1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation shows that China's CPI in September declined slightly compared to the previous value, the decline of PPI prices has narrowed for two consecutive months, and the core CPI continues to recover. In terms of trade, the year - on - year growth rate of imports in September rebounded significantly, and exports to major economies such as ASEAN and the EU continued to grow. The manufacturing PMI in September rebounded to 49.8, with a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped to the critical point, and overall production and business activities remained in expansion. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing an end and is worried about the continuous weakening of the US labor market, and the market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cut in October remains firm. The probability of the new round of tariff hikes actually taking effect is low. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Strategically, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading approach and closely monitor policy trends and market sentiment changes [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased by 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively, while the TS main contract remained unchanged. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 36447, 26353, 7649, and 32987 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603 decreased, while T2512 - 2603, TS2512 - 2603 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TS, and TL main contracts decreased, while the TF main contract increased. The net short positions of T and TF decreased, while those of TS and TL increased [2]. 3.2 CTD and Bond Quotes - **CTD Net Prices**: Some CTD net prices increased, such as 220019.IB, while others decreased, such as 250018.IB [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 2.50bp, while those of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.10bp, 0.75bp, 1.25bp, and 0.85bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 0.20bp, the Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.10bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 1.36bp, and the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 0.90bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Domestic News**: China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that in September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 6000 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on October 15, with a net investment of 4000 billion yuan in October [2]. - **Overseas News**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months and is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [2]. 3.5 Key Events to Watch - On October 16 at 02:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions. At 20:30 on the same day, the US September retail sales month - on - month rate will be announced [3].

Group 1: Inflation Data - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight narrowing of the decline compared to August[1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, slightly higher than the same period last year[1] - The food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month but fell by 4.4% year-on-year, close to the August decline[5] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to narrow[2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals increased, while the decline in building materials prices narrowed[2] - The recent external uncertainty, including potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, has not significantly altered domestic economic and price trends[2] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI increased by 1% year-on-year in September, continuing its upward trend over the past few months[5] - Prices of durable goods, such as household appliances and communication equipment, have recently shown signs of recovery[5] - Other goods and services have seen significant price increases, influenced by rising gold prices[5]

Core Insights - The article highlights that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low in September, but core inflation is showing signs of recovery, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is experiencing a narrowing decline, indicating marginal improvement in industrial demand [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months that it has surpassed 1% [2][4]. - The decline in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with significant drops in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, down 17.0%, 13.7%, and 13.5% respectively [6][4]. - Analysts suggest that the high base effect will gradually diminish, and there is potential for the CPI to turn positive year-on-year within the year [7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][10]. - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the "anti-involution" policies that have led to price stabilization in several industries, including coal and steel, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% month-on-month [9][10]. - The overall market environment is improving due to regulatory measures aimed at curbing disorderly competition, which is expected to enhance industrial capacity utilization and support a re-inflationary trend [11].

Group 1 - The consumer market in September showed overall stability, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.1% month-on-month and decreasing by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2][3] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, with seasonal increases in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef prices ranging from 0.9% to 6.1%, while pork and aquatic product prices fell by 0.7% and 1.8% respectively [2][3] - The year-on-year CPI decline of 0.3% was primarily due to the tail effect, with food prices dropping by 4.4%, significantly impacting the CPI [3][5] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][5] - Improvements in supply-demand structure led to price stabilization in certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, which saw price increases of 3.8% and 0.2% respectively [4][5] - The implementation of macroeconomic policies and the deepening of the national unified market construction contributed to a reduction in the year-on-year price decline in various sectors, with notable improvements in coal processing and black metal industries [5]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw its first year-on-year increase in 19 months, rising to 1% and marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [2][4] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month increase in CPI was driven by seasonal price rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef, with increases ranging from 0.9% to 6.1%. Conversely, pork and aquatic product prices fell by 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively [4] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a base effect, with the tail effect contributing approximately -0.8 percentage points to the -0.3% change [5] - In the food category, pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits saw price declines of 17.0%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 4.2%, respectively, while beef and lamb prices increased by 4.6% and 0.8% [5] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [8] - The stabilization in PPI is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and the impact of macroeconomic policies, which have led to positive price changes in certain industries [8] - The "anti-involution" policy and the significant drop in the year-on-year comparison base have contributed to the narrowing of the PPI decline [9][10] Future Outlook - Forecasts suggest that the CPI may rise to around 0.1% year-on-year in October, driven by the effects of consumption-boosting policies and a lower base from the previous year [6] - The overall expectation is for a mild recovery in CPI throughout the year, with an anticipated annual increase of 0.1% [7] - PPI is expected to continue facing downward pressure until there is a significant recovery in the real estate market and consumer confidence [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight improvement in CPI and PPI, with CPI at -0.3% year-on-year and PPI at -2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a better economic outlook compared to previous months [1][5][10] - CPI shows a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with consumer goods prices rising by 0.3%, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [6][10] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, has improved for five consecutive months, reaching 1.0% year-on-year, the first time it has crossed 1% since March 2024 [6][10] Group 2 - Key details from CPI include a continued decline in pork prices at -0.7% month-on-month, and a notable increase in gold jewelry prices, which rose by 6.5% month-on-month and 42.1% year-on-year [2][7] - Rental prices have shown stability with zero growth for two consecutive months, while household appliances have seen a month-on-month increase of 0.6% for three consecutive months [2][6] - Medical service prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9% in September [2][6] Group 3 - PPI has not turned positive in September but has shown zero growth for two consecutive months, an improvement from the previous eight months of negative growth [3][10] - The mining sector has contributed positively to PPI, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2%, while durable consumer goods, particularly in the automotive manufacturing sector, have seen a month-on-month decline of -0.5% [3][10][13] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in the automotive manufacturing sector has expanded to -3.0%, indicating potential pressures on corporate profits and economic pricing [3][13] Group 4 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests a potential stabilization in economic activity, supported by increased project investments and stable domestic demand [4][14] - Despite external pressures such as fluctuating oil prices and tariff disturbances, the domestic liquidity remains adequate, contributing to a stable economic environment [4][14] - Historical data indicates that external tariff disturbances have had limited impact on certain asset classes, emphasizing the importance of intrinsic asset safety margins [4][14]

Inflation Data - September CPI year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points to -0.3%, remaining at a low level since the beginning of the year[3] - Core CPI improved by 0.1 percentage points to 1.0%, the highest since March 2024, driven by rising gold prices and effective fiscal subsidies for durable goods[3] - Food CPI fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable and fruit prices rising by 6.1% and 1.7% respectively, while pork prices continued to decline due to ample supply[4] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - September PPI year-on-year decline narrowed significantly by 0.6 percentage points to -2.3%, influenced by low base effects and anti-involution measures[3] - PPI recovery is expected to be gradual due to weak domestic investment demand, with upstream industrial prices stabilizing as anti-involution progresses[5] - International oil price fluctuations led to a 2.0% month-on-month decline in oil and gas extraction, while coal mining increased by 2.5% month-on-month[5] Economic Outlook - The inflation data indicates a synchronized improvement in core CPI and PPI, with fiscal subsidies continuing to boost durable goods consumption[6] - Uncertainties in the fourth quarter and into 2026 are anticipated due to potential export pressures from cooling external demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] - The central government may increase consumption subsidies and effective investment budgets if export declines are significant, with a potential for a small interest rate cut of 10 basis points[6]

Core Insights - France's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a month-on-month decrease of 1%, matching the forecast and previous value of a 1% decline [1] Group 1 - The final CPI figure for September indicates a consistent trend in inflation rates, with no deviation from expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low, core inflation is showing signs of recovery, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is experiencing a narrowing decline, indicating marginal improvement in industrial demand [1][2][4]. CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.0%, marking the first time in 19 months that it has returned to 1% [1][2]. - The decline in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which fell by 4.4%, with significant drops in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, down 17.0%, 13.7%, and 13.5% respectively [3][4]. - The "tail effect" contributed to a 0.8 percentage point decrease in the year-on-year CPI [3]. PPI Analysis - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5]. - Certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, have shown price increases, indicating a stabilization in prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. - The overall improvement in PPI is attributed to the reduction of high base effects from the previous year and the impact of policies aimed at regulating market competition [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to enhance industrial capacity utilization and promote re-inflation, which may positively influence the capital market and stabilize social confidence [7].

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while it increased by 0.1% month-on-month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month [1][13]. CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year decline was primarily driven by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which contributed approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decrease. Notably, pork prices fell by 17.0%, fresh vegetables by 13.7%, and eggs by 13.5% [12][4]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, the highest increase in 19 months [12][1]. - In September, food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing about 0.13 percentage points to the CPI rise [10][11]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.3% was a reduction of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the decline [13][19]. - The prices of production materials decreased by 2.4%, significantly impacting the overall PPI level. The mining industry saw a 9.0% drop in prices, while the processing industry experienced a 1.7% decline [16][19]. - The PPI remained stable month-on-month, with the prices of production materials holding steady and life goods prices decreasing by 0.2% [17][19]. Price Changes by Category - In September, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables and pork being the most significant contributors to this decline [4][12]. - The prices of clothing and household goods saw increases of 1.7% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, while transportation and communication prices fell by 2.0% [9][12]. - The service prices experienced a 0.3% decrease, influenced by seasonal factors such as the end of summer and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [11][12].