【环球网财经综合报道】近期全球市场受关税政策扰动加剧，A股波动显著，避险情绪升温。多家头部券商与公 募基金密集发声，围绕权益市场、行业配置、宏观政策及资产布局展开深度研判。机构普遍认为，短期避险需求 下红利资产、债市及黄金或成资金"避风港"，而科技成长与内需消费板块的中长期配置价值正逐步显现。 在权益市场方面，中信证券指出，关税风波下风险资产承压，债市走牛逻辑清晰，具备高股息属性的红利资产或 成资金抵御波动的核心选择。中金公司李求索认为，中国资产中期机会大于风险，若政策应对得当，市场风险溢 价有望继续好转，短期建议以红利低波为主，中期关注AI产业回调后的布局机会。华夏基金强调，尽管关税争端 持续扰动市场，但中国科技企业的供应链韧性较强，以AI终端与应用为核心的产业趋势未改，本轮调整或带来年 内最佳买点。 在行业配置方面，申万宏源分析称，央企凭借稳定的国内市场需求、高ROE及抗关税冲击能力，当前具备显著配 置价值。中庚基金指出，中美关税博弈推升国内农产品价格预期，农林牧渔行业短期受益；而新能源板块因海外 需求不确定性承压，市场避险情绪升温。 此外，中金公司预计，二季度货币政策放松或加快，资金利率中枢下行将支撑债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the logic behind the bond market rally is clear, and dividend assets with defensive attributes in the stock market may become the core safe haven for capital against the "tariff storm" [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration officially implemented the "reciprocal tariff" policy, triggering a global capital risk-averse mode [1] - Risk assets have experienced significant declines, while safe-haven assets have emerged as the biggest winners [1] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped sharply, with China's bond market breaking a nearly quarter-long stalemate [1] - The yield on the 10-year Chinese government bond approached a previous low of 1.6% [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - From an allocation perspective, the logic for a bond market rally is evident, suggesting a high probability of a bullish trend [1] - Dividend assets in the stock market, characterized by defensive properties, are expected to resonate with the strong catalyst of the tariff storm and solid dividend fundamentals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of new dividend indices by China Securities Index Company reflects the growing demand for dividend assets in the A-share market, driven by improving dividend behaviors among listed companies [1][4]. Group 1: New Indices and Their Characteristics - The newly released indices include the CSI A500 Dividend Index, CSI A500 Low Volatility Dividend Index, and CSI A500 Dividend Growth Index, aimed at enhancing the dividend index investment ecosystem [1]. - The CSI A500 Dividend Index focuses on high dividend yield stocks, while the Low Volatility Dividend Index selects stocks with high dividends and low volatility, and the Dividend Growth Index emphasizes continuous dividends and high yields [1][2]. - The adjustment cycles for these indices are set at six months, with specific limits on the proportion of adjustments for each index [2]. Group 2: Industry Distribution and Coverage - The CSI A500 Dividend Growth Index covers the most industries, with 11 primary sectors, including Industrial (29.55%), Financial (22.58%), and Consumer Staples (18.75%) [2]. - The CSI A500 Dividend Index and Low Volatility Dividend Index cover 7 and 10 primary sectors respectively, with Financial, Industrial, and Consumer Discretionary being the top sectors [2]. Group 3: Dividend Trends and Market Conditions - In 2024, the total dividend payout by A-share listed companies reached a record high of 2.4 trillion yuan, with an average payout ratio of 37.7%, up by 2.5 percentage points from 2023 [4]. - Over 1,800 companies have paid dividends for five consecutive years, and nearly 800 have done so for ten years, indicating a strong trend in dividend payments [5]. Group 4: Investment Environment and Policy Support - The low interest rate environment enhances the long-term investment value of dividend assets, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to a historical low of 1.82% [6]. - Regulatory policies have been introduced to strengthen dividend constraints for listed companies, including the incorporation of cash dividends into market value management tools [6][7]. - The combination of supply-side incentives for companies and demand-side enthusiasm from investors creates a favorable market environment for dividend assets [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with a significant divergence in risk appetite among investors. High-growth companies are becoming focal points for institutional investment as they report strong earnings forecasts, while defensive assets and consumer sectors are also attracting attention due to their stability in uncertain market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Institutional Strategies - The recent surge in market volatility has led to a shift in institutional strategies, focusing on high-growth stocks and defensive assets. Funds are particularly interested in sectors supported by policy and those with low valuations [2][11]. - Notable high-growth stocks such as Limin Co. and Yinglian Co. have seen significant price increases, with Limin Co. expected to report a net profit growth of 1504.79% for Q1 [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance Highlights - Limin Co., which specializes in agricultural chemicals, anticipates a non-GAAP net profit growth of 985.99% to 1199.85% in Q1, driven by rising product prices and increased sales [3]. - Yinglian Co. projects a net profit of 7.5 million to 11 million yuan for Q1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 459.28% to 720.28%. The company attributes this growth to successful market expansion and improved margins on its products [4][5]. Group 3: Fund Activity and Stock Holdings - Fund managers have increased their holdings in high-growth stocks like Yinglian Co., with 11 public funds acquiring a total of 158,150 shares by the end of 2024, indicating a growing interest in this stock [8]. - Limin Co. has also seen a rise in institutional interest, with 59 public funds holding a total of 6,393,759 shares by the end of 2024, compared to only two funds in the previous year [9]. Group 4: Investment Focus and Recommendations - Investment firms are recommending a focus on domestic demand and dividend-paying assets, particularly in light of ongoing tariff uncertainties. They suggest that sectors with lower exposure to U.S. trade may outperform in the current environment [11][12]. - There is a consensus among fund managers to prioritize sectors such as financials, real estate, and new consumer trends, as well as to consider opportunities in industries with strong pricing power and high margins [11][12].

- The "CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index" was launched by the China Securities Index Company in 2024 to optimize traditional dividend stock selection logic through dynamic screening mechanisms and volatility control rules[2][32] - The index selects 50 stocks with continuous dividends and high expected dividend yields, using a "expected dividend yield" selection method combined with a dividend yield and volatility weighting mechanism to avoid the "high dividend trap" and ensure selected stocks have stable dividend capabilities and low volatility[2][32][39] - The index's construction process includes selecting stocks with continuous dividends over the past three years, calculating the expected dividend yield based on disclosed cash dividend plans, and weighting by the ratio of dividend yield to volatility[39][41] - The index has shown superior performance with higher annualized returns, lower volatility, and smaller maximum drawdowns compared to other dividend indices, demonstrating its value in long-term asset allocation[2][33][37] Model Performance Metrics - CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index, annualized return: 19.66%, annualized volatility: 24.60%, Sharpe ratio: 0.88, maximum drawdown: 64.82%[37] - Dividend Low Volatility 100 Total Return Index, annualized return: 17.87%, annualized volatility: 24.47%, Sharpe ratio: 0.81, maximum drawdown: 64.02%[15][37] - CSI Dividend Total Return Index, annualized return: 14.14%, annualized volatility: 25.86%, Sharpe ratio: 0.75, maximum drawdown: 72.13%[15][37] - CSI All Share Total Return Index, annualized return: 11.00%, annualized volatility: 26.29%, Sharpe ratio: 0.50, maximum drawdown: 71.48%[15] Factor Construction and Evaluation - The "expected dividend yield" factor is constructed by calculating the dividend yield based on disclosed cash dividend plans and adjusting for stock price at the end of April[39][41] - The factor is evaluated positively for its ability to avoid the "high dividend trap" and ensure selected stocks have stable dividend capabilities and low volatility[2][39] - The index's weighting method, which uses the ratio of dividend yield to volatility, effectively controls annualized volatility and enhances risk-adjusted returns[39][41] Factor Performance Metrics - CSI Smart High Dividend Strategy Index, dividend yield: consistently higher than other dividend indices during the period from September 30, 2024, to March 31, 2025[38] - The index's constituent stocks have a net asset return rate of approximately 10.5% and the lowest asset-liability ratio among compared dividend indices, indicating high profitability and low debt risk[54][56]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a rebound due to multiple positive factors, including state-owned capital increases, central bank and foreign ministry statements, and company stock buybacks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Rebound Factors - The market saw a collective rise in major indices, with significant contributions from the agricultural, consumer, and liquor sectors, while export-oriented industries like machinery and automotive parts faced declines [3]. - The establishment of the China Stabilization Fund and the active participation of state-owned funds, including a notable 80 billion yuan increase from China Guoxin, are expected to stabilize the market [4]. - Several companies, including major state-owned enterprises and automotive industry leaders, announced stock buybacks totaling over 30 billion yuan, which is seen as a move to boost market confidence [6]. Group 2: Government and Institutional Support - The central government and social security funds have committed to increasing their investments in domestic stocks, with the central bank emphasizing its role in maintaining market stability [4]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a strong statement against potential U.S. tariffs, indicating China's readiness to respond firmly to external pressures [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical analysis shows that after significant declines, A-shares often rebound sharply, supported by policy interventions and market stabilization efforts [11][12]. - The report suggests that the current market environment, characterized by increased domestic demand and a shift towards local production, presents opportunities for investors, particularly in consumer and technology sectors [9].

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The new round of tariffs in the U.S. exceeds market expectations, with specific tariffs of 10% on all countries and higher rates on major trading partners: 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, 34% for China, and 46% for Vietnam[11] - High tariffs are likely to push U.S. inflation higher and may lead to stagflation or recession, impacting Federal Reserve policies[16] - Following the announcement, the U.S. dollar index weakened, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.2% to around 4.0%[11] Group 2: Market Reactions and Strategies - Global capital markets are experiencing increased risk aversion, with major stock indices declining; the Ho Chi Minh Index fell by 6.7%, and U.S. stocks dropped approximately 10% over two trading days[11] - A-shares show resilience compared to other markets, indicating potential investment opportunities[11] - Short-term focus should be on tariff immunity and high-performing sectors, including banking, utilities, food and beverage, and social services[1] Group 3: Policy Responses and Economic Outlook - China's external demand is under pressure, necessitating proactive policy measures; the manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, indicating a slight recovery but still in a bottoming phase[21] - The 2025 fiscal policy is expected to be more aggressive, with a budget deficit target of 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, the highest in recent years[35] - Potential risks include the effectiveness of domestic demand support policies and the possibility of further U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods[51]

Group 1 - The report indicates that April may open a configuration window for dividend assets, benefiting from the approaching US tariff policy and concerns over earnings disclosures, leading to increased market volatility in March [2][3][8] - The report anticipates an influx of approximately 116 billion yuan in new insurance premiums, which will gradually convert into actual investments in dividend assets [3][8] - The AH dual-market rotation strategy aims to construct a more favorable dividend+ portfolio, with a focus on enhancing overall returns through the analysis of driving factors for A-shares and H-shares [9][10] Group 2 - The AH dividend rotation strategy for April emphasizes a significant preference for Hong Kong dividend assets, with a proposed allocation of 5% to A-share dividends and 95% to Hong Kong share dividends [9][10] - The report identifies five major driving factors, including the US disturbance index and seasonal effects in H-shares, which significantly influence the AH dividend rotation indicators [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) has seen significant growth in trading volume and assets, indicating strong investor interest and potential resilience in the face of external uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of April 3, 2025, the trading volume of the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF reached 59.7841 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.68% [1]. - The latest asset size of the ETF reached 1.276 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1]. - In the past two weeks, the ETF's shares increased by 39 million, demonstrating substantial growth [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - In the last five trading days, the ETF attracted a total of 17.5734 million yuan in inflows [2]. - Analysts suggest that uncertainties surrounding overseas tariffs and supportive domestic policies in finance and consumption sectors could enhance the appeal of Hong Kong dividend assets [2]. - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility Index, which the ETF closely tracks, boasts a dividend yield of 7.42%, indicating strong income potential despite short-term market volatility [2].

Core Viewpoints - The performance of major asset classes as of March 31, 2025, shows gold leading with a year-to-date (YTD) increase of 19.3%, followed by LME copper and crude oil, while the Chinese stock market remains relatively strong despite a high-low switch in structure [1][12][13]. Group 1: Asset Performance - As of March 31, 2025, the ranking of major asset classes is gold > LME copper > crude oil > Hang Seng Index > 0 > CSI 300 > China bond > Euro index > Hang Seng Tech > US dollar > Nikkei > Dow Jones > NASDAQ [1][12]. - Gold reached a new high in March, with a YTD increase of 19.3% and a maximum drawdown of only 3%, indicating the best risk-reward ratio among major assets [1][12]. - The global stock indices continued a "risk-off" sentiment, with the US stock market experiencing a significant increase in the fear index, while the Chinese stock market showed a relatively strong performance [1][12][18]. Group 2: Macro Trading Themes - The macro trading themes in March 2025 revolve around four core clues: the gradual confirmation of economic recovery, uncertainty in external tariffs, a continued "risk-off" sentiment in global risk assets, and heightened risk aversion leading to strong performance in gold and silver [2][62]. - The economic foundation is slowly confirming an upward trend, with cyclical assets and interest rate levels generally rising [2][62]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The domestic manufacturing PMI, service PMI, and construction PMI for March 2025 rose to 50.5%, 50.3%, and 53.4%, respectively, indicating a stable start to the first quarter [3][72]. - The model predicts a March CPI increase of -0.04% month-on-month and +0.27% year-on-year, while PPI is expected to be -0.09% month-on-month and -2.19% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in CPI and continued weakness in PPI [3][76][79]. Group 4: Future Drivers for Equity Assets - Upcoming economic data for the first quarter and more corporate earnings reports are expected to provide a verification period for macro and micro fundamentals, with a significant impact anticipated from the technology sector [4][96]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in April is expected to clarify economic impacts, while policy measures are likely to continue to heat up, providing a favorable window for potential interest rate cuts [4][96][97]. Group 5: Timing Signals - The "M1-BCI-PPI timing system" indicates an improvement in timing signals for the CSI 300 index from +0.169 to +0.353 for the period from mid-April to mid-May 2025, suggesting a positive outlook for equity assets [5][100]. - The stock-bond ratio has returned to a more normalized range, indicating that the previous extreme safety margins in the stock market have been consumed, and future performance will be more critical [6][9]. Group 6: Sector Performance - Approximately 55% of the 31 industries recorded positive returns in March, with cyclical and consumer sectors leading the gains, while previously high-performing technology sectors experienced corrections [40][47]. - The real estate market shows overall stability but with increasing structural differentiation, particularly in first-tier cities where transaction volumes are relatively high [47].