Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, affecting all countries, which is raising risk aversion and pushing gold prices higher [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with officials indicating the need for confidence in declining inflation before making decisions [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong upward trend in gold prices, with a focus on the support level around $3110 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical uncertainties, including the US-Russia tensions over Ukraine and threats from Iran, are increasing risks to oil supply, which is supportive of oil prices [2] - China's March manufacturing PMI data at 50.5, slightly better than the previous value, is expected to improve oil demand [2] - Despite negative fundamental factors, geopolitical tensions and improved manufacturing data are expected to provide marginal support for oil prices [2] - Technical indicators show a strong upward trend in oil prices, with a focus on the support level around $70 [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 and Copper Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a weak trend with multiple days of decline, indicating bearish sentiment [3] - Copper prices are testing the 20-day moving average support, with potential for further gains if it stabilizes [3] - Technical analysis indicates a risk of weakness in copper prices, with attention on the resistance level around $5.09 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to experience short - term high - level fluctuations due to the intertwining of multiple factors, and attention should be paid to the release of US soybean planting area data and Sino - US trade developments [1][4]. - Rapeseed meal will have short - term fluctuations, following the trend of soybean meal, and the actual positive impact of the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed meal is limited [1][6]. - Palm oil is predicted to have short - term high - level fluctuations. Although the supply and demand factors in March are weakening, it shows a rebound due to certain events [1][8]. - Cotton is in a state of stopping decline and consolidation, with the market waiting for the official US cotton planting intention. The domestic market may maintain range - bound oscillations [1][12]. - Red dates are expected to operate weakly in the short term, as the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [1][14]. - The price of live pigs is expected to decline slightly, with the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern restricting the price rebound space, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunities in the second half of the year [1][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The Brazilian soybean production outlook is stable, and in Argentina, rainfall will return to above - normal levels in the next 15 days. China and the US have imposed reciprocal 10% tariffs on soybeans, and the trade dispute has temporarily ended. Domestic port and soybean inventories decreased this week, while oil - mill soybean meal inventories increased. From April to June, the monthly average soybean imports will exceed 10 million tons [1][3]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,168.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18% [2]. - **Analysis**: The short - term market is in a state of high - level fluctuations. The market's bullish sentiment has weakened due to the small reduction in the estimated US soybean planting area. Attention should be paid to the release of planting area data and Sino - US trade progress. Near - month contracts face the risk of weakening due to the expected increase in soybean imports in April [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills decreased this week, but the short - term supply is generally sufficient. China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but the actual positive impact is limited [6]. - **Price Movement**: The price has fallen from a high level and is currently in a narrow - range weak consolidation, following the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Analysis**: Short - term fluctuations are expected, and attention should be paid to the release of US soybean area data [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: In March, the Ramadan festival led to a decline in international import demand, and Southeast Asian palm oil production is gradually recovering. The domestic supply is tight, and the spot trading of palm oil is still sluggish due to the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [8]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9,088 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,673 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.06% [7]. - **Analysis**: Although the supply and demand factors in March are weakening, the price shows a rebound due to the Indonesian tariff adjustment and the US plan to increase the blending volume of biodiesel. Short - term high - level fluctuations are expected [1][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, US cotton farmers are more likely to reduce planting areas, and US cotton exports have declined recently. Domestically, the new - season cotton planting area is expected to increase, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the import is shrinking. The downstream orders have improved slightly, but the export is under pressure [10][11]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract CF2505 closed at 13,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% intraday. The domestic spot price decreased slightly by 0.01% [10]. - **Analysis**: The market is in a state of stopping decline and consolidation. The US cotton has a recovery expectation, and the domestic market may maintain range - bound oscillations. Attention should be paid to the follow - up strength of consumption - promoting policies [1][12]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The trading volume in the market is low, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [13][14]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2505 closed at 9,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% intraday [14]. - **Analysis**: The short - term operation is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the situation of the new production season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The supply pressure in the live pig market continues to be released, and the supply of standard pigs is sufficient. Although the demand has increased slightly, it is still weak overall [16]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2505 closed at 13,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% intraday. The domestic spot price remained stable [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to decline slightly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern restricts the price rebound space. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunities in the second half of the year [1][17].

博鳌报告：DeepSeek凸显美国制裁下中国的发展韧 性 3月25日，博鳌亚洲论坛发布的一份报告测算，2025年亚洲经济增速将提升0.1个百分点至4.5%，但贸易 摩擦和地缘政治局势紧张使得亚洲经贸持续承压。 亚洲经贸承压 此次发布的《亚洲经济前景及一体化进程2025 年度报告》（下称"报告"）提到，2025年亚洲经济将温 和回升。根据论坛研究院的测算，今年亚洲经济增速预计将增至4.5%，略高于2024年的4.4%。按购买 力平价计算，亚洲经济体GDP总量占世界的比重，预计将由2024年的48.1%上升至2025年的48.6%。 如果只算中国之外的东亚其他经济体，其2025年加权实际GDP 增长率将下降1.0个百分点至3.3%，除中 国之外的其他亚洲经济体2025年加权实际GDP 增长率也将下降0.3 个百分点至4.2%。报告认为，这反映 出中国经济增长对地区的贡献非常关键。 不过，贸易摩擦阴云持续笼罩。2025年1月20日，美国新一届政府宣称要对来自墨西哥和加拿大的输美 商品征收25%的关税，并对所有中国输美商品额外加征10%的关税，尽管很快宣布暂缓对墨西哥和加拿 大征税，但其引起的新一轮贸易摩擦的阴影给世 ...

沪铝震荡偏强，氧化铝中性：库存等变化 【铝和氧化铝市场一周动态】过去一周，沪铝价格整体回调，回调深度有限，下游有畏高情绪，现货成 交贴水未修复。供应端新增产能伴随产能置换，复产结束后暂无压力。消费端虽 1-2 月宏观数据表现不 一，但整体复苏，社会库存季节性去库顺利，库存压力不大。当前宏观额外扰动因素减少，氧化铝价格 回落使电解铝利润扩大，铝价缺乏进一步支撑。长期看，中国及海外处于降息周期，贸易摩擦持续，非 洲不确定性增加，通胀是主要考虑因素。 海外氧化铝成本低廉，国内氧化铝价格因海外成交价格回落 缺乏支撑。1-2 月中国氧化铝进出口超 30 万吨未引起供应短缺，海外价格形成压力。国内虽因成本出 现检修降负荷，但供应过剩格局未扭转，社会库存持续增加，内陆地区氧化铝检修对盘面价格反弹推力 不足，上涨空间有限。 截至 2025/3/21 当周，伦铝价减少-2.38%至 2624.5 美元/吨，沪铝主力减 少-1.38%至 20700 元/吨。LME铝现货升贴水(0-3)由上周的 20.04 美元/吨变动至 13.48 美元/吨。电解铝 周度运行产能基本平稳，建成产能 4519 万吨，运行产能 4403 万吨，周度 ...

主要观点 • 宏观：全球降息节奏及经济增长变化继续影响市场走势，海外经济增长放缓压力存在，而美国因加关税政策实施， 再通胀压力回升，对经济的负面影响也可能出现。而国内积极财政和适度宽松货币宽松及国内消费刺激之下预期有 一定回升空间，但贸易摩擦不确定性带来全球经济增长降速风险继续存在。地缘形势复杂变化，增强了宏观不确定 性。 • 供应端：锌精矿供给偏紧情况改善，月度加工费出现显著回升。冶炼企业亏损收窄，盈利有继续改善空间，不过锌 定供应仍需要时间改善，流通紧张与预期宽松情况并存。 • 需求端：从锌下游三大需求来看，2025年地产端企稳修复对需求修复料有一定正面企稳作用，以镀锌端为代表的 需求端均会有一定回升可能。但是贸易摩擦料对材料及终端出口带来较多不确定性，需求端扰动因素增加。2025 年初，季节性因素有所显现，春节前开工转淡，春节后逐渐恢复，但开工带来的需求修复程度较为有限，且原料库 存回升也显示，需求增长不及预期。 • 展望：2025年3月，宏观不确定性将继续对有色带来较强扰动，而供需矛盾由供需偏紧向供需过剩转向将进一步延 续，沪锌料转向宽幅波动重心下移，市场运行区间预计主要会在22500-24500元/ ...

联盟声称，2024年前9个月，中国输美活性阳极材料金额超2.6亿美元，占据美国进口市场份额 超60%，并认定中国进口产品存在828.14% - 920.95%的倾销幅度。 1月7日，应美国负极材料生产商联盟（AAAMP）于2024年12月18日提交的申请，美国商务部 对进口自中国的活性阳极材料(Active Anode Material)发起反倾销和反补贴调查。 本案主要涉及美国海关编码2504.10.5000和3801.10.5000项下产品。美国双反调查所涉及的"活 性负极材料"涵盖了天然石墨、人造石墨、任何含石墨的化合物或混合物。 美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)预计将最晚于2025年2月3日作出反倾销和反补贴产业损害初裁。若 美国国际贸易委员会裁定涉案产品的进口对美国国内产业构成了实质性损害或实质性损害威 胁，美国商务部将继续对本案进行调查并预计于2025年3月13日作出反补贴初裁，2025年5月27 日作出反倾销初裁。 该联盟要求对中国进口的锂离子电池负极石墨产品征收高达920%的关税。 理由是中国通过大 规模补贴进行低价倾销，导致石墨产能过剩，价格紊乱，并对美国本土生产商造成了冲击。尽 管当前已存在2 ...