以下文章来源于金错刀 ，作者张一弛 金错刀 . 科技商业观察家。爆品战略提出者。 这是新消费智库第 2 6 4 7 期文章 新消费导读 "带病"上市的绿茶餐厅，也许最清楚自己病症。 作者 ：张一弛 编辑：竺天 审核： Single 来源：金错刀 4年尝试了5次，绿茶餐厅终于圆了自己的上市梦。 绿茶餐厅的老家杭州一直被调侃为美食荒漠，如果在社交平台 "求推荐好吃的杭州特色美食"，那么可能会得到如下答案： 巴比馒头 ，一家速食连锁包子铺。 这次绿茶餐厅费劲心力也要上市，堪称餐饮界最倔强IPO，也为杭州老家多加了张美食名片。 这几年，堪称是中国餐饮洗牌最快的年代，倒闭的、破产的、改命从头再来的餐厅比比皆是。 但绿茶餐厅却大张旗鼓的开店，2022-2024年绿茶餐厅分别开出47家、89家及120家新店，2024年几乎是平均三天开一家新店的速度在扩 张。 从杭州西湖畔到北京 SKP，从一线城市到小县城商业街，绿茶餐厅的扩张速度像极了瑞幸咖啡的"互联网式狂飙"。 只不过，如今的绿茶餐厅跟过去的风光却很难相提并论，不少人调侃绿茶是"带病上市"，食客们也总会反复思考两个相同的问题： 曾经排队 2小时的网红头牌，为何现在打不过 ...

有人说新消费是 "增长速度快"，但新能源车从5%到50%的渗透率跃升、宠物食品年均 30% 的增速，似乎又不止于单纯数字上的狂欢；又有人认为新消费是 "颜值经济"，可老铺黄金的传统纹样、泡泡玛特受到争议的IP形象，却在 "丑与美" 的争议中破圈而出。当传统消费逻辑在 "看不懂的市场" 前不再适用，我 们也需要重新审视，了解 "新消费" 这一标签背后，究竟藏着怎样的底层逻辑？ 为了解答这些问题，观察者网邀请到东吴证券首席分析师吴劲草，为我们带来对新消费的系统性阐述，以及在新消费场景中，对年轻人"情绪价值"的内涵分 析。 吴劲草 以下是相关内容： 我们希望能够给各位讲述关于新消费是什么的话题，而不是简单的说"新消费"这个词，目前甚至会有人说增长速度快就是新消费这样的观点，而其实对新消 费，我们之前也一直缺乏系统性的阐述。那么我们今天就来做一个系统性的阐述。 新消费的指标 首先，新消费是有指标的，新消费的客观指标有三个，第一个是行业渗透率，第二个是百度搜索指数的破圈，第三个是快速增长，至少是25%以上的增速。 新消费的主观要素中，第一个是可交易，体现为上市公司股票可交易或是二手产品可交易，另一个则是易造梗，也就是品 ...

A股昨天收盘卡在3384点，刚好顶在前期高点连线、近期上涨趋势线和3400点整数关口三重压力位上。 一、3400点攻坚战：技术面与资金面的双重博弈 从技术形态看，上证指数日线级别已经形成"老鸭头"雏形，昨天的收盘价刚好触碰到鸭嘴位置的压力线。这个位置有多关键？2024年四季度以来，3400点附 近堆积了超过2.5万亿的成交金额，大量套牢盘等着解套。 但好消息是，央行昨天开展了1万亿元的逆回购操作，创下单日投放新高，市场流动性充裕。北向资金也逆势加仓67.73亿元，其中中际旭创等科技龙头被大 举买入，这说明聪明资金对突破3400点是有期待的。 昨夜美股又跌了，但我觉得不用慌。外围市场就像坐过山车，短期颠簸不影响上证大方向——昨晚道琼斯虽然跌了0.25%，但纳指金龙指数却涨了0.54%， 中概股整体稳得住。而且德国DAX指数还创了新高，说明全球资金对权益资产的配置热情仍在。 超短线操作上，有个重要信号必须记住：如果今天突然拉出一根实体阳线，涨幅明显超过近三天最大阳线，尤其是成交量放大到1.5万亿以上， 这时候反而要警惕"加速赶顶"风险。这种情况就像跑步时突然冲刺，容易导致体力透支，历史上2024年12月和2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xipuni Precision Technology Co., Ltd., is pursuing an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage the current "new consumption" trend in the market, despite experiencing fluctuating performance in recent years [1][10]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the company from 2022 to 2024 was reported as 324 million RMB, 445 million RMB, and 457 million RMB, respectively, showing a gradual increase, but with a notable slowdown in growth for 2024 [2]. - Net profit figures for the same period were 24.54 million RMB, 52.10 million RMB, and 49.35 million RMB, indicating volatility in profitability [2]. Business Structure - The company's revenue is primarily derived from two segments: OBM (Original Brand Manufacturing) and ODM (Original Design Manufacturing), with OBM accounting for 80%-90% of sales [3]. - In 2024, OBM revenue was 338 million RMB, down 16.13% year-on-year, while ODM revenue surged to 119 million RMB, up 176.74% [3]. Product Sales - Traditional precious metal watches constituted the main revenue source, accounting for 89.4%, 90.4%, and 70.7% of total revenue in the fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [4][5]. - The decline in sales of traditional precious metal watches in 2024 was attributed to decreased consumer demand amid economic conditions and fluctuating commodity prices [4]. Market Trends - The gold watch market in China achieved a GMV of 28.1 billion RMB in 2023, representing 93.55% of the total precious metal watch market, with a projected CAGR of 9.58% from 2023 to 2028 [6]. - The company faces challenges from fluctuating gold prices, which significantly impact production costs and consumer purchasing behavior [7]. Competitive Landscape - Xipuni holds a leading position in the gold watch market with a 24.98% market share, but faces intense competition from both domestic brands and international luxury brands [8]. - The company has a high customer concentration, with sales to its top five clients accounting for over 87% of total revenue, which raises concerns about pricing power and revenue stability [9]. Future Outlook - The company plans to use IPO proceeds to enhance production capacity, strengthen R&D capabilities, and expand its sales network, although it faces liquidity challenges with significant inventory levels and limited cash reserves [9][10].

全球排队抢购，断货售罄，二手溢价20倍……潮玩IP Labubu正成为全球"超级IP"。透过这一火爆场景， 被誉为年轻人"塑料茅台"的潮玩赛道也受到越来越多投资者的关注。在此背景下，鹏华基金推出了 以"悦己·悦基"为内核，聚焦个体幸福新消费趋势的鹏华港股通消费主题ETF(基金简称：港股消费 50ETF，代码：159265)，于6月9日正式发行。 据浙商证券分析，25年至28年全球IP玩具年均增长率或达9.50%，高于总玩具市场平均增长率。弗若斯 特沙利文预计，中国IP玩具市场规模将从25年的578亿元增至28年911亿元，平均增速17.02%，高于全球 增速，市场份额占比预计由25年13.99%增至28年16.85%。 同时受益于盲盒天然的IP属性以及其主流用户群(90后与00后)在社媒的强大推介能力，盲盒市场十分擅 长打造爆款。2024年起，盲盒产品引发全球市场热烈反响。盲盒的主流消费群体集中(消费者中90后与 00后占比78%)且具有较高购买力，伴随2025年产品销售价格带的向上迁移趋势(百元以下低端市场萎缩 12%，300-500元轻奢盲盒占比提升至35%)，盲盒玩具预期增长空间广阔，增速可观。 鹏华港 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a slight decline, with major indices showing minor drops, indicating a period of adjustment and potential consolidation in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3382.11 points, down 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10185.34 points, down 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index at 2038.87 points, down 0.48% [1][2]. - Overall, more than 2900 stocks in the market declined, reflecting a bearish sentiment [2]. Sector Analysis - Key sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, financial technology, robotics, and Tesla-related stocks experienced pullbacks [4]. - Conversely, local stocks in Hainan saw a midday surge, while sectors related to computing power, AI applications, and servers showed strength [4]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in basic chemicals, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals, while outflows were noted in the automotive, non-bank financials, and textile sectors [6]. - Specific stocks like Baili Electric, Huamai Technology, and Jinlongyu saw net inflows of 9.08 billion, 5.44 billion, and 5.4 billion respectively [7]. - In contrast, stocks such as Sifang Precision, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Yuxin Technology faced net outflows of 4.41 billion, 4.23 billion, and 2.93 billion respectively [8]. Institutional Insights - Analysts from Shenzhen Dexun Securities believe that the A-share index has been consolidating for nearly nine months, and a breakout is only a matter of time, supported by policy measures [10]. - Guojin Securities suggests that with external news easing and an active tech sector, there is still room for rebound, although individual stock performance may vary [10].

1）港股消费：港股消费ETF（513230），打包电商+新消费，覆盖相对A股更为稀缺的新消费赛道； 2）港股科技：恒生科技指数ETF（513180），软硬科技兼备，囊括相对A股更为稀缺的科技龙头。 华鑫证券表示，新消费板块在扩内需政策的托底作用下，叠加消费偏好的快速迭代与技术创新的不断突破，需求侧正涌现出更多的结构性机会。尤其是在零 售渠道变革的背景下，新消费品牌通过差异化的产品定位和高效的供应链管理，具备更强的市场适应能力和增长潜力。例如，部分企业在低温新品、电商渠 道优化、特渠拓展等方面取得了积极进展，展现出良好的成长性。 硬科技与新消费共振，聚焦港股新CP（支持T+0）： （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 6月6日，港股震荡走低，恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至1%，恒生指数跌超0.5%，港股消费板块同样窄幅震荡，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）、港股消费ETF （513230）现均小幅微跌。 消息面上，2025年消费投资市场正掀起新浪潮。今年以来，港股与A股新消费板块集体狂飙，"消费投资的黄金年代"或已来临。中国Z世代（1995年-2009年 出生人群）的消费行为驱动消费市场发生结构性转变，推动新消费快速崛起。新消 ...

对话商社：新消费的黄金纪元：新场景+新客群+新产品+ 新渠道 20250605 摘要 新消费区别于传统消费，后者依赖经济增长和收入提升，前者基于"幸 福等于效用和欲望"理论，强调情绪价值、性价比出海及极致成本优势。 2025 年国投证券新消费 50 组合表现良好，验证了新消费投资潜力。 国投证券看好 2025 年新消费板块的持续增长，尽管存在波动，但税收 政策和内需增长驱动新兴企业发展，如老铺黄金、泡泡玛特等。基本面 良好，未来一到两年行情仍具持续性，但需警惕资金在新科技与新消费 间的切换。 新消费定价抓手在于场景、客群、产品和渠道的创新。2018-2020 年 一级市场资本注入宠物经济、美容护理和餐饮等领域，催生一批国产品 牌，商业模式逐渐成熟，竞争格局改善，为新消费公司提供了发展机遇。 当前新消费行情并非全新产品周期，而是渠道、场景或客群变化驱动， 呈现百花齐放态势。前期资本注入的种子经过培育，推动行业发展，行 情由实际业绩支撑，如泡泡玛特和老铺黄金，估值具备支撑。 Q&A 新消费的黄金纪元是什么意思？国投证券策略团队对新消费的认知是什么？ 新消费的黄金纪元指的是在当前经济环境下，新的消费模式和趋势正在迅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai, a benchmark in the Chinese stock market, has seen a shift in investor focus towards Pop Mart, known as "plastic Moutai," as fund managers reduce their holdings in Moutai and increase their investments in Pop Mart due to its significant stock price growth and appeal to younger consumers [1][3][11]. Group 1: Guizhou Moutai's Performance - Moutai's stock price was 2465.23 yuan in 2021, with a market capitalization of 3.1 trillion yuan, which remains unmatched [1]. - The stock price has shown a decline from 1524 yuan on January 2, 2025, to 1509.96 yuan on June 4, 2025, indicating a decrease of 1% [11]. - Moutai's revenue growth has slowed, with targets for 2025 set at only 9% growth, marking the first time in nine years that the annual growth target has been reduced to single digits [14]. Group 2: Pop Mart's Rise - Pop Mart's stock price increased from 9.8 HKD in October 2022 to 246 HKD by June 2025, representing a more than 20-fold increase [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 106.92%, and a net profit of 3.125 billion yuan, up 188.77% [12][13]. - The number of funds holding Pop Mart increased from 13 at the end of 2023 to 207 by the end of the first quarter of 2025, reflecting growing institutional interest [8]. Group 3: Fund Manager Behavior - Notable fund managers, including those from Southern Fund and Huatai PineBridge, have shifted their focus from Moutai to Pop Mart, with significant reductions in Moutai holdings [3][11]. - Fund managers are increasingly attracted to Pop Mart's innovative business model, which appeals to younger consumers seeking new experiences and social currency [11][12]. - The shift in investment strategy is linked to the changing consumption patterns of Generation Z, who favor novelty and emotional engagement over traditional brand loyalty [11][12]. Group 4: Market Trends and Challenges - The overall market for traditional consumer goods, including Moutai, is experiencing a slowdown, with many investors seeking opportunities in new consumption models [11]. - Pop Mart's membership repurchase rate has declined from 58% in 2019 to 49.4% in 2024, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability [9][12]. - Moutai's recent cross-industry investments, including in AI technology, indicate a strategic shift to adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [14][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in the A-share market's consumer sector, particularly in new consumption stocks, is driven by deeper underlying logic and changing consumer behavior [1][2][3] - The rise of new consumption is seen as a response to the complex global trade environment and pressure on exports, making domestic demand and consumption crucial for economic growth [2][3] - Policies like "trade-in for new" have effectively stimulated market vitality, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards quality and value rather than brand premium [3][4] Group 2 - Retail investors face challenges in the new consumption sector, as many are following trends without proper analysis, leading to significant losses [8] - The presence of pseudo-leaders in the market, which are stocks that merely ride on concepts without institutional backing, creates volatility and risks for retail investors [8][10] - Understanding institutional trading behaviors and data is essential for avoiding pitfalls and making informed investment decisions [10][15] Group 3 - Data analysis is emphasized as a more reliable method for understanding market dynamics compared to superficial stock price movements [16][18] - The importance of monitoring institutional activity is highlighted, as stocks with active institutional participation are more likely to rebound even after short-term declines [11][15] - Investors are encouraged to focus on data rather than price fluctuations to uncover the true market situation and avoid being misled by market sentiment [16][18]