一、市场回顾 9月市场整体高位震荡，结构分化明显，和科创板涨幅明显并创出本轮行情新高，其他主要指数以震荡 为主。受产业因素催化的电力设备、电子、传媒等科技成长类行业以及受益于美联储降息的等行业表现 较好，军工、金融、消费等行业表现相对较弱。 二、市场展望： 经济指标向下，市场分化加剧 8月投资、消费、生产等经济数据普遍延续放缓趋势并弱于市场预期，显示经济压力趋于增加。投资端 固定资产投资当月增速连续两个月转负且降幅扩大，主要受地产、制造业、基建投资增速下滑的共同影 响；需求端社会消费品零售总额增速放缓，"以旧换新"政策效果边际弱化；生产端工业增加值和服务业 生产指数均维持5%以上增长，增速环比放缓，是经济增长的重要支撑。在经济下行压力增大的背景 下，市场结构明显分化，受益于市场风险偏好保持高位和产业催化不断增加，科技成长板块维持强势， 但交易拥挤度偏高；顺周期类资产偏弱，反内卷政策效果尚待观察，基本面和价格预期未显著改善。 从股债收益比、A股总市值/GDP、A股总市值/居民存款等指标看，市场相对历史水平仍有上行空间，居 民超额储蓄的多元化配置在逐步展开，美联储降息周期开启有望带动全球资金再平衡，国内市场将持续 ...

记者 张一诺 近期经济数据和A股走势背离：经济数据弱、中报业绩疲软，但股市表现强劲，特别是科技股，以算力为代表的少数科 技股贡献了大盘近一半的涨幅。 对于"股强经弱"的现象，分析人士指出，A股本轮上涨主要源于预期改善、以及市场利率尤其是存款利率下行促进场外 资金入市，从而推动估值水平上升。 不过，他们强调，股价持续上涨还是需要经济基本面的有效改善以及完善的长效机制作为支撑，盈利改善才是股市长牛 的根本动力。目前A股需要的是一个"慢牛"。 Wind数据显示，7月以来，A股持续走强，上证指数成功突破去年10月以来形成的3100-3400点左右的震荡区间，一路涨 至3800点以上，创近十年来新高。7月1日至9月15日，上证指数、创业板指、科创50指数分别上涨12.1%、42.4%和 33.6%。 数据来源：wind 制图：智通财经 同期生产、消费、投资等主要经济指标增速却呈现放缓态势。6-8月，规模以上工业增加值同比分别增长6.8%、5.7%、 5.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比分别增长4.8%、3.7%和 3.4%；6-8月，固定资产投资完成额累计同比分别增长2.8%、 1.6%、0.5%。 数据来源：国家统计局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the Chinese capital market is supported by three main pillars: the breaking of economic globalization under a century of changes, the historical elevation of the capital market's positioning since the 20th National Congress, and the risk appetite boost from strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [1] Market Dynamics - The market is currently in the "valuation-driven" phase, focusing on three core themes: hard power (such as military industry), technology to counter "neck-holding" issues, and leading manufacturing companies expanding internationally [1] - Once the market confirms the prospects of China's deepening role in global development, it will shift to a "fundamentals-driven" phase, characterized by diverse performance across sectors as they improve based on enhanced global discourse power [1] Market Assessment - The overall market valuation is deemed reasonable, with market capitalization not aligning with economic status, stable investor sentiment, and diversified institutional holdings reducing the risk of a market crash [1] - The transition from the bond market to the stock market, along with foreign capital inflows, presents significant potential for incremental funding, indicating that the market is still in the early stages of the "valuation-driven" phase [1] - Systematic risks for market fluctuations are considered manageable at this stage [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the long-term narrative of a bull market, suggesting that a 10% annualized return from broad market indices is a reasonable expectation based on historical data [5][6] - Historical performance of major indices such as the CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 indicates significant long-term growth, with the CSI 300 showing a 352.22% increase over 20.78 years and the S&P 500 increasing by 237.13% over 10 years [5][6] - The article emphasizes that a bull market is unlikely to be linear and will be influenced by economic cycles and unexpected events, leading to alternating phases of bull and bear markets [6][7] Group 2 - Economic fundamentals are identified as the cornerstone of a long-term bull market, with earnings growth being a critical driver of index performance [8][10] - The relationship between price (P), earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is explained, highlighting that while valuation can fluctuate, sustained earnings growth is essential for a bull market [9][10] - The article warns against relying solely on valuation increases for market growth, as this can lead to unsustainable price levels without corresponding earnings growth [11][16] Group 3 - The concept of a "slow bull" market is introduced, which is characterized by gradual increases in line with corporate earnings, contrasting with the rapid gains of "fast bulls" [19][20] - The article notes that while a slow bull market is preferable for long-term stability, the current market dynamics may still lead to short-term volatility driven by retail investor sentiment [20][21] - Historical data shows a decreasing trend in the amplitude of market fluctuations during bull markets, indicating a maturation of retail investor behavior [21][23]

Group 1 - The core driving force of the current bull market is being questioned, whether it is based on fundamentals or valuations [5][20] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a stable inflation environment [3][12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting a positive feedback effect from consumption policies [3][4] Group 2 - Historical analysis of companies like Kweichow Moutai and Yangtze Power indicates that valuation-driven performance often outweighs fundamental performance over the years [6][8] - The stock price performance of Kweichow Moutai shows that valuation contributed in 13 out of 23 years, while performance only contributed in 5 years [6][7] - For Yangtze Power, valuation also played a significant role, with valuation-driven years outnumbering performance-driven years [8][10] Group 3 - The A-share market's core driving force is predominantly valuation, with significant liquidity expected to continue supporting the market [11][15] - The monthly trading volume in the A-share market has shown substantial differences, with recent averages exceeding 1.68 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [17][18] - The current total market value to GDP ratio stands at 80.92%, suggesting room for growth in the market [22]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is currently facing inventory pressure, but there are signs of marginal improvement. Power plant inventories are not at yearly highs, and demand for replenishment, reduced imports, and improved daily consumption are expected to stabilize and rebound coal prices from late May to the end of June, although the extent of the rebound is influenced by inventory levels [1][4][27]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Logic Shift**: The investment logic in the coal industry has shifted from cyclical to valuation-driven. The new public offering regulations have increased the focus on dividend assets, leading to stronger capital inflows. The coal sector's allocation ratio is lower than that of the CSI 300, indicating potential for long-term valuation increases in a declining government bond yield environment [1][4][10][28]. - **Supply-Side Reform Impact**: Supply-side reforms have significantly affected the coal industry, stabilizing prices through production limits. However, production and capacity increases are constrained, enhancing price stability. Long-term inflation and rising costs are expected to drive resource prices higher, shifting investment strategies from performance growth to valuation growth [1][8][9]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: The proportion of capital expenditure for new capacity has decreased, with stricter safety and environmental requirements limiting new supply elasticity. The long-term contract pricing mechanism (base price of 675 RMB/ton) ensures stable profitability [1][9][20]. - **Coal Price Trends**: Coal prices have been on a downward trend this year, with the Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal coal price dropping to around 617 RMB. Factors influencing this trend include a slowdown in electricity demand growth, the impact of wind and solar energy alternatives, and changes in tariff policies. However, as summer temperatures normalize, total electricity demand is expected to improve, potentially boosting thermal power demand [2][3][13][14]. - **Future Demand and Supply Dynamics**: The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain resilient due to increased coal consumption in the chemical industry and improved coal consumption per unit of electricity. The supply is relatively stable, suggesting that prices may fluctuate around a central point in the medium to long term [3][19]. Additional Important Insights - **High Dividend Assets**: In the context of declining government bond yields, high dividend assets are likely to receive valuation premiums. For instance, China Shenhua's dividend payout ratio is expected to increase significantly, enhancing its attractiveness as a defensive investment [10][12]. - **Market Preferences**: The market's preference has shifted towards technology growth sectors, which has affected the performance of the coal sector within the dividend investment logic. The coal sector's performance has been relatively weak compared to other sectors [13][18]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal for elastic growth, China Shenhua for high dividends, and State Power Investment Corporation for transformation growth. These companies are expected to maintain strong dividend yields and growth potential [23][30][31]. - **Future Price Predictions**: Coal prices are expected to stabilize or rebound from late May to the end of June, with potential fluctuations in July depending on demand conditions. The upcoming peak purchasing season in September and October may also positively impact prices [7][18][27]. - **Focus on Defensive Investments**: Given the current economic uncertainties, high dividend stocks, particularly leading companies in the coal sector, are expected to continue attracting investor interest and maintain high valuation levels [10][12].

日本九十年代市场复盘 1 日本九十年代市场复盘：多次下调利率，逐步进入零利率时期 20世纪90年代初期，日本泡沫经济破灭后经济快速下行，随之资产负债表衰退，日本货币政策转向 宽松。 日本央行于1991年7月将政策利率从6%下调至5.5%，同年11/12月各降50BP至4.5%；1992年4 月降到3.75%，7月再降50BP；并于1993年2月降到2.5%。此后2年多的时间内政策利率持续下调， 1995年5月下调为1%，同年9月再次下调至0.5%。1999年，日本央行将利率下降至0%，成为首个进入 零利率时代的央行。 同期日本国债利率呈现明显的下行趋势，以10年期国债收益率为例，1990年9月其收益率高达8%左 右，1998年9-10月则降至1%以下。 2 ▲图表1： 日本九十年代调整政策利率 资料来源：Wind，日本央行，国际清算银行， 野村东方国际证券 注：1998年前用官方贴现率，1998年后用政策利率 ▲图表2： 日本十年期国债利率 资料来源：Wind，日本财务省，野村东方国际证券 消费股基本面及估值变化情况 日本90年代经历了十次利率下调，我们根据此段时间利率下降的幅度和频次将其分为四个阶段。 东证 ...