2025.05. 05 本文字数：2241，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 美国近期单方加征关税，尤其是对中国加征畸高关税，对全球经济造成严重冲击。为了应对外部冲击 影响加大等情况，不久前中共中央政治局会议对经济工作作出部署，其中包括用好用足更加积极的财 政政策。 "财政部门要深入贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神和今年《政府工作报告》部署，聚焦高质量发展关 键领域、薄弱环节，加强财税政策支持和资金保障，精准施策、持续用力，充分释放财政政策效 能。"蓝佛安称。 根据上述文章，财政部门下一步深入实施财政政策发力点，主要在七大方面，即大力提振消费；积极 扩大有效投资；加快培育发展新质生产力；加强对企业的纾困支持；加大保障和改善民生力度；支持 城乡区域融合发展和防范化解重点领域风险。 除了落实好已有更加积极财政政策外，财政增量政策也颇受关注。 蓝佛安还在文中强调，为应对可能出现的冲击，财政始终留有后手。政府有较大举债空间。 "充足的储备工具，巨大的政策空间，特别是在实践中形成的财政宏观调控科学方法论，是我们做好 当前财政工作的信心和底气所在。"蓝佛安说。 为应对潜在冲击，今年全国两会期间中国推出了力度更大 ...

五一假期影响市场的重要资讯有：人民币、港币汇率大幅走强，香港金管局时隔五年首次购入美元以维 持联系汇率制度；全球避险资产整体回落，其中COMEX黄金下跌2.6%，10年期美债利率上行14BP；欧 盟希望以购买更多美国商品的方式结束关税战；日美进行第二轮关税谈判，暂未达成关税共识；美国对 加拿大及墨西哥汽车零部件免关税；"五一"假期出行活跃，短途客流增长明显；蓝佛安发文解读2024财 政新政；特朗普对国外电影征收100%的关税；欧佩克+6月将增产41.1万桶/日；胡塞武装首次成功袭击 机场致航班停运；伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会召开；小米汽车将智驾更名为辅助驾驶；飞猪："五 一"定制游预订量大增超80%。 市场表现： （一）全球风险资产全面上涨，恒生科技指数领涨 五一假期期间，全球风险资产延续修复行情，其中中国资产领涨，恒生科技指数上涨3.1%，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数上涨2.7%，恒生指数上涨1.7%，富时中国A50期货上涨0.3%。美股方面，三大指数整体上 涨，纳斯达克指数上涨3.0%、标普500指数上涨2.3%、道琼斯工业指数上涨1.9%，其中纳指与标普500 已修复4月2日以来全部跌幅。 欧洲方面，德国D ...

Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported a net profit of $4.603 billion for Q1 2025, down from $12.702 billion in the same period last year [2] - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was $89.725 billion, slightly down from $89.869 billion year-on-year [2] - Berkshire Hathaway experienced an investment net loss of $5.038 billion in Q1 2025, compared to a profit of $1.48 billion in the previous year [2] - As of March 31, 2025, the company's cash position reached a record high of $347.7 billion [2] - 69% of the total fair value of equity investments is concentrated in American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Chevron, and Coca-Cola [2] Investment Trends - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought $6.005 billion in US dollars for the first time in five years, injecting HKD 46.539 billion into the market [4] - As of May 2, 2025, 21 brokerage firms have released their stock recommendations, totaling 208 recommendations across 167 A-shares [4] - The top recommended stocks include Haida Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Dongpeng Beverage, with 5, 4, and 4 recommendations respectively [4] - By April 30, 2025, 5,399 listed companies had disclosed their Q1 reports, with 603 companies having social security funds among their top ten circulating shareholders [5] Economic Indicators - As of the end of March, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.071 billion, 244 million, and 297 million respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 4.42 million, 2.56 million, and 2.71 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a more proactive fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy and enhancing social welfare, guided by Xi Jinping's economic thought [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness - In 2024, a series of incremental fiscal policies were implemented, leading to a noticeable economic rebound and increased social confidence, particularly during the second and third quarters [3][4]. - A one-time increase of 6 trillion yuan in local special bond limits was executed to replace hidden debts, with the 2024 replacement quota fully issued and over 70% of the 2025 quota completed, resulting in an average interest rate reduction of over 2.5% [4]. - The introduction of special government bonds to support state-owned banks in enhancing their core capital is aimed at improving their ability to serve the real economy [4]. Group 2: Support for Key Sectors - The government has intensified support for the real estate market through tax incentives and special bonds, leading to signs of stabilization in the housing sector [5]. - A significant adjustment in student aid policies has been made, benefiting over 34 million students, alongside direct financial assistance to over 11 million vulnerable individuals [6]. - The GDP growth rate for the last quarter of the previous year was 5.4%, with a total GDP of 134.9 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [6]. Group 3: Strategic Fiscal Management - The design and implementation of fiscal policies reflect the central government's strategic thinking, emphasizing a systematic approach to balancing multiple objectives such as growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention [7][8]. - The government is focusing on precise measures to address key economic challenges, particularly in local government debt management, to foster new growth points [8]. - The fiscal policy aims to enhance macroeconomic control by increasing the deficit ratio to 4% and raising the fiscal budget to 5.66 trillion yuan, the highest in recent years [11][12]. Group 4: Investment and Consumption Promotion - The government is committed to boosting consumption through substantial fiscal measures, including a 300 billion yuan allocation for consumer subsidies [14]. - Effective investment strategies are being employed, with a focus on both physical and human capital, including the issuance of long-term special bonds to support infrastructure and equipment upgrades [15]. - Increased funding for scientific research and technology is prioritized, with a 10% rise in central government technology spending compared to the previous year [15]. Group 5: Social Welfare and Regional Development - The fiscal strategy includes enhancing social welfare by increasing funding for education, healthcare, and social security, with a focus on improving living standards [17]. - Support for rural development and agricultural policies is being strengthened to ensure food security and promote rural revitalization [18]. - The government is actively working to mitigate risks in key sectors, particularly in local government debt management and the real estate market [18].

蓝佛安：聚焦高质量发展关键领域、薄弱环节 加强财税政策支持和资金保障 智通财经5月3日电，财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安日前在求是杂志发表文章《更加积极财政政策的科学 设计与成功实践》，其中提出，凡事预则立，不预则废。当前，美国对所有贸易伙伴实施所谓"对等关 税"正在持续引发全球市场动荡，我国经济发展面临的不利影响加深，经济运行面临新情况新挑战，需 要深入实施更加积极的财政政策，有效对冲外部风险对我国经济的不利冲击。财政部门要深入贯彻落实 中央经济工作会议精神和今年《政府工作报告》部署，聚焦高质量发展关键领域、薄弱环节，加强财税 政策支持和资金保障，精准施策、持续用力，充分释放财政政策效能。 ...

Macro Economic Policy - The recent important national meeting has outlined the economic work priorities and goals for the near future, emphasizing the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and increased investment in infrastructure, which will inject strong momentum into the financial market [1] - The advancement of infrastructure projects is expected to boost related industries such as steel, cement, and construction machinery, leading to more orders and improved performance, thereby attracting capital inflow into related stocks and driving up their prices [1] - Increased infrastructure investment will also stimulate social financing demand, expanding the credit business of banks and improving their profit expectations, which will enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks in the capital market [1] Monetary Policy - The meeting has signaled a flexible and moderate approach to monetary policy, emphasizing the maintenance of reasonable liquidity, which will help stabilize market expectations [2] - A more abundant liquidity environment is likely to lead to increased market funding supply, resulting in rising bond prices and declining yields, thus lowering the cost of corporate bond issuance and easing financing difficulties [2] - The low interest rate environment will encourage investors to shift funds from low-yield products like money market funds to the bond market, further stimulating market activity [2] Industrial Policy - The meeting's support measures for emerging industries and key sectors are expected to reshape investment hotspots in the financial market, particularly in areas like new energy, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors [4] - Policies such as tax incentives and fiscal subsidies will attract significant capital into these sectors, leading to increased investor interest and potential stock price surges in related concept stocks [4] - Venture capital and private equity firms are likely to increase investments in startups within emerging industries, providing necessary funding for innovation and development, thus fostering a virtuous cycle between capital markets and the real economy [4] Capital Market Reform - The meeting's deployment of capital market reform will enhance the vitality and competitiveness of the financial market, with proposed measures to improve the registration system, strengthen investor protection, and enhance the quality of listed companies [4] - These reforms are expected to attract more long-term capital into the market and optimize the investor structure, while also boosting foreign confidence in China's capital market, potentially increasing the inflow of northbound funds and enhancing market valuation [4]

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截至2025年4月28日 09:52，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.16%，最新价报112.13元。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手5.11%，成交3.35亿元。拉长 时间看，截至4月25日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交30.58亿元。 招商证券张伟点评重要会议称，货币政策保持适度宽松，资金面也将维持合理充裕。并且货币政策将加强与财政政策配合，接下来政府债券发行保持偏快节 奏对债市影响可控。关注2季度经济变化，降息降准仍有可能，因而债市短期风险小，仍处于友好环境。债市交易性难度提升，维持市场中性久期，多看少 动为宜，长债调整时候择机加仓。 从资金净流入方面来看，30年国债ETF博时近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3510.28万元净流入，合计"吸金"5054.02万元，日均净流入达1263.51万 元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时最新融资买入额达6724.47万元，最新融资余额达7928.72万元。 截至4月25日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨14.21%，指数债券型基金排名3/373，居于前0.80%。从收益能力看，截至2025年4月25日，3 ...

具体看，在财政政策方面，会议强调，"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"。 本报记者韩昱 温彬认为，二季度中央金融机构注资特别国债和超长期特别国债开启发行，加之专项债券"自审自发"加 速推进，新增专项债券发行也会加快。 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议强调，要加紧实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 展望未来，温彬表示，财政政策仍有加力空间，可能出台的增量政策举措包括，一是上调广义财政赤字 率目标，增发国债或特别国债；二是盘活地方债结存限额；三是加大消费补贴力度、扩大补贴范围，培 育壮大文化旅游消费、家政服务消费、数字消费、体育消费等新的消费增长点。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，"用好"体现在存量政策加速落地，今年一季度，财政发力支持经 济"开门红"，后续将加快专项债券以及超长期特别国债的发行使用，更好地促进经济增长、对冲外部扰 动。"用足"体现在"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节"，财政政策空间充 足，货币政策和财政政策的配合也将进一步加强。 从超长期特别国债角度看，今年我国拟发行超长期特别 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of special government bonds in China has accelerated, with a total of 286 billion yuan issued on April 24, marking the first issuance of the year and accounting for approximately 16% of the annual target of 1.8 trillion yuan [1][2] - The issuance of special bonds is part of a broader strategy to enhance macroeconomic stability amid significant economic pressures, with a focus on supporting specific projects and stabilizing financial markets [1][2] - The 2025 special bond issuance plan includes 1.3 trillion yuan for long-term projects and 500 billion yuan specifically for capital replenishment of state-owned commercial banks, reflecting an 80% increase from the previous year [1][3] Group 2 - The first tranche of special bonds includes 1.65 trillion yuan for central financial institution capital injection, representing about 33% of the total planned for this purpose [2] - The issuance timeline has been moved up compared to last year, with this year's first issuance occurring significantly earlier than the previous year's [2][4] - The funds from the special bonds will be allocated primarily to local governments, with 87.7% designated for transfer payments, indicating a strong focus on regional economic support [4] Group 3 - The special bonds are expected to enhance the capital base of major state-owned banks, which are crucial for maintaining financial stability and supporting the real economy [3][4] - The government aims to use the proceeds from the special bonds to fund various strategic initiatives, including infrastructure development, ecological protection, and upgrading public services [3][4] - The bonds will be issued in various maturities, including 20, 30, and 50 years, and will be available for purchase by individual investors through designated channels [4][5]