Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, driven by a combination of trend inertia, seasonal effects, and policy environment support [3] Market Characteristics - The A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, exhibiting a complex overall pattern characterized by clear trends, numerous short-term disturbances, and significant structural differentiation [1] - The core driving force for the market's upward trend is the self-propelling nature of the market, supported by regulatory measures to mitigate risks and prevent overheating [1][3] - Key support for the market's upward movement includes improving corporate profit outlooks, increased willingness of residents to invest savings, and ongoing policies to optimize industry competition [1][2] Short-term Market Dynamics - Short-term market fluctuations are influenced by holiday effects, with some funds opting to secure profits before the Lunar New Year, leading to a temporary decrease in trading activity [2] - The performance of U.S. tech giants, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical events indirectly affect the rotation of A-share industries [2] Investment Strategy - Post-Spring Festival, the investment logic will focus on "value supporting growth," with a shift from low-risk to high-risk preferences, emphasizing technology and cyclical price increases [5] - Five main investment lines are suggested: 1. AI industry chain focusing on application breakthroughs [5] 2. High dividend assets in stable cash flow sectors [5] 3. Anti-involution sectors benefiting from improved competition [5] 4. Core areas of domestic demand recovery, particularly in health and travel sectors [6] 5. Investment opportunities in strategic and industrial metals [6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "red envelope market" post-Spring Festival, with potential for further expansion due to the current market's performance being below historical averages [3] - The growth of the A-share market is anticipated to be independent of the overall yearly trend, with a focus on technology growth while balancing risks across multiple sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, driven by a combination of trend inertia, seasonal effects, and policy environment support [3] Market Characteristics - The A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, exhibiting a complex overall pattern characterized by clear trends, numerous short-term disturbances, and significant structural differentiation [1] - The core support for the market's upward trend includes improving corporate profit prospects, increased willingness of residents to invest, and ongoing policies to reduce competition [1][2] Short-term Market Dynamics - The pre-Spring Festival period has led to a temporary decline in market activity as some funds opted to secure profits amid uncertainty, but this has not altered the core market trend [2] - Historical data shows that since 2009, the average spring market rally has lasted 57 days with an average increase of over 20% [2] Investment Strategy - Post-Spring Festival, the investment logic will focus on "value supporting growth," with a shift from low-risk to high-risk preferences, emphasizing technology and cyclical sectors [4] - Five key investment themes are recommended: 1. Artificial intelligence industry chain, shifting focus from hardware to application [5] 2. High dividend yield assets, particularly in stable cash flow sectors like white goods and banking [5] 3. Anti-involution sectors benefiting from improved competition dynamics, such as coal and steel [5] 4. Core areas of domestic demand recovery, focusing on sectors with strong growth potential like health and tourism [6] 5. Investment opportunities in strategic and industrial metals, anticipating a rebound in prices [6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "red envelope market" post-Spring Festival, with potential for further expansion if consumer data exceeds expectations [3] - The overall market is projected to maintain a "stable and upward" characteristic, with limited downside potential for indices [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 以不变应万变 2026年2月可转债投资策略 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 王明路 A0230525060003 徐亚 A0230524060002 2026.02.06 本轮可转债主升浪下，可转债估值扩张更加明显 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 26年开年可转债行情估值驱动更加显著。本轮主升浪相对25Q3而言，转债指数上涨更快，同时涨的也更高；但是本轮主 升浪期间，上证指数上涨幅度不及25Q3，同时万得可转债正股等权指数、正股加权指数本轮上涨幅度也落后于上一轮， 这反映了本轮可转债行情估值驱动更加显著。 ◼ 股性转债的余额加权转股溢价率估值提升11.66%（25Q3期间提升6.30%），同时平价较高区间的估值提升的更加明显， 比如平价在110~120、120~130、大于130的转债本轮余额加权转股溢价率分别提升15.64%、8.64%、6.22%相对25Q3 主升浪期间提升3.00%、5.62%、5.73%显著扩大；与之类似的是，本轮长剩余期限的转债的估值普遍获得较大幅度提升， 而上一轮主升浪期间不同期限的可转债的估值涨跌不一，不具有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Equity still has allocation value, waiting for the conversion from valuation-driven to earnings-driven [6] - In 2026, the basis central tendency may rise slightly, but the volatility remains relatively high [7] - In 2026, the equity market is expected to shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven in the benchmark scenario [8] Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review and Macroeconomic Outlook - **A-share Market Review**: In 2025, major broad-based indices all closed up, with the ChiNext 50 leading with a nearly 60% annual increase. Most sectors in the CITIC primary industry index closed up, with the communication index leading with an over 80% increase. The share of equity ETFs increased, and northbound capital and margin trading funds were active [9][17][24] - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: In 2026, overseas liquidity may remain loose, and Sino-US economic and trade relations are in a phase of relaxation. Domestically, policies will be more precise and targeted, with fiscal policy remaining proactive and monetary policy staying moderately loose. Growth factors are expected to improve, and inflation is expected to rise moderately, driving the PPI to recover and improving corporate profitability [27][28][30] 2. Valuation and Drivers - **Steady Return of Chinese Capital Pricing Power**: The influence of US Treasury yields on A-share valuations is gradually weakening, while the impact of Chinese Treasury yields on the growth style is increasing, indicating a strengthening of the pricing power of Chinese Treasury yields for growth stocks [33][38] - **Current Valuation's Historical Position and Horizontal Comparison**: The PE of the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices is at the 64% and 35% historical quantiles respectively, not in a high range. Compared with global indices, A-shares are not expensive. The "Buffett Index" also suggests that the A-share market still has investment value [42][46][50] - **Dividend Yield and Risk Premium**: There is a "seesaw" relationship between the 10-year Chinese Treasury yield and the dividend yield of the dividend index. Currently, the stock market still has strong allocation cost-effectiveness, and the benchmark scenario for the index's upward drive in 2026 is expected to shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven [53][59][63] - **Earnings Growth as a Strong Support for Relatively Strong Indices**: Earnings growth supports the relative strength of corresponding indices. In 2025, the earnings and revenue of small-cap and growth-style indices recovered faster, corresponding to the market style of small-cap growth [64][67][70] 3. Investor Structure and Basis Central Tendency Outlook - **2025 Basis Review**: In 2025, the basis central tendency of most futures index varieties continued to decline, with increased volatility in April. The influence of investor structure changes on the basis is significant, with the basis weakening in the first quarter and the basis central tendency of IC and IM contracts being lower than in previous years in the second half of the year [80] - **Changes in the Position of Public Funds in the Market Investor Structure**: Since 2022, the long-hedging power of public funds has gradually emerged and is currently stronger than the short-hedging power [88] - **Impact of Off-exchange Product Hedging on the Futures Index Basis**: The scale of off-exchange derivatives represented by snowball products decreased significantly in 2025, and their hedging impact is weaker than in the past two years. The long-substitution strategy of public funds is gradually emerging, and the relaxation of the futures index position limit of public funds may make them an important variable in observing the futures index investor structure [79][90] 4. Operation Outlook and Response - **Operation Outlook Scenario Analysis and Market Characteristics**: The benchmark scenario for the 2026 market is that the equity market shifts from valuation-driven to earnings-driven. There are also three other scenarios: earnings and valuation double-driven strength, valuation drag on weakness, and double weakness in earnings and valuation with risk warnings [114][118][119] - **Response Strategies under Different Scenarios**: Under the benchmark scenario, consider long-hedging when the basis is relatively weak. In the stronger scenario, reduce short-hedging. In the weaker scenario, lock in lower short-hedging costs. In the double-weak scenario, increase short-hedging [121][122]

Market Overview - The market experienced high-level fluctuations in September, with significant gains in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, reaching new highs in the current market cycle, while other major indices mainly oscillated [1] - Technology growth sectors such as electric equipment, electronics, and media performed well due to industrial catalysts and benefits from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, whereas military, finance, and consumer sectors showed relatively weaker performance [1] Economic Indicators - Economic data for August showed a continued slowdown, with investment, consumption, and production all underperforming market expectations, indicating increasing economic pressure [1] - Fixed asset investment growth turned negative for two consecutive months, primarily due to declines in real estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure investments [1] - Retail sales growth slowed, and the effectiveness of the "trade-in" policy weakened, while industrial value-added and service production indices maintained over 5% growth, albeit with a deceleration [1] Policy Impact - The recent article by Xi Jinping emphasized the need to address low-price disorder in competition, reinforcing anti-involution policies [1] - The rapid decline in manufacturing investment growth since Q3 reflects the phase of anti-involution, aiming to regulate local government behavior and raise industry thresholds, which may suppress inefficient investments and reduce some demand [1] - While short-term effects may lead to economic contraction, the foundation for price recovery is expected to strengthen, potentially reversing the supply-demand imbalance in the medium to long term [1] Valuation and Market Dynamics - Valuation-driven growth has been the primary force behind the stock market's rise over the past year, with A-share market valuations recovering to high levels [2] - The overall performance growth of A-shares remains low, with valuation increases contributing significantly to market gains, while the divergence between valuation and fundamental expectations poses long-term risks [2] - Future focus should be on improvements in corporate earnings, as the ongoing deepening of anti-involution policies is expected to enhance fundamental market drivers [2] Investment Strategy - The market still has upward potential relative to historical levels, supported by indicators such as stock-bond yield ratios and total market capitalization to GDP [3] - The diversification of household excess savings is gradually unfolding, and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is likely to rebalance global capital flows, benefiting the domestic market [3] - Five key investment themes are highlighted: service consumption with supply advantages, breakthroughs in pharmaceuticals, early-stage growth in artificial intelligence, cyclical leaders benefiting from Fed rate cuts, and consumer goods with strong earnings elasticity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence between economic data and A-share performance indicates a strong stock market driven by improved expectations and declining market interest rates, particularly deposit rates, which have encouraged external capital inflow [1][9]. Economic Indicators - Major economic indicators such as industrial added value and retail sales have shown a slowdown, with industrial growth rates of 6.8%, 5.7%, and 5.2% from June to August, and retail sales growth rates of 4.8%, 3.7%, and 3.4% during the same period [3]. - Fixed asset investment growth has also declined, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 2.8%, 1.6%, and 0.5% from June to August [3]. Market Performance - Since July, the A-share market has seen significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from a range of 3100-3400 points to over 3800 points, marking a nearly ten-year high. The index increased by 12.1%, while the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index rose by 42.4% and 33.6%, respectively, from July 1 to September 15 [1][8]. Valuation and Earnings - Analysts note that the current bull market is primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings, with A-share companies showing weak profit growth of only 2.42% and 0.98% for listed companies and non-financial sectors, respectively, in the first half of the year [6][11]. - The market's risk appetite has increased, contributing to rising valuations, with external factors such as easing trade tensions and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts playing a role [6][8]. Capital Inflow and Liquidity - The decline in deposit rates has prompted a shift of funds from savings to the stock market, with approximately 33 trillion to 60 trillion yuan of excess savings potentially available for investment [9]. - The current three-year deposit rate has fallen below 2%, leading to a "wealth effect" that encourages residents to invest in financial products or the stock market instead of keeping funds in low-yield savings [9]. Market Outlook - Despite recent gains, experts believe that A-share valuations remain reasonable, with the financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization at 2.49%, significantly lower than the 4.7% peak in 2015 [10]. - The market is expected to maintain its upward momentum, supported by favorable conditions across various factors, although some minor corrections may occur [10]. - A sustainable bull market requires effective economic improvement and profit recovery, as the current valuation levels are approaching the upper limits seen since 2016 [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the Chinese capital market is supported by three main pillars: the breaking of economic globalization under a century of changes, the historical elevation of the capital market's positioning since the 20th National Congress, and the risk appetite boost from strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [1] Market Dynamics - The market is currently in the "valuation-driven" phase, focusing on three core themes: hard power (such as military industry), technology to counter "neck-holding" issues, and leading manufacturing companies expanding internationally [1] - Once the market confirms the prospects of China's deepening role in global development, it will shift to a "fundamentals-driven" phase, characterized by diverse performance across sectors as they improve based on enhanced global discourse power [1] Market Assessment - The overall market valuation is deemed reasonable, with market capitalization not aligning with economic status, stable investor sentiment, and diversified institutional holdings reducing the risk of a market crash [1] - The transition from the bond market to the stock market, along with foreign capital inflows, presents significant potential for incremental funding, indicating that the market is still in the early stages of the "valuation-driven" phase [1] - Systematic risks for market fluctuations are considered manageable at this stage [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the long-term narrative of a bull market, suggesting that a 10% annualized return from broad market indices is a reasonable expectation based on historical data [5][6] - Historical performance of major indices such as the CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 indicates significant long-term growth, with the CSI 300 showing a 352.22% increase over 20.78 years and the S&P 500 increasing by 237.13% over 10 years [5][6] - The article emphasizes that a bull market is unlikely to be linear and will be influenced by economic cycles and unexpected events, leading to alternating phases of bull and bear markets [6][7] Group 2 - Economic fundamentals are identified as the cornerstone of a long-term bull market, with earnings growth being a critical driver of index performance [8][10] - The relationship between price (P), earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is explained, highlighting that while valuation can fluctuate, sustained earnings growth is essential for a bull market [9][10] - The article warns against relying solely on valuation increases for market growth, as this can lead to unsustainable price levels without corresponding earnings growth [11][16] Group 3 - The concept of a "slow bull" market is introduced, which is characterized by gradual increases in line with corporate earnings, contrasting with the rapid gains of "fast bulls" [19][20] - The article notes that while a slow bull market is preferable for long-term stability, the current market dynamics may still lead to short-term volatility driven by retail investor sentiment [20][21] - Historical data shows a decreasing trend in the amplitude of market fluctuations during bull markets, indicating a maturation of retail investor behavior [21][23]

Group 1 - The core driving force of the current bull market is being questioned, whether it is based on fundamentals or valuations [5][20] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a stable inflation environment [3][12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting a positive feedback effect from consumption policies [3][4] Group 2 - Historical analysis of companies like Kweichow Moutai and Yangtze Power indicates that valuation-driven performance often outweighs fundamental performance over the years [6][8] - The stock price performance of Kweichow Moutai shows that valuation contributed in 13 out of 23 years, while performance only contributed in 5 years [6][7] - For Yangtze Power, valuation also played a significant role, with valuation-driven years outnumbering performance-driven years [8][10] Group 3 - The A-share market's core driving force is predominantly valuation, with significant liquidity expected to continue supporting the market [11][15] - The monthly trading volume in the A-share market has shown substantial differences, with recent averages exceeding 1.68 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [17][18] - The current total market value to GDP ratio stands at 80.92%, suggesting room for growth in the market [22]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is currently facing inventory pressure, but there are signs of marginal improvement. Power plant inventories are not at yearly highs, and demand for replenishment, reduced imports, and improved daily consumption are expected to stabilize and rebound coal prices from late May to the end of June, although the extent of the rebound is influenced by inventory levels [1][4][27]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Logic Shift**: The investment logic in the coal industry has shifted from cyclical to valuation-driven. The new public offering regulations have increased the focus on dividend assets, leading to stronger capital inflows. The coal sector's allocation ratio is lower than that of the CSI 300, indicating potential for long-term valuation increases in a declining government bond yield environment [1][4][10][28]. - **Supply-Side Reform Impact**: Supply-side reforms have significantly affected the coal industry, stabilizing prices through production limits. However, production and capacity increases are constrained, enhancing price stability. Long-term inflation and rising costs are expected to drive resource prices higher, shifting investment strategies from performance growth to valuation growth [1][8][9]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: The proportion of capital expenditure for new capacity has decreased, with stricter safety and environmental requirements limiting new supply elasticity. The long-term contract pricing mechanism (base price of 675 RMB/ton) ensures stable profitability [1][9][20]. - **Coal Price Trends**: Coal prices have been on a downward trend this year, with the Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal coal price dropping to around 617 RMB. Factors influencing this trend include a slowdown in electricity demand growth, the impact of wind and solar energy alternatives, and changes in tariff policies. However, as summer temperatures normalize, total electricity demand is expected to improve, potentially boosting thermal power demand [2][3][13][14]. - **Future Demand and Supply Dynamics**: The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain resilient due to increased coal consumption in the chemical industry and improved coal consumption per unit of electricity. The supply is relatively stable, suggesting that prices may fluctuate around a central point in the medium to long term [3][19]. Additional Important Insights - **High Dividend Assets**: In the context of declining government bond yields, high dividend assets are likely to receive valuation premiums. For instance, China Shenhua's dividend payout ratio is expected to increase significantly, enhancing its attractiveness as a defensive investment [10][12]. - **Market Preferences**: The market's preference has shifted towards technology growth sectors, which has affected the performance of the coal sector within the dividend investment logic. The coal sector's performance has been relatively weak compared to other sectors [13][18]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal for elastic growth, China Shenhua for high dividends, and State Power Investment Corporation for transformation growth. These companies are expected to maintain strong dividend yields and growth potential [23][30][31]. - **Future Price Predictions**: Coal prices are expected to stabilize or rebound from late May to the end of June, with potential fluctuations in July depending on demand conditions. The upcoming peak purchasing season in September and October may also positively impact prices [7][18][27]. - **Focus on Defensive Investments**: Given the current economic uncertainties, high dividend stocks, particularly leading companies in the coal sector, are expected to continue attracting investor interest and maintain high valuation levels [10][12].