南都讯记者潘珊菊 莫倩如 发自北京 7月3日，第十三届世界和平论坛开幕式在清华大学举行，日本前首相鸠山由 纪夫出席开幕式并发言。谈及如何看待美国总统特朗普对全世界发动关税战，鸠山由纪夫引用日本一句俗话，"哭 闹的小孩谁也对付不了"，用逻辑或者经济理论去说服特朗普是徒劳的，唯一的选择是争取时间灵活应对。必须尽 一切努力避免让特朗普产生这样的印象，即"只要挑起冲突对方就会让步，并提供足够的补偿"。 鸠山由纪夫建议，日本对美国采取的去风险策略和近年来对华的去风险策略是相似的。减少对美出口依赖的最好 办法就是增加对其他国家的出口。日本的有些公司犹豫与中国公司在海外合作，担心美国的制裁。他称，这里有 无数方法可用，比如建立日本和中国公司的合资企业，比如说在第三国建立，如东南亚国家。此外，日本还应该 加入亚洲基础设施投资银行参与"一带一路"项目。 的人员试行免签政策。 关于关税战的战术应对，他认为，如果特朗普关税措施全面落实，将对日本经济造成严重打击，但还不至于让日 本经济崩溃，"我们只需要做好承受一定痛苦的准备。" 在他看来，特朗普的关税政策可能会让部分美国企业和工人受益，但却会伤害更多美国公司和消费者，应对特朗 普可 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resurgence of the trade war initiated by the U.S., with Trump imposing significant tariffs on various countries, including a 10%-50% tariff range, which is set to take effect after a 90-day grace period ending on July 9 [1][9] - The EU has quickly responded by agreeing to a 10% tariff condition proposed by the U.S. and has exempted certain American goods in hopes of negotiating lower tariffs in specific sectors such as automobiles and semiconductors [3][4] - China, on the other hand, has shown confidence and resilience in the face of these tariffs, leveraging its strong economic foundation and global supply chain relationships to mitigate the impact of U.S. trade policies [4][7] Group 2 - The U.S. trade strategy appears to be aimed at leveraging tariffs to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. while solidifying alliances against China, indicating a shift in global economic dynamics [6][9] - China's approach to the trade war is characterized by a willingness to engage in negotiations while also preparing to stand firm against U.S. pressures, reflecting a broader strategy of enhancing its global trade relationships and increasing the international status of the Renminbi [7][9] - The article notes that the trade war has implications not only for China but also for other countries like Japan, which is observing China's strategies and preparing to respond to U.S. demands, indicating a potential shift in international trade relations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of increased tariffs on U.S. imports, highlighting the scale, regions, and types of goods being imported as a response to tariff changes [4][5][6]. Group 1: Tariff Increases - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose to 7% in April, with projections of 2.3% for 2024. The effective tariff rate on imports from China increased to 37.5% in April, up from 25% in March, and is expected to drop to 10.6% in 2024. For regions outside China, the effective tariff rate rose to 3.9% in April from 1.8% in March, with a forecast of 1% for 2024 [5][9]. Group 2: Scale of Imports - U.S. imports surged by approximately $188.3 billion, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly import value for 2024. This surge indicates a potential drag on import growth of about 9.8% over the next seven months due to demand being pulled forward [6][12]. - The share of air freight in U.S. imports increased significantly, peaking at 37.1% in the first quarter of the year, compared to an annual average of 27.6% for 2024, before slightly declining to 31.5% in April [6][12]. Group 3: Sources of Imports - The primary regions contributing to the increase in U.S. imports include the Eurozone, ASEAN, Taiwan, Australia, and India, which collectively accounted for an 11 percentage point increase in year-on-year import growth [7][15]. - The air freight share from Australia, the Eurozone, India, Vietnam, and Taiwan saw significant increases, although there was a decline in April for Australia and the Eurozone, indicating a potential decrease in import momentum from these regions [15][20]. Group 4: Types of Goods Imported - The main categories of goods that U.S. companies have been importing include electronic products, pharmaceuticals, and raw metals, which together contributed 18.5 percentage points to the year-on-year import growth from January to April [8][23]. - In April, while the growth rates for pharmaceuticals and raw metals slowed, electronic products continued to show strong demand, contributing 4.1 percentage points to the overall import growth [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy, particularly in the context of overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1] Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities in M&A - Despite numerous challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border M&A projects that exhibit industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - Key issues in cross-border M&A include policy compliance, financing costs, and transaction structures, which have become central topics for companies [1] Group 2: Event Information - An offline seminar hosted by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) will take place in Beijing on July 10, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:30 [2] - The agenda includes various thematic discussions, such as a review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year and observations on recent outbound activities of Chinese enterprises [2] Group 3: Speakers and Expertise - Notable speakers include: - He Jia, Head of M&A at China Galaxy Securities, with 22 years of investment banking experience [4] - Liu Weiming, an economist and institutional investor known for his macroeconomic research [5] - Liu Chengwei, a partner at Global Law Firm, specializing in M&A and capital markets [6] - Feng Kai, Senior Investment Banking Data Manager at LSEG, with 16 years of experience in transaction data [7] - Ling Yufeng, Senior Client Learning Manager at LSEG, with expertise in financial information solutions [8]

Tariff Impact - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. surged to 7% in April 2025, up from 2.3% in 2024, with the rate for imports from China reaching 37.5%[6] - By May 2025, the overall tariff rate further increased to 8.7%[6] Import Surge - U.S. imports exceeded historical trends by approximately $188.3 billion from December 2024 to May 2025, representing 68.6% of the average monthly import value for 2024[6] - The import growth rate is expected to be negatively impacted by about 9.8% in the remaining months of 2025 due to this surge[6] Import Sources - Major regions contributing to the import surge include the Eurozone, ASEAN, Taiwan, Australia, and India, collectively boosting U.S. imports by 11 percentage points in the first four months of 2025[6] - In April 2025, the import growth from these regions was approximately 5.7 percentage points, while the Eurozone's contribution turned negative, detracting 0.1 percentage points[6] Import Methods - Air freight imports surged to 37.1% in January to March 2025, significantly higher than the annual average of 27.6%, before dropping to 31.5% in April[6] - The increase in air freight usage indicates a strategy to expedite imports before tariffs took effect[6] Product Categories - The primary products imported during this period were electronics, pharmaceuticals, and raw metals, which together accounted for an 18.5 percentage point increase in overall import growth from January to April 2025[12] - In April 2025, electronics alone contributed 4.1 percentage points to the import growth, while pharmaceuticals and raw metals also showed significant increases[12]

日本的汽车关税成死结。历经七轮磋商，核心的汽车关税问题仍无解。特朗普近日更"敲打"日本说，他 可以对从日本进口的商品征收"30%或35%或任何我们确定的数字"的关税，施压意图明显，日本汽车业 面临严峻考验。接下来要看日本汽车产业界是否会"松口"了。 7月9日，这个看似普通的日子，正成为悬在美国对外贸易头上的"达摩克利斯之剑"。这一天，是特朗普 政府给予主要贸易伙伴的"对等关税"90天缓征期的截止日。当初"90天签90项协议"的豪言犹在耳畔，如 今谈判桌上却仅添英国一笔，谈判僵局如何破解？这不仅关乎全球供应链，更将美国自身置于经济与外 交的双重压力之下。 首先，盟友们纷纷"翻脸"，多国民间掀起了"抵制美国货"的运动；其次，累及美国旅游业，《华盛顿邮 报》称，对美国总统特朗普的贸易政策和好战言论感到担忧的外国游客，纷纷取消赴美旅行计划；再 次，美国国际形象断崖式下滑。世界各地民众对美国形象的评价大幅下滑，特别是美国的传统盟友和邻 国，对美国的"好感度"骤降，其自私自利、霸道霸凌的行径暴露无遗，正加速西方盟友体系的离心离 德。 另外，美国挥舞"关税大棒"一通操作下，美国自身的经济表现真的变好了吗？ 美国贸易逆差的格 ...

Tariff Impact - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose to 7% in April, with projections of 2.3% for 2024, and specific rates of 37.5% on imports from China and 3.9% from other regions[2] - By May, the overall tariff rate further increased to 8.7%[3] Import Surge - U.S. imports exceeded historical trends by approximately $188.3 billion from December 2024 to May 2025, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly imports in 2024[3] - Air freight imports surged to 37.1% in January-March 2025, compared to an annual average of 27.6%[4] Source Regions - Major sources of increased imports include the Eurozone, ASEAN, Taiwan, Australia, and India, contributing 11 percentage points to the 19.3% year-on-year growth in U.S. imports from January to April 2025[4] - In April, the overall import growth rate fell to 1.9%, with ASEAN, Taiwan, and India still showing strong contributions[4] Product Categories - The primary products imported include electronics, pharmaceuticals, and raw metals, which collectively contributed 18.5 percentage points to the overall import growth of 19.3% from January to April 2025[5] - In April, electronics maintained a high growth rate, contributing 4.1 percentage points to the import increase, while pharmaceuticals and raw metals saw a decline in growth rates[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the so-called "reconciliation agreement" between the US and China is more of a public relations effort by the US rather than a genuine resolution of deep-seated economic conflicts [1][8] - The agreement primarily focuses on China's expedited rare earth exports to the US in exchange for the US lifting trade restrictions, highlighting the US's strategic dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies [1][3] - The US Secretary of Commerce confirmed that the agreement is essentially a refinement of the Geneva consensus from May, rather than a new comprehensive trade deal, indicating a contradiction in the US's portrayal of the negotiations [1][3] Group 2 - China's response to the agreement emphasizes procedural justice and the need for official confirmation, indicating that the export of rare earths will not be unrestricted and that China has alternative supply agreements in place [3][6] - The US is under significant domestic pressure to demonstrate progress in trade negotiations, particularly with upcoming midterm elections, which may influence its approach to tariffs and trade agreements [5][6] - The core issues of the trade conflict remain unresolved, with the US retaining additional tariffs on certain products and China insisting that unilateral tariffs violate WTO rules, suggesting that the potential for renewed tensions exists [6][8]

美国妄图利用关税战让世界低头的妄想终究是落空了。 虽然特朗普开出了90天的"关税宽限期"。但由于美国的要求实在太多、太苛刻、太过分，眼下距离宽限 期截止还剩最后7天，除了英国几乎没人愿意为特朗普的异想天开买单。 尤其是身为"南亚一哥"的印度，也对特朗普划出了2条红线，让美国难堪不已。印度财长在最新发声中 强调，农业和乳制品领域是印度不容逾越的两条红线，印度不会通过牺牲本国农民的利益来迎合美国。 农业：印度的国家根本 提起印度，大多数人想起的也许是脏、乱、差的街道，目光呆滞的国民以及满大街溜达的印度教"神 牛"。但不可否认的是，印度是世界上屈指可数的农业大国，农业产值长期位居世界前列。 尤其在印度人均收入低、贫富差距大的前提下，农业更是印度底层人民的安身之本，一旦触及到印度农 民的切身利益，印度政府将面临巨大的执政压力。 例如在2024年2月份爆发的印度北部农民抗议活动，就是因为印度农民不满印人党当局对农民的政策不 照顾，导致二百多个农民团体组织抗议队伍开着拖拉机、汽车、挖掘机、吊车"挺进新德里"，给印人党 当局带来极大的震慑。 而特朗普此轮关税战的一大主要目的，就是要求有关国家放开对美国的农产品进口限制，像印 ...

Group 1 - The forum aimed to provide a high-end platform for Chinese companies to tackle challenges in going global amidst deep restructuring of global supply chains [1] - The discussion highlighted the importance of understanding the dynamics of US-China relations and the implications for Chinese enterprises seeking to expand internationally [1][2] Group 2 - The concept of the Thucydides Trap was debated, with experts arguing that a direct conflict between China and the US is unlikely due to the catastrophic consequences of war [2] - The US is perceived to be haunted by two nightmares: the fear of China surpassing it and the fear that a powerful China would seek global dominance, which experts argue is unfounded [3] Group 3 - Chinese companies are encouraged to champion free trade as a means to secure their international presence, contrasting with the US's recent shift away from free trade principles [3][4] - The trade volume between China and the US has significantly increased over the past two decades, indicating a complex interdependence that is difficult to alter [4] Group 4 - The ongoing tariff war initiated by the US is viewed as ultimately self-defeating, as tariffs are primarily borne by American consumers rather than foreign entities [4] - Chinese companies are urged to capitalize on the current situation, as losing the trade war could jeopardize decades of economic progress [4] Group 5 - Chinese enterprises are advised to adopt a more strategic approach to international expansion, learning from successful foreign companies operating in China [5] - Successful international ventures require understanding local markets and consumer preferences, as demonstrated by the examples of Chinese food brands adapting to foreign tastes [5] Group 6 - The overarching message is for China to focus on internal development and stability while contributing positively to global trade and economic cooperation [6] - Emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong domestic foundation, the experts advocate for a steady and cautious approach to international engagement [6]