来源：央视新闻 编辑：严哲川 校对：刘嘉文 审核：束孟卿 签发：彭佶群 数据显示，国际金价今年以来的涨幅已超过50%。黄金是典型的避险资产。分析认为，美国政府停摆、法国政局动荡、美日等国的经济隐忧以及持续的地 缘冲突等多重因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的避险需求。 15日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价一度 超过每盎司4200美元，创历史新高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is transitioning from a "safe-haven asset" to a "speculative darling," with prices soaring over 50% this year and reaching a historic high of over $4200 per ounce, raising concerns about a potential bubble forming beneath the shiny surface [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current gold bull market is unusual as gold prices continue to rise while U.S. and global stock markets have rebounded significantly since April, indicating a disconnect between traditional safe-haven behavior and market sentiment [3]. - Major Wall Street investment banks are raising their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 20% increase by the end of next year, and Societe Generale suggesting a rise to $5000 is increasingly inevitable, which is often a characteristic of market bubbles [3]. - Gold's price movement is now highly correlated with high-risk assets like U.S. stocks, challenging the traditional view that gold should strengthen during times of market risk and weaken when risk appetite increases [3]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Initial concerns over global trade and geopolitical risks, particularly after Trump's return to the White House, justified the strong demand for physical gold as a hedge or diversification tool [4]. - Global monetary and fiscal policies, including threats to central bank independence, have heightened inflation concerns and lowered real interest rates, making gold more attractive despite its zero yield [4]. - The U.S. government's intention to weaken the dollar has also contributed to gold's appeal, yet the disconnect between gold's price and declining economic uncertainty indicators raises market caution [4]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - Central banks are consistently buying gold for reserve diversification, and gold ETFs are attracting more investors seeking reliable hedging tools, indicating a structural and stable demand for gold [6]. - Despite the strong demand, a significant portion of private investors remains underexposed to gold, with over one-third of surveyed asset managers having no gold allocation, and those who do have an average weight of only 4.2% [6][7]. - The current market presents a paradox where gold is seen as a crowded trade, yet actual allocations remain relatively limited, complicating market assessments [7]. Group 4: Warning Signals - Three warning signs regarding gold's rapid price increase include: the speed of the rise, a disconnect from market uncertainty indicators, and divergence from real interest rates and the U.S. dollar [8]. - JPMorgan suggests that the recent surge in gold prices exceeds what can be explained by declines in one-year real interest rates, indicating potential overvaluation [8]. - If market expectations for the Federal Reserve's terminal interest rate rise again, gold may face challenges, especially as inflation expectations continue to climb [11].

15日，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价一度超过每盎司4200美元，创历史新高。 数据显示，国际金价今年以来的涨幅已超过50%。黄金是典型的避险资产。分析认为，美国政府"停摆"、法国政局动荡、美日等国的经济隐忧，以及持续 的地缘冲突等多重因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的避险需求。 来源：央视新闻 责编：叶舒筠 ...

（来源：ETF炼金师） 2025年10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格攀升至4040.05美元/盎司，创下历史新高。这一突破距离3月首次突 破3000美元关口仅过去7个月，年内涨幅已超过50%，创下自1980年以来最快的年度涨幅。 黄金价格从3000美元飞跃至4000美元的过程展现了多个因素的共同作用。自3月中旬首次突破3000美元 后，黄金在4月份迅速攀升至3500美元，随后在3300-3600美元区间震荡调整。9月美联储宣布降息，开 启宽松政策，成为金价快速上升的重要催化剂。10月国庆假期前，黄金价格在短时间内突破4000美元， 再次引发市场关注。 推动黄金价格上涨的底层逻辑主要包括美元信用危机、美联储的降息政策以及地缘政治冲突的升级。美 国庞大的联邦政府债务已经对其财政可持续性构成压力，债务危机的风险正在加大，市场对美元资产的 信心受到打击，黄金作为避险资产的优势愈发明显。同时，全球范围内去美元化的趋势加速，越来越多 的国家推进储备资产多元化，导致多国央行持续增持黄金。 此外，9月美联储宣布降息25个基点，由于美国劳动力市场表现疲软，市场普遍认为2025年下半年可能 会有更多降息举措，这种宽松的货币政策为金价提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, reaching a historical high, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors that have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On December 15, the gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange exceeded $4200 per ounce, marking a historical peak [1]. - The international gold price has increased by over 50% since the beginning of the year [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Demand - Multiple factors are contributing to the heightened demand for gold, including the potential U.S. government shutdown, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan and the U.S., and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [3].

15日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价一度超过每盎司4200美元，创历 史新高。 数据显示，国际金价今年以来的涨幅已超过50%。黄金是典型的避险资产。分析认为，美国政府停摆、 法国政局动荡、美日等国的经济隐忧以及持续的地缘冲突等多重因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的避 险需求。 ...

前言：富格林与广大客户同金共富跨越15载，凭借丰富的市况行情分析经验积攒可靠口碑和广泛信任，有力协助曝光压制各式欺诈套路形成。 在全球经济风云变幻的当下，黄金作为避险资产的王者地位再次彰显。当前国际贸易紧张、地缘政治不确定性和货币政策宽松预期，继续给金 价提供上涨动能。黄金今年以来已累计上涨57%，黄金从周一首次叩开4100美元大门，到如今的持续上探，已然成为资本市场的焦点宠儿，继 续保持强劲势头。投资者如遭受欺诈套路困扰，可寻求富格林协助曝光，及时在线咨询分析师团队获取即时操作建议把握盈利先机。 富格林与广大客户同金共富跨越15载，凭借丰富的市况行情分析经验积攒可靠口碑和广泛信任，有力协助曝光压制各式欺诈套路形成。在周三 亚洲早盘交易中，黄金现货价格突破每盎司4185美元的历史高位，再度引发全球市场关注。国际贸易担忧、美国政府停摆、地缘政治风暴与货 币政策转向有望帮助金价进一步冲高。投资者如遭受欺诈套路困扰，可寻求富格林协助曝光，及时在线咨询分析师团队获取即时操作建议把握 盈利先机。 富格林据讯，周二现货黄金盘中触及4180美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高，随后出现闪崩，较日高回调近90美元，美盘重新走高，最终 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price continues to rise, recently surpassing $4,100 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The surge in gold prices began in late August, with a price increase of over 23.2% from August 21 to October 14, driven by rising global risk aversion and declining confidence in the US dollar [1]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are a key trigger for the gold price increase, with expectations of further cuts strengthening since August [1][4]. - Multiple risk factors, including the US government shutdown crisis and escalating global trade tensions, have intensified market risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold [1][2]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks worldwide have been significant buyers of gold, with a reported increase of 166 tons in global official gold reserves in Q2 of this year, marking a historical high [2]. - It is projected that annual gold purchases by central banks will exceed 1,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, indicating a sustained trend of increasing gold investment [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to strengthen due to factors such as further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, high US government debt, and increasing geopolitical risks [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the international gold price in December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing diversification in investments and increased ETF holdings as contributing factors [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - The current gold price increase is seen as driven by short-term risk aversion, with significant inflows into gold ETFs in North America and Europe since late August [3]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about potential profit-taking and market corrections due to rapid price increases, suggesting a need for caution among investors [4].

上周，资产管理公司城堡集团(Citadel)首席执行官肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)表示，投资者开始将黄金视为 比美元更安全的投资选择，并称这一情况"令人十分担忧"。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通公司首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，他认为持有黄金有一定道理，但对于经 历了历史性上涨后黄金是否被高估了，他不置可否。 戴蒙周二说道："我并不热衷于购买黄金——持有黄金的成本是 4%。在这种环境下，黄金价格很容易 涨到 5000 美元、10000 美元。这是在我人生中少有的几次，在投资组合中持有一些黄金是半理性的。" 两年前，黄金价格还低于每盎司 2000 美元，但自本世纪以来，其涨幅已超过了股票市场。这反映出在 通胀担忧和地缘政治动荡的背景下，投资者对避险资产的需求。周二，黄金价格继续强劲上涨，上涨 0.8%至每盎司 4142.94 美元，今年的涨幅达到了 58%。 戴蒙说："资产价格确实偏高。并且在我看来，这一点几乎影响到了所有领域。" ...

此后，近几周印度市场对白银的需求激增，进一步减少了伦敦市场可供交易的银条供应。 尽管 4 月份贵金属已被正式豁免征税，但在美国政府针对关键矿产（包括白银、铂金和钯金）开展 的所谓" 232 条款调查"得出结论之前，交易商仍保持警惕。这项调查重燃了市场对这些金属可能 被纳入新关税范围的担忧，进一步加剧了市场紧张局势。 高盛集团（ Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ）分析师在一份报告中写道："白银市场流动性较低，规 模约为黄金市场的九分之一，这会放大价格波动。由于没有央行买入来稳定白银价格，即便投资资 金出现暂时性回撤，也可能引发幅度较大的回调——因为这同时会缓解此前推动近期大部分涨势的 伦敦市场白银紧张局面。" 白银价格在触及每盎司 53 美元以上的历史高点后出现回落。此前，伦敦市场发生历史性空头逼 空，叠加避险资产需求激增所带来的推动作用，曾令白银涨势如虹。 伦敦市场白银现货价格在触及每盎司 53.55 美元后下跌 2.2% 。这一价格比 1980 年 1 月芝加哥 期货交易所（现该交易所旗下相关合约已失效）监管的合约所创下的峰值高出约 1 美元——当时亿 万富翁亨特兄弟曾试图操纵白银市场。 ...