资上做好一只"固收+" ——基金四季报详细拆解 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2026 年 02 月 05 日 分析师：林莎 执业证书编号：S0740525060004 Email：linsha@zts.com.cn 分析师：金晓溪 执业证书编号：S0740525070004 Email：jinxx@zts.com.cn —负债行为深度》2026-02-01 2、《债基和理财的 2025：负债行为 拥抱含权》2026-01-30 3、《追风不如乘风》2026-01-25 报告摘要 分析师：吕品 资金面逻辑：负债端驱动下的扩容新周期，"固收+"承接机构和居民流动性溢出。2025 年，"固收+"基金规模连续四个季度环比大幅增长，截至 2025 年四季度末，全市场"固 收+"基金规模创下历史新高。本轮扩容的核心驱动力源于负债端行为的变化：在存款 利率下行与纯债收益空间压缩的背景下，居民与机构的低风险资金开始寻求替代资 产。2025-2026 年的定存到期高峰，这为市场提供了充裕的流动性储备。即使仅有微 量资金进行风 ...

Market Overview - A total of 68 stocks hit the daily limit, while 20 stocks faced limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 77%. Notable stocks include Mingdiao Co. and Hangdian Co. with four consecutive limit ups, and Minbao Optoelectronics with three consecutive limit ups [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85% to reclaim the 4100-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%. The ChiNext Index, however, fell by 0.4% [1][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 633 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The coal, photovoltaic, real estate, and hydrogen energy sectors led the market gains, while AI applications, cloud computing, precious metals, and CPO concepts lagged behind [1][3] - The coal sector saw significant activity due to Indonesia's reduction in production quotas, which is expected to support domestic coal prices [8][16] - The hydrogen energy sector experienced a surge following favorable policies and increased focus on green hydrogen applications [7][19] Stock Analysis - The advancement rate for consecutive limit-up stocks dropped to 40%, with all stocks attempting to progress from four to five consecutive limit ups failing [3][4] - Stocks such as Mingdiao Co. and Hangdian Co. are highlighted for their strong performance in the home improvement and PCB sectors, respectively [4][30] - The AI application sector faced pressure, with many stocks experiencing declines of over 10% due to a broader market pullback in tech stocks [3][6] Real Estate Insights - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with significant increases in second-hand home transactions in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, indicating a potential rebound in the housing market [9][20] - Despite the positive trends, concerns remain regarding the overall health of the real estate industry, as evidenced by substantial losses reported by major companies like Vanke [9] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue experiencing volatility, with a divergence between traditional sectors like coal and real estate performing well, while tech-oriented sectors face challenges [10] - The Shanghai Composite Index's recovery above the 4100-point mark suggests potential for further gains, but the market will likely remain sensitive to external factors and sector rotations [10]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to surpass 4100 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.40% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 63.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Key Sectors Coal Sector - The coal sector experienced a surge, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit, including Shaanxi Black Cat and Yanzhou Coal Mining [3] - The increase in energy demand for heating due to severe weather conditions and government efforts to ensure stable energy supply contributed to this surge [3] Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector saw a significant rally, with stocks like JinkoSolar and Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit [4] - Reports indicated that Elon Musk's team visited several Chinese photovoltaic companies, which sparked interest in the sector [4] AI Industry - The AI industry faced a downturn, with hardware and application stocks declining, including companies like Yili Media and Tiandi Online [5] - The release of an AI legal plugin by Anthropic led to a sell-off in software companies, raising concerns about AI potentially replacing core software business models [5] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed active performance, with stocks such as Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development hitting the daily limit [6] - Research indicated that the focus for 2026 should be on policies related to land supply and housing inventory [6] Institutional Insights Consumption and Economic Outlook - Zheshang Securities emphasized that consumption will be the most important counter-cyclical variable in 2026, suggesting a need for a positive fiscal policy stance [7] - The report highlighted that the market should focus on risk appetite rather than interest rates for the stock market outlook [7] Geopolitical Concerns - Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates warned that the world is nearing a critical point of "capital war" due to escalating geopolitical tensions, asserting that gold remains the safest asset [8] - Despite recent volatility in precious metals, Dalio maintained that gold's status as a safe haven would not change over time [8] Commercial Aerospace Development - CITIC Securities noted that the global commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase focused on large-scale deployment and ecosystem building, with significant competition between the U.S. and China [8] - The report highlighted the shift from single technology breakthroughs to comprehensive competition in reusable rocket engineering and satellite manufacturing [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a downturn on February 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative and the ChiNext Index dropping over 2%. Despite this, the Huatai-PineBridge Low Volatility ETF (512890) rose by 0.87%, reaching a price of 1.160 yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.42% and a transaction volume of 415 million yuan, leading among similar ETFs [1][7]. ETF Performance - The Huatai-PineBridge Low Volatility ETF (512890) reported a price of 1.160 yuan, reflecting a 0.87% increase, with an indicative net asset value (IOPV) of 1.1601 yuan and a slight discount of -0.01% [2][8]. - The ETF's trading volume was 415 million yuan, with a 5-day price change of 0.69% [2][8]. Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of the Huatai-PineBridge Low Volatility ETF showed mostly positive performance during the morning session, with notable increases in Shanghai Bank (up 1.08%), Nanjing Bank (up 2.08%), and Ping An Bank (up 0.65%). However, COFCO Sugar fell by 1.61% [3][9]. Fund Inflows - The Huatai-PineBridge Low Volatility ETF has seen significant net inflows, with 670 million yuan over the last 5 trading days, 2.94 billion yuan over the last 20 days, and 4.68 billion yuan over the last 60 days. As of February 3, 2026, the ETF's latest circulation scale was 29.011 billion yuan [3][9]. Market Analysis - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the A-share market is expected to experience short-term consolidation, but medium-term support factors remain unchanged, indicating a slow bull market. They recommend focusing on four key areas: the AI industry chain and commercial aerospace, supply-demand supported non-ferrous metals, cyclical sectors like chemicals and home appliances, and high-dividend strategies based on quality cash flow [5][11]. - Pacific Securities emphasized the attractiveness of bank sector valuations, highlighting significant dividend yield advantages and strong demand for high-dividend asset allocation. They noted that state-owned banks and quality regional banks have advantages in capital, dividends, and regional economic resilience, supporting low-volatility dividend strategies [6][11].

板块题材上，煤炭开采加工、机场航运、光伏设备、房地产、天然气、港口航运、建筑材料、银行、氢能源、零售板块涨 幅居前；贵金属、AI应用、算力租赁、半导体、CPO概念股跌幅居前。盘面上，冬季保供需求加大，煤炭股集体大涨，兖矿能 源、陕西黑猫多股涨停。太空光伏方向反复活跃，双良节能、国晟科技2连板。房地产产业链表现积极，财信发展、荣安地产 收获涨停。此外，天然气、氢能源、零售等板块均有异动。另一方面，AI产业链走弱，硬件、应用方向齐齐走低，中际旭创、 新易盛盘初一度跌超10%。黄金股未能跟随国际金价反弹，四川黄金盘中逼近跌停。 三大指数早盘表现不一，截至午盘，沪指平收，深成指跌0.92%，创业板指跌1.74%，北证50指数跌1.19%，沪深京三市半 日成交额16297亿元，较上日放量127亿元。全市场超2900只个股下跌。 ...

2月4日，三大指数早盘集体收跌。截至午间收盘，沪指平盘报收，深证成指跌0.92%，创业板指跌 1.74%。沪深两市半日成交额1.62万亿，较上个交易日放量116亿。 值得注意的是，盘面上AI应用概念全线回调，值得买、开普云等多股跌超10%；游戏、腾讯概念股走 低，利通电子、引力传媒跌停；光模块、PCB、液冷等算力硬件概念全线走低；算力租赁、云服务、云 计算等国产算力概念集体下行，宏景科技等多股跌超10%；半导体、存储芯片、光刻机等国产硬科技概 念集体弱势。消息面上，AI明星公司Anthropic发布的一款AI法律插件，引发隔夜美股软件公司暴跌， 传导至一系列可能被AI取代的软件公司。 涨幅榜方面，太空光伏、钙钛矿电池概念持续走强，双良节能、亚玛顿等多股涨停；机场航运、酒店餐 饮、免税店、乳业等大消费概念拉升，中国东航、友好集团等涨停；煤炭、化工、天然气、电力等顺周 期概念全线走高，陕西黑猫、美锦能源等多股涨停；房地产概念反弹，财信发展、荣安地产等涨停；成 飞概念、大飞机、航空发动机概念走强，博云新材涨停；雄安概念持续强势，韩建河山等涨停；中字 头、银行、央企国资改革等概念集体护盘。 展望后市，华泰证券表示，节 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The nomination of hawkish Fed Chair Walsh is expected to restore the Fed's independence and support the dollar, leading to a rise in interest rates and a potential tightening of monetary policy[10] - The market anticipates a new round of tightening due to the Fed Chair nomination, with economic fundamentals showing signs of slowing down[2] - The 1Y Treasury yield decreased from 1.337% to 1.3%, while the 10Y Treasury yield fell from 1.847% to 1.811%[2] Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.76% from 3968.84 to 4117.95, while the ChiNext Index increased by 4.47% from 3203.17 to 3346.36[2] - The NASDAQ index showed a slight increase of 0.95%, moving from 23241.99 to 23461.82, but is expected to face valuation pressure in the short term[2] - The recommendation is to overweight financial stocks while underweighting consumer stocks and U.S. equities due to tightening expectations[3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Trends - Brent crude oil prices surged by 13.57%, from $57.42 to $65.21 per barrel, driven by geopolitical factors and Fed expectations[2] - The U.S. dollar index is on an upward trend, moving from 98.27 to 97.12, indicating a recovery in dollar strength[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate slightly decreased from 6.99 to 6.95, reflecting a slower appreciation of the yuan[2]

根据最新季报，创业板50ETF（159949）十大重仓股早盘表现分化。截止午盘，宁德时代跌1.04%，中际旭创跌1.06%，新 易盛跌4.13%，东方财富涨0.27%，阳光电源跌0.17%，胜宏科技跌1.85%，汇川技术跌0.24%，迈瑞医疗涨0.49%，天孚通信 涨9.14%，亿纬锂能跌0.54%。 消息面上，近日国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合印发《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》（发改价格〔2024〕114 号），首次就新型储能提出全国性容量电价机制。该政策将电网侧独立新型储能纳入容量电价补偿范围，收益模式由单一 电量交易转向"容量电价+现货套利"，预计2026-2027年电网侧储能装机需求将持续增长。容量电价机制明确后，项目内部 收益率（IRR）预计将从原先的6%-8%提升至12%-15%，有望加速储能项目投资落地。市场普遍认为，容量电价机制的实 施将有效激发电网侧独立储能项目的投资热情，从储能电池、系统集成到核心部件、运营服务等全产业链均有望迎来需求 释放。 此外，钠电池凭借其低温性能好、安全性高、成本潜力大等优势，近年来在储能、两轮车、启停电源等领域持续渗透。行 业分析预测，钠电池将在多个场景中对 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the construction materials sector is showing strong performance, with expectations for price increases in various categories such as waterproofing, coatings, and cement due to improving demand and economic conditions in 2026. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring post-Spring Festival demand recovery and price adjustments [4][5] - The cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable decline in demand, particularly in the housing market. However, mid-term prospects suggest that production capacity may decrease under policies limiting overproduction, potentially leading to improved profit margins [4][9] - The glass industry is facing ongoing demand pressures, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement. Supply-side adjustments are expected to keep prices low in the short term [5][16] - The fiber glass sector is experiencing a demand boost driven by the AI industry, with expectations for significant growth in both volume and price [5] - The consumer building materials sector is anticipated to see a bottoming out of profits, with strong price increase demands following years of competitive pricing [5] Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with December 2025 production at 144 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%. Demand is expected to weaken further due to seasonal factors and the upcoming Spring Festival [9] Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with high inventory levels among intermediaries and limited demand recovery. Recent supply-side adjustments have not alleviated the overall supply-demand imbalance, leading to expectations of continued low price fluctuations [16] Fiber Glass - The fiber glass sector is benefiting from demand related to the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price as the industry evolves [5] Consumer Building Materials - The sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with several categories like waterproofing and coatings announcing price increases, indicating a potential turnaround in 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment suggests a reduction in investment weight for small and growth stocks, advocating for a strategy of overweighting the CSI 300 while underweighting the CSI 1000 due to increasing market risks [3][8][10]. Regulatory Environment - In late January, regulatory authorities expressed a clear intention to cool down the market and reduce investor leverage through multiple measures, including selling broad-based ETFs, adjusting financing ratios, enhancing monitoring of individual stock speculation, and media communication [3][9]. - The significant selling of stock ETFs has led to a noticeable decline in market risk appetite [3][9]. Policy Outlook - As February approaches, a new round of policy negotiations is expected, with domestic policy focusing on the "Two Sessions" and potential increased support for emerging industries, which may help mitigate downward market pressure [9]. - External factors include the tightening monetary stance of the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a repricing of interest rate expectations and liquidity tightening, potentially impacting both U.S. and domestic equity markets [9]. Market Dynamics - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility, with a recommendation to lower risk exposure and avoid risk-sensitive small and growth stocks [4][10]. - Since the fourth quarter of last year, technology-driven growth stocks have consistently outperformed, but the rapid rise in valuations for small and growth stocks may have peaked, while value and large-cap stocks are now in an oversold state [4][9]. Commodity and Stock Interaction - Recent significant declines in commodities have triggered corrections in related cyclical stocks, leading to a substantial drop in the broader market; however, the risks are considered manageable [10]. - The effective transmission mechanism of "commodity-stock linkage" poses a risk of localized declines, particularly in resource-related cyclical sectors, rather than dragging down the entire market [10]. Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior - The prevalence of quantitative trading and leveraged funds in the market may amplify short-term volatility through algorithmic trading and leverage-induced sell-offs [5][10]. - Historical analysis of the pre-Spring Festival market suggests a higher probability of large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks, reinforcing the recommendation to reduce exposure to small and growth stocks in the current risk environment [5][10].