Group 1 - Precious metals are leading the market gains, with gold's safe-haven attributes highlighted amid the political turmoil in Venezuela [1][4] - Oil prices in the Asia-Pacific market have turned from a decline to a slight increase, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $60.92 per barrel and WTI crude futures up by 0.2% to $57.43 per barrel [3] - Analysts expect that even if Venezuela's oil exports are disrupted, it will not have an immediate impact on oil prices due to a globally sufficient oil supply [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026, marking a historic oversupply record [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecast for Brent crude at an average of $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel for 2026, indicating limited risk from the Venezuelan situation [4][5] - RBC Capital Markets suggests that a complete lifting of sanctions on Venezuela could release hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within 12 months under an orderly transition [5] Group 3 - Gold prices have risen by 1.4% to $4,393.64 per ounce, with silver up by 3.4% to $75.28 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainties [5] - UBS highlights that gold remains an attractive asset and a crucial risk-hedging tool, with expectations of steady demand growth due to declining real interest rates and rising global economic uncertainties [5][6] - UBS has raised its target price for gold to $5,000 per ounce by March 2026, with potential for prices to reach $5,400 per ounce if political or financial risks escalate [6]

摘要2026年1月5日欧洲时段，黄金、白银等贵金属价格显著上涨，主因美国抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗引 发地缘政治风险升温，投资者纷纷涌入贵金属寻求避险。现货黄金日内大涨50美元，现报4382.84美元/ 盎司，涨幅1.16%；现货白银暴涨2.00美元，报74.79美元/盎司，涨幅2.75%；现货铂金上涨4.25%，报 2239美元/盎司；现货钯金涨3.69%，报1692美元/盎司。 近期美联储FOMC会议纪要显示，尽管在降息时机和幅度上存在分歧，但多数官员认为，若通胀逐步回 落，进一步降息是合适的。较低利率可降低持有黄金的机会成本，利好无息贵金属。 铂钯外盘近期大幅上涨，叠加南美地缘风险升温，贵金属短期或偏强运行。但钯金波动较大，交易所已 多次提示风险并调整保证金，单边风险高;铂价上涨主要受白银带动，因其兼具金融与工业属性，后续 或跟随白银节奏波动。目前贵金属板块有暂时见顶迹象，铂价或由此前的单边上涨转为宽幅震荡。 周五晚将发布的美国12月非农就业报告成市场焦点，普遍预期新增5.7万个岗位。若数据强于预期，或 推升美元并对美元计价大宗商品价格形成短期压力。 技术分析 现货黄金：周线呈现平头顶部形态，RSI仍处高位 ...

基本面： 周一（1月5日）亚盘时段，现货黄金跳空高开并刷新一周内高点至4421.5美元/盎司，目前暂交投于4405美元附近。这场波动的直接导火索，是周末期间美 国对委内瑞拉发动的闪电军事行动——总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其夫妇在首都住所被捕，并已被迅速移送至纽约候审。这一事件如同投入平静湖面的巨石， 瞬间激起了金融市场对避险资产的狂热需求。然而，金价的攀升之路并非坦途，同期美元指数攀升至近两周高位的强势表现，如同悬在多头上方的利剑，令 市场情绪复杂而微妙。 整体来看，全球局势动荡或继续影响黄金未来涨势，另外本周将迎来多个美国重要经济数据，交易者或予以关注。 技术面： 操作思路： 日线级别，金价周五继续震荡报收录得小实体收盘，盘中再度承压4400关口附近令短期K线维持在此前高位大阴线下方排列，或暗示短期仍有潜在下探风 险，交易者重点留意4450以下承压及下方4300关口测试风险。1--4小时级别，短线走势自上周4550高位回吐涨幅后先后多次挑战4300关口防守，至周五盘中 继续测试4300上方守住空间令价格再度反弹。截止当前亚盘时段，价格暂突破4400后测试上方或寻找压力，日内或关注4430--4450区间防守测试 ...

| 伦敦银现 | | | SPTAGUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 75.844 | | | +3.025 +4.15% | | IDC USD 11:05:02 | | | *** | | 学- | 75.901 | | | | 买- | 75.844 | | | | 总量 | | 现手 | | | 持仓 | | 增仓 | | | 均价 | | 开盘 | 72.755 | | 最高 | 76.358 | 最低 | 72.755 | | 涨停 | | 跌停 | | | 涨跌Close | | 涨跌幅 | | | 外盘 | | 内盤 | | | 昨收 | 72.819 | 振幅 | 4.95% | | 昨结 | 72.819 | 结算价 | | 业内人士指出，此次行情爆发的直接诱因是周末突发的地缘政治 "黑天鹅" 事件,市场对政策不确定性的担忧急剧升温，资金纷纷涌向黄金、白银等避险资 产，推动贵金属价格跳空高开。 值得关注的是，此前贵金属市场刚经历一轮剧烈调整。在 2025年12月29日至2026年1月4日当周，受芝加哥交易所连续两次上调贵金属保证金影响，投资者 获利了结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure and decline [1] - Tin: Under pressure and decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and copper. The capture of the Venezuelan president has injected geopolitical risk premiums into the gold market and may distort the global copper supply [1][2][6] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different metals vary, affecting their price trends. For example, zinc is facing supply increase and demand decrease in the medium - long term, while aluminum and nickel are showing short - term rebound trends [1][8][12] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core view**: Long - term hold, short - term attention to the trading of the safe - haven properties of gold and silver after the opening [1][3] - **Main logic**: The capture of the Venezuelan president has a far - reaching impact, enhancing the safe - haven demand for gold. The European economic data is weak, and the overall support for precious metals in 2026 is strong [2][3] - **Market data**: SHFE gold price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX gold price increased by 0.23%. SHFE silver price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX silver price increased by 1.81% [2] Copper - **Core view**: Long - term hold, short - term market volatility may increase, copper is likely to rise and difficult to fall [1][6] - **Main logic**: The global copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, and the geopolitical situation may further distort the supply. High copper prices suppress demand [5][6] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 0.84%, and the social inventory increased by 2.41 million tons [4] Zinc - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - **Main logic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, demand weakens, supply slightly recovers, and the price center may gradually decline in January [8] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.06%, and the SMM seven - place social inventory decreased by 0.58 million tons [7] Aluminum - **Core view**: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][13] - **Main logic**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increases, the demand enters the off - season, and the alumina market is in excess [12] - **Market data**: The closing price of LME aluminum increased by 0.80%, and the SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.5 million tons [10] Nickel - **Core view**: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][17] - **Main logic**: Indonesia reduces the nickel ore quota, and the inventory is at a high level. The stainless steel market is in the off - season [16] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract increased by 0.35%, and the SMM nickel ore port inventory decreased by 480,000 wet tons [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1][21] - **Main logic**: The production in January decreases, the supply has room to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [20] - **Market data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.83%, and the weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons [18]

基本面： 周一（1月5日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高开高走，一度强势上涨0.9%，触及每盎司4419.90美元。这场波动的直接导火索，是周末期间美国对委内瑞拉发动的 闪电军事行动——总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其夫妇在首都住所被捕，并已被迅速移送至纽约候审。这一事件如同投入平静湖面的巨石，瞬间激起了金融市场 对避险资产的狂热需求。然而，金价的攀升之路并非坦途，同期美元指数攀升至近两周高位的强势表现，如同悬在多头上方的利剑，令市场情绪复杂而微 妙。 地缘政治"黑天鹅"：避险情绪的核心引擎。抛开短期波动，从更长周期视角审视，黄金市场洋溢着乐观情绪。回顾2025年，金价实现了约65%的惊人涨 幅，表现远超多数大宗商品和资产类别。进入2026年，这种看涨预期有增无减。在参与调查的零售投资者中，高达42%的人预测金价将在2026年升至5000至 6000美元之间；更有29%的投资者看高至6000美元以上。相比之下，认为金价会跌回4000美元以下的仅占十分之一。这种来自"民间"的强烈看多情绪，是市 场情绪的重要风向标。华尔街的行业专家们也倾向于看多，尽管预测可能相对保守。他们认同，在央行持续购金、地缘政治格局碎片化、以及全球主要央行 ...

美国在委内瑞拉采取军事行动并抓捕该国领导人马杜罗后，全球金融市场呈现出显著的分化走势。投资者迅速涌向贵金属寻求避险，推动黄金和 白银价格扭转此前跌势，而原油市场则因全球供应过剩的宏观背景，对这一地缘政治冲击表现出罕见的"淡定"。 1月5日周一，现货黄金价格在早盘上涨近1%，攀升至每盎司4370美元附近，此前一周金价曾下跌4.4%。白银价格大涨1.7%至每盎司74美元附近， 铂金和钯金也同步走升，现货钯金涨超过3%。市场对地缘政治不确定性的本能反应，使得贵金属再次成为资金的避风港。 与此同时，原油市场的反应却并未遵循传统的"战争溢价"逻辑，反而出现下跌。尽管美国总统特朗普证实美军实施了大规模打击，但由于国际能 源署（IEA）预测2026年全球原油供应将出现创纪录的过剩，加之委内瑞拉当前产量在全球占比极低，市场普遍认为这一事件难以改变油市供需 宽松的整体格局，油价并未出现恐慌性飙升。 据新华社和央视新闻报道，当地时间1月3日中午（北京时间1月4日凌晨），美国总统特朗普、国防部长赫格塞思在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对 委内瑞拉动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控制并移送出境举行记者会。特朗普表示，美军在行动中使用了空中、陆地 ...

1月4日，此前受12月国际金价史无前例的暴涨行情压制，中印两国黄金零售需求一度低迷。本周，随着 国际金价自历史高点回落，两国市场的黄金报价纷纷由贴水转为升水，零售需求随之回暖。 在印度市场，本周黄金经销商的报价较国内官方综合金价每盎司最高升水15美元，较上周每盎司最高贴 水61美元的行情实现大幅逆转。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：陈平 中国市场同样迎来转折：国际金价的深度回调激发了新一轮零售需求，本周黄金报价由上周的贴水状 态，转为较国际基准现货金价每盎司升水3美元。 1月4日，此前受12月国际金价史无前例的暴涨行情压制，中印两国黄金零售需求一度低迷。本周，随着 国际金价自历史高点回落，两国市场的黄金报价纷纷由贴水转为升水，零售需求随之回暖。 此外、美国对委内瑞拉进行了"惊人"的攻击，唐纳德·特朗普总统在周六上午的新闻发布会上表示，"我 们将管理这个国家，直到能够进行安全、适当且审慎的过渡"。 此次行动标志着美国在拉 ...

2026年开年，黄金市场上演"冰火两重天"：国内基础金价回落至973元/克，品牌金饰从1420元高点跌至1345–1357元区间，国际金价在4330美元/盎司附近剧 烈震荡。短短数日，一只36克金镯价格波动超1500元，被网友惊呼"买金如炒股"。这场过山车行情背后，是机构获利了结、美联储政策摇摆与高杠杆资金踩 踏的多重绞杀。 然而，就在散户犹豫是否"割肉"时，全球央行却悄然加码——中国已连续13个月增持黄金储备，全球央行2025年净购超800吨，创历史纪录。高盛更喊出 4900美元/盎司（约合国内1200元/克）目标价，激进者甚至预言"万金时代"将至。看涨派坚信：美联储降息周期开启、地缘风险未解、美元信用松动，黄金 仍是终极避险资产。 但谨慎者警告：技术面已亮红灯。若国际金价失守4300美元关键支撑，可能快速下探4050美元；而白银虽因光伏需求暴增、库存告急，年内涨幅超170%， 但RSI严重超买，单日振幅高达11%，投机泡沫一触即破。 值得玩味的是，越来越多的年轻人正掀起"黄金觉醒"：不再只把黄金当首饰，而是通过金豆、积存金、ETF等工具，将其视为对抗通胀与不确定性的"安全 感资产"。 金价从来不只是数字， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury bonds experienced a decline on the first trading day of 2026, with the 30-year bond yield rising to its highest level since early September of the previous year, driven by optimistic market sentiment regarding the U.S. growth outlook, which reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.88%, while the 10-year yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.19%. This movement followed data indicating that initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to one of the lowest levels of the year [1] - A fixed income strategist from DBS Bank noted that the rise in long-term yields may reflect an increase in optimism about the U.S. economy, which could also be echoed in the stock market [1] Group 2 - Australian bonds also fell, as market speculation about rising commodity prices is expected to enhance the country's growth prospects, with both 3-year and 10-year bond yields increasing by approximately 9 basis points [3] - The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.5% against the U.S. dollar, outperforming other currencies in the G10 group [3] - A strategist from Lombard Odier indicated that the fluctuations in the Australian dollar and interest rates partly reflect bond investors' cautious positioning ahead of the U.S. December non-farm payroll data release, with increased activity in the global metal trade market contributing to this momentum [3] - Long-term bonds in Germany and France also recorded declines at the opening [3]